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How much more realistic do the Texans’ playoff chances feel now compared to Sunday?
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00:00How much more realistic now are the playoffs, right?
00:03Queue up Jim Mora if you need, because it was not too long.
00:08In fact, it was last week that Figgy Fig brought out 90-year-old Jim Mora
00:12bringing back the playoffs, and, you know, we felt like it was apt because
00:15Playoffs?
00:16Thank you, Jim.
00:17We thought it was apt because that's what it felt like this Texas team was, right?
00:20You're just trying to win a game, or really, I think even more aptly,
00:24you're trying to string two together, right?
00:26You would get a win that would look somewhat promising,
00:28and you go on the backside of it all, here we go,
00:30where we don't heed the lessons that we've learned.
00:33We don't come out and look like a good squad, and all of a sudden,
00:36every win is chased with a loss.
00:38Now, you haven't really fixed that as of yet because, obviously,
00:41you get this win, but now you give yourself an opportunity to.
00:44There's a favorable matchup across from you as your eight-point favorite
00:47to at least you opened as that headed into Nashville, right?
00:50And it feels like you guys look like it's a lot more tenable.
00:54The defense looked as solid as possible, and you're able to come back
00:58against a seemingly insurmountable lead.
01:00John Lopez, for you, how much more realistic are the playoffs now?
01:03I think the answer to that question is a question that we can all answer,
01:08and that is, who scares you?
01:09And I'm not talking about just the division.
01:11Who scares you in the AFC?
01:13Here you are, four and five, one game back from the No. 7 seed,
01:18and that is a playoff berth.
01:21Who ahead of you scares you?
01:23Maybe the Patriots?
01:25Maybe the Colts?
01:27I would say yes to the Patriots.
01:29The Colts are an interesting proposition.
01:31Obviously, we keep track of that all season long.
01:34They're an AFC divisional rival, and we do our AFC South,
01:38which allows us to keep tethered to these teams.
01:41That team, they can run the football incredibly well.
01:44We've talked about that time and time again with Jonathan Taylor.
01:47Daniel Jones, he really just needs to operate the offense,
01:50make good decisions.
01:51We're starting to see some of the care things.
01:55Obviously, he had five turnovers a couple weeks ago.
01:57Even in this game, he was not particularly solid,
02:00and teams are finding ways to attack him.
02:01There is a little bit of a crack in the armor.
02:04I don't think it's significant enough to, one, tear them down
02:07when it comes to winning the loss record.
02:08Or to say they're going to implode or something.
02:10Exactly.
02:10But it does make that look a little more interesting.
02:12I think you still have to have a level of respect for them.
02:15But, yeah, I think that when it comes to the word scare,
02:18I don't know how I term that.
02:20I would still probably put the Colts in that scare.
02:21And the Chiefs, I guess, just because of pedigree.
02:25Yeah, no, that is strictly off of pedigree.
02:28They are getting better, don't get me wrong.
02:30I'm not trying to just have a Rolodex.
02:35They have a history of knowing how to get things done
02:37and institutional knowledge, as I would like to call it.
02:39I think that that is probably what scares me more
02:41and a quarterback that you know can take over football.
02:43I guess my ultimate answer, if I were to compare it to, like,
02:47a win probability, which we've all seen, you know,
02:49and the Texans' win probability at 29-10 was very low.
02:52And then, of course, you know, they scored the touchdown
02:54and it goes to very high.
02:55I think the win probability when it comes to the playoffs for the Texans
02:59going into Sunday was, I'm just going to throw a number out there,
03:0335%?
03:05For the playoffs?
03:05Yeah.
03:06It was lower.
03:07You think it was lower?
03:07It was lower.
03:08All right, so let's say 25%.
03:10Their win probability in terms of making the playoffs now,
03:14I think, is over 60.
03:15That is, it's still much lower than that.
03:18You think?
03:19Yeah, you need to take care of business.
03:20Well, because here's the thing.
03:21You have an opportunity to take care of business.
03:23Everybody in front of you, you've already beaten the Jags.
03:26They're directly in front of you in the division,
03:28and they may well implode.
03:29That was a devastating loss, like a devastating loss for the Jaguars,
03:34both in terms of the vibe around the building and certainly their playoff hopes.
03:39So they could implode.
03:41But then you have two against the Colts.
03:42You face basically every contender ahead of you.
03:45You've already beaten the Ravens, and you face every contender ahead of you
03:48outside of the Patriots, of the scary teams, Buffalo, Kansas City.
03:53As I mentioned, the Colts twice, the Chargers.
03:57So I think their playoff probability has vaulted significantly.
04:01When it comes in terms to actual playoff probability,
04:03you have to give me a moment because I know the Athletic has this little
04:06probability kind of tool that you can go in and see play with that probability.
04:14And I think I was indeed playing with that on Sunday.
04:17And I was kind of surprised that they were still,
04:20I guess I shouldn't be surprised,
04:21they're still pretty far away when you talk about the technical percentage chance
04:26of this thing happening.
04:27But I hear what you're saying in that you have an opportunity to control your own destiny.
04:31I think as it has been all season long,
04:34I understand your thought process with the other teams in the AFC
04:39and how each one of them has some fatal flaw that you can absolutely look at
04:43and say that's capitalizable.
04:45And we've seen teams that are lesser than those teams take advantage of those.
04:48First, the question I have is how much do I believe that this Texas team,
04:52as currently constituted, can do what they're supposed to do on any given day?
04:58And then two, how much do I believe that they can go out and execute a game plan
05:01that then attacks another team consistently?
05:04I have a better belief in that after this weekend,
05:07but I can't say that it's by a lot if I'm going to be entirely honest.
05:09Let's be entirely honest.
05:11You're talking about the offense.
05:12Because there is no doubt about the defense.
05:14There is no doubt that the defense is going to be a problem,
05:18a big, big problem for every single team it faces.
05:21So we're talking about the offense.
05:23Absolutely.
05:24That is absolutely the case.
05:25I always feel bad talking about this defense because the bar is so high
05:30that any level of negativity that we can bring feels like it's undue.
05:36There's some instances where they can get a little leaky.
05:38There's been a number of plays where games have been lost on their watch,
05:42oddly enough, even though they've done enough to win.
05:45They've done enough to win, but you've had third and long situations
05:49in a number of circumstances where teams have been able to convert
05:53on to be able to come up and make that play.
05:55So it's odd to then have any level of criticism for this defense
06:01while they're consistently, easily, not only the best part of your team,
06:05but one of the best in the league, if not the best in the league.
06:07But, yeah, I am talking about the offense in large part, right?
06:11We've lamented, we've mourned, you know, performances by this offense,
06:17and then we've seen it go up and down.
06:19I've seen people trying to give Nick Haley a lot of credit in this game,
06:22and he deserves some of it, but I don't know how much of that carries on
06:25week to week.
06:26Yeah.
06:26And that's the tough part about trying to project, right?
06:30I think the way that I view this team oftentimes,
06:32especially through the first half of the year,
06:34and I date back to last season where, you know, people are like,
06:38oh, man, you just need to win.
06:39It doesn't need to look pretty.
06:40And I'm like, I'm not saying it needs to look pretty.
06:42I need to see things that I can use.
06:45It's promising that I can project forward.
06:47Yeah.
06:47This team has given us really weird data on things,
06:50on how you project forward what their performances will be,
06:52and I think that's what it comes down to when you start trying to say,
06:55what does the playoffs look like?
06:56It is attainable.
06:57Like, if you just look at the standings,
06:59you got a 5-4 Kansas City Chiefs team
07:01and now a 5-4 Jacksonville Jaguars team ahead of you,
07:04and that's all it takes to get to a wild card spot
07:05as it's currently constituted.
07:07We know that things are going to shift and change
07:08as games are actually played,
07:10but you are now within, you know, you're within spitting distance,
07:13as some folks would say.
07:14That is encouraging in and of itself,
07:17but there is still a lot of getting yourself right, right?
07:20It's the movie where you see the conventionally unattractive girl
07:26all of a sudden take off her glasses, put her hair down,
07:29she's attractive, right?
07:30Like, there's some of that feel where you go,
07:33I'm just going to work on yourself.
07:34Like, she probably still needs to go to therapy.
07:36That's where this Texas team is, right?
07:37I still need to see some of the difficult work done with this team
07:41until I feel really confident or comfortable
07:43that they have a shot against those players.
07:44No, I could not agree more.
07:46I mean, I'm not sitting here saying, oh, problem solved.
07:50You know, that all of a sudden this is the team
07:53that's just going to vault its way to the top of the division
07:55and everything else.
07:56No, I'm not saying that.
07:57What I'm saying is their probability of doing that
08:00has increased exponentially
08:01because you know what you're getting from the defense.
08:03The offensive line showed a little life,
08:05and the A32 says, what the hell are you talking about, Lopez?
08:09They're going to lose to the Chiefs.
08:10They're going to lose to the Bills.
08:11They're going to lose to the Chargers.
08:13Have you seen the Bills and the Chargers?
08:15I don't know, like this past weekend, did you see the Bills?
08:18The Chargers have been flighty.
08:19They're on a little bit of a roll,
08:20but the whole any given Sunday thing has never been more in play
08:25than with this team this season.
08:27Can I give you the,
08:28because I mentioned the Athletic having like a playoff simulator.
08:32As of right now, with currently what's happening,
08:36their projections of the standings have the Patriots
08:40with the one seed at 13-4,
08:41the Colts 12-5 with the second seed,
08:44the Broncos winning the West 12-5,
08:46the Ravens coming back and winning that North.
08:50Outside of that, the wildcard team,
08:52they have the Chargers, the Bills and the Chiefs
08:54all at 11-6, and the Texans at 8-9.
08:56Yeah.
08:56That is where they,
08:57that is where like the projections have it.
08:59So like they still have even the Jags and Steelers
09:02outside looking in on this.
09:04There's still a lot of work to be done here
09:06to get yourself over it.
09:08But again, you've put yourself in the hunt, right?
09:10After the wits and starts that they've had,
09:15you are, you have an opportunity still.
09:18Yeah.
09:18This season, we are not turning and opening up
09:21Dane Brugler and other mock drafts to start.
09:23You have an opportunity.
09:25That's all you can ask for right at this moment,
09:27or at least this week.
09:29That's all you can maybe try and give yourself
09:30is an opportunity, but there's still work to be done.
09:33There is, there's absolute work to be done.
09:35And I just can't emphasize that enough.
09:37I'm not saying, oh, hey, here we go.
09:40What I am saying is their opportunity is,
09:43is right, not just right in front of them,
09:45but in their control, it's in their control.
09:48Sure.
09:48But I can't get past the things that they need to fix.
09:52Like, hell, even this game, right?
09:54You talk about the way in which the Davis Mills game
10:00has an opportunity to really etch itself
10:02very strongly into Houston Texans lore.
10:05They were doing things that were,
10:08that they haven't done in a long time.
10:10Get this, right?
10:11The overall success rate on design rushes in this game, 55%.
10:15You want to know how good that is for the Texans?
10:18It's the best they've put up since week one
10:21of last year versus the Colts.
10:22You remember the feeling of Joe Mixon in that game?
10:24Yeah.
10:24That was, that game that you saw against the Jaguars?
10:27It was the best since then.
10:28The best that they've done running the football.
10:29How much can you say that that's replicable,
10:32especially when you talk about that being
10:33an important part of this offense,
10:35them going and pushing people,
10:36being an important part of what that
10:37fourth quarter comeback was.
10:38And the idea that you needed a fourth quarter comeback
10:40is something that we can't rush over.
10:43Like, those things are still there.
10:44But at the very least, I am very happy
10:47as somebody, selfishly, somebody who talks about this team,
10:49right, is paid to do that.
10:52That there is still light at the end of the tunnel.
10:55It's not just the little dot at the end of the tunnel.
10:57It still looks somewhat viable,
10:59even if it's not the most plausible.
11:01Viable, and how likely is it?
11:02I mean, who knows?
11:04Is C.D. Sal going to play again?
11:05Because I don't know about that.
11:07And that's one of the things that makes me go,
11:08I'm not going to jump to the place where I go,
11:10oh yeah, this is more likely than not
11:12that they do something.
11:13Because they're still doing stuff
11:14like bringing somebody up to the practice squad
11:16to start over dudes that you had on the active roster.
11:19That's right.
11:20They absolutely are.
11:33.
11:34.
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