00:00Hello and welcome to this Victorian Janesweather update for Friday.
00:04We have got a low pressure system that is crossing the southeast.
00:07Now that is going to have light and patchy rain out ahead of it.
00:10Then I'll have organized showers and thunderstorms.
00:13And then it's going to have a lot of rain for southern Victoria as we wrap around that low as it moves through.
00:19So let's have a look day by day what to expect.
00:21The light and patchy rain becomes organized in the southwest with showers and thunderstorms starting to tend into a band of rain.
00:29By the end of Friday, the low is here off the Gippsland coast.
00:33So we're seeing the wrap around into that.
00:35We've got all of that rain essentially on the backside of that low as it moves through.
00:39That is going to very slowly move eastward.
00:42So let's watch that.
00:43Here we have Saturday.
00:44So there it goes.
00:45Only along the southern parts of Victoria, it rapidly dries up as it moves into the north.
00:50So this isn't a northern Victorian system.
00:53So there's Friday.
00:54There is Saturday.
00:55And there is Sunday.
00:57The continuation of that in through there before it all clears out.
01:01After that, I want to draw your attention to these lines that are over here.
01:05The blues and the purples.
01:06That purple line that is snowed down to 600 metres.
01:09Yes, it is the 10th of November in through here.
01:12But a high back over to our west is going far enough south that's allowing this punch of cold air to come up.
01:18We're not going to feel quite to 600 metres, but just showing you just how cold this blob of air actually is.
01:24We're going to get the top of that as it comes across.
01:26So our next burst of wet weather arrives later on Monday and continues into Tuesday.
01:31Now, the high pressure that is running in through here, that blocks our connection to tropical moisture.
01:36So there is nothing at all pretty much for northern parts of the state in through here.
01:40Again, a southern system.
01:42But this one comes with a punch of cold air.
01:45All right, so that's moving through later Monday into Tuesday.
01:49As you go into Wednesday, there's our high pressure ridge in through here.
01:52Still cold, still wet in Tasmania, but the mainland is missing out.
01:56The next cold punch moves across the southeast on Thursday, but this one is confined to Tasmania.
02:02We've got our high pressure that's in through here.
02:04High pressure after a cold outbreak.
02:07That leads to clearing skies.
02:08It leads to calm winds.
02:10Yes, it is this far into November, but that is the recipe for a late-season frost.
02:15So do watch out for that next week.
02:17We're going to have some very chilly nights to come after that wet weather,
02:20mainly because the wet weather is only in the southern parts of the state.
02:24After that, we look to the northwest.
02:26At the very end of next week, we may have a weather system that comes through Friday into next Saturday,
02:31but the models at the moment have no consistency, no idea.
02:37What's the weather I'm looking for?
02:39They're not in consensus.
02:41That's the word I'm looking for.
02:43They're not in consensus as to where that is going to move at this stage,
02:46so keep checking back to see where that does move.
02:48What might all of this add up to?
02:50We're looking at 25 to 50 millimetres as this moves across through here with locally heavier falls.
02:56In the southwest, not quite as much,
02:58and then you see how quickly it dissipates as it moves across the northern parts of the state.
03:02So we've got that one moving through Friday, Saturday, Sunday,
03:05then the next punch on Tuesday, and then missing out on that one on Thursday,
03:10but we might see some wet weather come down next Friday and Saturday.
03:13All right, so for Melbourne, what does that mean?
03:15Get ready for a temperature roller coaster.
03:17It does rise this afternoon as the light and patchy rain dissipates,
03:20so we get a little bit of a breakout through there.
03:22So here's our norseally winds, but Saturday, yes, this is not a misprint.
03:28This is cold.
03:29This is also rain at times, so it is lots and lots of showers passing through,
03:34tending to steady rain for much of the time.
03:36So Saturday is cold and it is wet.
03:39We also have a gusty southwesterly wind as that racks around the backside of that low.
03:44So Saturday would not be out of place in the middle of midwinter.
03:48So there is Saturday.
03:49Into Sunday, temperatures rise a bit.
03:51There's still heaps of showers that are streaming through.
03:54By Monday, it's dry for much of the day.
03:56Then the next change arrives.
03:58Temperatures jump up and then we're down again for Tuesday.
04:00So Tasmania taking the brunt of that,
04:02but we're certainly going to feel it with showers coming through and only 15.
04:06This is steady rain, which is why it can be quite so cold,
04:09because there's no breaks in it at all.
04:11This has breaks in it and it's only 15,
04:13and the wind chill on that is going to be quite nasty.
04:16As we head into next Wednesday,
04:18that's when we might start to see a little bit of warmth coming back
04:21potentially into the low 20s before a change later on in the week.
04:25As always, head to Farm Alive Weather for the latest.
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