- 2 days ago
This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next 10 days 22/10/2025. As Storm Benjamin clears it will turn chilly this weekend with some hill snow in Scotland, before mixed weather next week. Bringing you this week’s 10 Day Trend is Alex Burkill.
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00:00Hello. Well, you're probably aware that there's some fairly wet and windy weather across southern parts as we go through the end of Wednesday and into Thursday.
00:08But what does next week have in store? Well, let's say it's looking quite changeable.
00:13But currently, the jet stream, it's fairly strong just to the south of the UK.
00:18And it's this jet that's driving a deepening area of low pressure that's pushing across the channel and is going to deepen further as it heads towards the North Sea as we go through, yes, Wednesday into Thursday.
00:29Now, this feature has been named Storm Benjamin, but it was named by Meteor France, the French Meteorological Office.
00:36That's because it's in northern France where we're going to see the greatest impacts, the strongest winds.
00:41Nonetheless, across parts of England and Wales, especially towards the south and the east, there's heavy rain, there's strong winds.
00:48We're talking 30 to 50 millimeters in some places, gusts of 60, perhaps 70, maybe even a little bit stronger than that down the eastern side of the UK.
00:55If you want more information about Storm Benjamin, check our daily weather videos because I want to get on to what the next 10 days have in store.
01:02Later Thursday and as we go into Friday, Benjamin does clear out towards the east, but we end up in the backwash of it.
01:10So there will be some showers still piling in across eastern parts of the country as we go into Friday.
01:16And there are some question marks as to exactly how quickly Benjamin clears away, and that's partly because it hasn't actually deepened fully yet.
01:25And so there's always going to be some uncertainty as to exactly how deep it's going to get and how quickly it's going to move through until it reaches its deepest phase.
01:32As a result, question marks as to exactly how much rain there's going to be over eastern parts of Scotland.
01:39I'll have more information about that in a second.
01:41There's also another cutoff low that develops and that pushes across parts of Northern Ireland, and that will bring some shattery rain across Northern Ireland,
01:49feeding into western parts of England and Wales as we go through Friday as well.
01:53But let's look at that rain across eastern parts of Scotland.
01:56And I mentioned there's some uncertainty about it.
01:59So the Met Office model does want to bring some rain across eastern parts of Scotland,
02:04also brings some showers across parts of Northern Ireland, Wales and Western England too.
02:09Here I have my 36-hour rainfall through the Friday and into Saturday.
02:13And you can see, yeah, it's fairly wet across eastern parts of Scotland.
02:17But ECMWF, the European model, has nowhere near as much rain across eastern parts of Scotland.
02:23Much drier.
02:23Yes, there'll be some rain around, but less likely to be impactful.
02:27However, if we look at GFS, the American model, well, this paints a much wetter picture.
02:32Across northern and eastern Scotland, the rain could be impactful if this came off.
02:36And worth bearing in mind that actually previous Met Office model runs had something a bit similar to the GFS model.
02:43So most likely there will be some wet weather across eastern parts of Scotland.
02:47And probably won't be especially impactful.
02:50But we need to keep a close eye on it because it's not out of the question that Benjamin takes a little bit longer to clear through.
02:57And so we see that rain continuing, pushing a bit further west at times.
03:01And so we could see some impacts from the heavy rain, particularly across northern and eastern parts of Scotland, as we go through Friday and into Saturday.
03:09The other thing that Benjamin does as it clears away is it changes our wind direction.
03:14So as we go through Friday night into Saturday, we're going to end up with a northerly flow bringing cold Arctic air across the country.
03:21Now, as you would expect, that Arctic air is going to lead to our temperatures dropping.
03:26You can really see that cold air plunging its way southwards across most parts.
03:29And there will still be brisk, strong winds around.
03:32Notice the isobars still quite tightly packed because of Benjamin, even though it's clearing away.
03:37And with those blustery winds and that cold Arctic air, well, it's really going to feel quite raw, quite chilly and cold as we go through into this weekend.
03:46Let's look at our freezing level.
03:48With that cold air that's coming through, our freezing level is important.
03:51Now, this is the height of which temperatures are zero degrees above sea level.
03:56And this plays an important role as to whether any precipitation we see comes in the form of rain or sleet and snow.
04:03Now, as we go through the day, you can see the freezing level is dropping across the country.
04:08But notably across parts of Scotland, it's dropping to around 400, 500 metres up.
04:13And we do have high ground higher than that, significantly higher than that.
04:17And so there's a reasonable chance that we're going to see a bit of sleet of snow over the higher ground of Scotland, much less likely further south.
04:25The other thing with that cold air that's coming through on Saturday, it could be quite a chilly start on Saturday morning.
04:31A bit chillier than some recent mornings.
04:33But worth factoring in, still those blustery winds that I mentioned.
04:37And so they'll keep temperatures dropping too low for now.
04:41But nonetheless, a bit of a chilly start could be some isolated pockets of frost where we get clear skies and you're in the shelter from the wind.
04:48But I think what you want to know about is that sleet and snow I mentioned.
04:51As we go through Saturday, then, showers coming down from the north.
04:54Now, they're going to be most frequent in places exposed to that northerly wind.
04:58So across parts of Scotland, also parts of Northern Ireland and North Sea coastal parts, some feeding into coastal parts of Wales and southwest England as well.
05:05But it's across Scotland where there's the greatest chance of seeing some sleet and snow.
05:10Now, it's not going to be especially heavy.
05:12It's not going to be impactful.
05:13It's nothing out of the ordinary for this time of year.
05:15But yes, I think over the highlands, the Grampians, there's a reasonable chance of seeing some sleet, some snow mixed in with those showers.
05:22So if you're heading to the hills, heading to the mountains, maybe you'll see some.
05:26Further south, whilst the freezing level is dropping as well, we're also a bit more sheltered from the northerly wind.
05:36And so we're less likely to see those showers piling in.
05:39So the higher ground over parts of Northern England, less likely to see any sleet of snow.
05:43Maybe over Snowdonia, possibly you could see a little bit, but it's really going to be over the higher ground over northern parts of Scotland, especially.
05:51Now, I have our temperatures on for Saturday here.
05:54They are a little bit lower than during much of this week.
05:57High single figures just about getting into double digits, so a chilly feel.
06:01But when we factor in those winds that I mentioned, well, it's going to feel quite raw.
06:05Some places towards northern and eastern parts of Scotland feeling close to freezing.
06:08And even elsewhere, it's going to be a chilly, markedly changed feel to things compared to what we've had recently.
06:17Then later, Saturday into Sunday, we have kind of a calm setup Saturday night into Sunday.
06:23And we still have that cold air across us.
06:25But through Sunday itself, a weather system is likely to push in from the northwest.
06:29Some uncertainty as to exactly how quickly this is going to arrive.
06:33But nonetheless, it's set to turn things cloudier, a bit wetter, and also lifting our temperatures.
06:38But it's going to take a little while for that to happen.
06:40As a result, Sunday morning looks pretty chilly, probably chillier than on Saturday morning.
06:46Some places, rural areas, could see temperatures several degrees below freezing.
06:50Minus three, minus four, that kind of thing.
06:52And so a bit of frost looks quite likely in rural spots.
06:55And even towns and cities, it's going to feel pretty chilly because there'll be more dry, clear weather around.
07:00And the winds will be slightly lighter than on Saturday morning as well.
07:04But it's going to be a bright, fine start for quite a few places.
07:08A lot of dry weather, just a few showers towards the west.
07:11However, then, with that weather system that's coming in, we are going to see the cloud thickening.
07:16And we're going to see some rain pushing in as well.
07:19As I mentioned, though, there's some uncertainty as to exactly how quickly that's going to push through.
07:24Met Office model brings it in a bit quicker than some of the others.
07:27And so it may take a little bit longer than the graphics behind me suggest for that rain to push across parts of Scotland, Northern Ireland, and into northern and western parts of England and Wales.
07:37Still a chilly feel to things.
07:38I mentioned the temperatures are rising.
07:40But because of the chilly start and the cloud that's then coming in during the daytime, that's going to keep anything from really becoming much milder than on Saturday.
07:50So, again, another chilly day, albeit the winds perhaps are ever so slightly less strong.
07:53So, maybe feeling slightly less raw, I suppose.
07:57But this is the 10-day trend.
07:59So, let's look further ahead and go through what we're expecting through next week, which is half term for many places.
08:05And it's a bit uncertain at times, as you would expect at this time of year with this sort of lead time.
08:10But the most likely setup from the Met Office model has the low pressure that will have pushed through on Saturday, Sunday time to be drifting away towards the east.
08:21And that's the similar setup that we have on Tuesday as well.
08:25And so there'll be some wet weather around, but it doesn't look especially impactful.
08:29Just a bit changeable, really, as we go through the early part of next week and still a bit on the chilly side.
08:35However, as we go towards the middle of the week, and that's when there's a bit more uncertainty, but I think a bit of a transition perhaps between something, the mobile setup that we have to start off with to something a bit quieter during the middle of the week.
08:48But then there's more changeable weather waiting out in the west, and then that's what we take through as we go through Thursday and then also into Friday.
08:57Now, I want to show this in a slightly different way.
09:00In order to do that, I have the Met Office model at the top and then the ECMWF model at the bottom and run them through for next week.
09:08Now, to start off with, not a huge amount of difference.
09:11Low pressure towards the northeast of us and higher pressure trying to build in from the west-southwest.
09:17But as we head towards the middle of the week, that's when we start to see some discrepancies between the two of them.
09:22Now, the Met Office model has low pressure towards the northwest of the UK, pushing across towards the north, and so that goes in line with the idea of some changeable weather towards the northwest.
09:32But there's higher pressure towards the south, so something a bit drier towards the south, quite likely.
09:38ECMWF, however, has that high pressure, that ridge, a bit more amplified.
09:43So that suggests that we could actually have some largely fine, quiet weather as we go through the middle of next week.
09:49And it looks a fair bit quieter than the Met Office model.
09:53But as we run through later on, and there are some differences as to exactly what the low pressures do towards the north of the UK.
09:59But by the end of the week, actually, it looks relatively similar in some respect.
10:04There's low pressure nearby.
10:06But one thing that we can take away from it is whilst the low pressure to the west of the UK, it's a bit closer if we look at Met Office model.
10:13It's a bit further away if we look at ECMWF.
10:16And so, you know, Met Office model would paint it being relatively unsettled, whereas ECMWF would have it a bit quieter.
10:22What they're both in line with is the change in our wind direction, and we'd be dragging in our air from the south.
10:29And so things could warm up.
10:30Things could turn a bit milder as we go through next week.
10:34Now, another way that we can look at all of this, this is our probabilistic pressure trend.
10:38And it shows whether low pressure, high pressure, more likely as we go through the next two weeks.
10:42The blues indicating low pressure generally.
10:45So, you know, fairly standard autumnal weather, there'll be low pressure nearby, mobile setup really, with weather coming in from the west, northwest.
10:53So some rain at times, some blustery winds.
10:54But it doesn't look especially severe.
10:57And actually, the signal weakens, I guess, as you would expect as we go further ahead.
11:01But particularly from the, well, Tuesday onwards, the difference between Monday and Tuesday is quite marked.
11:05So less strong signal for low pressure to be dominant.
11:09We can see that as well if we look at our zonal trends.
11:12So whether our air is coming from the west or from the east.
11:14And again, westerly looks pretty strong to start next week.
11:18But from the middle of the week, it kind of weakens, really.
11:22And so less strong a signal.
11:23But the one that I wanted to highlight, really, is our meridional trend.
11:27So whether our air is coming from the north or from the south.
11:30And we've got it coming from the north at the moment, really so, as we go through into this weekend, which is why temperatures are dropping.
11:36But during the middle part of next week, it looks like it's going to change.
11:40We're going to get southerly flow.
11:42And so that's going to lead to our temperatures rising.
11:45We can also see that if we look at our meteograms from ECMWF for our capital cities.
11:49They drop down well below average.
11:51Let's look at London.
11:52Actually, it paints the story quite nicely.
11:54It drops down well below average as we go through into this weekend.
11:57Saturday, Sunday, both by day and by night will be markedly colder than normal for the time of year.
12:02But as we go through next week, all of them in agreement, and whilst there is some spread, because, you know, you would expect that several week or so away, there's strong signs that we are going to see temperatures really rising as we go through the back end of next week and head towards Halloween.
12:19So, in summary, through next week, quite a mobile setup to start off with, and there probably will be more changeable weather at times as we go through towards the end of the week.
12:28So, yes, some rain, some stronger winds, but also some drier weather.
12:32Perhaps the middle of the week looks a little bit drier and calmer.
12:36And one thing that I'm a bit more confident about is the fact that temperatures are set to rise.
12:40Obviously, with all of that, details will firm up as we get nearer the time.
12:43So, make sure you stay across our YouTube channel, and then you'll never miss one of our updates.
12:48I'll see you again soon.
12:49Bye-bye.
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