'Insurmountable obstacle' of peace plan's phase 2: Positions of Israel, Hamas 'cannot be reconciled'

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00:00Staying in the region and after the release of the last living Israeli hostages and Palestinian

00:04prisoners, the tenuous ceasefire in Gaza appears to be holding and humanitarian aid is slowly

00:10starting to flow back into the enclave. Yet questions remain over other key parts of the

00:16American peace plan for the region. They include when will Hamas return to Israel,

00:23the remaining bodies of the hostages believed to be dead in Gaza, and Israel's insistence

00:28that a weakened Hamas disarm. It comes as clashes between Hamas and opposing clans continue in the

00:36Palestinian coastal territory. Joining me now is Hassan Nemne, a researcher at the Washington

00:42Institute and the Middle East Institute. Hassan, thank you very much for your time. We've seen that

00:47there's many, many sticking points that could derail this ceasefire deal, but let's start with

00:55Hamas in Gaza. There have been clashes between Hamas' government and other Gaza clans. We've seen

01:00public execution of Hamas' opponents who've been described as so-called Israeli collaborators.

01:07Now, amid this backdrop, restoring law and order is critical. So how can that be done quickly?

01:16Unfortunately, what we see is the Gaza version. Gaza, not just after the war, but even prior to the

01:24Gaza version, the Gaza version of restoring law and order, because we all remember that Yahya Senwar,

01:32the Hamas leader, actually had instituted a policy of no mercy vis-à-vis anyone who engages in

01:41collaboration with Israel. And the attack on a number of militias, of clans that has happened from the part of

01:52Hamas just after the end of the war is a continuation of that. There's no tolerance for any collaboration,

01:59and this is meant to be a lesson for everyone else. So I do not expect that to continue for long, because

02:09these were a minority to start with. And indeed, there were many abuses on their part and many actions

02:16on their part. This is not a popular uprising against Hamas, even though evidently Israel would

02:22like to portray it as such. But the fact of the matter, to a large extent, these are opportunists.

02:29I mean, one has to underline the fact here that some of them, many of them collaborated with ISIS

02:36at some point. ISIS, Israel, whatever opportunity arises. But nonetheless, grievances against what Hamas

02:45has done, what Hamas is doing continue. But I think this is a sideshow compared to what will happen next.

02:53What happens next is indeed the whole issue of disarmament, because what Hamas is demonstrating by this

03:00crackdown on any formation that Israel has left behind, is that it is able not just to subdue them,

03:08but to maintain its version of law and order across the Gaza Strip. And that underlines the fact,

03:15is it weakened? For sure it is weakened, but not enough to summon it to surrender its weapons.

03:21And there's been talk of an international force on the ground. If indeed that is the case, who are they likely to be?

03:32Again, even those countries that have expressed a willingness to participate in such a force,

03:40they premise their willingness on the fact that Hamas would disarm, or at least would be willing to

03:48disarm. And that's not the case. Hamas has never said it is willing to disarm. This whole agreement

03:54is not an agreement between Hamas and Israel. It's an agreement sponsored by the United States with

04:01many third parties, Arab and Muslim majority countries that have accepted it. Hamas has agreed to

04:09implement the first phase, which is an exchange of prisoners. As a matter of fact, the hostages that

04:15Hamas held had become a burden much more than an asset for it. So it is unloading. It has unloaded

04:22these hostages. The bodies that remain, I think Hamas has every interest in surrendering these bodies

04:31as soon as it locates them. But I kind of accept their excuse that for the time being, they do not

04:38have control of the sites in which these hostages were killed in the course of Israeli bombardment.

04:45They insist. They do not necessarily have access to their bodies. But beyond that, Hamas has not

04:55agreed too much. Hamas has not agreed to disarm. Hamas has not agreed to be completely out of the

05:01picture. Hamas has stated, actually for a while now, that it is willing not to be part of the governing

05:08coalition or the governing body of Gaza and to surrender it to another Palestinian body, not an

05:16international coalition. But it has never said that it will dissolve. It has never said that it will

05:24disarm. Given what you're just saying there, I'm quoting the New York Times from today, which reports

05:30Israeli analysts and officials saying the most likely outcome of phase two of the talks will become

05:37bogged down and that they envisage the status quo lingering for so long that it takes root as such,

05:46with Hamas still being armed and the Israeli military refusing to withdraw fully from Gaza.

05:52That certainly doesn't bode well for any long-term peace deal, does it?

05:57Absolutely not. You're right. This has not been a well-conceived or at least mature peace deal.

06:06The first phase, okay. And we have seen actually some joy on both the Palestinian and the Israeli side for

06:12the fulfillment of much of the first phase. But that's it. Because on questions of disarmament

06:20and withdrawal, we have two opposing positions that cannot be reconciled. Israel would like to maintain,

06:28Israel insists on maintaining security control over Gaza, even in the context of an international force,

06:35even in the context of Hamas demilitarization. And Hamas insists that its weapons, it's willing

06:43to engage, to commit to a truce in which, during which it will not engage in operations,

06:51but it considers the weapons to be an inalienable right for people under occupation. You cannot expect

06:57people under occupation not to resist. That's their position. And these two positions cannot be reconciled,

07:04and therefore the second phase, which is a prerequisite for the reconstruction, for governance,

07:11for even contemplating anything beyond, whether it's in the form of a state or something else,

07:17and contemplating a genuine peace. The second phase, given that it is not possible to advance in it,

07:26is the insurmountable obstacle today to this plan moving forward, which really the question is,

07:34and actually the absurd situation in which we had in Sharm el-Sheikh in Egypt, 30-plus leaders from all

07:42over the world signing and congratulating each other for the peace deal. But the two parties to the

07:49to the presumed peace deal, Hamas and Israel were not there. And actually this is what we're witnessing

07:56now in terms of the obstacles, is a reflection of that thrust. I guess the United States, Donald Trump,

08:04the American president, wanted to push forward the momentum and kind of push everyone towards accepting.

08:11But actually, I think neither Hamas nor Israel is in a position to simply shy from insisting on their

08:20position. They keep on insisting on these positions, and therefore the second phase is at a dead end,

08:27and therefore the whole optimism, I think, is currently not justifiable.

08:32So you're saying that this ceasefire deal is doomed, in effect?

08:39Well, the Arab approach to it is, while knowing fully that neither Hamas nor Israel are ready for it,

08:49the Arab approach, I'm talking about Egypt, Qatar, and actually we can add to that Turkey,

08:55is that even if it provides 60 days of reprieve, during these 60 days, realities on the ground might

09:05force the two parties to more or less surrender their hardline positions. With no hostages in Hamas's hands,

09:17the Israeli government cannot really comfortably market the war again for a public that is tired

09:24of two years of war. And on the other hand, the reality of the devastation in Gaza might force

09:31Hamas to concede to the fact that it is not in a position to maintain not just law and order,

09:38but actually to ensure the basic needs of the Gaza population. And therefore, maybe through this period

09:45of truce that now, in the aftermath of phase one, and as a result of the optimism of phase one,

09:53we'll get, we'll settle in for a while. Maybe in the course of this period, this interim period,

10:00the two positions might become slightly softer. But on the basis of today's data points, meaning

10:08the Israel's insistence on defeating Hamas, which is a strategic necessity for Israel. This is not

10:16simply from Israel's point of view. This is not simply a question of a preference. This is a necessity,

10:22because if Hamas is not defeated, Hamas will declare victory. And if Hamas declares victory,

10:28it means that the approach that Hamas has adopted, which is a continuation of the struggle against

10:35occupation as they frame it. And therefore, the continuing war with Israel will continue.

10:42Okay, Hassan, I'm going to pick up on a point you just said there, because you do talk about a

10:48narrow window of opportunity. And the fact that both sides have been dragged to the negotiating table,

10:56Trump and the Americans dragging the Israelis on one hand, and obviously the Arab states and Turkey

11:02doing their bit with Hamas. With that in mind, as a result, is there a chance, is there a

11:10possible good chance that other elements of this peace deal could go ahead?

11:17Up until the issue of disarmament and withdrawal are really concretised in one way or another,

11:26I think we will hear a lot about governance, about Palestinian representation, but all of this will

11:33remain theoretical, because no reconstruction will happen if the potential for the resumption of hostilities

11:40is still there. And no form of governance would be offered to the Palestinians, or for that matter,

11:48irrespective of Palestinian demands and will, without Israel being confident that it does not feel the

11:57danger of being attacked again. So, yes, there is a window of opportunity, but actually the process

12:05is not yet clear. And there's no end to this tunnel currently, but there is a tunnel. Okay. Now, in other

12:13words, what we can count on, that in the course of these coming weeks, while everyone is trying to settle

12:21in with the new reality of no war, even if it is temporary, that there will be parties, the US for sure,

12:28but also the Arab and Islamic countries that participated in pushing this deal, that will try to reify

12:37those conditions on the ground that makes it more appealing for Hamas, on the one hand, and for

12:43Israel, on the other hand, to dilute a little bit the excessive demands. Egypt, for example, has a

12:50solution which is not a disarmament that will destroy the weaponry of Hamas, but a disarmament

12:57that will put these weapons in escrow, if you'd like, in Egyptian custody up until a Palestinian state

13:04emerges. And therefore, this may be a face-saving measure for Hamas. Israel is unlikely, today is

13:11definitely not accepting, but even with a lot of attempt at convincing it, it's unlikely to accept

13:19such a thing, because this will, again, not meet the strategic necessity that Israel defeats Hamas.

13:27The unfortunate fact is that we have two strategic necessities that are at odds.

13:34Hassan Nemneh, we're going to have to leave it there. Thank you so much again for your time.

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