00:00For the news, Donald Trump has authorised the CIA to carry out covert operations inside Venezuela,
00:06warning that he's also considering land operations there.
00:10It comes as the U.S. military has been conducting a series of deadly strikes
00:14against alleged drug smuggling vessels in the Caribbean.
00:18Four Venezuelan boats have been destroyed since early September, killing 27 people.
00:24Well, to discuss the significance of the CIA operation, we're joined now by Philip Gunson,
00:30Senior Consultant for the Andes region at the International Crisis Group.
00:34Thanks so much, Philip, for being with us on the programme.
00:36It's not so long since we spoke about the situation in Venezuela.
00:41Will this development significantly ramp up tensions, do you think, with Washington?
00:46What do you make of it?
00:49I think it's intended to.
00:51I think this is best interpreted as part of a propaganda war that the Trump administration
00:58has been waging against the Maduro government here in Venezuela for the past couple of months,
01:03at least since they sent this huge fleet to the Southern Caribbean ostensibly on an anti-drugs mission.
01:10And I say that because I think the announcement is intended to intimidate Maduro.
01:17It's intended to convince him that if he doesn't leave, if he doesn't step down from power,
01:23then the U.S. is going to come in and get him.
01:26But I think we're a long way from that yet, potentially.
01:30I think, in fact, it's kind of absurd, if you like, to announce publicly a supposedly clandestine operation.
01:40And it looks much more like trying to increase the pressure than it does any kind of serious operation internally,
01:50which is not to say that there won't be attempts by the U.S. in perhaps the next couple of weeks,
01:56maybe to blow up something inside Venezuela that they can plausibly claim has to do with what they call a narco terror cartel run by Maduro.
02:04So the two aren't at this stage sliding any closer to an outright conflict, though, than Philip.
02:10When Trump then talks about potential land operations, is that just an empty threat, do you think?
02:16Or what's the thinking behind that?
02:20It's well known that Donald Trump is very reluctant to invade them as well, or indeed anywhere.
02:26I mean, he's very reluctant to get involved in any kind of protracted conflict.
02:30He doesn't want to put U.S. servicemen and women in harm's way if he can get his way by threats or by sending over a few rockets.
02:42So I think that's the next stage that we might see.
02:45The Venezuelans, of course, don't really have much of a response to this in conventional military terms.
02:49If the U.S. fleet and the weaponry that's deployed out there were to be used in earnest,
02:58then the Venezuelan resistance, conventional resistance, its armed forces would collapse very shortly.
03:05And Maduro knows that. So Maduro is not interested in any kind of escalation.
03:08And again, you know, Trump doesn't want to do, doesn't want an escalation if he can possibly avoid it.
03:13And does the CIA actually have authority here to take action against the Venezuelan president?
03:19Is this a violation of international law, as some commentators are suggesting?
03:24Well, no doubt it is. I mean, in fact, it's a violation of the U.N. charter to do what Trump is doing at the moment,
03:31which is to use force to attempt to force a change of government in a foreign country.
03:37In terms of U.S. domestic law, of course, there is I think it's an executive order which limits the president's ability to order assassinations overseas.
03:50But being an executive order, it's something that Trump himself could clearly revoke.
03:55And he's shown very little interest in adhering either to U.S. domestic law or to international law when it comes to this kind of thing.
04:03And of course, the votes that we've seen blown up in the Caribbean have also been blown up in defiance of international norms and the U.S. military code.
04:11And CIA involvement, it's also a sensitive topic, isn't it, in Latin America?
04:14Maduro pointing out that, you know, in his response to this CIA operation, this covert operation,
04:22he's describing those actions that the CIA has carried out over the years as a coup.
04:28Yes, the CIA, of course, has a very bad reputation in Latin America and in other parts of the world.
04:35It's worth bearing in mind, though, that when the CIA has contributed to the overthrow of foreign governments,
04:42it's always needed some kind of military force involved as well.
04:47And the CIA on its own is not going to be able to overthrow Maduro,
04:50although it could certainly conceivably engage in targeted assassinations or other forms of sabotage,
04:58attempts to undermine the government.
05:00I think the thing is that if the U.S. is serious about changing the government here without any form of agreement,
05:06without any form of prior negotiation with the outgoing regime, with the armed forces in particular,
05:13then it's going to need a U.S. military presence on the ground.
05:16It's not going to be possible to change the government.
05:19At least it's not going to be possible to secure, you know, in terms of the defence of an incoming government,
05:26it's not going to be possible to keep that government safe and to ensure a smooth transition
05:31unless there's some kind of military assistance.
05:34And obviously they won't be able to count on the armed forces of Venezuela
05:38that they have described as a narco-terrorist cartel.
05:42Philip, we'll have to leave it there for now.
05:43Thanks for being with us, though, on the programme.
05:46That's Philip Gunson, Senior Consultant for the Andes region at the International Crisis Group.
Be the first to comment