00:00For some reaction, we can bring in Simon Mabin, a professor of international politics and Middle East studies at Lancaster University.
00:08Good morning. Thank you so much for taking the time to speak with us.
00:11Good morning. Thank you for having me.
00:13Could you first just share your feelings as this deal was finally announced after two years of war?
00:20I think it's overwhelming relief.
00:22I think the destruction of Gaza, the horrors that people have been living through, the starvation, the famine, the really awful conditions, the harrowing conditions that the people of Gaza have been going through.
00:37All of that should, in theory, end now with the ceasefire and finally getting some aid into Gaza.
00:45So it is overwhelmingly one of relief in the short term.
00:49In the longer term, I am concerned. I am anxious.
00:53I am not entirely convinced that this plan is achievable.
00:58But in the short term, this is absolutely imperative to get some aid into Gaza and stop the killing.
01:06I want to talk about your long term concerns as well.
01:08But just first, do you believe short term that in the next couple of days things are going to go smoothly?
01:13Or is there anything at this point that could sort of sabotage this first phase of the deal?
01:17There are always things that can sabotage these deals.
01:21There's always spoilers. There's always people who disagree with it happening.
01:25There's always people who have an agenda to try and undermine the agreement.
01:29But I do think in this case that we'll see the return of the hostages.
01:33I think Hamas will deliver on that.
01:36And I think we will also see the delivery of aid into Gaza.
01:41So I think for the next three days, we'll see things moving in the right direction.
01:46We'll see some positive steps.
01:48But it's after that that I get concerned.
01:50And tell us more about those concerns.
01:52What do you think are the biggest hurdles for kind of long lasting peace?
01:55Well, I'm not entirely convinced that the plan itself that's been put forward by Donald Trump is viable.
02:03There's too many ambiguities.
02:05There's too many contradictions.
02:07And it doesn't really address the myriad different facts on the ground, on the Israeli side, on the Palestinian side, on the ground in Gaza.
02:15I think that there are question marks about Hamas and, as your package said, about disarmament.
02:21Hamas does not seem ready to disarm until and unless there is a real concrete step being taken towards the establishment of a Palestinian state.
02:32And the Trump plan does not really include that.
02:35And then you've got all the questions, of course, about who is actually going to be responsible for running Gaza.
02:41Is it this technocratic body?
02:44If so, who is it that's going to be appointing members to that body?
02:48Is it going to be Tony Blair?
02:49Is it going to be Donald Trump?
02:51How long is that body going to be actually in operation for?
02:54At what point are they going to hand over to the Palestinian Authority?
02:57And that is another serious issue because Benjamin Netanyahu has said repeatedly that there can be no role for the Palestinian Authority in post-war Gaza.
03:07So there are questions there.
03:09And I think the big thing is that the plan brings about this initial ceasefire.
03:14It will return the hostages home, which is a wonderful thing.
03:17They've suffered a hell of a lot.
03:19I cannot fathom how hard the past two years must have been for them and for their families.
03:24But it does not do enough to set out how a lasting peace can be achieved.
03:29To what extent do you think that Donald Trump is sort of personally to thank for the fact that we have a deal at all?
03:37Yeah, I think he's played a really key role here.
03:40We know that Joe Biden tried to secure a peace deal.
03:44We know that many others have tried on the international stage.
03:47But I think Donald Trump's force of personality, I think his idiosyncratic style of diplomacy is what's managed to get this over the line.
03:58I think that he's got this good relationship with the state of Israel, but not necessarily the best relationship with Benjamin Netanyahu.
04:05He's got good relations with the Arab world.
04:07He's got good relations with the Gulf leaders.
04:09And I think that with the Israeli strike on Doha a few weeks ago, I think that has really allowed a bit of a sea change and allowed this diplomatic breakthrough,
04:20despite everyone acknowledging privately, of course, that this isn't the best deal.
04:27It's not the best deal, of course, but it is a deal that can get people to the table and can get some aid into Gaza and stop the killing.
04:34What are the political consequences of this deal going to be in Israel?
04:38I mean, are we going to see the end of Netanyahu's government at some point in the near future now that this war is finally ending?
04:46Well, he's sort of hung his hat on a certain number of principles with regard to the destruction of Hamas, the liberation of the hostages.
04:54And with the return of the hostages, that, of course, is a cause for celebration for him.
04:59He would claim that he's achieved his goals.
05:01But Hamas is not disarmed as yet.
05:03Hamas is still playing a very prominent role in Gaza until it disarms, until it leaves, according to the Trump plan.
05:11But then you've also got question marks about what happens after that.
05:15The legal case is still there for him.
05:17He's got, I believe it was in November, it's coming up next month.
05:21He's got to face questioning in court about his own legal troubles.
05:26But then you've also got the question mark about the religious right and the far right in his own coalition who do not agree with this plan, who do not agree with withdrawing from Gaza, who are advocating the reoccupation of Gaza, or indeed worse in the case of some of the members on the far right.
05:47They have got huge influence in the coalition, and so I think there's a concern for Mr. Netanyahu that the plan is signing the end of his own political career.
05:58And that's one of the other reasons why I'm concerned, that this may not actually bring about a lasting peace.
06:04And as you were mentioning, kind of the question of Hamas's ongoing role and potential for disarmament is going to be another one of the big obstacles.
06:10How does one sideline Hamas?
06:14I mean, have they been weakened enough at this point that there are other powers on the Palestinian side that could kind of step in and take the reins?
06:23Well, right now, I guess the only real viable power that could step in and take the reins is the Palestinian Authority, but it wields little influence in Gaza.
06:32Right now, Gaza is a war zone, an absolutely devastated, decimated war zone.
06:39And so we don't really know where the power is wielded in Gaza amongst the Palestinian populations.
06:47There will be some, of course, but right now Hamas remains the most obvious, the most dominant.
06:53And so I think it's going to be very difficult to envisage a future without Hamas, without themselves choosing to disarm.
07:02And the only way that they will choose to disarm, at least in my understanding, is with the establishment or at least irreversible steps taken towards a Palestinian state.
07:13And that's not on the table at all right now.
07:15No, there's a nod to it in, I think it's Article 19 of the plan, that says something along the lines of that when all of these conditions have been met, as in when Israeli security conditions and concerns have been addressed,
07:30when the PA, the Palestinian Authority, has reformed, when power has been handed over to the Palestinian Authority,
07:35then, and only then, the conditions may be right for the establishment of a Palestinian state.
07:42So there's no cast-iron guarantee there.
07:45And there's a lot of different factors that are conditional, that are subjective, and that are really difficult to actually meet and to measure.
07:53So in that respect, I'm not confident about the establishment of a Palestinian state in this regard.
07:58But I don't even think that this was necessarily about the establishment of a Palestinian state.
08:04I think this was about stopping the killing and getting aid into Gaza, getting the hostages home.
08:10Have the past two years changed the dynamics of the broader region in a way that makes lasting peace in Israel and Gaza kind of more of a possibility?
08:19It's a tricky one, because we've been talking about a lasting peace in Israel-Palestine for decades now.
08:29We had the Oslo Accords, we had the Camp David Accords in the early 1990s, and that suggested that there might be a breakthrough,
08:37there might be a roadmap for peace.
08:40But that didn't really get off the ground.
08:42The reality was that this, quote-unquote, two-state solution was not a two-state solution, because there was only one state at play.
08:49And the Israeli annexation, informally perhaps, of the West Bank, the blockade of Gaza, had made the establishment of a state incredibly difficult.
09:04And without the second state, you cannot have a two-state solution.
09:08Now, what this does, I think, is it changes the contours of regional politics a little bit,
09:13and everything that we've seen with regard to Lebanon, with regard to Syria, with regard to Yemen, Iran, and indeed the strike on Qatar.
09:22It's, I think, changed the contours a little bit, so much so that there is a united front now that says we cannot have the continuation of the killing any longer.
09:32And I think that's really key here, that there is a united front of other states in the region who are saying enough is enough,
09:40and calling on the United States to actually try and facilitate an end to this conflict.
09:45All right, Simon Maben, thank you so much again for your analysis this morning.
09:49That was Simon Maben, a professor of international politics and Middle East studies at Lancaster University.
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