00:00We can now bring in Aaron David Miller, Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace,
00:04as well as former State Department analyst, advisor, and negotiator in both Republican and Democratic administrations.
00:11Thank you so much for joining us on the program today.
00:13This conflict has gone on for nearly two years now.
00:15Israeli hostages remain in Gaza.
00:18Much of the enclave is destroyed.
00:20Famine has been confirmed.
00:21At what point is Donald Trump going to tell Benjamin Netanyahu enough is enough?
00:26It's a fascinating question.
00:33I'd only point out some context here.
00:36When it comes to sustained and serious pressure by American presidents against Israeli actions,
00:43even though those actions may undermine, undercut American interests,
00:49presidents, Republican or Democrat, the ones I've worked for, Jimmy Carter to Bush 43,
00:55have, for any number of reasons, failed to impose significant or serious pressure.
01:01If you ask me when do I think Donald Trump might, might, impose serious costs or consequences,
01:10it would be under one of three circumstances.
01:12Number one, if he drew the conclusion that Benjamin Netanyahu was, to use Trump's word in relationship with Vladimir Putin,
01:23plain him, that's one question, one circumstance.
01:27Second, if Donald Trump made—excuse me, Benjamin Netanyahu made Donald Trump look weak,
01:34that's a second set of circumstances, and third, given the transactional nature of this president
01:40and his own self-absorption—if Benjamin Netanyahu came between something
01:47that Donald Trump really wanted and was proving to be a major obstacle that reflected negatively
01:56on what Donald Trump cares about, over the last six months, none of these circumstances have applied.
02:05And it's hard for me to see, given the attention span of this president,
02:11that what it would actually take to get Trump to actually impose consequences.
02:17The phone call, Benjamin Netanyahu, end the war or else, that phone call is never going to take place.
02:25Even though Donald Trump is losing support amongst mainstream MAGA Republicans like Marjorie Taylor Greene,
02:32like the likes of Tucker Carlson, Megyn Kelly, all these people have been speaking out and saying Israel is going too far.
02:40True enough, but that's not—by no means is that the vast majority of the president's MAGA base.
02:48It's certainly not his primary base.
02:50I don't think this is going to turn—I don't think Donald Trump is being politically wounded
02:56because Republicans are turning on him.
02:59Some are, but I'm not sure they really matter.
03:03And the other reality is, you know, the amount of international pressure.
03:08I understand the sense that it appears to be that Israel is being turned into international pariahs under great pressure.
03:16When I look at what the Europeans have done, the three European states that Israel cares most about,
03:25the British, the French, and the Germans, even the Germans who have imposed a partial arms embargo,
03:31they're now buying over $4 billion of aero missile defense system equipment from Israel.
03:39So French virtue signaling on the issue of Palestinian statehood, Keir Starmer's the same.
03:46That's not going to change Donald Trump's calculation.
03:50One last point.
03:51And the Arabs, this to me is the truly stunning reality.
03:56Neither Israel's treaty partners, Jordan region, nor its Abraham Accord partners,
04:01the ones that are now in those agreements, Bahrain and the Emiratis, or the punitive, big prize, Saudi Arabia,
04:11none of them have saw fit to impose a single cost or consequence on Israel or the United States.
04:18In fact, far from it, the Europeans can't get to Washington fast enough to ingratiate themselves with Donald Trump.
04:26So, Mr. Netanyahu is not, in my judgment, under the kind of pressure from the region,
04:34from the international community, and certainly not yet from the United States,
04:38to fundamentally alter the trajectory of his policies toward this sad and tragic war.
04:44I think everyone realizes that the silence from the Arab world is kind of deafening.
04:50You and I have spoken in the past, and you said that Netanyahu can essentially do what he wants in Gaza
04:54as long as Knesset math is on his side.
04:57But to what end?
04:58If you speak to Israelis, they are scared to travel.
05:02Yesterday, we even had Thomas Friedman, who wrote that his operation in Gaza is making Israel a pariah state.
05:08So, at what point is he willing to risk it all?
05:14Look, Benjamin Netanyahu's constituencies and his priorities,
05:20I mean, Tom Friedman's a friend, and what Tom writes is powerful.
05:25It's not going to alter either Donald Trump's calculation or Netanyahu's.
05:31He's the only Israeli prime minister in the history of Israel that's on trough of bribery, fraud,
05:36and breach of trust in the Jerusalem District Court, four years running.
05:40He's not presiding over the most extreme right-wing government in the history of the state of Israel.
05:44Two of his ministers are Jewish supremacists and racists.
05:52And right now, the paradox is, since the Knesset is on recess until after the Jewish holidays,
05:58until October 19th, he is virtually free from any legislation or efforts to dissolve the government.
06:06I would say you need to do two things to change his calculations.
06:12Number one, you'd have to see strikes over a sustained period of time that shut down the government.
06:18You'd have to see resignations from the core security and intelligence officials,
06:24the head of Mossad, the head of Shin Bet, the chief of staff.
06:28And you would have to see much bolder and firmer action from Washington in order to get Benjamin Netanyahu's attention.
06:39Even though we had an open letter from hundreds of former Israeli security officials
06:44essentially calling on the U.S. president to pressure Netanyahu to bring this war to an end,
06:48they themselves are saying that Hamas no longer poses a threat.
06:53Look, it's powerful logic.
06:56I worked with several other Israeli prime ministers.
07:00None of them would have been behaving the way that Benjamin Netanyahu is.
07:05But he has a priority.
07:07And he is, let's be clear, the most skillful, politically ruthless Israeli politician on the political scene today.
07:17And what I'm about to say even terrifies me.
07:21I think you'll end up with an election probably in early 2026.
07:28This government was formed when?
07:30In December of 2022.
07:32The average length of an Israeli government since independence is 1.9 years.
07:38This government will probably go to term.
07:41And as ridiculous as it sounds, it is quite conceivable that Benjamin Netanyahu could win another term.
07:54It could be.
07:57We'll see what happens between now and then.
07:59I want to talk about what you suggested earlier about France's virtue signaling when it comes to the recognition of a Palestinian state.
08:06Because this is something I've even asked people in Gaza about.
08:09And they said, this is not going to realistically change our lives as long as the war goes on.
08:15But the thing is, even the fact that France wants to get the ball rolling in terms of a two-state solution down the line.
08:23The fact that Paris made this announcement.
08:26Then you have Benjamin Netanyahu accuses France of essentially fanning the flames of anti-Semitism in this country.
08:33Charles Kushner wrote a letter to the French president saying France is not doing enough to combat anti-Semitism.
08:39Even though France has recognized it has a problem with the spike in anti-Semitism in this country.
08:44They have put measures in place.
08:46So it's a vicious cycle, isn't it?
08:48Because even if France wants to do something and stand up to Israel, it gets accused of anti-Semitism and what have you.
08:57I mean, I think you're making my point.
08:59And I think it's one of the anomalies of the current situation, where you have tremendous international outrage and opprobrium heaped on Israel.
09:12You have the International Court of Justice still debating.
09:15It may take another year to determine whether or not the Israelis have committed genocide.
09:21You have the ICC imposing arrest warrants on a sitting as early prime minister and a former defense minister, as well as three Hamas officials, all of whom are now dead.
09:32And yet, and yet, the constituencies that keep Donald—excuse me, that keep Benjamin Netanyahu sustained his right-wing coalition and the Likud party, I might add, which does not have a history of devouring its own.
09:53And the U.S.-Israeli relationship, a president who, frankly, in many respects, has done things with respect to Israel that no American president has ever done.
10:05He opened a negotiation with Hamas in March of this year, about which the Israelis learned after the fact.
10:11He cut a deal with the Houthis, again, about which the Israelis learned after the fact.
10:17He started negotiations with Iran.
10:20Donald Trump has the capacity, because of his own self-absorption, he does not have any of the emotional or psychological attachments to Israel that previous American presidents, particularly Bill Clinton and clearly Joe Biden, who described himself as a Christian Zionist.
10:44So Donald Trump has the capacity.
10:48What he lacks is the opportunity.
10:54When Donald Trump believes that there's something in this for him, when the situation gets so bad that he is now held responsible, then he'll act, but not until.
11:11And David Miller, thank you for joining us on the program.
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