- 10 months ago
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00:00For more, we can speak to Paul Smith, Head of Modern Languages at the University of Nottingham
00:04and an Associate Professor in French and Francophone Studies.
00:08Hello to you, Paul.
00:10First of all, a lot to get into, but I want to begin with,
00:13what was your reaction to Le Corneau's being reappointed as French Prime Minister?
00:20A sense of a little bit of surprise.
00:22There was some talk yesterday among some commentators of the veteran Jean-Louis Bourleau coming back.
00:28But I suppose that it was kind of 50-50.
00:31I was kind of thinking, Le Corneau might be persuaded,
00:34have his arm twisted by Macron into accepting reappointment.
00:38It kind of sort of made sense, I think.
00:42And that's what it does appear like.
00:44Moments ago, he gave his first public comment since being reappointed.
00:47One of the reporters asked him, why did you take this job?
00:52And he said something to the effect of no one else wanted that.
00:55Is that really how far this political crisis has gone?
01:00Yes, I think it has.
01:01I mean, I think the problem facing Macron or facing everybody is that nobody really wants it.
01:08I mean, it is a poison chalice.
01:11Le Corneau has already spent one weekend and several weeks before that
01:15trying to pull together the various political parties.
01:18It seems to be that there is very little will or very little goodwill
01:23in terms of trying to form a coalition.
01:25It's not something that French political parties are used to doing in their defense,
01:31but they could make rather more concessions.
01:33So he's kind of back to the drawing board,
01:36particularly with the withdrawal or the exclusion,
01:39whichever way you want to look at it, of people like Rotaillou,
01:41but also, I suppose, Gerard d'Armenat, who has presidential ambitions,
01:47and even Gabriel Attal.
01:48So there are a number of figures who Le Corneau would not be able to call upon.
01:53But I don't think that's such a bad thing.
01:55And to go back to Olivia's point about new faces,
01:57perhaps that might be something that he's mulling over this weekend,
02:02but he's not got very much time to sort it.
02:04Yeah, and the first time he was prime minister,
02:07I'm going back several weeks, if we can remember that far back.
02:11He said he wouldn't do count enough to 49.3.
02:14That's the controversial measure to push a reform to the parliament
02:17without a legislative vote.
02:18So this time, I'll probably have to make more concessions.
02:22And moments ago, when he was asked about suspending the pension reform,
02:26he said all debates were possible if they're realistic.
02:31Does the French government,
02:33will it consider going back on that pension reform then?
02:35Well, there are reports of yesterday's meeting with Macron,
02:40where Macron talked about the idea of suspending certain aspects of the bill
02:45already in an attempt to bring the left on board.
02:49It didn't seem that those concessions were quite enough.
02:51The problem is that, you know,
02:53at one point it was 49.3 that we're negotiating over,
02:56and then the socialists were talking about the Zuckman tax.
02:59And then now we're talking about the possibility of either suspending
03:03the pensions law or changing the law as it's going to apply to people
03:08who are just coming up for retirement,
03:10who were born in 1963, 1964, and so forth.
03:13So the problem is that the issues seem to be kind of fluid and moving.
03:20But if Le Corneau is serious about, and again,
03:25the version of events that's coming out of the Elysee yesterday,
03:28he's been given carte blanche to negotiate.
03:33If he is serious about the idea of everything is possible,
03:38let's debate it in parliament, let's put it in the budget,
03:41or let's talk seriously about this,
03:43then there may be the possibility of compromise.
03:46But it really depends on whether the parties will take him up on those offers.
03:51And of course, it might be the shape of the government that determines that.
03:54It may well be that the way to bring the socialists on board,
03:58to bring les Républicains on board,
03:59most of them want to be on board,
04:01not Retailleux,
04:02is to give them certain ministries.
04:04So that is kind of the,
04:06that's the carrot, I suppose, that you can offer.
04:09And when we talk about carte blanche for Le Corneau,
04:12is it really carte blanche or is that just a way of saying
04:16you have no leverage, try to make a deal?
04:20Yeah, well, I think that, I think it is to some extent.
04:23I mean, I think that we've now,
04:24we're almost getting into the territory of admitting that the next,
04:28what is it, 18 months until the presidential election
04:30will be a period of caretaker government.
04:33And this idea that, you know, France needs a budget for 2026.
04:38Okay, so we get a budget through
04:40and then we've got a budget in place for 2026.
04:43Some legislation will take place that might involve,
04:46or, you know, we might talk about
04:48suspending certain aspects of the pensions bill,
04:50but then we get into a situation where you're,
04:52you're not really governing, you're managing.
04:55And that's going to be, that will have an impact.
04:58And it might well be that a little bit further down the line,
05:00because we're already talking, of course, about motions of no confidence
05:04in the government, that either before the budget or later,
05:08we get a motion of no confidence that might pass.
05:11So it's a very fluid and a very,
05:14this might solve the situation now,
05:17but it's still going to be very unpredictable, very messy.
05:20Right. And given that uncertainty,
05:22that has some people speculating about whether,
05:26Emmanuel Macron could invoke Article 16 of the French Constitution.
05:29I don't know how well brushed up you are on the French Constitution,
05:32but that would essentially bring in...
05:33Oh, very well.
05:34Well, explain it to our viewers, what Article 16 is,
05:37and if it would really be applicable here.
05:40Well, Article 16 would be extreme.
05:42I mean, Article 16 is emergency measures.
05:45And Article 16 would mean that,
05:47I mean, Article 16 says that the president can,
05:50if they judge that it is necessary
05:53to safeguard French security and the French Constitution,
05:56they can introduce, they can invoke Article 16,
06:00but they can only do that
06:02with the approval of the Constitutional Council.
06:04That's the first step.
06:06I'm not sure that they would necessarily approve that,
06:09but let's imagine that they do.
06:11You can't dismiss Parliament at that point,
06:13and you can't dissolve the National Assembly.
06:16Those are very, that's very clear under Article 16.
06:18So, although some people might be talking about that,
06:22that seems very unlikely to me,
06:24that there would be a serious...
06:26I mean, who knows?
06:27Tomorrow morning he might decide
06:28that he's invoking Article 16
06:29and I'll look like an idiot.
06:30But he would have to have the approval
06:33of the Constitutional Council,
06:35and it wouldn't actually resolve the problem
06:38of the National Assembly that he's got at the moment,
06:41because, as I say,
06:42both Houses of Parliament would sit,
06:45would have the right to sit during the period
06:46of emergency rule,
06:50and it says very clearly under Article 16,
06:53you cannot dissolve the National Assembly.
06:55So, that would kind of fix things.
06:58I suppose the argument might be
07:00that there's another way of doing that.
07:01It's basically saying,
07:02I can't dissolve the National Assembly
07:04so we can't have fresh elections.
07:06I think that would be very unwise.
07:07It's only been used once,
07:09and that was by de Gaulle
07:09at the time of the Algerian War.
07:11So, that would be a very extreme measure.
07:14Yeah, very different circumstances.
07:15After Le Corneau appeared on national television
07:19to give an interview after he had resigned this week,
07:23his popularity surged.
07:25Now he's back at Matignon.
07:28Will there be a honeymoon period,
07:29or do you think he'll come under fire right away?
07:34I think, well, he might get a very brief honeymoon period.
07:37I mean, I think a lot of people
07:38actually feel quite sorry for him.
07:39Certainly amongst my in-laws,
07:41the sentiment was that, you know,
07:43insofar as I've had time to talk to them,
07:45certainly the feeling was,
07:47well, you know, what a job.
07:48I mean, it's always been,
07:49the prime ministerial post
07:50has always been described
07:51as the worst job in France
07:52because historically,
07:54the president got the glory
07:55if things went well,
07:56you got the blame if they went badly.
07:59Paradoxically,
07:59that's kind of flipped around
08:00over the last few years.
08:01But I think there will be
08:03a certain amount of sympathy,
08:04particularly because the political parties
08:05don't seem to really want to play ball.
08:08Retailleau, for example,
08:10throwing his toys out of the pram last Sunday.
08:12I don't think that went over
08:13actually terribly well
08:14with conservative voters
08:16who see Les Républicains
08:18as being the natural party of government.
08:20So, you know,
08:20we want to be involved in government.
08:22We don't want to lose that kind of control.
08:26He might have a short period,
08:27a short honeymoon period,
08:28but I don't think it would last very long.
08:31And one more question for you, Paul.
08:33France's second biggest economy
08:35in the Eurozone,
08:36a key member of the EU.
08:39Political instability in France,
08:41what does that mean
08:42for the broader region?
08:45Well, it's not good news.
08:46Certainly the Germans,
08:48the German press this week
08:50has been expressing,
08:52you know,
08:52the view that we really need
08:54France to be stable.
08:55We need a government
08:56for things to move forward.
08:58And of course,
08:58that's right across the piece.
08:59I mean, you know,
09:00the idea that some people
09:01mulling over of Emmanuel Macron
09:04resigning,
09:05which is very unlikely,
09:06you know,
09:06you suddenly think,
09:07what would happen about
09:08the situation in Ukraine,
09:09the position with Europe
09:10to regard that?
09:11So with regards to that,
09:12so although a lot of people
09:14are kind of saying,
09:15ha ha,
09:16the French,
09:17the Italians,
09:18for example,
09:18apparently the Italian press
09:19have been loving it
09:20because for years,
09:21of course,
09:21the Italians were mocked
09:22by the French.
09:23But actually,
09:24it's really important
09:25that the French
09:26get beyond this,
09:27that we get some stability back.
09:29France gets a budget,
09:30it tackles its deficit problem
09:32and we're able to move on.
09:34And that's what's really
09:36complicating the issue as well,
09:38that this is,
09:38you know,
09:39this has local as local
09:40in the sense of national French,
09:41but also beyond that,
09:42really serious consequences.
09:45In the US,
09:46there was some discussion
09:47that Barack Obama
09:48paved the way
09:49for Donald Trump
09:50to come to power.
09:52Here in France now,
09:54concerns that
09:55if Emmanuel Macron's government
09:57were to call elections,
09:59the far right would win.
10:01And Emmanuel Macron
10:02perhaps not wanting that
10:03to be part of his legacy.
10:05Other people saying,
10:06perhaps call those elections now,
10:08get a far right prime minister in,
10:10see if it works out.
10:11And if it doesn't work out,
10:12that might avoid
10:13a national far right win
10:15in the presidential election
10:16in 2027.
10:18Do you think Macron
10:19is making any of these calculations
10:21or is he considering
10:22something else?
10:24I think he's certainly,
10:25he's certainly thinking
10:26of all of those things.
10:27I mean,
10:27one of the big questions is,
10:28would now,
10:30would Le Pen
10:31and Bardella
10:32want the opportunity
10:33to govern for a year?
10:34Let's imagine
10:35that they win
10:35the general election.
10:37A period of cohabitation
10:39has to happen.
10:40Okay.
10:41Would they want to do that?
10:42There have been occasions
10:43in the past
10:44where they've done well
10:45in regional elections,
10:46for example.
10:47And then you kind of thought,
10:48well,
10:49I'm not sure
10:49that she really wants
10:50to be the president
10:51of a region
10:52in a year leading up
10:53to the presidential election.
10:55Because there's also
10:56this kind of idea
10:56of the curse
10:57of being prime minister,
10:58that being prime minister
10:59stops you from actually
11:00getting to be elected president.
11:02So those calculations
11:03will be being done
11:05on her part.
11:06But also,
11:06as you say,
11:06on Macron's part,
11:07the playbook
11:08is absolutely full,
11:10I think,
11:11of options.
11:12The problem is
11:13that sometimes
11:14Macron chooses
11:15the wrong play.
11:16He did in June 2024.
11:18I think that there is
11:19a very big,
11:20and the socialists as well,
11:21it's not just a question
11:22of the Macronist supporters.
11:25I think,
11:25for example,
11:26the socialists
11:26would not want,
11:27and Les Républicains
11:28would not want,
11:29a general election
11:30at this point in time.
11:32Unless,
11:32of course,
11:33Les Républicains,
11:34it's quite interesting,
11:35there's a by-election
11:35going on down
11:36in the Tarn-et-Garonne,
11:37Montauban,
11:38tomorrow,
11:39where there's a kind
11:40of test going on
11:41about the relationship
11:42between the far-right
11:44and the right-wing
11:46candidate who's going,
11:47sorry,
11:47who's dropped out.
11:48You've got the far-right
11:49against the socialists
11:50and how right-wing voters,
11:52their candidate,
11:53is no longer able to stand,
11:54how they're going to vote.
11:55And it's kind of being
11:56seen as a litmus test
11:57of the possibility
11:58of what the French
11:59called Union des Droites.
12:01And the Union des Droites,
12:02literally the union
12:03of the plural right,
12:04would be a union
12:05of Les Républicains
12:07and former Républicains
12:10who now support Le Pen
12:11and Le Pen
12:12and can that work.
12:14So there's a lot
12:15of potential,
12:16you know,
12:17avenues that one
12:18could explore
12:19at the moment
12:20in French politics.
12:22Indeed.
12:22Professor,
12:23thank you very much.
12:23Paul Smith,
12:24joining us
12:25from Nottingham.
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