00:00It's the grade one Coolmore turf mile and on paper there's a good amount of speed because down towards the inside you have a couple horses that want to be forward.
00:08Donegal momentum is really quick. He comes off a stakes win last time out and he is a graded stakes winner.
00:14He's had a little trouble at the start in a few of his races and he did take a bad stumble.
00:18Two starts back in the middle of his race, but he bounced back nicely here Scott.
00:21We're taking a look at him. He programmed trading while I like in this race, but I think he had everything his way. I don't expect that to happen in this one.
00:28Because what's hard for Donegal momentum is right to his outside.
00:32You have a horse like Cuatro Centro, the number two, who is pretty quick.
00:37He got the lead from the outside at Kentucky Downs last time out, Scott, and I just don't know if he's quite this classy.
00:42Yeah, the class test is certainly there. The Kentucky Downs form, he won twice in a two-week period.
00:47That's a lot to ask to come back and win this.
00:50We move to Howard Wolowitz. I think this has been said about 10 times when he's running.
00:54He's looking for the big bang here, second start off the bench, and he's only run eight times, and they've said it 10 times when he's running, Scott.
01:00But he could be a little closer stretching out.
01:03I'm interested in him at the mile because he's been a very good late-running sprinter.
01:08He's a good horse. I don't know if this is exactly what he wants to do, go two turns.
01:12He's bred to sprint on the top side. He's got some distance pedigree on the bottom side.
01:16I'm more intrigued than anything to see how he runs.
01:18Diego Velasquez comes in from France. This is a horse who's actually a group one winner.
01:25He's won four of his last five that are graded stakes, group stakes races, and he has a couple legitimate excuses when maybe he's going a little too long or the turf course was not to his liking.
01:35I think he's going to be sitting pretty close in here, Scott.
01:37That would be my main concern is that he wants to be forward, and I think there's a lot of other speed in here.
01:42But on class, he seems like he's been facing some of the best.
01:45Sure does. I'm not sure if Aiden O'Brien really does have all that much success in the non-breeders' cup races coming.
01:51So if he's taking too much money, I wouldn't be too excited to bet him, but I wouldn't be surprised if he runs huge.
01:57Wood Shauna is a group one winner, multiple group stakes winner.
02:01My biggest concern with him is most of his races have been shorter, so we haven't really even seen him go a mile.
02:07He does seem like he wants to come from way out of it, too, like they're going to really grab a hold and want to make that one late run.
02:13So maybe he gets the setup in here with a lot of other speed.
02:15I just – he was a tricky read for me.
02:17Well, they spent 847K, they being Resolute Race and Jon Stewart.
02:22They get Tyler Gafleone, and they get their toughest test, but they're only testing the state so far.
02:27We've talked about Mercante before, Scott, and I really respect this horse, but I think what's tough for him in this spot,
02:33he's at his best at about a mile and an eighth.
02:36Like a mile and a half is a little too far for him.
02:38A mile almost seems like it's a little too sharp for him, and you see his best victory and his best races came a little earlier in the year
02:46when he gets that mile and an eighth trip.
02:48He also peaked earlier in the year.
02:50I wonder if that was like his best, and maybe we're seeing like more of his B-level game right now.
02:55What do you think about Mercante?
02:56Well, I agree.
02:57I think we probably saw the best of him.
02:59He might be a little faster over the all-weather as well, and I don't know what kind of trip,
03:03although he is tactical, what kind of trip he's going to get in this race.
03:06Epic ride is really fast, Scott.
03:08I mean, he showed us last time he could get a mile on the turf.
03:12He wins this race we're watching at Kentucky Downs flying on the front end.
03:17He holds off Beach Gold.
03:18He also holds off Brilliant Birdie in there.
03:21I know there's a lot of other speed, but if anyone in here were to get loose,
03:26it might be this guy who is the speed of the speed.
03:29He's bred to go two turns on the turf, but he was so good early,
03:33almost winning on debut at Turfway for a bar that never does.
03:37He's a good horse.
03:37It's kind of re-embedded himself here going two turns on the turf.
03:41I think things worked out a little bit advantageously for him last out.
03:44I don't think I can back him in here.
03:46Program trading just looks so good on paper.
03:48He's a multiple grade one winner.
03:50He's going to go second start back after a 14-month layoff.
03:54It just looks like he gets some pace to chase, Scott.
03:56A lot of positives for me.
03:57Yeah, we saw the Donegal momentum win last out on a replay before.
04:01He was the one that didn't have things his way in that race.
04:04Second off, a legitimately long layoff.
04:06If he gets back to his best, he has a big shot.
04:09Rhetorical is really, really a nice New York, Brad.
04:12They don't know how good he is, though, Scott,
04:14so they're going to take a shot against grade one company here.
04:17This guy is like half a length away from being undefeated.
04:20He's very, very sharp.
04:22Will Walden, 25% on the year, almost positive, blindly betting on his horses.
04:26Third off the layoff, we'll find out how good he is.
04:29Brilliant.
04:29Birdie is a multiple graded stakes winner.
04:32I don't know if he's quite at this level.
04:35He's really, really honest, though.
04:36He's got some versatility to him, Scott.
04:38I like this horse.
04:39I don't think he's had really good setups or things his way.
04:41He's been up to close paces when he doesn't want to be.
04:44You get Jose Ortiz with Brian Hernandez Jr. on the sidelines.
04:48Beachgold's in really nice form.
04:49He just kind of feels like a long shot.
04:51I could see maybe being involved early and then like an underneath type.
04:54Tough post, and also he wants to be forward in a race where others do.
04:59We round things out with Jean Quill, who two races at a mile, Scott.
05:02There's some of his better races.
05:04I think of the European horses, this one gets forgotten about, doesn't get bet.
05:08We're going to get 15 or 20 to 1.
05:10The outside draw doesn't bother me as much because I hope he just takes back
05:13from out there and comes rolling.
05:15So as we move to selections, that's going to be the one that I put right on top.
05:19Jean Quill looking for a little bit of value, Scott.
05:21But I do think program trading is the one to beat, and that's who you have on top.
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