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00:00Thursday night football NFC West battle tonight Joe Ranieri Seattle and Arizona we'll line this
00:06game up in just a few moments but I love Thursday night football but more importantly Joe I like
00:10Thursday night meaningful football the NFC West looks like it's going to be a very competitive
00:14conference and maybe it's just Joe who can just stay healthy throughout the season a lot of
00:19damaging blows to injuries to multiple teams here which leads us with two two-in-one football teams
00:24on this Thursday night and as Joe pointed out during his spread lines boy we had a favorite
00:29here for the Arizona Cardinals early in the week that's now completely shifted over to Seattle
00:33who is a one and a half point favorite at just about everywhere you're shopping a total listed
00:37at 43 and a half Thursday night football always tough for the road team but the question is
00:42the heartbeat of that offense for Arizona isn't Kyler Murray it's not Harrison at wide receiver
00:47it was James Connor he's down for the season somebody's got to step up how do we feel Joe
00:52first about the line moving from a favorite to Arizona over to a favorite for Seattle
00:56well Donnie I talked to a a lot of guys this week and a ton of them in their numbers and their power
01:03rankings had the Seahawks at close to a five point favorite in this game heading into it so the fact
01:10that they were able to get him as a dog it's no wonder why the line is flipped because this is truly
01:16one of those games where the wrong team was favored to start with and you're right though on a short week
01:21you and I have talked about it it's all about I got to look at the home team before I look at
01:26anything here because of the travel that's involved in the short week the road teams are always at a
01:32disadvantage except for Seattle under Mike McDonald they're eight and one straight up in five and three
01:38against the number when playing away from home so they are absolutely and by the way when they're
01:45playing as road underdogs of less than a touchdown they've been even better Jonathan Gannon
01:51we already mentioned they've had a hard time beating this Seattle team whether it's in Seattle
01:56or in Arizona you know I think the line was a little mispriced to begin with I think you can
02:02still get the Seahawks I don't think it goes to three but I do think it's going to continue to go to
02:07the Seahawks and also you take a look like who you play sometimes right you saw the opening game
02:12gets Seattle which I thought they could win that game didn't end up winning against the 49ers gutsy
02:16performance though at Pittsburgh and then absolutely blowing the doors off a bad Saints team
02:20then you look at Arizona it sounds like yeah they're two and one that's fantastic but do you
02:24see the first two games they had it's like yeah you're supposed to win those and then in a game
02:27where San Francisco had backup quarterback after backup you know wide receiver after backup tight end
02:32backup offensive line and they lost that football game and they lost maybe one of the best parts of
02:37their offense in Connor so I do agree with that line movement on the surface I think you're right
02:41like Seattle's the better football team but it is always hard to win football games on the road
02:45tempo wise Joe in this game 43 and a half as a total any quick looks on that yeah well Seattle
02:52is not going to play at a fast tempo they're not going to hurry up and get to the line of scrimmage
02:57and try to give uh you know Sam Donald an opportunity to beat him they're going to pound they're going
03:01to ground and they're going to pound and they're going to force the other team to do just that as
03:06well they have been fantastic against the rush uh and they have been very good against the past thus far
03:12here and Kyla Murray well not you know which Kyla Murray shows up the one that looked pretty good
03:18in the first half of games or the one that eventually incomplete passes with under two minutes to go you
03:24give the ball back and voila you lose the game so kind of tough to trust Kyla Murray and Gannon right
03:30now since they never never win these games when it matters in conference in division play at home
03:38here especially against Seattle yeah I'm going to get to Kyla Murray just a few moments here because
03:43I do think there's an angle I like to play in this game but we all love the touchdown market props here
03:46and you're entering into this game and we talked about earlier in the week already Joe you look at
03:50James Conner first and goal at the three whose football is that James Conner's like okay well if I
03:55want to take Marvin Harrison Jr. or somebody else I'm not going to you know that price is going to be at
03:59a premium because we think the touchdowns will get chewed up by Conner he's not there in this game
04:03so now we take a look at Trey Benson at a plus 105 price Trey McBride at a plus 165 price Marvin
04:09Harrison Jr. at a plus 190 price if we start with the Arizona Cardinals touchdown market here who would
04:15you go to with Conner out now well it's funny we saw McBride finally get in the end zone last week
04:20against the 49ers right uh for him so he has been a target but I I don't think he's going to be the
04:27focus here for Arizona I think Benson needs to be involved in this game Donnie they are going
04:33to have to feed him the ball a lot I think they are also go anytime they're inside the five they're
04:40going to give him an opportunity to punch that in and try and own that line of scrimmage so I I think
04:45that's good value with him yeah it should be interesting to see again if he can be more of
04:49that goal line back but also understanding more of that first second and third down back which means
04:54extra opportunities in the next segment we're going to dive in a little bit deeper to those numbers for
04:58Kyler Murray and also Trey Benson here but we'll set the table for this Joe you don't have to answer
05:02because I'm just going to have you think about this over the break Kenneth Walker the third is a
05:07plus 105 price to score an anytime touchdown Zach Charbonnet which had a full practice this week
05:12he's at a plus 190 can you trust either one of these running backs or is it all Kenneth Walker in this game
05:17much more on Thursday night football right here on the early line keeping it simple sometimes is usually
05:22the most effective way to handicap it right Joe don't go over your skis here don't overthink yourself if
05:27you think there's going to be a touchdown score don't worry so much about the price but more of the
05:30handicap here the reason I bring this up is Kenneth Walker got a lot of the burn last week and rightfully
05:35so why Zach Charbonnet didn't play because he was injured quick work week this week and say okay
05:39they're gonna play on a Thursday chances are Zach Charbonnet doesn't play in this game either but
05:43did get a full practice in and whenever the odds markets pop up that you have a line of Charbonnet
05:48scoring anytime touchdown to plus 190 it seems like a pretty good price if he was fully healthy but we
05:53actually don't know that so playing the running back market Joe from a Seattle perspective is it all
05:58Kenneth Walker or hey Charbonnet's gonna get carries why not be able to punch your ticket for a plus 190
06:03as well well to me Donnie it's an absolute pass because I think you're betting against yourself if
06:09you choose one guy over the other because the reality is they're both more than capable red zone running
06:16backs here to be able to punch it in from inside the five right but you know who how do we know we
06:22already know the health of uh of Zach uh has been questionable all week you mentioned it missed
06:27last week so you know you go with the hot hand you don't push it here I to me it's a coin flip spot
06:34the market is telling you that at that price you know I I would look for more value down the board
06:39maybe with the wide receivers what about you know Horton or somebody like that getting involved and uh
06:45and getting a better price because I'm not sure the running back market I don't know if there's any
06:49value for Seattle there might be getting some value in that quarterback market if we take a look at the
06:54head-to-head between Kyler Murray and Sam Darnold 211 and a half passing yards listed for Kyler Murray
06:59the home quarterback the road quarterback Sam Darnold 226 and a half approachable prices here look at the
07:04touchdown market both of these guys obviously at one and a half but how about this plus 136 for Kyler
07:09to throw two plus 154 for Darnold to throw two if you're trusting quarterbacks tonight not to win the
07:15football game necessarily Joe but in the prop market which guy would you be going with today
07:19well it's funny uh Donnie and it's if I told you if you go to uh pro football focus right pfx
07:26yep through three weeks do you know who their highest graded passer is in the NFL right now
07:33is it Sammy Darnold it's Sam Darnold under Clint Kubiak's offense here he has absolutely been way better
07:41than anybody has given him credit for to this point so everyone was uh everyone was so concerned him but
07:48he's getting more and more comfortable here I think if you're going to back a quarterback in
07:52any of the passing markets it's Sam Darnold especially with the injuries to the secondary
07:57for Arizona and if we flip it over and say okay rushing yards here we talked about some of the
08:02prop markets here for quarterbacks and also the rushing back the running back props here to score
08:06a touchdown when I tease before the break I look at Kyler Murray it's 27 and a half yards I just think
08:11the team itself has to pick up the slack for the loss of James Connor also understand this 27 and
08:17half isn't a lot of yards if you said well how does it have in the landscape of this year he's hit that
08:21each and every game Kyler Murray I'm not asking for a lot but when you know you have a running back that
08:25usually gets let's just say 15 touches out of the backfield that's no longer there yes Benson's
08:30going to pick up the slack and he's listed at 57 and a half but I really like Kyler Murray over 27 and a
08:36half rushing yard side I think he's gonna have to do a lot that's a good defense that will put pressure
08:40on him and as you alluded to banged up a little bit on the offensive line quarterback that likes
08:44to run why can't he get 30 yards tonight Joe I like Kyler Murray's rushing prop here over 27 and a
08:49half well he well he can get that uh the way he extends plays it could be one play Donnie and you're
08:56cashing that ticket so that's what makes him dangerous what makes it tough here for him is the
09:02fact of how healthy now that secondary of Seattle is getting Julian Love they're starting safety back
09:09so is Devin Witherspoon so now he might have to tuck it and run it way more than he'd like to in
09:16this spot so I'm with you I like that prop yeah how about that a little running from a running
09:21quarterback we'll see how it plays out Kenneth Walker III 52 and a half yards Joe and you take
09:25a look at Trey Benson 57 and a half yards we're looking for a lot of work tonight out of Benson but
09:31the question is as always if you're the underdog sometimes it is risky taking running backs not saying it
09:36never works out but in the fourth quarter how many extra carries are you going to get if you need
09:41to get that 57 and a half yards who are you trusting on the ground Joe in this game between both Kenneth
09:46Walker Trey Benson or any of anybody else in this football game well I think it's uh you know if
09:53Arizona is going to win this game they need Trey Benson to have a big game they cannot rely on with a
10:00banged up offensive line by the way having to pass protect for Kyler Murray if he's got to drop back 40
10:05times here Donnie so to me I think the guy to focus on especially I think it correlates to any
10:11sort of Cardinals bet yeah that you might have in this game it's got to go with Benson he can't just
10:17have 30 yards rushing in this game he's got to be more impactful than that absolutely does and also
10:22when you take look at the receiving props to Joe filling in for Connor which means more snaps after
10:26more chances to catch passes yesterday Trey Benson was at a 20 and a half price point for his receiving
10:31yards today he's up to 21 and a half and I do agree with that Jackson Smith and Jig by 84 and a half
10:37yards Trey McBride 64 and a half yards Marvin Harrison Jr 47 and a half is there a wide receiver
10:43component or a pass catching component that you like in this game Joe yeah uh JSN for over six and a half
10:50receptions uh Donnie it's a big number but he has been a guy that is absolutely he's averaging over seven
10:58grabs a game on the year over close to 10 targets a game so yeah with that banged up secondary of
11:05Arizona between him Donnie and Torrey Horton I can see these guys getting some uh going prop
11:12betting market receiving yards receptions getting a lot of work here tonight and we got some live
11:17movement here also take a look at the big picture right because you're talking about an NFC West you
11:22know two teams going toe-to-toe with two to one looking to track down their counterparts here a very
11:26competitive division the San Francisco 49ers lead right now in the odds market at a plus 110 price
11:31to win that I know I don't really like them because they're just seemingly too injured to start the
11:35season and getting more injured as the season goes but credit to them being 3-0 the Los Angeles Rams at
11:41a plus 180 price and how about this the Seattle Seahawks now live are listed at plus 650 and the Cardinals
11:47at a 7-1 price so if you do say victory for Seattle they're certainly going to move up same thing with the
11:53Arizona Cardinals a win tonight they're going to move up with a loss on either one of those those
11:57are going to move down if you look at the four teams Joe in the NFC West who is getting your money
12:02right now well I mean listen I am not a big fan of tying up money here for four months on a team
12:09that's plus 180 but the Rams are clearly I still think the best team in this division but I don't
12:16know that you're ever going to get Seattle at a better number at 7-1 than you are right now
12:22uh Donnie I think that is the team that is the dark horse in this division I think it's easy to
12:27say to 49ers because of the schedule but I think the Rams and I think Seattle ultimately it's going to
12:33come down to those two teams how about these stats Joe sometimes you can play a little bit around with
12:38them bend the rules make them seem like exactly which way you want to go but there's no bending
12:42this Kyler Murray two and eight overall against the Seattle Seahawks hasn't beaten them since
12:482020 does that infiltrate your numbers to say hey man they're underdogs they you know forget
12:54covering the spread at one and a half they better win this game and Kyler Murray only two and eight
12:59in his career against the Seattle Seahawks no it's been terrible and it's been terrible recently I mean
13:05Seattle has owned this matchup here and I mean seven in a row they've won here the whole seven of
13:12those uh you know have dealt with uh with Kyler Murray in some way shape or form or I think there
13:17were a couple of backups used in that spot hey listen there are some teams that just play you very
13:23very well and for as good as Kyler Murray can be uh this is just a tough matchup for him against a
13:30solid top 10 defense in the NFL uh it's it's tough to go oh Kyler will get it done he's never gotten it
13:38done against this team yeah by the way they're two and one right now Arizona a lot of teams in
13:43the NFL would love to start two and one Joe they play the Seahawks tonight at home let's just say
13:47they win that game and go to three to one then they have the Titans at home they can go to four
13:50to one you know why you need that because before the season okay we'll go to Indianapolis we can
13:54compete Indy might be one of the better teams in football by the time you play them on week number
13:58six and week number seven that's the Packers so to make a long story short Joe you better handle
14:04your business at home over the next two games because after that those next two after that tough
14:09well listen they lost to the Saints I mean they beat the Saints they beat the Panthers two terrible
14:16teams and they beat the backup they almost beat the backups of the 49ers but they didn't uh so I
14:22don't know what you're going to do against teams that are over 500 uh it could be a rough season here
14:27for Arizona let's see if Arizona can hang around with Jonathan Gannon as their head coach stay healthy
14:33boys is what we like to say and tonight they're not healthy at least in the spread market they're
14:37now underdogs here ah two hours of fun it's how we get down we set the table it's a Thursday into
14:42a football Friday so many good things this weekend but so many more good things this evening but this
14:47is the time that myself Donnie Wrightside and Joe Ranieri we like to reach out to the public
14:51and get their opinion on our fade the public poll question
14:54Thursday night football is the topic people and at sports grid on twitter slash x if you're not
15:07following you're doing it wrong here we asked the simple question you could vote on today what is
15:11your best bet for Seattle versus Arizona on Thursday night football four opportunities to weigh in here
15:17over under Seattle or Arizona for me Joe I actually went under 43 and a half as my vote on this one
15:25where did you go here yeah I went uh Seattle uh Donnie if uh I just think there's too much uh too much
15:33history there's too much data that shows us yeah I think Seattle uh should have been the favorite I
15:39think Arizona was the wrong team favorite I think the market has adjusted correctly how about that and by the
15:46way if we look at the percentages here 14 voted on the over 22 on the under which is actually kind of
15:52a flag there you see everybody just bets overs constantly Seattle minus one and a half 46 they
15:58are the favorite and then the Arizona Cardinals at a 17 clip at plus one and a half they pull up their
16:04second to last only behind the over which again it's kind of interesting here people love to bet
16:09overs here but I'll tell you what else people love they love to win money if you tuned in yesterday
16:12you loved what Joe and I gave you on the Boston Red Sox no matter how many ways you bet the Red Sox
16:17you probably came up with a victory we're looking to do it again today here's bye bye bye
16:21there's baseball there's football in the car Joe buying yourself some victories tonight where can we go
16:34yeah well I'm gonna go to that Thursday night football game and oh it is scary knowing the
16:40public is on the same side as you uh the public is not always wrong uh Donnie and I think the Seahawks
16:48are just the better team and they are certainly the more healthier team here as that secondary and
16:55cluster injuries on the offensive line for Arizona are huge red flags especially with how good the Seahawks
17:03have been defensively and oh yeah by the way uh they get their starting safety and the cornerback
17:09back this year uh this week here so given the fact that Mike McDonald the head coach of Seattle since
17:15he's taken over is eight and one straight up in road games yeah I got no problem backing Seattle to get
17:22it done on the road against a banged up Arizona team who I just don't think is that good so I'll back
17:29I'm Donnie on the money line yeah we'll see where this line goes as well we sit here early this
17:33morning at minus one and a half across the board we'll see if you get any buybacks there on Arizona
17:38but as we talked about Arizona was the favorite heading into the week here that minus two and a
17:42price point now flipped again back over here to Seattle in the total that's sitting at 43 and a half
17:46I'm also like I love these bets because I think Joe we keep them simple we don't out think anybody
17:50it's early in the morning what's the best point of play for tonight whether it be a baseball game or
17:55football game I'm going to keep it simple again it's Kyler Murray for me I don't need a lot from
17:59Kyler Murray and as a matter of fact if we look at his first three games show of the season six carries
18:04seven carries and seven carries yardage 38
18:07yep Kyler Murray yes over 27 and a half rushing yards with Donnie and that was one also that I was a
18:19big fan of given the fact that the pass rush is going to be there and he's also going to have to
18:24tuck it and run it when he gets a chance so Donnie I think those injuries on the offensive line are
18:30going to force him to have to get out of that pocket more than ever tonight you can't take me
18:35off the air before I'm giving my best bets I look that's the people know how much we win Joe they're
18:39trying to cut it right when we give our best bets right now that's why I'm still here in audible
18:44as Joe pointed out Kyler Murray over 27 and a half rushing yards tonight he gets at least 30 rushing yards
18:50we don't have to worry about sacks taking away from the total give me that in the first half and I
18:54don't care what happens the rest of the way as long as Joe Ranieri also cashes his Seattle money line
18:58take it
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