Analyzing Beck and Lagway's Passing Yards and TD Lines

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00:00But if we are looking at the passing props, Joe, Carson Beck, 268 and a half.

00:04D.J. Lagway, 223 and a half.

00:06The touchdown props, different in the juice markets here.

00:08Carson Beck to throw two touchdowns, that's a minus 158 price.

00:12D.J. Lagway to throw two, that's a plus 152 price.

00:15I told you, I like Lagway, that low 220s price range.

00:18He threw, what, 50 times last week?

00:20I don't expect 50 passes, but I do expect some sort of,

00:23hey, you know what, if I'm going to throw 40 times,

00:25I better be getting over 200 yards.

00:26Yeah, I would, I mean, if we're looking both quarterbacks,

00:29which one could get through their total, you would probably say Lagway, right?

00:35Just because their backs are against the wall.

00:38And then people are going to say, well, Carson Beck's playing legs out.

00:41Yeah, he is.

00:42And they're averaging 306 passing yards per game.

00:46But if you're Florida, you're taking away the passing attack as well.

00:50They're only giving, they haven't really allowed a quarterback

00:53to expose them over the top.

00:55They're only giving up 177 through the air.

00:58So, again, you'd think Florida's going to limit big plays.

01:01They're going to force Beck to methodically work down the field.

01:04And this could look like his week one matchup against Notre Dame.

01:07210, two touchdowns, no interceptions.

01:10He plays well.

01:11Yeah.

01:11But he's well under the 268 and a half.

01:14So, I would go under Carson Beck.

01:15I would say I would take a shot Lagway, two plus touchdowns, Donnie.

01:19How about on the ground, though?

01:21Oh, what do you got?

01:22I'm just saying it's got to be a huge number.

01:23Success on the ground?

01:24Yeah.

01:24How about a touchdown?

01:25How about he running in for a touchdown today?

01:27Yeah.

01:27I like that.

01:28But I think if he gets two, it's not for Lagway.

01:31It's not going to be through the air.

01:32It's going to be on the ground, them utilizing his legs.

01:35I'll tell you, I'm looking right now at the FanDuel Sportsbook,

01:37looking at the player rushing props.

01:38I only have two players listed, Joe, so you can't even get a Lagway prop there.

01:41Mark Fletcher, Jr., 72 and a half.

01:43And you take a look at Jaden Ball, 59 and a half.

01:45If Miami's leading, Fletcher's going to get those 72 and a half yards.

01:47So, let me ask you this.

01:48And, again, a conduit to sort of covering his spread usually has a correlation.

01:53The reason I bring that up, Joe, is Mark Fletcher, if he's over 72 and a half yards,

01:57Miami's probably rolling on offense, no?

01:59Yeah, absolutely.

01:59What do you have, a buck 20 last week and two touchdowns in the route?

02:04I mean, they were able to run the football effectively, and they beat up USF in the trenches.

02:10I just thought it was a bad matchup for USF, even though I took the points with the Bulls.

02:15Miami caught them at just the right time.

02:17I mean, emotionally, physically, they could have been a little burnt out.

02:21But, again, in this matchup, the rushing attack will dictate whether Miami covers this line.

02:27You know, if Miami rushes for well over 150 yards in this game and over four yards per carry,

02:33just wrap it up, they're going to dominate this game.

02:36And they had great success on the ground last year with Damian Martinez,

02:40and even Cam Ward beat them with his legs.

02:42Now, is that looking for, like, lagway props?

02:44I think he throws for a decent amount of yards.

02:46Let's just say 225.

02:47Somebody's got to catch it on Florida's side, Joe.

02:49You take a look at, you know, Marion, Eugene Wilson III, Hanson, Ball,

02:54any guys, and even like, you know, Vernell Brown, even Sturdivant.

02:56Anybody have an eye on that can be a game-breaker for Florida at the wide receiver position?

03:00Eugene Wilson, for me, any time touchdown, he's a home-run hitter in big spots.

03:04He's had an ability to step up.

03:06Again, I would go tertiary guys underneath short routes.

03:10I know we heard Coach say that, you know, Napier's got to just, you know,

03:14throw caution to the wind.

03:16But when you're on the road, you want to have a methodical attack,

03:21especially, especially, Donnie, when you have a better quarterback,

03:24more consistent quarterback in Carson Beck, you don't want to get into a shootout.

03:28You know what I'm a fun bet in this one, too?

03:30You take a look at some of these team special props.

03:32A receiving touchdown, Joe, in each quarter of this game, not for teams, just anybody,

03:36each quarter is a plus 650 price today in that game.

03:39That's not bad.

03:40That's not bad.

03:41A receiving touchdown.

03:42A receiving touchdown every quarter.

03:43Now, the rushing prop in every quarter, Joe, is a 6-1 price.

03:46I like the rushing better.

03:47I do.

03:48I would take the rushing one.

03:49There you go.

03:49What shocks you today?

03:50What shocks you in this one?

03:51Come on.

03:52Again, if Florida wins, but wins dominating.

03:56I mean, if we have a typical Mario Cristobal, Georgia Tech, Syracuse.

04:01It's a great coach game by Cristobal.

04:02Syracuse, where they get blown out.

04:04Nah, Joe's just being a hater on Miami.

04:06Everybody wants to be a Miami Hurricane.

04:08It's just a new thing to do, the new fashion thing to do.

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