Jackson Arnold's Performance and Prop Betting Odds

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00:00Talk me out with Jackson Arnold, Joe.

00:01174.5 is a passing prop.

00:03Five-star guy returning back home.

00:04His touchdown prop, Joe, he doesn't even get a one-and-a-half.

00:06He gets a half, but it is juiced at a minus-225 price.

00:09What, are they just going to run the football here?

00:11He can't win that game that way.

00:12The problem is, and this is the matchup, this is why I say I'm going contrarian,

00:17because when you look at Jackson Arnold's number, 174, right, 173,

00:22they're averaging 173 through the previous three weeks of the season, right?

00:26They struggled with South Alabama, gave up some points to that offense,

00:30which is not anywhere near Oklahoma,

00:32and Jackson Arnold has more rushing yards than he has passing yards for the most part.

00:39He's only completing right around 60% of his passes.

00:42He's only got 501 passing yards, four touchdowns, no interceptions,

00:47but the one big game that he has under his belt,

00:50he rushed for $1.38 against Baylor, only had 108 yards through the air.

00:54Can't do it.

00:55They're going to need a better effort.

00:57Cam Coleman, Singleton, I told you they've only combined for 23 receptions

01:02and three touchdowns right around 298 in the receiving yards.

01:06If you're back in Auburn, you need a better effort,

01:09otherwise it's going to look like Bryce Underwood at Michigan,

01:12and I think that's why we're seeing the total from 48.5 down to 46.5.

01:17I'm not buying it.

01:18I think Oklahoma could get into the 30s, 40s in this game.

01:21I took Auburn, maybe we could get a, you know, 20, 24.

01:26I don't think Auburn rolls and wins outright 35-30.

01:31That would shock me.

01:32I'll tell you what rolls today.

01:33But I think the total.

01:34John Mateer rolling into the end zone for a touchdown, minus 140 price.

01:36The guy, he's in the end zone today, Joe.

01:38Book your day, start your day with a touchdown for Mateer.

01:41On the ground?

01:42On the ground.

01:43He runs one in.

01:43All right.

01:44How about you ready for this parlay?

01:45Yeah, I'm ready.

01:46Mateer, touchdown, Arnold, touchdown, plus 322.

01:49That's all, man.

01:49The quarterbacks rumbling in the end zone.

01:51You can get that.

01:52It would shock me.

01:53Again, I mean, you saw Jackson Arnold have multiple touchdowns on the ground this year.

01:57Had one last week.

01:58Had one against Baylor.

01:59He's done a better job in the RPO game than he has in the passing attack.

02:04But again, we're talking about a secondary in Oklahoma.

02:0746% completion percentage against opposing quarterbacks.

02:11And haven't allowed a passing touchdown.

02:14That is the matchup.

02:14And I think why you're seeing sevens in the market today.

02:17How about this matchup, too?

02:18We always talk about the quarterbacks.

02:19Who's going to throw more touchdowns?

02:20Who's going to pass for more yards?

02:21Joe, who's going to run for more yards?

02:23Mateer, 52 and a half.

02:24Arnold, 37 and a half.

02:26You would say, again, this is tricky because sacks matter.

02:32Right?

02:32I don't know if Mateer gets to 52 solely because I think he could attack Auburn over the top.

02:39Here's the matchup.

02:40Sawyer, Robertson, and Baylor put up over 400 yards of passing offense against Auburn.

02:45Yeah.

02:46Mateer could do that today.

02:47So, is he going to run for 52?

02:49Most likely not.

02:51I would say Mateer through the air.

02:53Arnold has to get through 37 and a half on the ground to have some sort of offensive balance.

02:59Having Jackson Arnold just sit there and throw, be a prototypical dropback passer, he's going to get crushed.

03:05Yeah.

03:05Take a look at this game again.

03:06Lines are on the move.

03:07A lot of people liking Oklahoma.

03:08He's backing them in the betting market here.

03:1060% of the tickets.

03:11That line moving closer to a touchdown as we get closer to game time at 330.

03:15Also taking a look at that total, 48 and a half, now down to 46 and a half.

03:19I do think we get points in this game.

03:21And that doesn't mean we need 60, Joe.

03:22Just need around 50 points.

03:23That's going to cash in a ticket.

03:25Quarterbacks rumbling in for touchdowns is what we love.

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