Ty Simpson vs. Gunner Stockton QB Prop Comparison and Analysis

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00:00When we look at the quarterbacks, like Gunnar Stockton versus Ty Simpson, you see that price

00:02point, Joe?

00:03Yeah.

00:03269 and a half.

00:04Do you know what it is live right now?

00:06276 and a half.

00:06People are buying Ty Simpson in this game to have a big effort.

00:10So again, it's not just you're pitting the quarterbacks back because we're handicappers

00:13at times, right?

00:14Uh-huh.

00:14Gunnar Stockton, 216 and a half.

00:16Ty Simpson, 276 and a half as that new number.

00:19If I gave you one bet right now on either one of those quarterbacks to throw for more

00:22yards than they're expected, who is that guy?

00:24That has to be Ty Simpson.

00:26Okay.

00:26And the reason why I say, but this is why.

00:28Because he is a better pocket passer than Jalen Milrow is.

00:33They need to attack Georgia over the top because again, I don't believe Alabama is going to

00:38line it up with Jan Miller coming back and run for 175 or 200 in this game without the

00:44quarterback accounting for that, right?

00:46And that is the difference.

00:47That means Ty Simpson is going to be in the pocket, throwing the football to Bernard and

00:52Williams from a pocket presence.

00:54And that's where I think he could step up.

00:56And he could potentially throw for 300.

00:58And if he's coming from behind in that type of situation, I favor Ty Simpson passing yards

01:04over Gunnar Stockton.

01:05The rushing attack for Georgia is much more important for this matchup.

01:10And I mean, between the tackles with Nate Frazier and the offensive line, it's more imperative,

01:15in my opinion, for Georgia to attack Alabama's front seven on the ground.

01:19Let's look at some of those running back props here in this game, because typically when you

01:21take a look at a game like this, you say, okay, there's going to be a lot of points

01:24scored.

01:24Usually the running backs are going to have a very good day.

01:27How about the high man on the totem pole is Nate Frazier, good running back, only 53 and

01:30a half yards.

01:31Jan Miller coming back, only 38 and a half yards, Joe.

01:34So if we're looking at that running back position on either side, UGA or Alabama, is there a

01:38guy that you like today?

01:39It's Frazier.

01:40Again, when you look at big matchups last year, even though Trevor ETN didn't step up

01:45with a great season per se last year, the game that they went on the road to Texas and

01:50they had to run the football, he had his best performance with three rushing touchdowns

01:54and almost 80 yards on the ground.

01:56That's what Kirby Smart does in potentially big matchups.

02:00I think Nate Frazier's the guy.

02:02He utilized him in the overtime against Tennessee.

02:04And if those hog mollies, the offensive line gets a push, he's not going to deviate from

02:11that because this Alabama front seven's giving up $1.38 on the ground.

02:15They gave up $2.40 to Florida State week one.

02:18Take a look at that wide receiver position.

02:19I always like Zachariah Branch, the kid come over from USC.

02:23He's listed, Joe, 45 and a half, but he's not the top man on the totem pole.

02:26Jeremy Bernard, 64 and a half, but Ryan Williams, 65 and a half, the superstar young wide receiver

02:31for the Alabama Crimson Tide.

02:33It sort of ties into a correlation, right, Joe?

02:34You're looking at Simpson having a big game.

02:36Somebody's going to have to have a big game at the wide receiver position for Bama.

02:39It's both Bernard.

02:40He's been the security blanket.

02:42He's been the go-to guy early, and then it's been Ryan Williams.

02:45If you go to last year, Ryan Williams had one of his best performances, over 100 yards,

02:50the 75-yard touchdown.

02:52Maybe he comes in confident in this matchup, knowing that he matches up against the secondary

02:56of Georgia.

02:58So I would give the edge to Williams in this matchup.

03:01That doesn't mean Bernard can't get over his number.

03:04Put it this way.

03:04They both have to potentially get near their number for Alabama to have a shot.

03:09And I told you, Simpson over Stockton.

03:11So I like Williams to potentially get over his number and maybe even score a touchdown.

03:15We love ourselves some touchdown props here.

03:17How about some pay dirt picks?

03:18And for me, I'm telling you, Jan Miller hasn't played yet this year.

03:21That was a big injury when they announced that late in training camp of he's not going

03:24to start the season.

03:25And you saw it really affected them when it came down to that game at Florida State.

03:29I love Jan Miller.

03:29I took the minus 125, Joe.

03:31I just feel like, and I'm not talking about it from a game-changing perspective.

03:34They're inside the five-yard line.

03:35He's getting the football.

03:36He's going to score a touchdown tonight.

03:38I love my guy, Jan.

03:39Well, Jan is, if they're going to run it, it'll be Jan Miller.

03:42Again, maybe Ty Simpson hits pay dirt for Alabama on the ground.

03:46But, you know, Jan Miller's playing in this game to be a factor, right?

03:50I'm going to go tight ends.

03:51I love the tight ends in these games.

03:53But not for Alabama.

03:55I'm going Georgia.

03:56I'm going Lawson.

03:57And I'm going Delft.

03:58Both of those guys with deep value.

04:00Look at those.

04:00Deep value for the dogs.

04:03Those dogs, baby.

04:04They're going to be barking tonight.

04:06Lawson lucky, plus 650.

04:08Oscar Delft, 9-1 price to score a touchdown tonight.

04:12Now, I know you like to do this as well.

04:13Go ahead.

04:13You take a look at both of these quarterbacks.

04:15They had a little bit of mobility.

04:16Yeah.

04:17If I had to give you one quarterback today that pushes it into the ends of himself,

04:21it was like, yes!

04:22Stockton.

04:23Stockton.

04:23He did it against Tennessee.

04:25Plus 105.

04:26Oh, man, he's expected to score today.

04:27He is.

04:28He's on Ty Simpson, plus 220.

04:29Come on now.

04:30You know you're a price point guy, plus 220 out there.

04:32Yeah, but here's the thing.

04:33I'll tell you what.

04:34Ty Simpson, they need him, right?

04:37He doesn't run it like Jalen Milrow.

04:39If you're Kalen DeBoer, are you going to expose him to potentially multiple hits down

04:44on the goal line?

04:45Maybe on a two-yard rush or something like that, but I would still buy in more with Stockton.

04:51He's a little bit bigger, and he's a riverboat gambler.

04:54So give me Stockton at plus 105.

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