00:01Then we'll talk some Canes Gators with Joe Zagacki.
00:05I was reading in USA Today, they have their gambling experts pick the Thursday night football game.
00:13And I just found it interesting what the rationale is behind some people who are picking the Dolphins, betting the Dolphins.
00:21Not necessarily that they're going to win, but they're taking the 12 and a half points.
00:24So here's what the different gamblers in USA Today are saying.
00:30Jordan Mendoza, he's taking the bills, laying the points.
00:34And he says, Miami is bad.
00:37And Josh Allen is Josh Allen.
00:39Buffalo has won six straight against the Dolphins.
00:42Expect this one to be real ugly.
00:45That's kind of where the place that I feel it's going to be headed.
00:49John Heffling, though, takes the Dolphins plus 12 and a half.
00:53And he says, have the Dolphins look terrible?
00:56Yes.
00:57Are they on the road against a very superior team?
01:01Yes.
01:02But betting trends often say that when faced with a double digit spread between division rivals, take the points.
01:12It feels scary.
01:13But with the points already exploding to 12 and a half in just a few days, I'm taking Miami.
01:20So he doesn't believe in Miami.
01:22I mean, he's just saying there's a trend of it.
01:23I got you.
01:24Tyler Dragon.
01:25He takes the bills, laying the points.
01:27He says the Dolphins are on the verge of an implosion.
01:30The Bills might currently be the best team in football.
01:34That's pretty simple.
01:37Christopher Bumbaka takes the Dolphins plus the points.
01:41He says things have gone from bad to worse in Miami, but this is simply too many points.
01:48The Bills have been solid to start the season, but the other guys get paid too.
01:54Blake Schuster taking the Dolphins with the points.
01:58Listen, I know the Dolphins look very bad, but there are some lines I just have to take and hope the averages favor me in the long haul.
02:07A double-digit underdog in a division rivalry game absolutely qualifies as one of those must-take lines.
02:15I get the thought that nobody's going to get whooped by 14 on national TV on a Thursday night in the division.
02:21Unless you've watched them against Buffalo in this same situation before.
02:25Thank you, Hawk.
02:26I've read this book.
02:29I'm not surprised at the end when the antagonist dies.
02:33I'm not surprised.
02:34I've watched this.
02:34I mean, there are plenty of gamblers who just go, yeah, 12 and a half in an NFL game, especially a division rivalry.
02:40Like, I'm not passing it up.
02:41I'm not passing up 12 and a half.
02:43And I get it.
02:44There's very few times in the NFL, especially this early in a season, where I'm comfortable laying 12 and a half.
02:51This happens to be one of those times.
02:53It's so the Bills have scored 71 points in two games, 30 and 41, 35 points a game.
03:01Can it be a 35 to 20 game in the last drive and the Dolphins get seven points?
03:06Yeah.
03:06And now the spread's not there, but you still had no chance of winning that game.
03:10I can see their concept thought.
03:12But the Bills are about to walk around on this field pretty dominant on Thursday night.
03:19I just feel like they're going to be unable to stop Buffalo.
03:23And again, maybe, and we talked about this scenario, Buffalo goes up to a two touchdown lead and they just kind of start running the ball and eating clock.
03:32And it never pans out to a 12 and a half point spread because there are field goals.
03:37It's not like the Dolphins offense was stagnant against New England.
03:40So they're going to put some points on the board.
03:42So maybe that's the way that it plays out.
03:44But I just, I just can't find this pathway to taking the Dolphins and the points tomorrow night as much as I would like to.
03:52And Solana and Mike Cunha were talking about, oh, now run the ball.
03:57That's the pathway.
03:58Slow the game down, make it dirty, you know, drag them into the mud.
04:01And that's not what we do.
04:03We've seen 15 attempts.
04:04I think it was 11 attempts game one, 15 attempts game two.
04:09I don't think they have been in.
04:11I don't think they have a playbook to run the ball and slow the game down.
04:14Yeah, but they need to.
04:15I mean, I get what you're saying, Crowder.
04:16But at some point, if you're the Dolphins, you have to commit to a run game.
04:21You have to commit to putting Ollie Gordon in better situations.
04:24You have to commit to not just doing these little wheel routes with Malik Washington
04:29or end-around plays with Malik Washington.
04:31Because if you don't, guess what?
04:33That's a lot of opportunities for Tua to drop back and get sacked and get injured.
04:38So if the Dolphins are going to have any success, think about the two games where they were
04:42within striking distance to win on the road in Buffalo last year and a couple seasons ago
04:47when they lost by three.
04:49It's running the football, establishing that ground game.
04:51Hawk, I get what you're saying.
04:52Buffalo can just kind of run the ball, eat clock.
04:56But in your mind, if they're a 12.5, 13 point, if they're better than the Dolphins by that
05:01much, then the Dolphins just flat out wouldn't be able to stop them running the football.
05:05So it's not chewing clock.
05:06They're just running right down your throat.
05:08You know what I mean?
05:09Like, that's what they do.
05:10I got you.
05:11Easier to stop a run for six yards than just big pass plays constantly that get you down
05:18the field and run out of bounds.
05:20I don't know.
05:20I just, I feel like, I feel like Buffalo could, if they wanted to, score 50 or more points.
05:27I really do feel that way.
05:29But if you ask me, do I think they will, my answer would be no.
05:35James Cook, the starting running back for Buffalo, has 34 carries this season already.
05:40176 yards, five yards a pop.
05:43We have not run the ball with everyone on our team 34 times in two games.
05:47Because they're always playing from behind.
05:49And, but even, they weren't with, um, uh, there was no game that they weren't playing
05:54from behind.
05:55They had a lead, but they were playing from behind from the jump.
05:59They were down 12, nothing Crowder in that first quarter.
06:01And the offensive structure of that, then you come back and what was it?
06:0614 to 12.
06:07What have they come back now?
06:10Establish that run.
06:11You're speaking of, I know, no, I agree with your concept.
06:14I don't think we have that in our playbook to do what you're saying.
06:19If Tua is taking snaps, either shotgun or under center, three, four, five step drops, Crowder,
06:2830 plus times.
06:29And you, as a defensive line, are getting to him every single time.
06:35Tua has to just get the ball quick, get the ball quick.
06:37Like that is a disaster waiting to happen.
06:40It, it just, it flat out is, we know how this ends.
06:43We've seen it before.
06:44And that is not a recipe to success for the Miami dolphins.
06:49It's just not against Buffalo because guess what?
06:52They're going to get to the quarterback, but run it, but running three plays in a row for
06:57four total yards.
06:58It's not, it's not always a recipe for success either.
07:02But that's not what I'm saying.
07:03Like when I said earlier, you have to establish those intermediate routes.
07:06How do you do that?
07:07Like Buffalo knows, okay, they're going to try to get the ball to Tyreek and Waddle.
07:10If there's no threat of those linebackers pressing forward because of the run, then they're
07:16just dropping back and, and Tua's throwing in a double coverage the entire time.
07:20You have to have that threat of, of a run game.
07:22That's my point with Tua being able to extend plays and be mobile.
07:25If you don't ever have that threat, you never have that hesitation step.
07:29And that's how the Patriots slowed down Chubb and Jalen Phillips later in the game.
07:34Cause they got off with it.
07:35I think it was two or three sacks in the first half.
07:37Remember they just kept running Stevenson right down the gut, a gap for three yards.
07:42It didn't seem like a big play, but if you know, first or second down, they're going
07:46to run straight at you.
07:47You can't fly up the field.
07:49So now you have that hesitation from a defensive end that they might run or pass with the
07:55Dolphins, there is no team saying, Ooh, they might go right downhill.
08:01There's nobody worried about the Dolphins down here, run game.
08:04We're going to pitch it to Malik Washington, who's 180 pounds and let him try to get around
08:09the edge, just seal the edges.
08:10We have no inside run game.
08:12So there's no threat of that.
08:13So why are we worried about it?
08:15If Ollie Gordon gets it, he got in one carry.
08:18He's had eight yards because everybody on the page was like, Oh damn, they ran the ball with
08:23a big dude.
08:23But that's not what we do.
08:25I don't think it's in the playbook, man.
08:26I promise.
08:27Cause if it was, why aren't you doing, why aren't you changing it up?
08:31Why aren't you trying to keep them off balance?
08:33All the cute words about run past balance.
08:36We don't have that.
08:37We are a cutesy track meet team and which is fun as hell when it's working, when it's
08:41working, Hawk, when it's not working, you get beat by 25.
08:45All right.
08:46So I think we just established the game plan, run the ball to has got to be mobile, throw long
08:53throw, throw deep, throw the intermediate routes, do it all.
08:59So just create that in four days, the perfect team in four days, just create a new office,
Be the first to comment