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00:00The early line on a Friday morning, a glorious football Friday. It's Donnie
00:04Wright's out here with Joe Ranieri. And as you know, we get down to the business
00:07here over two hours, but it's so much fun. Like we talked about a game last
00:10night, Eagles versus the Cowboys. We handicapped it yesterday. We watched it
00:14play out. Today, we get to come on the air and talk about it on a Friday. And
00:17the best part about that is we get to do it again tonight, Joe. We have another
00:21game, Sao Paulo, Brazil, between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Los Angeles
00:25Chargers. Let's set the table for this one. We saw a game last year in Brazil.
00:29The Philadelphia Eagles, in a crazy game like you saw last night, ended up
00:33beating the Green Bay Packers. One thing that stood out, both of those teams
00:36are talented. Both of those teams went on to the playoffs, but the field was a
00:39struggle with slipping and issues there. Hopefully, the NFL remedied that
00:43situation. And let's say they did. So, let's take a look at the line itself. The
00:47Kansas City Chiefs, in a de facto away game, quote-unquote neutral site game with
00:51the Chargers, they're favored by three points. The total in this game is listed
00:55at 46 and a half. Your initial thoughts, Joe, on the spread and the total when you
01:00saw that open and also where we sit today on game day.
01:04Well, it should be noted, too, Donnie, that the NFL did everything in their power
01:08prior to this here, over the last couple of months, to avoid the ridiculousness of
01:15that field and how slippery it was and how bad the conditions were in there. So, what'd they do?
01:21They sent their guys and they completely redid the turf in this stadium for this
01:26game. So, the NFL did step in. They don't want a repeat of how bad it was last
01:32year. So, that means we're probably going to get a pretty fast track here. And
01:36initially, I thought, well, international game against a couple of rivals, right?
01:41What are you going to get? Justin Herbert's had a ton of success covering games
01:45against the Chiefs and Mahomes and Andy Reid. But I'm a little worried about this Chargers
01:52team. A little banged up on that offensive line. What are you going to get from Najee
01:56Harris? Can he actually see? You know, there's more questions, I think, with the Chargers
02:01than what we have with the Chiefs, who I know defensively are going to show up. And I'll go
02:07back to it. I thought there was a reason why we saw so much Patrick Mahomes and the
02:13starters in the preseason, which we usually hadn't done prior. I think they're coming
02:19out here. They're expecting to fly around. I think Worthy's going to have a big night.
02:23I thought, actually, the number might have been a little bit light at two and a half
02:27when it opened. But it's been steady Kansas City money since. And now we're sitting at
02:32a field goal.
02:34Yeah, Rasheed Rice will not be playing in this game, as everybody knows, got that suspension.
02:37He'll be out for the first couple weeks of the NFL season. But if the focus, Joe, is on
02:40the quarterback position, you got two good ones here. It's Justin Herbert and Patrick
02:43Mahomes. Andy Reid, hopefully going to take that restraint off of Patrick Mahomes, which
02:47we didn't have that big strike ability over the past season and a half. Maybe that's back
02:51in the fold. But Herbert is always the wild card. If you look at the passing props here,
02:55244 and a half for Patrick Mahomes, 234 and a half for Justin Herbert. If I gave you that
03:00one question and said, Joe, you can go over or under on either one of these quarterbacks,
03:04how do you play Herbert Mahomes? Is it an over for Mahomes and under? Or the same thing
03:08with Justin Herbert with his passing props tonight?
03:10Yeah, well, I mean, the spread's telling us it's going to be a close game, right, Donnie?
03:15So if it's going to be a close game, who's going to dictate this game? Are the Chiefs
03:20playing from in front? Because if they are, they are, you know, they've been deadly in
03:25the Mahomes era here. They don't usually lose leads. Even if you get close in the fourth
03:31quarter, they end up figuring out ways to win one score games. 11 of them, I think, last
03:36year alone, Donnie. So to me, I think it's going to be about Patrick Mahomes and his ability
03:42to push the ball downfield, opening up the running game. You know what Harbaugh wants
03:47to do. He's not going to sit there and drop Herbert back unless they are getting blown
03:51out and they have to make up a big deficit. They're going to run the ball. They're going
03:56to be a power team. They're going to take their time. They're not going to put Herbert
03:59in harm's way there. I definitely think Mahomes is the guy to concentrate on the over props.
04:06And I think Herbert is definitely going to have one of those under games where they're
04:10going to try to establish the run come hell of high water here.
04:14No, I agree with you too. And there's a reason, like you don't play your starting quarterback
04:17in preseason games to come out and have a timid game plan. Like, okay, Patrick, our goals
04:21have you throw 27 times. Like they should be revved up and ready to go immediately here.
04:25Now, last night, Joe, we saw five rushing touchdowns, which is something I didn't see,
04:29but the odds makers always let you know where they want to distract you from. Hey, let's
04:34hang a minus 210 on Saquon Barkley. We don't want anybody betting that because we think he's
04:37going to score. Boom, touchdown. And a lot of books out there last night, great prop bets
04:41on the odds boost for Saquon to score. Look at that. Jalen Hurts, minus 165 price. We don't
04:46want you betting that. Why? Because he scored two rushing touchdowns. Now this game, we don't
04:50have those issues, Joe. It's all plus money. Xavier Worthy, plus 120. Omari and Hampton,
04:54plus 155. Kelsey, plus 160. McConkie, plus 165. If we're expected to get into the mid-40s of this
05:01game, that's multiple touchdowns. If you had a player tonight that you had to pick out to say,
05:05you know what, Donnie? This guy's finding pay dirt. Who's that for you tonight?
05:10Oh, I think Worthy. I think Worthy is going to, is really going to have a big game. Yeah,
05:17I really do. Because I think he's the big play guy, right? Of all those guys on the list,
05:22he is one catch away from breaking it and he's gone to the house. He is what Tyreek Hill was to
05:29this team when he was there. And I think they're going to try to get him more involved, especially
05:33with Rice, going to miss the first, you know, first month, month and a half here. I definitely
05:39think Worthy is going to be there. And if not, a lot of those other guys are going to be available
05:45then, I think, because the Chargers are going to spend a lot of time trying to make sure he
05:49doesn't burn them. By the way, if we are looking at the touchdown market, not a decent night last
05:55night, hit my best bet, which was over one and a half rushing touchdowns for the Philadelphia Eagles.
05:58They got that easily. But if I look at that Chargers backfield, knowing how much that they
06:03want to run the football and Harbaugh enjoys the run, Omari and Hampton is a plus 155. Najee Harris is
06:09supposed to play and Najee Harris maybe scores a touchdown plus 240. But if I gave you both of those
06:15options, I said, bet them both here. And again, last night, we didn't get one touchdown pass out
06:20of a game with Dak Prescott and Jalen Hurts last night with all those good wide receivers. So it
06:23happens and it's quirky. But how do we have that? How does Hampton and or Najee Harris not get a
06:28touchdown on the ground tonight when last night we saw five rushing touchdowns? Yeah, well, I tell you,
06:34I mean, Najee Harris, I believe his rushing attempts, Donnie, is six and a half. So we know Hampton is
06:40getting the start. They have said he's going to play. How much he plays Harris, we don't know.
06:47But we know with Harbaugh, we know what's going to happen. I mean, Hampton was what the 22nd overall
06:52pick this year for them. He wanted some depth in the backfield. This was already when they knew they
06:58had Najee Harris, but he wanted another back. He's going to get used a lot. I think especially in the
07:04goal line situations here. He is the guy. Najee Harris, six and a half attempts worries me, Donnie.
07:10What happens if he gets out there for the first two and they're like, yeah, no, he's not ready.
07:15He can't see. By the way, rushing props here. Isaiah Pacheco leads the game here with 47 and a half.
07:20Hampton's at 46 and a half. Last night, Joe, I bought really low on Jahan Dotson. He ended up
07:25leading the Philadelphia Eagles in receiving. Now, granted, I only took him at six and a half.
07:28The expectation, I'll ult him to 50. I didn't see that coming, but he did. The reason I ask you this
07:32question, rushing props tonight, Xavier Worthy, four and a half rushing yards. You know he's going to get a
07:38jet sweep, right? So if I tell you right now, Joe, Xavier's going to get one carry tonight. He's got
07:43to go over that four and a half, no? Yeah, I agree. I think one end around there, one of those jet
07:50sweeps, and that's going to be the end of it. Then the big question is, what do we get from
07:55Marquise Brown? You know, those are two guys you cannot let run wild either. So I think this is
08:03going to be interesting for the Chiefs on how Andy Reid, and what is Andy Reid going to do in
08:07game one? Is he emptying the playbook? Like, I don't know if we're going to see that either,
08:12though, Donnie. Let me ask you this question, too, because we have so much to talk about in
08:17this game. Tom Vecchio is going to help us out in the next segment, go over a couple of these
08:19prop bets. Travis Kelsey, 47 and a half. He's aging. It's clear he's not the same player that he once
08:25was. But I always like, like, the freshest you're going to be on the season, Joe, is opening night.
08:30What do you think about Kelsey tonight? Oh, yeah. I think he's going to have a opportunity
08:35inside the red zone there to score a touchdown. They, you know, it's his favorite guy, right?
08:41So Mahomes is going to look for him, going to have an opportunity to get it done at the price with him.
08:48It's not a bad look here because he's not going to start slow like he did last year, if you remember.
08:55I think Kelsey, and again, the starters playing all preseason long, I think they're going to be in
09:00mid-season form here tonight, this offense. I'm telling you, I like a lot of these receiving
09:04props here and one that's going to draw me in. I'm going to get a laugh out of it. It's
09:07Quentin Johnston. It's 22 and a half. You're asking him just to make catches, which means
09:12he'll be wide open. He'll be over the middle for 30 yards. Does the ball hit him in the face
09:17or does he actually catch it? Those are the questions. Tom Vecchio is going to help answer
09:21those questions next, right here on the Early Line. Right back at you here on the Early Line,
09:25on a Football Friday Sports Grid Network. The way we get down, it's Joe Renier. It's Donnie
09:29Wright. Now it's time to welcome in Tom Vecchio, one of my partners in crime right here on the
09:33Sports Grid Network. It's football season. We never rest. There's no rest. You got to be up
09:38early. You got to be in the gym. You got to be talking football. Tom, what's good, man?
09:43I'm doing good. You know, last night's game, as I was just saying during the commercial breaks,
09:47was a little bit of a letdown, a little bit anticlimactic, whatever you want to call it. You know,
09:52so many of the props were looking so good. Dak fell just short of his pass attempts. The total
09:57at one point was sitting at about 60-61, the live total. And obviously, we don't get anywhere near
10:01that after the weather delay. And these teams were scoring just like at a torrid pace in the first
10:07half. And then it's punt, punt, punt, punt, punt to end the game. So, you know, we saw the Cowboys
10:12cover. We saw the underhit, which I guess were theoretically correlated. They would be covering
10:16a larger spread in a lower scoring game. But we're on to today and we're on to this weekend.
10:20Absolutely. And we are on to today with another live NFL football game, an eight o'clock kickoff
10:26from Brazil. We saw it last year, Tom Packers and the Philadelphia Eagles. We're going to do it again,
10:29this time with the Kansas City Chiefs and the Los Angeles Chargers. Line opened up in the summer
10:34months, minus two and a half for the Chiefs. We're now seeing threes across the board. The total,
10:38which is actually 44 and a half of the opening number at some outlets, now sits at 46 and a half.
10:42Tom, what's your thoughts and your process tonight on looking at this game between the Chiefs and the
10:45Chargers? Really tough, just because we are dealing with such a unique circumstance,
10:50in terms of the environment. So, you know, seeing people talk about trends, you know,
10:55Andy Reid on the road when he's a favorite of the X points or fewer, something that doesn't really
11:00matter to me because they're on the road. Like this is not just a normal road game where they
11:04leave on Saturday afternoon, they get in, they get out, they come away with the win. Like
11:07it's obviously very different. I think some of the lines for the player props are super efficient,
11:13especially after the Rice suspension news, specifically Worthy, who's now up to 60 yards.
11:18I have no interest in betting that. I think that market is super spot on, you know,
11:23go to something like Hollywood Brown, Marquise Brown, you know, a couple of deep shots from him.
11:26He can get over that number in two catches really. So I kind of like Brown. And then knowing that
11:31Hampton is starring for the Chargers, I wouldn't mind his TV prop as well.
11:35All right. We've heard a lot over the last couple of months here by Mahomes and Matt Nagy and this
11:43Chiefs team where it's no secret. They, they have not been throwing the ball deep at all. And in fact,
11:50I mean, he he's been like, you know, five yard curl Charlie here, Patrick Mahomes, the last couple of
11:55seasons, they have gone out of their way to make it a point and say that will not happen again this
12:01year, which I think is a big reason why we saw them so much in the preseason. It feels like we should
12:08be taking advantage as much as we can with Mahomes, the passing yards over the receivers. What do you
12:14think? I think that's a good point. And, you know, we can tie some of this into, and I guess we're
12:20talking about Travis Kelsey in the previous segment, but like all this works together where like there
12:23were Travis Kelsey retirement rumors prior to this season. So if they're saying like, listen,
12:29this may be our last like actual go at things with this team. That means we have to be trusting
12:34the homes. We have to be trusting the default. We have to be trusting his yards. Like,
12:37you know, seeing Pacheco and Kareem Hunt in the backfield, I think that's a good running back
12:41room. By no means is that great. By no means are people ranking Pacheco as one of the top
12:45running backs in the league. So when push comes to shove, do we just trust Mahomes time and time
12:49again for the yards, for the longest completion, whatever it might be. And then same thing with
12:54Kelsey. Like if you want to trust him knowing getting up the seam for 47 yards, he could do that
12:58in three catches and he gets 15 yard chunks. That's what we should be leaning into. And in two or
13:03three weeks, if they're not doing that, then we just adjust.
13:07We got Tom Vecchio here. See him all around the sports grid network, giving that great insight
13:11on any sport you ask for. Tom comes up with some gems, which I'm going to ask you about this next
13:15game. Not tonight, Tom, Sunday afternoon, one o'clock from the Meadowlands. That's the
13:19Pittsburgh Steelers and the New York Jets. I know you got a couple angles in this one. What do we got?
13:22Yeah, let's get to it. So starting off with DK Metcalf over 54 and a half receiving yards. This is very
13:28simple. When it comes to the Steelers, they went out and traded him. They gave him all this money and
13:32extended him. And when you look at the Steelers lineup overall, Calvin Austin, Roman Wilson,
13:37Pat Farmer, none of those players should be reasonably taking targets away from DK Metcalf.
13:43He is the guy to throw the ball to. So just get him the ball, get it early, get it going often.
13:48I know this game is a lower total. And on the other side of this, actually, like Justin Fields
13:52under 27 and a half passing attempts. We know that the Steelers are going to be without Cam Hayward,
13:58one of their run stoppers. They're also going to be without Derek Harmon. So,
14:01and we got a report yesterday from Dan Graziano from ESPN saying that the Jets plan to run
14:06the ball, feature a heavy run game. So just Fields is just not going to be thrown 30 plus times.
14:10It's just not going to happen between Fields himself, Grease Hall and Braylon Allen. They're
14:14going to run the ball and it's just going to take opportunities away from Fields. So DK over,
14:18Fields under.
14:20So there's a lot of teams where, Tom, we're hoping that we see different versions than what we got
14:27last year. You had been big on Arizona heading into the season here. And the one thing Arizona
14:34hopes changes is that can, can Trey McBride get in the end zone a couple of times? Just,
14:38I don't know. I mean, Kenny, cause he couldn't last year at all.
14:42He couldn't last year. And like I said, I am high on Arizona in terms of them being more competitive.
14:48They got off to a really good start last year. I got to say it was very vocal against them just
14:52because they were beating up on all these non-playoff teams. So when you're going five and
14:56two, six and two, and you know, five of your six wins against non-playoff teams, that doesn't
15:00impress me. But they ended the season well. I'm not going to say it was great, but I like what
15:05they've done with Gannon, their head coach. And when it comes to Trey McBride, he was absolutely
15:09awesome last year. And when you look at his game log, he had two receptions, two receiving
15:14touchdowns, I should say, two receiving touchdowns. And he came in the last two weeks of the season.
15:17He had a rushing touchdown before he had a receiving touchdown. But when you're dealing with a player
15:20that has a 28% target share and a 32% red zone target share, him simply not scoring his
15:26variance, he was on the bad side of variance last year for being that involved in the offense.
15:30So this year, I like the narrative that he just gets the touchdown in the first week of
15:34the season, the thing he literally couldn't do until the last weeks of the year.
15:38Dominant tight end. Absolutely love the guy here. Maybe he does shine opening day. Let me ask
15:42you this question all off season long. I kept saying, I don't understand the 49ers. They just
15:47seem too injured to me. Christian McCaffrey's taking pictures. He's jacked up
15:50he's ready to go. I wasn't buying it. And he pops up, Tom, on the report with a calf injury
15:55before we start. How are we playing the Niners and McCaffrey this year? Come on.
15:59You're playing it with a Brian Robinson TD bet. If you can get that in any time. They traded
16:05for him. They like him. And then Shannon said he's our number two back. He has a bigger background
16:08goal line. I saw him last night at 380. I did manage to get a Brian Robinson TD bet in
16:15plus 500 before the books move the number. So I have that. But if you get him at 300, take it.
16:21Smart wagers by Tom Vecchio. It's what he does. Now, what's the rest of your day here? You're
16:25getting lifts in here. You're doing more football content. What are you doing the rest of the
16:28day? Jim, right after this football, the rest of the day, all weekend of football.
16:33That's a real man right there. That's Tom Vecchio. And he's ours on the Sports Grid
16:36Network. We'll have him on all throughout football season to break it all down. It's
16:40Johnny Wright's out. It's Joe and here. We'll be right back. Sunday night football. Anybody?
16:44Yeah, we'll talk about it. Are you ready for some football? A Sunday night party. Oh my goodness,
16:50man. Like the NFL does it right. They do. They gave you Dallas, Philadelphia opening night.
16:55They're going to give you the Chiefs and the Chargers night number two in prime time. And the
16:59next biggest time slot. Like, yes, we love the one o'clock games and the four or five games and the
17:03425 games. But Sunday night football, we want this rematch. Two of the best teams in the AFC
17:08anticipated to kick off their 2025 season. That's the Baltimore Ravens and the Buffalo Bills. Lamar
17:14Jackson, Josh Allen, NDPs, superstars all over. How about this? The favorite? Not the Buffalo Bills at
17:20home. It's the Baltimore Ravens at one and a half at just about every single outlet. A totalist game
17:25that's listed at 50 and a half. Let's start there, Joe. The favorites are the Ravens. Do you agree?
17:30No, I do not. But you want to give me one and a half. I mean, listen, here's the situation. I will
17:40take the Buffalo Bills at home at even money or better getting point anytime. You know, the only
17:49where I would look, maybe step back with Buffalo is if they're laying an obnoxious number. But if
17:55you're going to give me that kind of price and that kind of number with the Bills at home, yeah,
18:01no. You know, it's not like the Ravens are going to be statistically any better than they were last
18:08year. They were absolutely dominating last year. And guess what? Yeah, they beat the Bills in a
18:12regular season. But what happened in the postseason? Oh, yeah, that's right. You lost. So if I'm
18:18Buffalo, maybe part of me is like, you know what? Let's not win this game because we're probably seeing
18:23them in the postseason and we'll handle it then. But at home, at plus money, Donnie, I'm going to
18:29take Buffalo in game one here. I do think there are still some question marks on the offensive line
18:35for Baltimore. And I don't think they're going to be as good rushing the passer like they were a year
18:42ago. I think there's going to be a little bit of regression here. Having said that, the market thinks
18:46the total was a little too high, too. It was 51 and a half a couple of weeks ago. And now we're
18:51starting to see the under money come in. Yeah, let me take a look here at this game, too. I just
18:55want to see. So we'll go Sunday night football about the weather conditions up there in Orchard
18:59Park. We it's not looks like 57 degrees, which is hilarious that we're already that cool
19:04temperatures, very light winds and no precipitation. So a perfect night for football. Let's not have
19:09any cramping up because I want to take a look at the touchdown market, which I think is
19:12interesting. No surprise. It's Derek Henry minus 150 price leader in the clubhouse. He probably
19:16does score a touchdown. Everybody else around that plus money or higher. But some of the
19:20numbers I look at and in big games, Joe, early in the season, if you're running quarterback,
19:25sometimes you do it with your legs. And that's not like recency bias. Hey, to see Jalen Hurts
19:29scored two touchdowns last night. Jalen Hurts is mobile. That's what he does. You know who else is
19:32mobile? It's Josh Allen and it's Lamar Jackson. Josh Allen sitting around a plus 100 or so for that
19:38anytime touchdown. But Lamar Jackson, you're getting as high as a two to one price point at a lot of books
19:44out here. If we look at the quarterback positions, do we think both of these guys can get in?
19:48Because as I said, big game opening night, my legs are fresh. Hey, passing isn't there. I'll run it.
19:54Well, you know, one of the highest total games, right? So those prices there reflect a lot of
20:00people that can get it into the end zone on both of these teams. But you got to love James Cook in
20:08this spot. We saw this right in the playoff game. Cook scored, I believe twice, ran for 85 yards,
20:1413 carries. He had a ton of success against this defense last year when I think they were better.
20:21I don't see any reason for him not to find the end zone in this one. The problem with both Lamar
20:29and Josh Allen is in game one. Are we really, are we sacrificing these guys? Are we pulling their
20:35number inside the two yard line? And does Andrews get a chance to redeem himself by not dropping a
20:42touchdown pass in this game? He needs to, he absolutely needs to. Maybe they come back because
20:47Lamar Jackson's a good guy. He might just go to him early and often say, Hey man, all forgiven last
20:51year. Let's go have a big game and a big season. Rushing props for the quarterbacks quickly here.
20:55Josh Allen, 31 and a half. And then Lamar Jackson at 46 and a half. Let's focus on the passing props
21:00for these two NDP quarterbacks. Josh Allen, 229 and a half. Lamar Jackson is actually higher at 233 and
21:07a half and the touchdown throwing marketplace over one and a half for both of these guys. Minus 114 for
21:12Allen, minus 130 for Lamar Jackson. Look at Lamar Jackson with more juice here right now in the passing
21:17game, Joe. Yeah. While he's still, I mean, it's kind of crazy, right? What do you have? 41 touchdowns
21:24last season. And I mean, that's kind of crazy. He had 17 in the final eight games alone. So the year
21:32prior. So I think it's a good bet. It's minus 130 for over one and a half touchdown for a reason,
21:39Dottie. It's that price for a reason. And yes, I think, I think that's a good bet in this spot.
21:45I'm looking at a fan right now. Only three props for wide receiver receiving yards. Now granted it's
21:50Friday. You're going to wait for Saturday and Sunday. Zay Flowers, 57 and a half. Mark Andrews,
21:5444 and a half. And Rashad Bateman, 36 and a half. Nothing up there for the Buffalo Bills. Interesting.
22:01And hour number two comes up next. We're only getting started to early line. Don't you go
22:05anywhere. It's Joe and Donnie in the morning. Oh, college football with Coach Bowden. You know,
22:10you got to love that people, but you know what else we love? You get excited because we watched the
22:14game last night, Joe. We're going to have another game tonight, which we already went over the Kansas
22:17City Chiefs, you know, neutral site, Brazil, Los Angeles Chargers. But now we got to check out
22:22the schedule for the rest of the weekend here. And it starts with basically where it ends on
22:26Monday night football. There is intrigue people, the Minnesota Vikings and the Chicago Bears.
22:31It's JJ McCarthy's debut in the NFL as a starting quarterback going up against Caleb Williams,
22:35who struggled at times last year because they have a defensive coordinator as a head coach.
22:39Now he does it. He has genius Ben Johnson, but we see the Chicago Bears getting one and a half
22:44points on their home turf going up against the Vikings in a total of 43 and a half. By the way,
22:49that's down from 45 and a half over the summer. What the expectations are for you, Joe Ranieri,
22:55for both of these offenses, maybe new look. Yeah. Well, you know, what are we getting from JJ
23:01McCarthy is going to be everyone's big question because the market seems to think that you're
23:06going to get a guy that, you know, despite his injury last year, wasn't able to play. You know what
23:11he was, he was in the system is what he was. So he was able to do what a lot of young quarterbacks
23:18should be able to do. And that's not have to worry about playing, but understanding the playbook
23:23and understanding exactly what his role is going to be for next year. So I don't think there's going
23:29to be a lot of lag time here. I think McCarthy is going to come out. I think he's acclimated to
23:33the system here. I think he's going to be good. I am not under any circumstances,
23:37a big Caleb Williams fan here, then Johnson aside, great young, you know, offensive minded
23:44coach here. But the market is telling you that, I mean, they're going into Chicago and they are a
23:52favorite. And I think they're a favorite for a reason. Ah, by the way, this is one of those bets
23:57where it's week one tough. This is to get a handle. And the odds makers are telling you that
24:02like, yeah, throw the one and a half out there and see what happens in this game. This is one where
24:05it's like, okay, back to Chicago bears. I can't believe that. Like the bears aren't ready for
24:09prime time or you bet Minnesota on the road. Like I told you the bears would be a really good
24:12football team. I can't believe that you bet the Minnesota Vikings. It feels like one of those,
24:16but the touchdown maker market here for Monday night, Justin Jefferson, plus one 20 price,
24:21Deandre's fifth plus one 30, Aaron Jones plus one 50. There's good price points across the board,
24:26but also as you just talked about that line low Joe, like why are we taking a look at two
24:30offensive guru teams here at a low forties number? What am I missing?
24:35Well, I think the, the, one of the big reasons why Minnesota is the favorite is that defense,
24:40uh, that defense goes on the road and you know, what's going to happen there. Uh, that team is
24:46going to go after Caleb Williams and yeah. Yeah. And you know, Flores is going to have him. And guess
24:52what happens when you put pressure on Caleb Williams? Uh, it's not good. I do think Chicago's defense is
24:57just as good. I I'd be worried about some of these props here, Donnie, because how are we getting
25:04to 44 points? Like I, to me, this is going to be a defensive battle back and forth.
25:10Mr. Jones and me. Remember that song? Well, we're talking about Daniel Jones at this point. Now we're
25:15not back in the 1990s. We're in the here and now the Miami dolphins and to a tag of Ilo on the road
25:21to take on Daniel Jones, who had that on their bingo card this year. And also we just talked about a
25:27game on Monday night football. Joe, let's listen at one and a half. We're going to now talk about this
25:30game listed at one and a half as a favorite towards the home team Colts, 46 and a half to 47 and a half
25:36as a total in this game. I'm telling you week one, there are landmines and it just feels like
25:41you're going to step on one this weekend. And it just might be the dolphins and the Colts.
25:47Yeah. I mean, listen, it's indoors. It's on the turf. Tyreek Hill is playing and I'm sorry. Uh,
25:55the weapons of Miami offensively, uh, with Tua throwing them the ball, they've already shown us
26:01that they can, they'll put up a ton of points offensively with the conditions, right? Daniel
26:07Jones is not going to go toe to toe with Tua and those receivers with what he's got there. I think
26:14Miami goes on a road and wins this game because well, they've got the better quarterback and they've
26:20got the better receivers with no conditions to worry about. I think Miami rolls, by the way,
26:26how are you playing Tyreek Hill in this game? Joe, right? Healthy to start the season. As you said,
26:29on turf, not a great football team here. His touchdown market is a plus one 35. Do you look
26:34towards the touchdown is explosion or how about just his usage rate catches and the or over yards?
26:40Yeah. And I think Tua and has spent a lot of time this off season talking about how they are on
26:45the same page and everything is Kumbaya. And well, well, let's let, he's going to get him the ball
26:51a lot, I think in this game. So I like all of those angles. 68 and a half for Tyreek Hill. That could be
26:58one catch right there. Jalen Waddle, 57 and a half. Michael Pittman Jr. here, the wide receiver for the
27:03Colts. He's listed at 46 and a half, but it's Daniel Jones. How exciting can you be? Let me see what
27:09Tua has, because we've talked about it, Joe, the Miami Dolphins. You lose this football game
27:14to Daniel Jones. I understand it's a road game and it's a close spread. It's hard to win on the
27:18NFL. It's week number one. This could go off the rails quickly. It feels like they need this game,
27:23Joe, the Dolphins to win this one going away. You know, us needs a victory. Jets and the Steelers.
27:28Let's talk about that game next for Sunday. I feel like singing again here, Joe Ranieri. I'm back.
27:34Oh, back in the New York groove. Is that Aaron Rodgers? That was going to be on his headset
27:39when he steps into the stadium this week at MetLife to take on the New York Jets,
27:43the conquering hero. Well, I don't know if he's a hero to Jets fans at that point. Didn't have all
27:47that good a season and also understandably got injured within the first three plays of the season
27:51before that. But he's coming back as a Steeler and the Steelers are a favorite, Joe. Two and a
27:56half to threes, depending on where you're shopping at. And look at this total, 37 and a half.
28:00Rock them, sock them, robots. Is there any way that Aaron Rodgers can show his face back in
28:07Pittsburgh if he loses this game to the Jets and Justin Fields? Oh no, by the way, Joe,
28:11Justin Fields was not a Jet last year. He was a Steeler. Moving parts here. Musical chairs.
28:18Yeah, this is going to be ugly. And the market is telling you it's going to be ugly at 37 and a half
28:27here. And listen, we've already heard, right? We've heard Coach Glenn there, the Jets talk about,
28:32listen, we are going to run the football. We are going to be a running smash mouth team.
28:36And guess what Pittsburgh is? Exactly what they are. I do not expect all of a sudden Aaron Rodgers to
28:43want to drop back with a questionable offensive line with Pittsburgh and be like, all right,
28:49we're going to throw the ball 45. Not with that Jets pass rush, you're not. So I think the total
28:54is low for a reason here. You're not going to get a athletic or mobile Aaron Rodgers, right? So both
29:02teams are going to try to run the ball down each other's throats there. And to me, it's all about,
29:08okay, who do we trust? I trust a more athletic quarterback that can run, believe it or not,
29:14because he can use his legs, probably won't have to use his arm all that much in Justin Fields. So
29:19I think the Jets have the edge here simply because they're more dangerous with Fields running than
29:27with Aaron, than the Jets have to worry about when Aaron Rodgers running. Yeah. Justin Fields rushing
29:32prop in this game, 42 and a half receiving props, which you know, going to be low from a Jets side
29:36because it's Justin Fields throwing the football. Garrett Wilson at 54 and a half sounds like a lot of
29:40yards, but he is going to be the main target all day long for the Jets. But you're right about this.
29:45We're not expecting this to be pretty. Somebody has to win and they're probably going to win ugly
29:49in this game. Let's get to the Jacksonville Jaguars. A lot of expectations this year on
29:53the Jags. Why? Liam Cohen comes to town. You trade up in the draft. You got Travis Hunter. He'll start at
29:57wide receiver, but also it's time for the Carolina Panthers to start to stand up and say,
30:02we might be able to be a player in the NFC South. The favorites though, are the Jaguars at a three and a
30:07half point line and a total of 46 and a half. I do have some good expectations for the Jaguars,
30:12but is this one of those games that you start week one and say, well, Carolina is supposed to be an
30:16easy victory. And oh no, look, Carolina has got a young quarterback finally playing well with Dave
30:20Canales. No, it's interesting, right? Because why is the hook still available, Donnie? Why is this
30:27still three and a half at this particular point? So I think that's telling because why would you leave
30:33that out there? Are we expecting it to go? Are we going to get that last minute push for Panther
30:39money to come in? I think this is an interesting game. I also think it's one where, you know,
30:45given the weapons on both sides and given the propensity of both defenses to give up a lot,
30:52you know, this feels like a good old, could be a good old fashioned shootout here between the two
30:57quarterbacks and Xavier Leggett on one side, Brian Thomas on it. This feels like a shootout to me.
31:04We might get some points here with these two defenses. That's what we have here on this. And
31:08also, if you are looking from a survivor pool perspective here, the New Orleans Saints and the
31:12Arizona Cardinals probably going to be high on that list and not for back in New Orleans for the
31:17Arizona Cardinals. But understand this, Spencer Ratzel, Spencer Ratzel, excuse me, had a pretty good
31:22preseason. And you say like, well, this team's supposed to stink this year. You know, it's supposed to
31:26really stink last year and technically did was New England. You know, they had Jacoby Brissett on the
31:30road and picked up a victory over the Cincinnati Bengals. Could be that this type of environment
31:34here. The Cardinals are roughly a touchdown favorite and a total of 42 and a half. I smell a rat in this
31:40game. How about that? Yeah, I see blowout in this game. You know, sometimes when it walks like a duck
31:46and talks like a duck, guys, it's a duck. Do not overthink this. This is a awful Saints team.
31:52Anybody who watched them in preseason, it's I don't care who they throw under center. It doesn't
31:58it's not going to make a difference. This is a bad team. And I do think I think it's a big year for
32:03coach cannon. I think Arizona is loaded with a lot of weapons returning. The offensive line has been
32:10much improved. I think Kyler Murray runs all over him, throws all over him. I think Arizona runs away
32:15with this one. By the way, talking about a bad football team, it's supposed to be this year,
32:19right? So New Orleans Saints, you know, we're talking about being a bad football team this year,
32:21record wise, at least the New York football Giants. They're going to take on the Washington
32:25Commanders one o'clock on Sunday, NFC East battle. This line over the summer, Joe, we had sevens in
32:30the marketplace. That's gone. We're down to five and a half and sixes at just about every outlet in
32:35a total of 45 and a half. Are the Giants sneaky in this game? Because the expectations and the love
32:41for Washington after their season last year, and their young quarterback in Jaden Daniels, rightfully so.
32:46But also the Giants expectations coming in this year out, we don't know. Darts playing well,
32:50Russell get the start. There's some talent, particularly on that defensive line. Could
32:54we see a Giants win or at least a cover this Sunday down in Landover, Maryland?
32:59Well, you can, you know, count me in as to one of those betters that was pushing this line down
33:05from where it opened. Because let me just tell you this. I am not sure the commanders are any better
33:12this year than they were last year. I can promise you the Giants are better this year than they were
33:19last year. And yet the commanders won amazingly by three because the Giants didn't have a kicker.
33:26Everybody had gotten hurt and they, they lost by three and they lost by five.
33:30This defense of the Giants, Lawrence Burns, Thibodeau, Abdul Carter, all healthy. That's a
33:38problem for Jaden Daniels and this Washington team. I think the Giants are very alive in this game.
33:43I'm interested to watch that because I do want to see what the Giants have. And again,
33:47having a ticket in my pocket for the season on ESPN bet over three and a half for the Giants.
33:51Oh, I would like a little upset on opening day on the road against the Washington commanders.
33:55We'll see if that happens. Tampa Bay, what are they known for? Well, they won a Super Bowl with
33:59Tom Brady. They won a Super Bowl back in the day with John Gruden, but now they're known for winning
34:03this division. It seems like every single year, you got a good one on opening day. Tampa Bay is going to
34:07travel to Atlanta. It's Baker Mayfield versus Michael Penix Jr. One and a half point spread. This is a favorite for the
34:13road team currently right now, the Buccaneers, 47 and a half, 46 and a half, depending on where
34:18he's shopping at as a total. We already don't like how the season is going to start for Atlantic
34:22as the offensive line is banged up. Is that enough to win this football game or is Tampa just going to
34:26be too much, Joe, Sunday? Well, this is a game that I absolutely love quarterback props. I love
34:32Baker Mayfield in this spot here. And we've seen some crazy shootouts with Atlanta and Tampa here.
34:40But, you know, Atlanta's defense given up, what, nearly 25 a game last year. And they focused more
34:47on getting Michael Penix Jr. help in the offseason than they did solidifying that defense. We know
34:54what Bowles is going to bring. We know what Rashad White is going to bring. I think Tampa scores a
35:00whole lot in this game. I'd be looking to center my prop bets around Baker Mayfield overpassing and
35:07touchdowns. Oh, you're settling in here on some good quarterback play, which we are expecting for
35:12Joe Burrow in the Cincinnati Bengals. They played in the preseason. Congratulations. Now we start the
35:16regular season and they take on the Cleveland Browns. Last year should have been easy victory
35:20opening weekend there at home against the Patriots. They lost. Now they go on the road as five and a
35:25half point favorites here and a total 47 and a half to 48 and a half. Flacco and Burrow. Is it just
35:30too easy for the Bengals or can we see something come up and rise like, oh, I got some good players
35:36on the Browns, maybe limited, but they could win this maybe. Home divisional underdogs since 2012
35:44and we won 18 and four against the number. The Browns will keep this game close. I don't care how
35:53many preseason games Joe Burrow played. The Browns will keep this close.
35:59Look at that. Keeping it close there. Flacco and the boys getting ready. Myles Garrett sacking
36:03quarterbacks. We'll see. I want to see what Jamar Chase has up his sleeve in this game. And if he starts
36:07his offensive player of the year tour in game number one, wouldn't mind to see it. How about the
36:11England Patriots? They're home this weekend against the Vegas Raiders. That's Geno versus May. Two and a
36:17half point spread. Favorite at home here for the Patriots. Are the Patriots ready to be favorites this year
36:22and make a run to the playoffs, Joe? This number was higher and I've seen nothing over the last
36:28month, but Vegas money getting three points here, which is push this down. So the Patriots have become
36:36a very big public darling and we haven't played a game yet. That would worry me. It would worry me
36:43here, Donnie. So yeah, I would look maybe to tease the Raiders up and over. I'm worried about it,
36:50guys. Half muscle right now. Which running back is that? Find out next right here on the early
36:54line. As the Joker used to say, riddle me this, Batman. Is Christian McCaffrey going to be healthy
36:59for game number one of the season, let alone game number five, seven, nine, 10, 11, and 12?
37:04Those are the questions that we need answers because popping up on the practice report
37:08midweek with a calf strain, that's never a good sign. And Dr. Donnie, I play one on TV.
37:14I don't, if that is a calf strain, he's not playing this weekend. And as I said before,
37:18Joe, if it is and he plays, he will get injured and you might not see him from weeks to months
37:22after this game. That brings up an interesting dilemma here. Why? The San Francisco 49ers are
37:27on the road to take on the Seattle Seahawks. Divisional game, could be pivotal in the season,
37:33minus one and a half point spread here. Favorite for the road team, San Francisco. Sam Darnold's
37:38going to make his debut for the Seahawks and that total sits at 43 and a half. But you see the
37:43marker right there. Christian McCaffrey's on the left side of that screen. How effective can he be,
37:48Joe, with a calf strain already? Well, they're already in damage control here because, you know,
37:56Thursday, yesterday, right? He practiced, opened the reporters early. He was on the field to start,
38:03but didn't go through the practice. And he's listed now as limited. And then, of course,
38:09his scheduled media session, guess what? That was postponed here. So they're already running
38:16interference for him here. And it's an issue. It's always been an issue, unfortunately, with him.
38:22Last year, he missed eight games. This is a, I don't care how easy the schedule is. The 49ers
38:28are not the same team without a healthy Christian McCaffrey. Brian Robinson is not Christian McCaffrey.
38:35No. Yeah. I, I'm not running to the window backing anything with this 49ers team right now.
38:41Nope. Doesn't look that way at this point. The highest spread of the week in the National Football
38:46League for week number one, the game we're going to talk about next. The Tennessee Titans on the
38:49road with their rookie quarterback, Cam Ward, going up against Bo Nix, a young quarterback in the NFL
38:54that had a very successful rookie campaign. This line opened up at seven in the summer. We now sit at
38:58eight and a half across the board. Is this too easy for the Denver Broncos? Or is this one that you say to
39:04yourself, look, I think Denver wins. I don't know if they cover the spread or can we be live with a
39:09rookie quarterback in his first career start in elevation? Yeah, no, Denver is going to win and
39:14win by a million. I expect nothing short of that here with the Broncos. Defensively, they are just
39:23absolutely ferocious. I do not see a situation in which we are going to get a ton of offense from
39:31Tennessee with a rookie quarterback. I do think, however, especially in altitude, I do think Denver pulls
39:36away in the second half. I think Bo Nix continues right where he left off last year with good old the coach
39:43there. So to me, Denver, lay it and look for a team total under with Tennessee.
39:50By the way, also like Sean Payton, obviously we know did a wonderful job with Bo Nix. Expectations are high for the
39:55season, but understand this too. Denver's got a really good defense. That's a rookie quarterback in
39:59elevation week number one. Are the lights going to be too bright? Now we know Cam Ward is a cool
40:04operator, man, but it's a different level going into Denver for game number one with expectations
40:08and the Broncos having a good season and getting off to a great start here. How about this one,
40:13Joe? 425 on Sunday. There's a reason why this is the primetime afternoon game. It's Detroit and it's
40:18Green Bay. The favorite, not Detroit. It's Green Bay at home. Green Bay just got Micah Parsons.
40:23We don't know if Micah Parsons is going to play it. If he does play, probably will be on a pitch
40:27count, but I got to tell you, I do agree with the line. I think the Packers should be favorite and I
40:31think the Packers win opening day against the lines. Yeah, there are a couple of fantastic opportunities
40:39now that it is NFL season back for teasers here, Donnie, six point teasers. I will take any,
40:46you want to give me Detroit getting eight and a half points. I don't care who they're playing here.
40:52I think this is going to be a fun one, but ultimately even outside of the teaser until I
40:59see it, Green Bay, I think there's a whole lot of hype around, you know, Parsons here, but I still,
41:07I'm still a little iffy on Green Bay. I would back Detroit certainly in a teaser opportunity as well.
41:14You know, it's funny about this too, Joe, because like we don't have the, the players are there.
41:19They're almost identical to what they were last year. Like the system is going to stay,
41:23say what the same or somewhat the same, I should say. But when you look at the offensive coordinator,
41:27the play calls coming in, do we question those? But this is like, again, week one, this is what's
41:32so fantastic. When I look at this and I say to myself, like, I really took the Packers against
41:36the lions. Like, well, what was I thinking? Like Jameer Gibbs ran wild, you know, Montgomery's
41:41punching runs in from the one, the offense can't be stopped. And there's Jordan Love throwing
41:44interceptions. Like this guy's just not as good as Jared golf is. But then there's the part of him
41:48that goes like, yeah, it is real. You lose your defensive coordinator and your offensive
41:52coordinator. It's going to take some time to gel out there. And the Green Bay Packers are
41:55riding that lightning right now from that Micah Parsons trade. These are the ones where you put
41:58your money in, you press the lever down and go, I'm an idiot at this point, right?
42:04Yep. Well, I mean, especially Detroit swept the season series last year. They've won six of the
42:09last seven against this team and coaching staff. I mean, to me, this is just a whole lot of hype
42:17for Green Bay and a whole lot of overreaction because of how everything ended last year for
42:23Detroit. Two new coordinators, doesn't matter. That system's already been in place. So I do think
42:29Detroit is the better team. And I think they'll end up showing it in week one.
42:34How about this game? Houston and Los Angeles, two teams looking to buy for the divisions,
42:38obviously in the AFC, the Houston Texans may be taking that next step this year, if they can stay
42:42healthy. And then you take a look at Matthew Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams. No sexier
42:47team, as I call in the off season with aspirations to get back and win a Superbowl. But Matthew Stafford
42:53struggled in the preseason, not with performance, just with injury to his back. He's going to line
42:58up. The Rams say he's going to be fine. He looks great in practice. And away we go. They're a three
43:02point favorite over the Texans with a total of 43 and a half. That's a low total. Both of these defenses
43:07should be able to put heat on the quarterback. But the question is, can Matthew Stafford stand up
43:11that heat once he gets knocked down? Yeah, this feels like Houston is a live dog in this spot
43:19here. That is a legit defense that goes and gets after it. New offensive coordinator, by the way,
43:26for Houston and CJ Stroud did not work out all that well for him last year. Started games off
43:33extremely slow when MIA in the second half. I think I think things turn around for Houston this year.
43:40And I think they are live on the road inside. Good games, man. You exit like those two four o'clock
43:46games, Detroit, Green Bay, Houston, and the Los Angeles Rams. Make sure you have your ticket
43:50purchased where you can watch both of those games or red zone for a couple whopper, whopper,
43:55whopper commercials for those games here. How about that? Come on. I'll be covering it on
44:00in-game live here on Sunday. So there's no reason to go anywhere but right here.
44:05Second screen in the business, Joe Rainier. As a matter of fact, turn down the red zone if you have
44:09it on. Turn the sports screen up, people. It's the only way to watch. We'll close the show down
44:14in style next, people. I think as the show is going on, Joe, I'm getting more energy. It's like,
44:19you know, getting the power stone. Like, okay, I'm starting to feel the vibes. Like,
44:22oh, my back hurts. Take two Tylenol. And a half hour, 45 minutes, an hour. You do start to feel
44:26better. The voice has been a little bit weak this week, but there's no rest for the weary, Joe,
44:31when you got to bring the content to the people. You can't be dipping out. You can't be taking sick
44:35days. You can't be taking off in the month of September, Joe. Come on now. No, no, no. You
44:40got to man up. You got to get it done. It is football season, and now is the time to clear the
44:47deck, so to speak, and get it going. A little vitamin C. Get it going, Donnie. Get it going.
44:52Yes. The vibes, keep them high here. And now's the time of the program. We like to reach
44:56out to the people and see what they think about it. Here's Fade the Public.
45:07Look, if you had to work hard to try to find the Fade the Public poll today, I had to as well. I
45:11just hit the retweet button out there, but the people want to know, and answers need to be given.
45:16The question was simple. Go to our account on X at SportsGrid. The question asks,
45:21what is your favorite bet for tonight's Chiefs versus Charger game? Four options.
45:26Chiefs, Chargers, over, under. For me, I actually like the Chiefs tonight. And I know, oh, Don,
45:33you can't take the Chiefs when they lay points. You can't. Look, you're basically asking them to
45:36win the football game. If I think they win, I'm not saying they can't win by three points.
45:40Give me the Chiefs, Joe.
45:42I love it. I am with you on the Chiefs all day long. I'm telling you, everything out of Chiefs camp and
45:50everything we saw in the preseason, to me, Donnie, it is all about opening up that offense
45:56and coming out and firing, especially against a division rival and the Chargers here.
46:02By the way, Joe, is anybody out there going like, you know what? I think the Chiefs win,
46:05but I don't think they cover the three. Is that like that threading the needle? Like
46:08they win by two points in this game? How do they do it?
46:10Yeah. No, I think they win by at least a touchdown.
46:15I think that's what you're going to get.
46:18At least a touchdown. That's what I'm looking for here.
46:21And by the way, if you want some conspiracy theories, to get Taylor Swift to actually perform
46:27at the Super Bowl, they probably need the Chiefs in the Super Bowl. Hint, hint, give the Chiefs the
46:31breaks here of the season, get them back to the Super Bowl. Tinfoil hat. Tinfoil hat, Joe,
46:35but I'm just saying at this point right now, but you know what else the people need today at this
46:38point? They need winners. It's Friday. It's payday. Here's bye-bye box. I'm going to keep
46:42it simple once again. I used bet 365 yesterday on a rushing prop in the game for the Philadelphia
46:47Eagles over one and a half rushing touchdowns at a minus 140 or so price. Today, I'm going to go
46:51again over one and a half rushing touchdowns. Well, Donnie, which team are you going to pick
46:55tonight? It's going to be the Chargers or the Chiefs. How about both people? How about I get two
46:59total rushing touchdowns in this game that we saw five last night? Running is the new passing people,
47:05and that's where I'm going with my best bet. Kansas City versus Los Angeles tonight.
47:10Rushing touchdowns over one and a half for the game. Doesn't matter. The punter could get one
47:14of these and we can. Andy Reid could get a rushing touchdown and it'll still cash it for us. That's
47:19how we get down. It's Joe Renier. It's Donnie Wright's side and we are going 2-0 on our bye-bye-bye bets
47:24to end the week out here. Keep the vibes high. College football today, tomorrow. Pro football on Sunday.
47:29Pro football tonight. Lovely people. And you know what? See you bright and early once again on Monday morning.
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