00:00Fall can bring more than just cooler air. It's also the second season for severe weather.
00:05That's right, and as part of Accu with his exclusive fall forecast,
00:09meteorologist Tony Laubach joins us from Denver, Colorado to tell us where the greatest risk may set up.
00:17Yeah, and I'll give you a hint. It's not going to be here in Denver, Colorado, fortunately.
00:21More than likely, we'll start to wind things down here across the high plains
00:25after what has been a fairly busy severe weather season, not so much a tornado season,
00:29but we have certainly seen our share of severe weather, and that has continued even into this week.
00:33But we look ahead to the severe weather season.
00:36The second season starts to happen in the fall as we get back into a transitional period.
00:41As we get cooler weather that starts to move in from the north, we start to see that battle zone that sets up.
00:45Typically later into the fall, October and November, have been some busy months for me
00:50in terms of severe weather and tornadoes per se.
00:54Our AccuWeather long-range forecasters have been talking about the potential of seeing an increase in severe weather,
01:00not just with hail and damaging winds, but tornadoes.
01:04Our lead forecaster, Paul Pastelok, here breaks down exactly where he thinks we're going to see some of the big severe weather here later this season.
01:10October could be the biggest contrast set up temperature-wise between the south and the northern plain states,
01:17and that's where we may get more in the way of maybe some tornadoes late in the season in the Midwest and the Ohio Valley.
01:25And then it all shifts a little bit farther south and east, Tennessee Valley and the interior southeast as we get into November.
01:34Now, if you were with us here a couple hours ago, we were talking about how the fall season is going to set up temperature-wise.
01:41We talked about warmer-than-average temperatures that we were forecasting to extend a little bit further into the fall.
01:47That is going to kind of help fuel some of those systems that are going to roll through
01:50and bring that potential for that severe weather in October and November.
01:54Last year, if you remember, was barely a season at all, barely a second season at all,
01:58other than a couple of spot chases.
01:59There wasn't a whole lot going on after about September, and it stayed pretty quiet until the early part of this year.
02:05So that was some good news.
02:06This year, we're expecting an uptick in that severe weather,
02:09particularly as we get into the middle parts of fall, so October into November,
02:13likely to see a little bit of a smaller peak, not quite what we typically would see in the spring,
02:18but certainly one that we'll be keeping an eye on as we get closer.
02:20And obviously, as we do see those events start to take shape,
02:24I will be out tracking those storms all across the country as usual.
02:28So looking to be a semi-busy fall.
02:30We'll have to see as we get closer into October and those systems start to take shape
02:34exactly what we're going to be dealing with heading into the Halloween and Thanksgiving timeframes.
02:39All right, AccuWeather meteorologist Tony Laubach and our Storm Chaser,
02:42thank you so much for that update.
02:44And yeah, we'll definitely be checking with you here as we head into that secondary severe weather season.
