- 6 months ago
This is an in-depth Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next week and beyond. Where and when will we see showers during the next few days? And why? Bringing you this deep dive is Met Office meteorologist Aidan McGivern.
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00:00Slow-moving summer downpours. We've seen enough of them during the last few days and we're going to see more of them during the next few days.
00:08But when will they occur? Where will they occur? And because this is the Metalfiz Deep Dive, why will they occur?
00:15This week I'm going to be taking an in-depth look at the kinds of tools that meteorologists here at the Met Office use for predicting these kinds of slow-moving summer thunderstorms and downpours
00:25that helps to explain why they occur and why they occur in certain places and not in other places.
00:31I'm going to be taking a look at the showers we're expecting on Wednesday as a little case study.
00:36This is the Metalfiz Deep Dive. It's an in-depth look at the weather across the UK and we do this every Tuesday on our YouTube channel.
00:44We also do it for our Spotify channel. If you're not already following us on Spotify, I do encourage you to start doing so.
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00:58if they, like hopefully you, enjoy these in-depth discussions of the UK's weather.
01:05Now, we've seen a lot of showers and thunderstorms over the past few days.
01:10This is the radar imagery from the last 24 hours.
01:14And you can see the speckled nature of the showers across much of the country, but also some longer spells of wet weather.
01:20We started the week with some particularly nasty rainfall across parts of Northern Ireland.
01:25An amber warning was issued for Sunday night into the start of Monday because of the signal for some very heavy rain across parts of Northern Ireland.
01:33And for the 24 hours of Monday itself, Kilowen in Northern Ireland saw 72 millimetres of rain,
01:40bearing in mind that the average July rainfall for Northern Ireland is 88 millimetres.
01:44So, not far off a month's worth of rain on Monday in Kilowen, for example.
01:50Other spots across Northern Ireland recorded similar amounts.
01:56And we also saw that weather move into western and northwestern Scotland.
02:00And in these regions, northern and northwest Scotland, Northern Ireland,
02:04we saw impacts from that heavy rain, localised flooding and travel disruption.
02:09Elsewhere across the UK on Monday, we saw a lot of heavy showers across central and eastern parts of the country.
02:14Further showers are now starting to develop at the time of recording across central and eastern and southern parts of the UK.
02:23But what I want to focus on are the showers we're expecting to happen on Wednesday
02:29because that is a particularly interesting setup and helps to explain why these summer downpours happen,
02:35how they can become slow moving and how they can cause big impacts in some places and very few impacts in others.
02:42And first, I want to take a look at something that we don't often look at in our forecasts,
02:48which is the temperature at 300 hectopascals in the atmosphere.
02:54We're often looking at the winds at 300 hectopascals in the atmosphere, otherwise known as the jet stream.
03:01Here's the jet stream on a more familiar chart with the surface pressure laid out, the weather fronts.
03:07And the jet stream there is a circulation of winds at 300 hectopascals in the atmosphere.
03:13What does that even mean, 300 hectopascals in the atmosphere?
03:17It's basically a pressure level and the height of which varies across the globe.
03:22Now, at the surface, at sea level, the pressure is more typically about 1,000 hectopascals.
03:29The average surface pressure is 1,013.
03:32So when you get up to 1,020, 1,025, it's higher pressure like this.
03:37When you get down to the 990s, it's lower pressure like these features.
03:42And so we're used to talking about these highs and lows because they determine our weather.
03:47We also have highs and lows in the upper atmosphere.
03:49But the way that we look at those is not how high or how low the pressure is at a certain height, say 5,000 feet or 30,000 feet.
03:59We look at the height of pressure levels.
04:03So it's the other way around.
04:04The height of pressure surfaces, pressure levels above the surface.
04:09And so the 300 hectopascal pressure level, that's typically about 30,000 feet or 10 kilometers above sea level.
04:21But it varies.
04:22Above the equator, it's higher because the air above the equator is on average warmer than the poles.
04:29And warmer air expands.
04:31And so that pushes the 300 hectopascal pressure level up higher than it would be over the poles, where it's lower because the air is colder and more dense.
04:43It's basically lower down in the atmosphere.
04:47So say 11 kilometers, 12 kilometers above the equator and then 8, 9 kilometers above the poles.
04:55So what I'm going to show you now is the temperature at that pressure level, the actual air temperature at 300 hectopascals, bearing in mind that this is the temperature at around 30,000 feet above the surface.
05:13But the level of that temperature will be lower towards the north, higher towards the south.
05:19Why don't we look at the height rather than the pressure level?
05:23We humans think about heights, but the weather actually behaves along pressure levels.
05:30And so it's the temperature contrast at a pressure level that will determine things like the jet stream.
05:36It's the temperature contrast at 300 hectopascals that causes the winds at 300 hectopascals, which basically is the jet stream.
05:46And so, yeah, the stronger that temperature contrast at this pressure level, the stronger the jet stream.
05:53Hope that made sense.
05:54And what we're seeing here is the temperature at 300 hectopascals.
05:59We've got warm areas, for example, over the Middle East there into India, the Tibetan Plateau, the Iranian Plateau.
06:10This is actually the warmest place on the planet for this pressure level, 300 hectopascals.
06:16But it's still about minus 20 degrees up there.
06:19So it's relatively warm.
06:22It's more like minus 60 where it's coldest.
06:25And I'll show you that in a moment.
06:26But why is it so warm in this region?
06:29This is the warmest part of the world.
06:31First of all, the Tibetan Plateau, Iranian Plateau, over across the Middle East, parts of the Sahara.
06:37You've got high pressure.
06:38So you've got all this air coming in and sinking and compressing.
06:42So that leads to some warming.
06:44Also, you've got a lot of sunshine, cloud-free skies.
06:46High pressure in these areas at this time of year leads to a lot of warming in the atmosphere.
06:51So the whole atmosphere warms.
06:54But also, India and Pakistan are right in the midst of their monsoon summer or their wet season.
07:02And all that heavy rainfall, these enormous showers and thunderstorms that are constantly happening, put on the rainfall, through the day.
07:14They're basically rising through the atmosphere.
07:17You've got all these showers and thunderstorms developing through the atmosphere.
07:22What happens is that the water vapor in the atmosphere rises, cools, and condenses near the top of the troposphere, the weather part of the atmosphere.
07:34And that condensation releases heat.
07:38It's the opposite of what happens when you get out of the shower.
07:41You've got water droplets on you.
07:42You feel cold because the water, when it's evaporating from your skin, extracts heat in order to give it energy to evaporate.
07:52And it takes that heat from your skin.
07:53You feel colder.
07:54This is the opposite.
07:55This is condensational heating.
07:57And you've got this condensation happening throughout the atmosphere all the way up to the top of the troposphere that releases heat into the atmosphere and causes this warming at the top of the 300 hectopascals above the sky in India and Pakistan because of the monsoon rains.
08:17Meanwhile, on the other side of the planet, that's where the coldest air is at 300 hectopascals, minus 60 or below across Antarctica.
08:26But what you'll notice here, you can just spin it around in the right place.
08:32What you'll notice is a big temperature contrast, not just one, but two across the southern hemisphere.
08:42And that significant temperature contrast, it is winter, of course.
08:46You've got particularly cold air there.
08:48That fuels powerful jet stream, not just one, but two.
08:52You've got these two temperature contrasts and you can see this powerful jet stream across the southern hemisphere.
08:58And that powerful jet stream leads to deep lows.
09:04Lots of lows at this time of year.
09:06So it's winter.
09:08They've got a powerful jet stream.
09:09They've got these deep lows.
09:10And the lows have a lot of weather fronts wrapped around them because the main cause of rain in the winter in the southern hemisphere and in the winter in the northern hemisphere is from fronts.
09:26These temperature contrasts.
09:27You've got this significant temperature contrast causing the powerful jet stream and causing these weather fronts and you get this frontal rain.
09:32Very different to the northern hemisphere where it's not as cold at this time of year at 300 hectopascals above the north pole.
09:43The temperature contrasts aren't as significant.
09:45The jet stream is much weaker.
09:47Look at the difference between what you saw there in the southern hemisphere and what you've got across the northern hemisphere.
09:52So as a result the low pressure systems which are created by powerful jet streams are not quite as deep.
10:01They're quite shallow.
10:03There's still some weather fronts because there are still some temperature contrasts.
10:07But the weather fronts aren't quite as active.
10:09And what's more common in the summer is warmer land surfaces.
10:12And that means that when these shallow lows end up over the land you've got warmth at the bottom on the ground surface that leads to rising air and a lot of shower reactivity.
10:26And that is indeed what we're going to see over the next few days.
10:29And this is why I want to highlight the temperature at 300 hectopascals.
10:34Because what you can see here is this dark blue turning up as we go through Tuesday night across the UK, specifically towards the southwest of the UK.
10:48And this is what we call an upper cold pool.
10:51Now, of course, if you've got a warm land surface at this time of year, well, we haven't got the heat waves at the moment, but it's still relatively warm.
10:59We've still got some moisture, some humidity in the atmosphere and some relative warmth on the surface.
11:05Then you introduce cold air way up high, 30,000 feet above you.
11:10You've got an enhanced temperature gradient.
11:12So the temperature decreases more rapidly as you go up.
11:16And that means that any air at the surface will rise more quickly because it's always going to be significantly warmer than the surrounding air.
11:24And that's why you get stronger thermals, stronger thermal uplift, and as a result, shower clouds, thunderstorms, and so on.
11:33So that's the key ingredient.
11:35We're looking here at the 300 hectopascal temperature, this cold pool turning up from the end of Tuesday.
11:42So there it is.
11:43It extends from Iceland, pushes into Ireland during Tuesday afternoon, and then it swings into southwest England.
11:52And, well, I'd say Brittany, for example, on Wednesday morning, early hours.
11:59And that's going to be the key driver.
12:01But it's not the only thing.
12:02We also look at the jet stream.
12:03Now, I showed the jet stream earlier, and it's dipping to the south of the UK.
12:08So we're on this cold side, hence the cold pool.
12:10But if I just turn on a different way of visualising the jet stream, a much more detailed way of visualising it,
12:20so that you can see every single arrow on the map.
12:24And what you can see, rewind it back to the beginning, is that this, what we call upper trough, extends towards Ireland,
12:33and then becomes so elongated it becomes its own closed circulation as we go into Wednesday across southern parts of the UK.
12:43So we've got this cold pool, this air, 30,000 feet-ish, that's particularly cold.
12:51I think it's about minus 45, minus 50 degrees by the time we go into Wednesday afternoon.
12:57And you've got this enclosed circulation, this cut-off upper vortex, that's what we call it, that circulates around.
13:05So it's basically an upper area of low pressure.
13:08And because you've got lower pressure, way up high, you've got a vacuum effect.
13:14The air at the surface wants to rush up and fill that.
13:16So you've got this vacuum, a lack of air at 30,000 feet, air at the surface rushing up to come and replace that air.
13:25So two things going on there.
13:26You've got the fact that you've got this big temperature contrast between the surface and way up high,
13:32and you've got this vacuum effect where the air is being sucked up as well.
13:36And so as a result, those two factors combine to, it's called forced ascent, force the air to ascend,
13:45cool, condense into showers and thunderstorms, particularly across southern parts of the UK,
13:51because that's where it's all centred as we go into Wednesday afternoon.
13:56Not only that, but there are things happening at the surface
13:59that will help with shower and thunderstorm development
14:02and help explain why these showers and thunderstorms will be slow moving.
14:07So just turning off those layers for a moment and zooming right in.
14:14And the first thing to point out is that if we start off Wednesday,
14:20and that's the right one.
14:23I'm putting the surface winds on.
14:24We'd normally show it like this.
14:27The winds are quite light.
14:28Tomorrow, they're not going to be a particularly important impact of the weather.
14:35But they will, if we put it on in a lot more detail,
14:41they will help to determine where the showers happen.
14:44Now, this is 8 a.m.
14:45And what you can see, I've put loads of winds on, a lot of high-density arrows.
14:51It looks like it's going to be really windy,
14:53but this is just emphasising how the winds are going to be converging together
15:01and where they're going to be occurring,
15:03because how we'd normally present it like that won't quite cut it in this situation.
15:10So by showing the winds in this way,
15:14we can see where those wind arrows are pinching together in great detail,
15:18and that's really important.
15:19We start off Wednesday with a few showers around
15:22because of the upper cold pool and the upper vortex.
15:27So that's typically where the showers will be.
15:31But those winds are going to be pinching together in places,
15:37and increasingly so as we go through into the afternoon,
15:41so that by 4 o'clock, we're going to see what we call convergence zones.
15:46Now, convergence zones often happen in the summer where you get winds coming in from one direction
15:53and then a sea breeze setting up from another direction.
15:57And so as temperatures rise through the morning into the early afternoon,
16:01along the south coast, although the main wind direction is coming from the northwest,
16:06along the south coast, a little bit of a sea breeze will develop.
16:09That's where the air warms up close to the coast.
16:13It rises and you get this inflow of winds from the sea.
16:18And of course, that's coming in at an opposite direction compared with the north-northwesternies
16:23that are prevailing through the day.
16:25And as a result, by the afternoon, you get the winds converging right along the coast.
16:30Not just there, but across East Anglia, a little bit of convergence there.
16:33Wherever these wind arrows are pinching together, the winds collide, they force the air upwards.
16:40So that's a mechanism for forcing the air to rise from the surface.
16:45You've got the two mechanisms from way up high, but now a helping hand from the surface,
16:50the winds coming together in the afternoon, colliding.
16:53And this is why you can get, in these situations, slow-moving or stationary showers occurring in lines close to the coast.
17:02Not quite on the coast, but a few miles inland, you can see winds pinching together there across parts of South Devon.
17:11And then more especially along that south coast from Dorset through to Hampshire into Sussex, Kent and so on.
17:17And then also across East Anglia.
17:19So you've got the convergence zones and where they occur, showers will basically start happening and stay wherever that convergence zone continues.
17:30But also, you've got air coming in, in different directions at different heights.
17:39And this is a significant factor of the weather for tomorrow as well.
17:42This is the surface wind direction.
17:44And if we pay attention to East Anglia, the wind's coming in at the surface from the north-north-west.
17:50But if we put the jet stream back on,
17:53you can see the wind's coming in from an opposite direction, from the south-southeast.
17:59Next, that's the surface, that's the jet stream.
18:05And we can show that hodograph is a tool that we look at as meteorologists for determining wind shear.
18:15So that's the difference in the wind speed or direction, or both, as you go from the surface up to the top of the troposphere.
18:24And that wind difference is important when identifying how things like showers and thunderstorms will move,
18:31and how they might rotate, and how they might become sustained by their own updrafts and downdrafts and so on.
18:39We covered a bit of this when we talked about supercells a few weeks ago with Dan Holley,
18:45one of our chiefs here at the Met Office.
18:48And what we're going to look at now is how these holographs can help tell us
18:56how fast or how slow these showers during Wednesday are likely to happen.
19:02Holograph, by the way, comes from the Greek for hodos, which means the path or the way.
19:08And graph to draw.
19:10So it's effectively drawing the path of different wind directions.
19:15And it's quite tricky to get your head around the first time you see one.
19:20But I'll try my best to explain it.
19:22Basically, you plot the wind direction and the wind speed on this graph,
19:29and then connect, well, the wind direction and the wind speed for each level in the atmosphere,
19:34and then join each of those up, like join the dots.
19:38So the first plot here is the surface.
19:43So that's where the surface winds are.
19:45And zero, right in the middle there, that means the winds are flat, calm.
19:50And then the further away you go from that centre, the stronger the winds are.
19:55So out here it's 50 knots.
19:57So if there's a wind of 50 knots at the surface, you'd plot it on that circle that surrounds it.
20:05Where do you plot it on the circle?
20:07Well, that depends on where the wind is blowing to.
20:10So if the wind is northerly, then you'd basically draw an arrow from the centre, which is zero knots.
20:19And then you'd go all the way down here and plot it there, because it's blowing from there to there, and it's 50 knots.
20:25It's not that strong.
20:27Tomorrow, it's pretty light.
20:29So it's basically plotting that dot from the surface, from the centre to this dot here, and then saying, yeah, that's where my surface wind is.
20:39It's a light wind, but it's coming from the north.
20:41So imagine an arrow going that way.
20:44Then you've got, say, halfway up, say 10,000 feet above the surface, you've got a wind that's pointing from the west, and it's very light.
20:55And so you point an arrow there, you start to join these dots up.
20:59And then the winds way up at 300 hectopascals, 30,000 feet or so, are plotted here.
21:06That's the black dot up here, and that's coming, like I said, it's coming from the southeast.
21:11So you draw an arrow up here, and that's where that is.
21:14And then for each of these dots, you draw a line.
21:16And what that tells us is how much the wind direction is varying as you go from the surface up to the top of the atmosphere.
21:26If the wind, if the line here is curved, then it means the winds are changing direction with height, and that's important.
21:36Because if that happens, then the storm can start rotating and become more powerful.
21:42It can be a supercell, for example.
21:44That's what we look out for.
21:46If the line doesn't curve, but it's more of a straight line, so it starts there, and then it goes there, and then it goes there, then it's directional shear.
21:56It means that it's the same direction, keeps pointing that way, but the wind speed gets higher as you go up in the atmosphere.
22:04What this shows us for Wattersham in Suffolk for Wednesday, and this is showing 4pm on Wednesday, is that the winds start off coming from the north, then they curve round and go more coming up from the south-southeast.
22:24And basically, if you pick somewhere in the middle, that's effectively a good estimate of where the storm will move, how fast it will move, and in which direction.
22:38And the middle of this is slap bang in the middle of the holograph, and so that effectively suggests that the surface winds are going to cancel out the upper winds, and the storm will stay more or less stationary.
22:52So that's what we're looking at here, we're looking at the winds at the surface, the winds higher up, picking somewhere in the middle and saying, that's where the storm will move.
23:03And it's right in the middle of the holograph, it's at the zero point, so it's not particularly going to move anywhere.
23:08And even these winds at the surface and higher up are pretty light as well.
23:12So, yeah, some wind shear, but it's all quite light wind shear, and the steering level, that mid-level wind, is right on the middle of the graph.
23:24So that indicates, looking at that, that the storms across East Anglia, where they develop, are going to be very slow moving.
23:32And we look at, say, somewhere else in the country, you get a different profile on the holograph.
23:41This is Dartmoor, and what this shows is that winds start off quite light, so that's the surface, that red bit there at the start,
23:51and they're coming in from the north-west, and then the winds stay generally north-north-west as you go up in the atmosphere,
23:59because the jet stream is coming in from the north-north-west across Dartmoor,
24:03as opposed to Suffolk, where it's coming in from the south-south-east, because the jet stream is kind of doing that circular thing over the south of the UK.
24:11So what we've got here is directional shear, where the winds get stronger as you go up in the atmosphere,
24:16and some good steering levels, so if you pick somewhere in the middle,
24:19you can actually see that the storm will move from the north-north-west to the south-south-east at a reasonable pace.
24:29But the difference with Dartmoor is that, of course, it's elevated ground.
24:37And so this is another factor we look for when we're talking about shower development in the summer,
24:43is any elevated surfaces of warmth.
24:47And, you know, you've got some heating over Dartmoor, it's higher up than its surroundings,
24:51and so the air, as it's heated during the day, will be warmer than the air surrounding it.
24:58And that will help to aid convection, help to aid that rising air over Dartmoor.
25:05And so you get shower development after shower development over Dartmoor.
25:09They might be moving off, they might be moving to the south, but they're going to keep reforming.
25:16So, by putting on, let's put the streamlines back on.
25:23And this needs to go to Wednesday afternoon for the peak development.
25:31And what you can see here is this cluster of heavy showers and thunderstorms that start over Dartmoor,
25:39get pushed to the south-south-east, and then just become aligned with the coast,
25:44all along the south coast there, and then up as you go into East Anglia,
25:49this pinching together of the winds, and you've got some heavy showers developing across parts of Essex,
25:54into Kent, near London.
25:57And it's this whole zone across the south, south-west, and south-east
26:02where these showers will develop, and they'll be slow-moving.
26:06They'll be slow-moving because the winds are coming together,
26:10convergent zones because of sea breezes and other effects.
26:14They'll also be slow-moving because, as I mentioned, across East Anglia,
26:17you've got the winds at the surface going in the opposite direction of the winds higher up.
26:23Both those winds are relatively light, and so the storms will basically form and just sit there.
26:29And they'll be slow-moving across Dartmoor because they'll just keep popping up through the day across Dartmoor
26:34because it's higher up than its surroundings.
26:36So, all of these factors, you've got the cold air way up at 300 hectopascals or 30,000 feet
26:44that sits over the south of the UK.
26:47You've got the circulation, this closed upper vortex.
26:50You've got the sea breezes. You've got the winds coming together.
26:53You've got the winds going in different directions at different levels.
26:56And you've got the elevated ground over Dartmoor, for example.
26:59All those reasons will lead to some very heavy downpours, perhaps some thunderstorms,
27:04that will stay in the same places through the afternoon and lead to perhaps some impacts
27:12because where these occur, they're not going to shift very quickly.
27:16But, of course, that means that other places, even in the areas I've just mentioned,
27:21won't see any at all.
27:22And this is highlighted by this graphic.
27:27We look at Wednesday through to 6 p.m.
27:34And you can see some very speckled forecast rain across East Anglia
27:38into the east and southeast of England, all along the southwest.
27:43Some areas, 30, 40 millimetres of rain in a few hours.
27:48Other areas, very little.
27:50Because where these showers occur and become slow-moving, of course,
27:54in other places, they will not occur at all.
27:59Some places, avoiding them entirely and staying dry.
28:02There will be other showers occurring across the UK.
28:04The Pennines, for example, are focused for showers.
28:07Southeast Scotland, once again, a focal point for some heavy showers.
28:15More scattered showers across Northern Ireland, Western Scotland,
28:18not quite as heavy or as slow-moving.
28:21But, yeah, you can see the impact of all those factors coming together across the southeast,
28:25not just across the south of the UK, but across northern France as well, interestingly.
28:30Now, that's Wednesday.
28:34As we go into Thursday, things start to change.
28:39We've still got some showers around, this time across central,
28:43the central spine of England into the east of England, for example,
28:46the heaviest downpours across East Anglia,
28:49as that upper vortex moves away to the east.
28:53But, meanwhile, things are changing out to the west.
28:58Let's take a look at what that looks like.
29:00On the 300 hectopascal temperature,
29:04as I suspected it would do,
29:08it looks like warmer air is coming in at that level to western parts of the UK.
29:13So here's that cold pool.
29:15It's moving into central Europe.
29:17Warmer air is starting to appear towards the southwest.
29:21Actually, that cold pool moves away, but it persists.
29:25It persists for quite a few days across central Europe.
29:32Here it is, moving into the Alps.
29:35Oh, I don't want that on there.
29:37And into Sunday, it's over Italy.
29:39So, yeah, that could cause some lively thunderstorms.
29:42It's that upper cold pool pushing south over some very hot ground.
29:47And if I put the rainfall on,
29:49you can probably see some wet weather there across Croatia into northern Italy.
29:54But aside from that, across the UK,
29:55we've got higher temperatures moving in from the southwest
29:58and a ridge of high pressure building in at this point.
30:03And that is going to lead to a significant change once again
30:06across the UK as we go into the weekend.
30:10So, by Friday, many places drier.
30:17Best of the sunshine on Friday towards the east and southeast,
30:2027 degrees possible.
30:22Still some cloud coming to the west and northwest.
30:25And by Saturday, this is Saturday early hours,
30:29we've got showers across Scotland and Northern Ireland.
30:32Fairly brisk moving showers, not particularly heavy,
30:36in between some bright spells.
30:37And you can see across much of England and Wales,
30:39plenty of sunshine on Saturday,
30:41feeling warm, temperatures in the low to mid-twenties.
30:44Some question marks about Sunday.
30:46This area of low pressure moves in.
30:49But how far north and south it will be,
30:52that is a source of uncertainty.
30:55The European model has it much further north
30:57and so much of the UK avoids it.
30:59But the Met Office model, as you can see,
31:02pushes the rain into many parts of the UK by Sunday.
31:06We'll take a look at that in a bit more detail
31:08in tomorrow's 10-day trend with Greg Dewhurst.
31:11Then, into next week,
31:13well, it's a fairly what we call climatological setup.
31:16We've got still a lot of blues on the graphic here.
31:24This is the most likely weather pattern for each day
31:27and the blues represent low pressure close to the UK.
31:30But as you can see, by the time we get into next week,
31:33it's more of these lighter blues that are appearing
31:37and that indicates higher pressure extending
31:44from the southwest in some shape or form
31:47and the more unsettled weather towards the north
31:49and east of the UK.
31:53This shows the kind of rainfall anomaly we'd expect
31:57in this kind of situation.
32:00As you can see, fairly average over the UK.
32:02Some wet weather across the near continent.
32:07And the average pressure through next week
32:10is quite interesting.
32:12We've got quite low pressure
32:13over the near continent,
32:17over Germany and Denmark,
32:19with a build of higher pressure.
32:21This is the average pressure anomaly through next week.
32:24Well, actually, through the rest of this week.
32:26And then into next week,
32:31an even stronger build of pressure towards the southwest,
32:33lower pressure to the east of the UK.
32:35And that trend tends to continue
32:38into the second week of August.
32:40This is the 4th of August to the 11th of August.
32:43And we've got a higher pressure
32:44becoming more prevalent over the UK.
32:46So what I suspect will happen
32:47is that through next week,
32:51the UK will be subject to the jet stream
32:53lying across the north of the UK.
32:55It will stay fairly changeable
32:56for Scotland and Northern Ireland,
32:58mostly dry for England and Wales,
33:02with higher pressure,
33:03a ridge of higher pressure
33:04coming and going at times.
33:06No sign of a heat wave next week.
33:08Mostly it's cool, changeable westerly winds.
33:12But then as we go into August,
33:14the signs are that pressure will begin
33:16to build a bit more towards the west
33:18and the southwest of the UK,
33:20perhaps bringing more widespread,
33:23settled weather and higher temperatures.
33:25as a result.
33:26But of course, that's a long way off.
33:27And we'll be covering it
33:29much more closer to the time.
33:31And I'm sure we'll be covering it
33:32in the deep dive again.
33:34So make sure you'll be tuning in next week
33:36for the Met Office deep dive.
33:38But otherwise, that's all from me.
33:39Bye-bye.
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