Milton expected to sprint towards Florida as major hurricane

AccuWeather

AccuWeather's Bernie Rayno and Alex DaSilva monitor the path of Hurricane Milton as the storm is expected to barrel across the Gulf of Mexico towards Florida as a Category 3 storm this Wednesday.

Transcript

00:00This time last week we talked about this that couple of there were a couple of problems there

00:05were a couple of formation problems that we had multiple pieces of energy but if we were going

00:11to get a storm it would be coming out of the Yucatan Peninsula and that's exactly what has

00:17happened in the last couple of days. Yeah and we were worried that if it took kind of a more

00:22southern track close to the Yucatan Peninsula it could avoid a lot of that wind shear that

00:26hostile wind shear that's to the north along the northern gulf coast and track right over that area

00:31of high ocean heat content and look what we've seen the storm has exploded here over the last 24

00:37hours it's a borderline category four it just needs five more miles per hour to get to that

00:41category four status and I think it could do it as early as later this morning or early afternoon.

00:46Let's talk about some of the ingredients let's begin with not only warm water in the Gulf of

00:53Mexico but what we call a high content a high values of ocean heat content explain this graphic

01:01to our viewers Alex. Yeah it's not only about the sea surface temperatures it's how deep into the

01:06ocean those warm waters extend and everywhere where you're seeing that dark orange and red color

01:11that's where the 80 degree temperature line extends three to four hundred feet down below

01:17the surface of the ocean and we had Helene move through these areas but the water was so deep and

01:23so warm that even though Helene mixed up some of the waters it just mixed warm water right back up

01:28and so we actually really didn't see that much of a reduction in the sea surface or even ocean

01:33heat content with Helene so it's it's prime for intensification all the way to the coast of

01:38Florida. And we talked about the wind shear Alex that there was going to be a little ribbon of

01:42lower wind shear and there it is across the southern Gulf of Mexico and right now Alex

01:49it's in the perfect unfortunately pertaining the wind shear perfect location for intensification.

01:56It certainly is I like to call it the Goldilocks zone low wind shear plenty of ocean heat content

02:01that's why we're seeing this storm rapidly intensify borderline category four hurricane

02:05should be one very shortly could even try to make a run even higher towards a category five but

02:11yeah I mean it's in that zone that light purple is the zone of low wind shear you can see all the

02:15hostile wind shear to the north and so the track is going to be very very key if it moves more to

02:21the north it will run into a little more of that wind shear but if it stays a little more south

02:24you can see kind of that channel of lower wind shear. All right let's talk about where we're

02:29going here now it's two dips in the jet stream what we call two troughs across the United States

02:34Tuesday and Wednesday that will determine where this goes because there are wide range still of

02:41possibilities let's talk about first if the northern trough the one across the east coast

02:47is more dominant yeah if that northern trough is a little more dominant it can push the storm a

02:51little bit further to the east now under this situation the storm would likely move in more

02:55towards the Naples area and the storm would actually likely be a little bit stronger because

02:59it could like it could avoid some of that wind shear that's across the north second scenario

03:04is the worst case scenario for Tampa if the if the trough to the west is a little bit stronger

03:10can actually pick up the storm and move it to the north at the last minute and this is the

03:14scenario I'm very very concerned about it might lose a little bit of wind intensity coming in

03:19but this is the scenario that would be really really bad for the Tampa Bay area and of course

03:24in you could have different strengths of those different jet streams and you can have a track

03:29right toward Tampa or just off to the south right now Alex the decision was made let's have the

03:35center of circulation just south of Tampa making landfall Wednesday evening it's kind of a middle

03:40ground between the two solutions but I am a little bit worried that that second trough could be a

03:44little more dominant and we could see a track move a little bit more to the north now

03:49I don't want you to pay too much attention and what the landfall strength is we're right now

03:53forecasting major hurricane category three but look we have a category four forecasted before

03:59landfall the storm is going to be able to generate a lot of power a lot of wave action a lot of surge

04:05prior to landfall so even if it loses a little bit of that wind intensity you're still going to have a

04:09category four strength type surge being shoved into a lot of these bays and it's a persistent

04:15storm surge because of the track that begins Tuesday night continues Wednesday and then even

04:21Wednesday night into Thursday that northwesterly flow produces a wind shear and oh by the way

04:27on the northern side of this storm Alex along the east coast of Florida there's going to be a

04:31damaging storm surge as well yeah you can see as the storm kind of rotates through the wind shifts

04:36around and so even if areas in in the Tampa Bay don't get the initial push of push of storm surge

04:42we're still going to get that back bay flooding as the winds switch around to the northwest so

04:46all these coastline areas very important that you listen to your local management officials

04:51and evacuate if you're told to do so a lot of the dunes a lot of the protective barriers

04:56in these areas have been eroded away from Helene and so

04:59a lot of areas are much more prone to storm surge this second time around.

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