- 6/13/2025
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00:00A full slate Friday around Major League Baseball, of course, setting the stage for a glorious weekend in the bigs.
00:07And now from the brilliant baseball mind of one Donnie Wright's side, we break it all down.
00:13Of course, pro baseball today comes your way on Father's Day Sunday.
00:17DRS, you don't have the day off on Sunday?
00:20No days off.
00:20You're going to be live on PBT with Tom Becchio, 10 a.m. Eastern?
00:24Yeah, that's what I'm saying.
00:25Like, I was asking Kevin that yesterday.
00:26Can I take off, like, Father's Day?
00:28Like, some people take off for, like, their mom's birthday.
00:31Like, it's not even, like, you know, Mother's Day at that point.
00:32But for me, I always feel like I've got to set the stage for the younger people, which most are than me at the network.
00:38Follow my lead, man.
00:39Never take days off.
00:41Work as hard as you can.
00:42Be around this industry.
00:44And there you go.
00:44Like, that's my Father's Day advice to the young kids out there like yourself.
00:49Yeah.
00:50I know I've asked my question many a time.
00:52Where would I be without Donnie Wright's side?
00:54I'm sure the younger hosts on this network have all said the same.
00:57You won't see me taking any days off.
01:00Certainly not next week.
01:02I would never do that.
01:03I would never be in Italy.
01:05And Donnie's got to hold down the fort here on the early line.
01:09Let's talk about rivalries renewed this weekend, DRS.
01:12Last week, it was in the Bronx.
01:13Yeah.
01:14This week, it's in Beantown.
01:16It's the Red Sox and the Yankees.
01:18And we've talked often, is this even still the greatest rivalry in sports?
01:23The greatest rivalry in baseball?
01:24They didn't even play it on rivalry weekend around MLB.
01:28Well, courtesy of the Hunter Dobbins saga, who starts tomorrow for the Sox against the Yankees inside Fenway.
01:37Maybe we've got some juice here between Boston and New York.
01:41It starts on this Friday night.
01:43Garrett Crochet on the bump for the Red Sox.
01:45And they're a home money line favorite.
01:47Won't often see the Yanks as an underdog DRS.
01:50How does this rivalry renew once again?
01:53Yeah.
01:54Hopefully, we get runs.
01:54But I don't know if we will.
01:55But also, will the dad, will they cut away and show the dad in the stands like he's got the half Boston jersey, half Yankees jersey?
02:01Yeah, exactly.
02:01Because he was drafted by the Yankees, theoretically.
02:04And my son plays for the Red Sox.
02:05It's really hard to have differentiating.
02:07But the one thing we are going to look at is XFIT minus numbers here.
02:10And these two pitchers heading into this game, Ben, very good.
02:12Garrett Crochet, number two on the card.
02:14XFIT minus of a 54.
02:15How about an XFIT number of a 2.23?
02:17Look at Yarbrough, not really one of those household names that you'd figure, like, he's a really good pitcher.
02:22But this year, particularly over the past 30 days, he has been a good pitcher.
02:25How about a 72 XFIT minus?
02:27The ERA is elevated at 4.71.
02:29But the XFIT number is 2.97.
02:31Getting a little bit unlucky.
02:3368-degree temperatures, which aren't that bad.
02:35Foul pole from right to left foul pole of a win.
02:37So not really going to help all that much.
02:39The question, though, is, you know, are the Yankees going to bounce back?
02:41Like, yeah, they got to win the yesterday only one run.
02:43We're used to them smashing baseballs.
02:45It's a great hitter's ballpark that we get.
02:47And two lineups that present themselves very well against these pitchers.
02:50In this one, I'm leaning towards the pitchers.
02:53I really don't want to go under 8.5.
02:54But if I have two pitchers in the top six of my card today with XFIT minus and XFIT numbers,
02:59I'm going to trust those levels that we stay under 8.5.
03:02It's one of those that set it, bet it, forget it.
03:05Because I don't know if you want to watch those murderous row guys coming up time and time again in Boston tonight.
03:09But it just feels like an under game for me based on the pitching statistics.
03:14Aaron Judge had the day off yesterday in KC.
03:17The Yankees did sweep the Royals, winning 1-0.
03:20Big bounce back for New York DRS that had Monday off after losing the weekend against Boston.
03:27So now we have another series inside Fenway Park.
03:30By the way, Aaron Judge, three consecutive games with a home run.
03:33That streak still stands, plus $2.40 the price for Judge to go Yabo tonight at Fenway.
03:41It's half the price and then none some of any other player in the lineup today for our side.
03:47Another rivalry, a California rivalry, tonight in Los Angeles at the Ravine.
03:53It's the Dodgers and the Giants.
03:54San Francisco saw their sixth game win streak, snapped yesterday.
03:58Six-game win streak, snapped yesterday by the Colorado Rockies.
04:04The Giants now head to L.A. to take on the Dodgers.
04:08Not often times you're going to see Logan Webb when he's out there on the bunk for the Giants as a hefty dog.
04:13But Yoshi Yamamoto gets the start for the Dodgers.
04:17Minus 184, that updated money line figure on Los Angeles.
04:21Total seven and a half.
04:23Another rivalry this weekend of the bigs.
04:25What do you like tonight in downtown L.A.?
04:27Probably under seven and a half.
04:29But if you are looking at Logan Webb getting a plus 146 price, I have him as the best pitcher on the card today.
04:34You take a look at his last 30 days, Ben.
04:35X-fit minus.
04:36If you're not used to hearing that number, it's league adjusted here.
04:39100 is that baseline mark.
04:41Anything above that for a pitcher, Ben?
04:42Not doing very well.
04:43Anything below that?
04:44Doing very well.
04:45How about a 52 here for Logan Webb?
04:47So doing extremely well with an ERA over the past month of a 2.53 and an X-fifth number of 2.01.
04:53Now, Yamamoto's a very good pitcher.
04:55So if you say, well, I don't know if I want to go like eighth inning, ninth inning, extra innings if it gets there and I lose my advantage.
05:00Well, just take the first five innings maybe money line here on Logan Webb.
05:03He's great.
05:04He should be able to hold the bats down, at least giving you a chance with a good pitcher at an underdog price.
05:09A critical stretch for the Dodgers.
05:12They had a three-game set against the Padres and now a divisional rivalry this weekend against the Giants as well.
05:19More around the big next.
05:20So we mentioned this critical stretch in the National League West.
05:24A lot of divisional rivalries playing out this weekend and some divisional duels.
05:29The Dodgers, who had a three-game set against the Padres in San Diego this week, they took two of three.
05:35They had a weekend set against their old rivals in the Giants.
05:38And then on Monday, stored a four-game set in the midweek against San Diego once again.
05:44The Dodgers, a game in front of the Giants for the top spot in the National League West.
05:49Two now in front of the San Diego Padres.
05:52A minus 800 favorite to win that division for a 12th time in the last 13 years.
05:58Not a divisional rivalry.
06:00Heck, not even in the same league this weekend, DRS between the Phils and the Blue Jays.
06:06But they did play each other last week.
06:09Toronto took two of three.
06:10In fact, the Jays have been scorching hot as of late.
06:13They just swept St. Louis in St. Louis.
06:16They've won seven of their last eight.
06:1812 of their last 14.
06:20Toronto now 38-30.
06:23They head to the bank this weekend.
06:25Philadelphia, a slight home favorite in this Friday night opener with Ranger Suarez on the bump.
06:30Kevin Gossman on the other side for the Blue Jays.
06:33Minus 118 in that updated money line price in favor of Philadelphia.
06:38Total is eight.
06:39How does this weekend set between the Phils and the Jays begin?
06:43Yeah, just talked about San Francisco with a really good pitcher on the mound getting plus money.
06:46I'm thinking the same thing here with Toronto.
06:48Now, I did like the way the Phillies, you know, took their chances there against Chicago at the plate.
06:52I believe all three of those games, they had double-digit hits, which is fantastic.
06:55They're starting to wake up.
06:56But, as you said, Toronto's bats have been fantastic.
06:59We'll get to the pitchers in a second.
07:00But if we're entering into this game over the past month, outside of George Springer,
07:04every single player on that team has really high weighted on base percentages against left-handed pitching,
07:08which is a great sign.
07:09Typically, the lefties usually get the best of, as you say, the right-handed batters of any said team.
07:14Maybe only one lefty in the lineup today, but I do like the way that projects.
07:17And also, a lot of light strikeout numbers for the Toronto Blue Jays against lefties over the past month.
07:2181 degrees in Philadelphia, muggy conditions, wind blowing out to left field at 8 miles per hour.
07:26Flip it over to the Phillies, where I told you, Turner, Schwarber, Boehm, Castellanos,
07:30all with really good numbers against righties over the past month, but more so over the past week here,
07:34those guys have woken up.
07:36Gaussman's a good pitcher.
07:37You know, you take a look at Suarez is a good pitcher.
07:39It's a smaller ballpark.
07:40I do lean towards the under, but sometimes it's hard to do.
07:43But I got to tell you, plus money price on the Toronto Blue Jays here, going toe-to-toe with the Phillies.
07:48Look, I'm a big Phillies fan.
07:49I am.
07:50But I think that's a pretty good advantage to have, saying, we'll see if the Phillies continue to hit.
07:54Suarez has been a good pitcher.
07:55I get that.
07:55The Phillies are at home.
07:56That is an advantage.
07:57But Toronto just handled the Philadelphia Phillies in their past series in Toronto,
08:00and I like the way their bats check out here.
08:03So I do think there's a good chance they can knock off the Phillies,
08:05and if you're giving me plus money, I'll go that route.
08:08The Blue Jays, 38-30.
08:11Toronto playing really good baseball, as we shared.
08:13Philadelphia, not so much.
08:16They have still lost 10 of their last 13 games,
08:19but the Phillies did DRS win their midweek set against the Chicago Cubs.
08:23Speaking of those Cubbies, their extended weekend series against divisional foe,
08:28the Pittsburgh Pirates, started yesterday.
08:31They won at Wrigley Field.
08:33Justin Turner was in a very celebratory mood, if you have seen that video on social media.
08:39And Pete Crow Armstrong, man, just continues to be an absolute dog at the dish.
08:44Even pitches DRS that are nowhere close to the strike zone,
08:47he can take yard and over the wall.
08:50He hit a home run yesterday on a pitch that was 3.9 inches, feet, 3.9 feet above the strike zone,
08:59and he absolutely roasted it out of Wrigley Field.
09:03Some day baseball on this Friday in Chi-Town at the Friendly Confines,
09:08and it's basically a pick-em.
09:10Why?
09:11Paul Skeens gets the start for the Buccos.
09:14Skeens, day 38 in the history of MLB.
09:18Total seven, Skeens on the bump.
09:20Which way are the winds blowing in the Windy City?
09:23Yeah, blowing in a little bit today, which doesn't help.
09:25But again, that doesn't say that there's an eight-mile wind blowing in.
09:28Nobody can hit home runs or get any base hits here.
09:30That's not the case.
09:30The question's going to be, can you get those hits and base hits?
09:32Off of Paul Skeens has been fabulous.
09:34On the card today, fourth overall, a 67 XFIT minus, an ERA of .74.
09:39Now, here's the give and the take here.
09:41Skeens is tremendous, but so is that Cubs lineup against right-handed pitching over the past month.
09:45Outside of Reese McGuire, who's going to bat probably ninth today,
09:49every single batter is a plus with weighted on base percentage against righties.
09:52Now, granted, not your average right-handed pitcher.
09:54It is Paul Skeens.
09:56Now, flip it over.
09:56How many times have you heard me say,
09:58it's O'Neal Cruz and nobody in that lineup?
10:01Things are starting to change over because those bats are starting to wake up
10:05over the past month, particularly against right-handed pitching.
10:07O'Neal Cruz, Andrew McCutcheon, Brian Reynolds, Nick Gonzalez, Adam Frazier,
10:11Henry Davis, and Isaiah Kiner-Falefa,
10:14all above average against right-handed pitchers over the past month.
10:17That's seven out of nine batters we're looking at plus.
10:19So, for me, I look and say, all right,
10:21Pittsburgh's not a great team, but they're on the road.
10:23Skeens, I do believe, is the better pitcher.
10:25And a lineup that could be comparable to the Cubs today?
10:28Come on now.
10:28Give me Pittsburgh and Skeens out there.
10:30Let's go.
10:30Oh, wow.
10:32Donnie going with the buckos.
10:34I did not know if we would get to that.
10:36Paul Skeens, as of late, DRS, he wasn't bad to start the year,
10:40but by Paul Skeens standards, maybe we'd call it just slightly above average.
10:44Yeah, he's back to absolute dominance on the bump in his last six starts.
10:48Four total earned runs given up in his last six.
10:5145 total strikeouts.
10:54But, Donnie, the Pirates were still just three and three in those six starts
10:57for Paul Skeens.
10:58Even last week on Sunday against the Philadelphia Phillies, seven and two-thirds,
11:04two base knocks, did not allow a single earned run.
11:07A run was scored by Philadelphia when he was in the game and struck out seven.
11:12He had a no decision, but the Pirates did win 2-1.
11:16How about the start before that?
11:18He only allowed one earned against the Astros and three base knocks over eight innings
11:23and recorded the loss in a 3-0 game.
11:27Skeens has a 4-6 record this year, but with a 1-8-8 ERA
11:31and is a minus 250 favorite to win that National League Cy Young Award.
11:36A lot of divisional races, as we have seen this weekend.
11:39The Cubbies, a five-and-a-half game lead at 42-27
11:42atop the National League Central in front of Milwaukee.
11:46More division action within the NL West.
11:48The Diamondbacks will play host this weekend to the San Diego Padres
11:53for game number one, Arizona, an ever-so-slight home favorite, minus 134.
11:58Now, that updated number for this desert duel.
12:01Total, nine-and-a-half.
12:03Can we expect some offense tonight in Phoenix?
12:06I do.
12:06I do think we get offense.
12:07Take a look at Stephen Kolek here.
12:09Now, even though his ERA is a 4.55, he measures out to a 119,
12:12which is 19% over that 100 number that you're looking at here,
12:16saying, you know what, I want to stay below that.
12:18He doesn't.
12:184.76 X-fifth number.
12:20Look at this lineup.
12:21Outside of Geraldo Perdomo, who's due to bat third today,
12:24365, 525, 384, 401, 397, 343, 462, and 345.
12:31Those are the weighted-on-base percentages over the past 30 days
12:33against right-handed pitching for the Arizona Diamondbacks.
12:35They should absolutely hammer today.
12:37And on the other side, you're not getting a great pitcher on that side.
12:40Ryan Nelson's on the mound.
12:41Okay, he's had some decent statistics over his last 30 days here
12:44based on weighted-on-base percentages and also ISO power numbers,
12:47but his strikeout numbers are really low.
12:49We're getting runs today.
12:50I would not be surprised if we get double digits out in the desert today.
12:54Give me over the 9.5.
12:56A full slate Friday, DRS.
12:58That means 15 games, all 30 clubs in action around Major League Baseball.
13:04I wonder when Aaron Savalli makes his debut for the Chicago White Sox.
13:08The Braves at home.
13:10Bryce Elder gets the start.
13:11They're greater than a $3 favorite against the Colorado Rockies.
13:15The Detroit Tigers hoping to continue to stack up wins, 45 and 25.
13:20They host the Cincinnati Reds, the team with the longest active win streak
13:23in Major League Baseball.
13:25Let me just double-check that.
13:26Six in a row for the New York Mets.
13:28They start their weekend series today against the Tampa Bay Rays.
13:32Clay Holmes on the bump for New York against Tampa.
13:36Any other plays that you would like to highlight elsewhere around the card on this Friday?
13:41Yeah, by the way, Freddie Peralta, usually a good pitcher, guys.
13:44Coming in 27th on my card today with a 116 number for his XFIP minus and a 4.62 XFIP number.
13:50He's going to take on Eric Fetty today.
13:52And look at Fetty.
13:53He's only had a 3 ERA over the past month, but basically, Fetty, 29 out of 29 pitchers
13:58with his XFIP minus.
13:59So, Peralta and Fetty combined today in one pitching matchup.
14:03I don't care who is at the plate at this point.
14:05That game should go over the total in Milwaukee tonight.
14:09It's only 7.5, right?
14:11You are not paying a premium.
14:13We are not expecting a ton of offense, but 7.5 can certainly be accomplished.
14:18The Royals host the A's.
14:19Luis Severino on the bump for the Athletics.
14:22Kansas City trying to bounce back from a series sweep against the New York Yankees
14:27during the midweek.
14:28Plenty of great baseball again.
14:30Celebrate Father's Day with Johnny Wrightside on Sunday, 10 a.m.
14:34Eastern on Pro Baseball Today.
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