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00:00A full Friday slate in Major League Baseball.
00:03That's all 15 games and all 30 clubs around the MLB Diamond in action on this Friday.
00:09And this weekend, DRS, a more key matchup out in Los Angeles.
00:13It's the Dodgers and the Yankees, a World Series rematch from this past November.
00:19Of course, the Dodgers winning a World Series over New York, the first matchup between these
00:24two since what we saw to end out the 2024 MLB season.
00:28And when you have marquee matchups, as we saw during rivalry weekend, oftentimes the
00:34FanDuel Sportsbook will put a price on who wins a three-game set.
00:39That is the case for us here.
00:40The Dodgers with home field advantage at Chavez Ravine, a series favorite at minus 140.
00:46That makes what we're going to see here today, DRS, a little bit more interesting.
00:51The LA kid back in his hometown, Max Freed, who has been diabolical in his debut year for
00:57the pinstripes on the bump, has his New York Yankees as a road favorite tonight in Los Angeles
01:04for game number one.
01:05The updated money line price is minus 122 in favor of New York.
01:10The Catman, Tony Gonsolin on the other side for LA.
01:13A total stands at nine.
01:15We'll get to the overall series picture, DRS, what it means.
01:18Significance-wise, early on this season for 2025, following a World Series rematch in just
01:24a moment, but let's start with the debut game tonight on a Friday in LA.
01:28How do you see it playing out?
01:30I got to tell you, the first thing you look at is that nine number and say, yeah, they
01:34have really good lineups on both sides here.
01:36You got weather conditions out there in LA, 75 degrees at first pitch, light wind blowing
01:40out to center field.
01:41It is a pitcher's ballpark overall.
01:43But Max Freed, like there's 28 pitchers on the card today with a minimum of 10 innings
01:47pitched in 2025.
01:49Max Freed's the best going away.
01:50An XFIP minus number of 78.
01:52How about an ERA on the season of 1.29?
01:55How about an XFIP number of 3.20, which is the best on the card?
01:59One of the best on the card.
02:00Actually, it is the best on the card today, excuse me, as an XFIP number.
02:03How about 20th?
02:04That's Tony Gonsolin, the starting pitcher today for the Los Angeles Dodgers.
02:07He comes in at a 105 XFIP minus, which isn't bad, a 4.68 ERA number and a 4.16 XFIP number.
02:14Now, granted, if you look at power of the lineups, it's probably better on the Dodgers.
02:19With Tani Betts, Hernandez, Freeman, Will Smith, Pias.
02:21I mean, those guys have been kicking it all season long, but no slats there on the opposite
02:26side is the New York Yankees.
02:27And pitching wins in Major League Baseball, would you like it better to be in, you know,
02:31at home where maybe you're more comfortable?
02:33Sure.
02:33But I'm taking the better picture tonight and saying, I don't know if we get 10 total
02:37runs because can Gonsolin get blown away?
02:39Sure.
02:40Like yesterday, you saw Zach Wheeler get blown away for the Philadelphia Phillies, something
02:43we were shocked by.
02:44But look, the Yankee tax is here tonight at minus 130.
02:48I think they win this game.
02:49And I don't know if we get 10 runs in this one.
02:51Put it that way.
02:52Max Fried has been incredible this season in his first year with the Yankees.
02:57And because of it, New York is that road favorite.
02:59The LA Dodgers DRS, of course, with the expectation this season, are not often booked as an underdog.
03:05In fact, LA has only been a dog in nine total games this season.
03:10That's the fewest around MLB.
03:12They are four and five outright in those nine games.
03:15But this will be the first time that Los Angeles has been booked as an underdog at home inside
03:21Chavez Ravine.
03:22We have not seen the Dodgers as a home dog just yet.
03:25That is set to change tonight.
03:27A little bit after 10 p.m.
03:28Eastern time, but of course, 7 p.m.
03:31local on a Friday night in LA.
03:33A marquee matchup this weekend and a marquee series DRS that we can expect maybe to not just
03:39be a World Series rematch, but a World Series preview.
03:43Is that where you stand on both of these teams at this time?
03:47That what we are going to see tonight, we are more than likely to see come late October,
03:52early November.
03:53Yeah, no, it makes some sense because why?
03:56The Yankees have been sensational in the American League in a down American League.
03:59They are the front runners to me.
04:01And you see them at 35 and 20 on the season.
04:03Now, the Dodgers, which is the crazy part about it is the Dodgers are 34 and 22.
04:07And we still look at them like, that's an underwhelming season right there.
04:10We expected them to be, I don't know, 44 and 11 at this point or something ridiculous
04:15like that.
04:15It's Major League Baseball.
04:16It's a long way.
04:17But understand this.
04:18You don't win a World Series at the end of September.
04:20You win that by winning in the playoffs.
04:22And these two teams are deep pocketed owners that if they feel around the all-star break
04:26and or trade deadline that they're ready to make a run and win the World Series, they
04:31will add on to already talented teams.
04:33So as much as I love the Philadelphia Phillies and maybe the Mets can make a run and we love
04:37the stories of the Detroit Tigers and what they can be in the playoffs.
04:40But understand this.
04:42These two teams know how to win world championships in their history and they have deep pockets
04:46to sort of stride for that.
04:47So yes, I do think we are looking at a legitimate World Series preview this weekend because why?
04:52The Dodgers are really good.
04:53At the end of the season, they'll be good.
04:55The Yankees, the same way for me.
04:57Yeah.
04:57And Donnie, when you look at the odds, that's the story we are being told right now.
05:01Both teams are the short pennant favorites in their respective leagues.
05:04The Yankees in the AL.
05:06Of course, the Dodgers have been a short favorite in every single category all season long, even
05:10before the 2025 MLB campaign got started.
05:14The Dodgers are the favorites to win a World Series at plus 240.
05:17The Yankees have that second best price.
05:19It is still $3 back of LA.
05:21But that gap has actually tightened a little bit from the preseason numbers and the differentiating
05:26price the Dodgers had just so short in comparison to every other club around Major League Baseball.
05:34To Donnie's point as well, the Yankees' path to get back to a World Series might actually
05:39be a little bit easier.
05:41There's only two teams right now in the American League that have more than 30 wins.
05:46The Yankees at 35 and 20 and the Tigers with the best record in the AL in all of the
05:51bigs, 37 and 20.
05:53There are seven teams right now, including LA, with more than three wins around the National
05:58League.
05:58The Dodgers, 34 and 22.
06:01The Phil's DRS, courtesy of a series victory against Atlanta this week, best record in
06:06the National League at 36 and 20.
06:08Although the Dodgers have a shorter price to win both the National League pennant and that
06:12World Series crown, you might actually argue at this moment the pinstripes have a better
06:16path to get back to a World Series matchup.
06:19Yeah, exactly.
06:20And the old thought process is you can't win a World Series unless you're actually in the
06:24World Series and playing for it.
06:26And the Yankees might have an easier path, as you pointed out, than the Dodgers have.
06:29But again, the teams that we're looking at right now, and this includes the National
06:33League teams like the Phillies and the Mets, they're not going to be the same teams that
06:37you're going to see in late October.
06:38Injury is going to happen, but also teams are going to double down at the trade deadline
06:41and add superstar players to sort of impact it.
06:43And also, very rarely, unless it's a small market team, when the Dodgers are going for it,
06:48and they just won it last year and they have a ridiculously high payroll.
06:50If they feel at the trade deadline, they're about to win another World Series, they don't
06:54stay put and be like, ha ha, we're good to go here.
06:56They add another all-star caliber player.
06:59That's the scary part about these teams, because if you were asking, hey, is Detroit going to
07:02win it?
07:03They have the best record in baseball.
07:04I'd say, this is probably the team we're going to get in late September.
07:07That's not the case with the big money market, big power teams.
07:11And the Dodgers are still the favorites right now, despite being 34 and 22 at minus 160.
07:17Have the best regular season record of the bigs.
07:19More around MLB next.
07:22A full Friday slate around Major League Baseball, setting up a huge weekend in the sport on the
07:29diamond.
07:29A divisional duel this week in the American League Central, where, Donnie, we were just breaking
07:33down the Yankees and the Dodgers and the marquee matchup this weekend out in the City of Angels.
07:38But the best record right now in all of the major leagues, that still belongs to the Detroit Tigers.
07:4437 and 20 for the Tigers, as they head to Kansas City this weekend to take on their divisional foes
07:50in the Royals.
07:52The lines for game number one, Casey Mize and Seth Lugo on the bump for those two sides.
07:58Mize for Detroit, Lugo on the other side for Kansas City.
08:01And the Tigers, an ever so slight now minus 120 money line favorite inside Kauffman Stadium.
08:06Total stands at eight and a half.
08:09DRS, tell us what is the play today in Casey?
08:12Yeah, take a look at Casey Mize on the mound today for the Detroit Tigers.
08:15Good season so far.
08:1691 XFIP minus having an ERA of 2.45 and an XFIP number of 3.72.
08:21Very manageable on all of those.
08:23Seth Lugo doing the mound today for Kansas City.
08:26He's coming in here with a 99 XFIP minus a decent ERA of 3.02 and also a 4.02 XFIP number.
08:35You know me.
08:35I take a look at some of these matchups and say, all right, Seth Lugo's on the mound.
08:38He has gotten hit around a little bit by left-handed batters this year.
08:42131 lefties that he's faced on the season.
08:44A 205 ISO against and a 334 weighted on base percentage.
08:48You take a look at the last 30 days.
08:49It's similar.
08:50167 ISO, which is slightly less, but also a slightly higher weighted on base percentage of 350.
08:55It's not a big K guy, but you look at that lineup to start.
08:58Kerry Carpenter, left-handed batter against right-handed pitching over the past month.
09:02How about a 365 weighted on base percentage?
09:04Cole Keith, 379.
09:05Riley Green, lefty, also 464.
09:08Wensiel Perez, who was a switch hit of a bat from the left-hand side.
09:11Not a lot of at-bats against righties, but still a 403 weighted on base percentage.
09:15I love those guys with legitimate chances to get RBI.
09:18And also today, 73-degree temperatures, which is nice, and a light wind blowing out to right
09:24field, which could aid some of those batters from the left-hand side.
09:27Casey Mize on the opposite side.
09:28He's got some pretty good numbers, though.
09:30On the season, 189 batters he's faced.
09:32How about a 147 ISO and a weighted on base percentage of 272 against?
09:36Bobby Wood Jr., Vinny Pasquatino, Mikel Garcia, and Kyle Isbell with good numbers.
09:40But the rest of that lineup, a lot to be desired.
09:43Lean here for me on the Detroit Tigers at that slight price of minus 116.
09:47And let's just see if we can get some runs.
09:48The eight is a low number.
09:50Not in love with both lineups, but some good RBI props, possibly, for the left-handed hitters
09:54on the Detroit Tigers today for me.
09:57A seven-game differential between Casey and Detroit.
10:00The Royals are 30-27.
10:02When you look at the rest of the division, a six-game lead for the Tigers in front of both
10:07the Guardians and the Twins.
10:09Both Cleveland and Minnesota, 30-25.
10:11Speaking of the Twins, they are out in Seattle this weekend taking on the Mariners.
10:17Minnesota, the longest win streak this year in the Bigs, 13 consecutive.
10:21But when that came to a close a few weekends ago in the nine games since, the Twins, four
10:26and five.
10:27The Mariners still a half-game advantage over Houston for the top spot in the AL West.
10:32But the M's just got beat in their midweek series yesterday in extras, nine to three.
10:37The defeat against the Washington Nationals, Seattle has dropped four of its previous
10:42five.
10:43This weekend's set starts tonight out in the Northwest with the Mariners a minus-144 home
10:48money line favorite.
10:49A short total tonight standing at only seven.
10:52DRS, what do you like out in Seattle today between the Mariners and the Twins?
10:56Yeah, not a great profile, per se, for the Seattle Mariners lineup going up against Zebby
11:00Matthews.
11:00But Zebby Matthews, only 35 total batters faced on the season.
11:03It's hard to try to compile some statistics and say what you don't like and what you do like.
11:07Cal Raleigh's always going to be in there.
11:09Rowdy Tellez will be in there just as left-handed hitters going up against a right-handed pitcher.
11:13But the fact of the matter is, where's the offense going to come from Minnesota side of
11:16things?
11:17Buxton and Larnock and Cody Clemens all have decent weighted on base percentage and ISO
11:21power numbers against right-handed pitching on the season.
11:23But you take a look at Brian Wu.
11:25Overall, 249 batters he's faced.
11:27How about a 102 ISO power number against and a weighted on base percentage of 248?
11:32You take that into the last 30 days, which is 122 batters that he's faced.
11:36That goes lower to an 092 ISO and a weighted on base percentage of 244 and a K rate of 25%.
11:43There's a reason why Seattle is favored by that much.
11:45Number one, they're going to be home.
11:46And number two, they have the better pitcher on the mound.
11:49The seven, it's hard to go under seven.
11:50Because again, three from either side.
11:52Like starting pitchers, let's just go six innings here.
11:54You still got to deal with the bullpen and extra innings.
11:56So it's hard to say, I love an under under seven, even though I lean to that direction.
12:00But sometimes just lean on the better pitcher.
12:01And that better pitcher today is Brian Wu.
12:03Yeah, Brian Wu on the bump for Seattle again, a half game lead for the Mariners right now
12:08in the American League West.
12:10We'll talk about the Astros who got beat bad yesterday as well, allowing 13 runs to the
12:15Tampa Bay Rays.
12:17That extended weekend series, a four game set in H-Town continues on this Friday.
12:23Still so much to break down around Major League Baseball.
12:26We'll do it on the other side of the break in the mind of one Donnie Wright side.
12:31Pro baseball today, by the way, or it's a 10 a.m.
12:33Eastern time each and every Sunday.
12:36Yeah.
12:36Yeah.
12:36Love.
12:37That's good.
12:38Oh, you were hyped by that.
12:39That's what we love.
12:40Aye.
12:40For the break.
12:41Next.
12:42Plenty more setting the stage for a weekend in Major League Baseball from the bright mind
12:47of Donnie Wright side.
12:49Let's continue breaking down all 15 of the games we have on this Friday.
12:53Now, we might not get to all 15, but a ton of the games that we have on this full Friday
12:58slate.
12:58We talked about Seattle half game advantage right now for the M's atop the American League
13:03West, but the Houston Astros only that half game behind.
13:07The Strohs got beat bad yesterday in the opener of a four game weekend set against the Rays.
13:11This one, not a George Steinbrenner field in Tampa in Houston, 13 to three.
13:17Donnie's favorite pitcher on the card, Ryan Mucho Gusto Gusto yesterday for the Strohs.
13:24Now, he wasn't overly bad.
13:26The Rays added a ton of runs late.
13:29Houston's ace is from Revaldez.
13:31He gets the start today for the Strohs as they look to even up this weekend set early
13:36here on this Friday.
13:37Minus 164, that updated money line price.
13:40And a total now up by a hook DRS to a what we see here in game number two in Houston.
13:46And probably good pitching performance here.
13:48And hopefully you get that for Houston.
13:50You didn't get it yesterday.
13:51Starting pitch was okay.
13:52Bullpen was absolutely terrible.
13:53Then you're going to lean on Frambois Valdez.
13:55Third overall in the card today with XFIP numbers on a total of 28 pitchers.
14:00He's coming with an 82 XFIP minus a 3.39 ERA and a 3.36 XFIP number.
14:05You take a look at Valdez here.
14:06Let's just go over the past 30 days as a left-handed pitcher.
14:09How about a 25% strikeout rate?
14:11How about lefty striking out against him at a 42% clip here?
14:14And you take a look at the ISO power number, which means extra base hits and power, an 0.85.
14:19And you take a look at the weighted on base percentage, 267.
14:22Equal opportunity too, Ben.
14:23Dominating lefty and righty batters here.
14:26You flip to that Tampa Bay Rays lineup, which I usually like the lefties in that lineup.
14:29But again, lefties on lefties against a lefty pitcher that dominates lefties usually doesn't
14:33work out in your favor.
14:35Now, having said that, Diaz, Caminero, Lowe, and also Morrill, all Lowe weighted on base
14:39percentages and ISO power numbers going up against left-handed pitching.
14:42Danny Jansen, the only bright spot in the middle of that lineup, but that's not good enough.
14:46You can't have one or two guys that are hitting left-handed pitching well when you're going
14:49against an elite left-handed hitting pitcher.
14:51So it is a heavy favorite for Houston, but a bounce back should be in place today.
14:55Take a look at Pepeo on the other side.
14:56He's actually had a pretty clean last 30 days.
14:59ISO power number, 116.
15:00Weighted on base percentage, 273, which over the entire parts of the season, 261 batters faced.
15:06Those numbers are elevated.
15:07So two pitchers coming in in really good form.
15:09But again, it is a small ballpark that usually doesn't hold home runs and runs all that well,
15:14like you saw last night, particularly from Tampa's side.
15:16Maybe more of a lean to the under today, even though that lineup today for the Houston Astros
15:21really checks out well against right-handed pitching over the past couple weeks.
15:25So if I'm saying, you know what?
15:26Lean towards the money line on Houston more than maybe the under in the game.
15:31Junior Caminero, by the way, a career-best six RBIs yesterday, a part of the 13 runs scored by the Rays yesterday.
15:40A big one for Tampa to start off.
15:42The Rays, the only other team right now in the American League East, not named the New York Yankees above 500.
15:49The Blue Jays in even 500.
15:52The Boston Red Sox now four games below 500.
15:55A lot of excitement for this year's Sox team, DRS, and maybe being a true pennant contender in the AL hasn't happened just yet.
16:04Boston has dropped five consecutive games.
16:06What is this?
16:07MLB rivalry weekend?
16:09A second edition?
16:10We head to Atlanta today.
16:11The old rivals, the Braves and the Red Sox face off this weekend in the A.
16:16The Braves avoided a sweep yesterday in the finale against Philadelphia.
16:20But like Boston, a disappointing start, three games below 500 for the Braves.
16:26They are a home favorite today.
16:28Grant Holmes gets the nod.
16:29Lucas Giolito on the other side for the Sox.
16:32What's the play today in the A?
16:34Yeah, it's nice to have close to 10-mile-an-hour winds blowing out to left center field today.
16:38Temperatures in the low 70s and not really worried about rain.
16:41That's fantastic.
16:42We actually love that.
16:43Grant Holmes, not a great pitcher, but also only 16th on the card today out of 28.
16:46So right around midway, 100 XFIP minus, which is average in ERA.
16:51That's decent at 3.68 and an XFIP number of 3.97, very manageable.
16:55On this season, he's done really well against left-handed batters at 150 ISO and a weighted
17:00on base percentage of 275.
17:02But if you flip it over to the last 30 days, he's faced 65 left-handed batters, a 258 ISO
17:07and a weighted on base percentage of 335 and a little bit dipping there in that K rate.
17:11You take a look at some of the left-handed batters in the lineup for Boston.
17:14They've done very well against right-handed pitching over the past month.
17:17Starts with Jaron Duran, a 187 ISO power number, weighted on base percentage of 360.
17:21Raphael Devers, dude, about two in the lineup tonight.
17:24297 ISO with a 475 weighted on base percentage going up against right-handed pitching.
17:29And then you have Willi Obreu, one of my favorite batters in that lineup.
17:3183 at-bats against right-handed pitching over the past month, 262.
17:36Now, also understand this.
17:37The Atlanta Braves yesterday played two games in Philadelphia, and you were on the road,
17:41and you're flying back, but that top of the lineup looks decent.
17:44Acuna, Baldwin, Ozuna, Olsen, and Riley all heavy, weighted on base percentages against
17:48right-handed pitching over the past 30 days, which Lucas Giolito has struggled against
17:52lefties over the past 30 days here.
17:55So those lefties in the lineup is Matt Olsen and Drake Baldwin, probably legitimate chances
17:59to get RBI in that spot here.
18:01A little bit of a heavy favorite for Atlanta to sort of back it that way.
18:05So maybe a couple RBI props make a little bit more sense with some of those left-handed
18:08batters going against these two right-handed pitchers.
18:10Yeah, Donnie, it's a matter of time right now for these teams to start to figure things
18:14out.
18:14There's a lot of this MLB season remaining, but you really got to start to turn things
18:19around rather quickly as you approach the end of May.
18:22Two more days in May, and then it's June, and then before you know it, you're nearing the
18:25MLB All-Star break in the middle of July.
18:29Fork Watch is out for the Braves.
18:31Red Sox not nearly as high of expectations, so maybe not on Fork Watch just yet.
18:37But Boston was just swept by the Milwaukee Brewers, including a couple of extra inning
18:41walk-offs for the Brew Crew.
18:43They've won four straight, eight of their last 11.
18:46They're now above .500 by a game, and they head to Philadelphia today, where the Phils
18:51await this weekend with the best record in the National League, 36-20, the mark for Philadelphia.
18:57Today, the Phils a home favorite, around minus 142 on the money line.
19:01DRS, that total on its way up.
19:03Nine-and-a-half should be a decent Friday night in the greater regional Philadelphia
19:07area, if I am not mistaken.
19:10How much offense do we see tonight at the bank?
19:13Still some rain in the forecast.
19:15I don't know how, I don't know if it's going to be around game time or maybe late in the
19:18game, because we're expecting a couple inches of rain, at least overnight.
19:21Hopefully, that doesn't creep into this one.
19:22But 73-degree temperatures are like, light wind blowing out, you'll like that as well.
19:26But D.L.
19:26Hall, I'm listed as a starting pitcher here.
19:28Only 10 batters faced on the season.
19:30It doesn't list him as an opener here, so I don't know how long he goes.
19:33But also, the question is going to be, is Bryce Harper going to be back in the lineup
19:35after basically missing three games?
19:37Missed the first game of the Atlanta series after, what, one at bat and then sat out the
19:41double header after the rain out here.
19:43So maybe he comes back healthiness.
19:45The one guy that doesn't care who it's lefties or righties, it's Kyle Schwerber.
19:48How about 42 at-bats against lefty into pitching as a lefty that he struggled with in
19:52his career?
19:52A 441 ISO and a 466 weighted on base percentage.
19:56Now, Tywon Walker has been decent for the Philadelphia Phillies.
19:59Not a big strikeout guy, but look at his last 72 batters that he's faced.
20:02An 078 ISO power number and a 258 weighted on base percentage.
20:07I would lean towards the Philadelphia Phillies, but they also were home at least and played
20:11a double header, had to use some pitchers in there.
20:13Maybe they're a little bit, you know, rest for the weary, not on their side.
20:16But I'm looking forward to seeing if Bryce Harper does come back tonight.
20:19If he does, like nine at 10 runs at Citizens Bank ballpark isn't a ton when you don't really
20:23have two flamethrowers per se on the mound.
20:26Could it go over?
20:27Yes.
20:27But the numbers, like if Harper's not playing and then you take a look at this lineup tonight
20:30for the Brewers, which is underwhelming, gets right into pitching and Walker's been good.
20:34I don't know if we get 10 runs tonight, to be honest.
20:37Yeah, I could see that, right?
20:38We have a very high total there working its way up to nine and a half.
20:43Dayton Lane Hall.
20:44That's DL Hall, who has made one appearance this year for Milwaukee.
20:49Set to get the start tonight, though, for the Brewers against the Philadelphia Phillies.
20:53Again, a full slate on this Friday, a great weekend ahead in Major League Baseball.
20:57Where do you ask?
20:58We talked about some disappointing teams to start off this year.
21:01What are the more surprising teams in a positive way who has had an unreal month of May?
21:06That would be the St. Louis Cardinals, 14 and 17 at the end of April.
21:11Now 32 and 24, 18 and 7, the mark for the Redbirds.
21:17And Donnie's favorite pitcher in Major League Baseball on the bump today.
21:20That's the big lib, Matthew Libertor, as the Cardinals get ready for a week-end set against the Texas Rangers.
21:28St. Louis, an ever-so-slight road money line favorite today.
21:31Will Matthew Libertor deliver for St. Louis?
21:35Yeah, I think St. Louis wins because I do think they have the better pitcher on the mound on the season.
21:38You take a look at Jack Leiter.
21:39He's got a 126 XFIP minus number, an ERA above four, but an XFIP number of over five.
21:44Really struggling over the past 30 days with left-handed batters.
21:47Lars Nupar, Brandon Donovan in the middle of that lineup, Alec Burleson do make some sense.
21:51One of my favorite hitters in Major League Baseball, Mason Wynn in that number two hole.
21:55A 496 weighted on base percentage against right into pitching over his past month.
21:59Marvin DRS, Game 6 preview in Indy next.
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