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00:00Joe tonight again, get the bunting out and put it around your house. Why? It's Major League Baseball
00:05opening night. That is the New York Yankees and Max Fried on the road to take on Logan Webb
00:10and the San Francisco Giants. This line opened up as a total, Joe, six and a half. It's now seven
00:15across the landscape and still a favorite all the way through for the New York Yankees sitting at a
00:20minus 122 price. The Bay Area low 60s where this game will start. Wind is blowing out, but it blows
00:25out every single game in San Francisco to center field right around 10 miles per hour. Joe always
00:30tells you as well as I do. The big weather guy, you get that Marine layer on the West Coast.
00:35Bam!
00:35What a home run. Oh no, Joe. Warning track power. What are we looking at tonight for your spread line
00:40Yankees and Giants? Well, you know, it's interesting here. First game, right? I do like the under,
00:48Donnie. I've been saying it all week. I think pitchers always ahead of hitters at this point
00:53in the season. I think the under has got some value, especially early, maybe in the first five,
00:58but if it's going to be an under, Donnie feels like that's a pretty good price to take the run
01:03and a half with the Giants at home as well. Yeah, no, it's I'm telling you, it's hard to watch
01:09sometimes understand this. These games, we will eventually get hits in, but opening day, which
01:13means Joe, everybody in the bullpen is healthy. You're starting pitcher is your ace for the season
01:18here. Runs are tough to come by. And also the line movements here, six and a half to seven is
01:23massive. Why? It means it takes eight to beat you if you take an under, as opposed to seven here.
01:27I can't wait to watch this thing play out. It's Major League Baseball opening night,
01:31and we're going to get you ready for it. No doubt about it. It's your only line on a hump
01:34day
01:35Wednesday, right here on the Sports Grid Network. Used to be opening day in Major League Baseball.
01:39Everybody played. Everybody got excited. Not the case, but I don't actually mind this, Joe.
01:43We have a standalone game here in Major League Baseball to open the season.
01:46Now the NFL has done it really the right way by saying, all right, opening night is for the
01:51world champions. They'll open at home. They'll wear some glitter gold out there and we'll show
01:55the Lamardi trophy the official kickoff to the NFL season. I do think Major League Baseball should
02:00actually do that. It's a nice tradition to have. However, here's the new tradition of Major League
02:05Baseball. This is the crown jewel of your regular season outside of making the playoffs is opening day
02:11slash opening night. You're supposed to get as many eyeballs as this game as you possibly can.
02:15They chose two good teams, Joe, right? Big city in San Francisco, big city in New York. People want
02:20to watch this game. The question is, how many people are going to watch this game, Joe? Because it's on
02:26Netflix and not widely available. Well, I mean, I like to think, Donnie, in this day and age of cord
02:35cutting here that most people likely have a Netflix account. And when it comes to subscription-based
02:44services, Donnie, to watch sports, I would think that the average sports fan, right, probably doesn't
02:51have a problem going in and having a Netflix account because it kills two birds with one stone.
02:56You can satisfy your better half, right, and be like, hey, watch whatever you want as long as
03:01and know that you've got sports coming on Netflix here. I think it's a better deal. And I think that
03:08true baseball fans already have the subscription, and I think anybody that doesn't yet likely will
03:15because it's not just a sports subscription. It's going to give you the opportunity to have,
03:20you know, movies and everything else. So I don't hate the partnership here. I think it actually makes
03:26sense in this day and age. Yeah, most people do have Netflix. I have Netflix. It's no problem to me.
03:30I just think it's a pain in the neck sometimes where you're watching on a singular TV. You got
03:34to opt out of Netflix to turn the channel, get back into Netflix, but also like watching all those
03:39games. And partnerships are big. Like I have T-Mobile as my mobile carrier. I get MLB.tv free for
03:43the
03:43year just for having T-Mobile. So those partnerships are out there. Netflix here. They're trying. Look,
03:48they have a lot of money. Major League Baseball is not going to not take their money. But how about
03:51this, Joe? We like some gimmicks at time to time. Did you see who's giving a help out there with
03:56the ceremonial first pitch here? Did you see who's actually going to do that, Joe?
04:03Who is it? Oh, no. Is it the Adams fan? Like, who is it? Who is doing the first pitch
04:10here,
04:10Donnie? Who is it? What's the name officially of it? Is it the hand? Like, what is the name of
04:16the Adams family, like, thing? It was. Isn't there a name for it? Yeah. Was that the name the hand?
04:23I think it was just the hand. Oh, thing. There we go. Thing. Oh, thing. That's right. Yes. There
04:27we go. Yes. Yeah. It's just hand. Matter of fact, this name the hand would help a little bit
04:31better. Exactly. Come on. Fester and all the boys. Cousin it and thing. That's it. Yes. Well done,
04:37Bobby. Well done. That'll get the people watching out here at this point. All right. The Yankees here.
04:41Opening day roster. You see this here with the graphic, Joe. Expected to do a lot of damage. One of
04:45the
04:45favorites in the American League. And you see the pitchers on there, Joe. Schlittler, Yarborough,
04:50Weathers, Hill, Herrick, Bednar, Freed, Blackburn, Bird, Cruz, Doval, Wincrest, Warren. One guy
04:57missing there, Joe, that needs to come back sooner than later to be that all-star starter
05:02that we expected to be one of the best pitchers in baseball. But he got injured last year.
05:06Hmm. Who's that? Yeah. Well, he'll be back. And there's really no reason for them to rush
05:12him back. Right. I mean that they should have both him and Rodon for that matter. They should
05:19be more than enough here. I mean, you know, I need to see Louie Heal kind of get back to
05:25where he was a couple of years. So they've got some, they certainly have some guys that
05:29can hold down the fort until they come. And what a boost that'll be, Donnie, you know,
05:33come June or July. And all of a sudden you can get those two guys, two front end starters
05:37of your rotation. That'll work well. But in the meantime, you still have a true number one
05:42and Max Freed on the mountain. This guy would be a number one on any other team in
05:47major league baseball. And he was their number one last year. So I, you know, the Yankees,
05:53I think are in pretty good shape until those reinforcements get back.
05:58Hey, we'll see if those reinforcements do get back and how quickly it helps. But Monday,
06:02or I should say Wednesday night, we know it's going to be opening night, not going to be
06:05out those players, but Max Freed is going to be on the mound. He's going to go up against
06:08Logan Webb. But before we get to there, Joe, I have a little home run props here. You know,
06:12it's opening night. The people are going to push the button down on who Aaron judge plus
06:17two 35 listed on that graphic. And thank goodness. Cause this morning, some outlets are up to plus
06:21two 55. That's the way it should be Joe plus two 55 for a home in a, one of the
06:26toughest ballpark
06:27state, a home run against an ace. Come on. What are we doing out here, Joe?
06:30I like Stanton more. I like judge in this spot, but no, this is not a good ballpark,
06:36especially right off the bat, especially against two guys who a don't walk a ton of guys and keep
06:43the ball on the ground, Donnie. Jazz Chisholm plus six 80 swinging from the heels. Joe,
06:48you can make it happen. It's a national holiday today, Joe. What is it? No, it's not St. Patrick
06:54Jay. We just had it. It's major league baseball opening night. Yankees versus the giants. I love
06:58this too. Cause I love major league baseball. Do I love baseball a ton in April to watch it?
07:03Absolutely. But to bet on it, sometimes it's not the best Joe. And I love to take dogs.
07:07Everybody thinks Joe, they can win a world series in the month of March and April. Once we get the
07:12May, June and July, the has and the have not start to kick in Joe. How do you approach major
07:17league
07:17baseball for me? Of course it's later on the units, but I love to take team totals to the over.
07:22I love
07:22to take batting props to the over, but sometimes Joe, as you take a look, boy, it's cold conditions.
07:28The batters aren't caught up yet here. Aces are still healthy early in the season. How do you
07:32approach major league baseball to start the season off for you?
07:35Well, especially early Donnie to me, listen, nine innings in April, right? And of March,
07:43beginning of April and may, there is so much variance in major league baseball. It's crazy.
07:49So what I try to do is take a lot of that variance out. And the best way to do
07:54that
07:54is I'm a big first five guy early. I want nothing to do with bullpens in April and May. I
08:02need to see
08:03what's there in a lot of spots, Donnie. They're still trying to figure out who's who. And a lot
08:07of these bullpens, the one thing that we know for sure is the starting pitching. We know starting
08:13pitchers. We have a pretty good idea. We have a ton of data on a lot of these guys. So
08:19we have,
08:20and we know that pitchers are better than hitters right now. They're just more in tune, right? Still
08:25colder weather, not as many runs scored. So I look, I look at a lot of unders and I look
08:31at a lot of
08:32first five bets, Donnie, because that to me, you eliminate half the variance that way of trying to
08:38figure out who's who and what's what in these bullpens here early on in the season.
08:43You know, I like to, Joe, because each and every year, like there's a lot of sports outlets that you
08:47can handicap on and gamble on, per se. Now we have the predicted markets coming in. And last
08:51year, one of those fun profits that I found in being successful at through Major League Baseball
08:55season was the one hit run RBI marketplace. And again, there'll be more of this this year
08:59and the explanation as we go on the early line throughout the summer and the spring months.
09:03We'll explain these here, but just to keep it simple, it's a player, Joe, to either record a hit,
09:07a run, or an RBI. Not all three, any combination. Now, granted, you might say, Donnie,
09:12it sounds too easy. Yeah. If you just take a single play like Aaron Judge, it's minus 400 for him.
09:17And have one of those, but you pair them up with another player and say, okay, Aaron Judge get a
09:21hit runner in RBI. Let's go with Ben Rice. And let's just say, Joe, they're side by side in the
09:25lineup. So Aaron Judge walks and then Ben Rice has a double to drive him in. He cashed that ticket,
09:30which would pay out still at a minus 156. But the goal would be maybe get another person in there,
09:34another player, or try to find an advantageous matchup. Each and every year, Joe, sometimes these
09:39sports books give you some different outlets that you can use to your advantage. And there's so much
09:43fun to cheer in just as the simple, hey, I have a money line or a total at this point,
09:47because everybody's been through that. Love the money lines. They're a lot of fun. Yes.
09:50Four to one in the eighth inning. I lost five to four because the bullpen absolutely blew up.
09:55Those are excruciating, Joe. Team totals in the first five innings, totals in the first five
09:59innings, keeping those pitchers on the mound where you know exactly who's pitching and who's
10:03batting at that point, Joe. It's very rare for me. You'll see me take a full game wager,
10:08Joe, on a side anymore in Major League Baseball. It's impossible to do. And I'm with you. I mean,
10:14you know, once we get to the dog days of summer and we are pretty established at that point,
10:20any crazy injuries, we have a pretty good idea. There's so much data in Major League Baseball
10:26that accumulates so quickly in 162 game season, Donnie, that we're able to utilize that data
10:32into making some, you know, smart decisions here when it comes to matchups and strikeouts and those
10:39types of things here. But I am with you. No way. Full games for the first two, two and a
10:45half
10:45months of the season. No way. You just can't trust the bullpens and the late game craziness
10:52much more comfortable with starting pitchers versus lineups, at least, Donnie. And another thing that
10:58became big, you know, the first three innings is another big prop bet in a prop market because
11:04then you don't have to worry about a guy seeing it the third time through, right? Two times through,
11:10I'm good to go. And there are a lot of starting pitchers that thrive as long as they don't see
11:15them the third time through the order. You're right about that, too, because when you take a look at,
11:19let's just say, you're trying to hone in. I call it betting in a vacuum. I know the starting pitcher
11:23is going to be. I know the one through nine lineup is. And boy, was it excruciating for years and
11:27years
11:27and years, Joe, to have like a team total prop? And you'd see this, right? Second, excuse me,
11:32second and third with two outs, the eight hole hitter up. Awesome. Get a base hit. They'd walk
11:36the eight hole hitter. The pitcher would strike in on three pitchers. It was so excruciating. At least
11:41we don't have that anymore. But the understanding of how do you approach things? Because say what you
11:45want. There are some bad bullpens out there, Joe, but the evolution of the bullpen arm was,
11:49hey, I used to come into the inning and the seventh inning, throw a couple of junk pitches here,
11:53max out at 86 on my fastball because that's why I was in the bullpen. Now, Joe, sixth, seventh inning,
11:57eighth inning guys throw in 97, 98, a hundred miles per hour. So I do like the starting pitchers
12:02because the one thing we watch in the all-star game, hey, you know what? Scooby's going to go
12:05out there for an inning. He's maxing out in that inning, throwing all this stuff that you can have
12:09because he's going to pitch 12 pitches and not have to say, I have to extend myself to those seven
12:13or
12:13eight innings. That's why you take advantage of those pitchers. And Joe is right. You get three or
12:17four bats against that single pitcher. And then you leave it up to the bullpen. They go, oh no,
12:21second and third one out. You're bringing in your lefty reliever here who's designed to get the
12:25lefty out that I already bet on the start of the game. So many different ways in Major League
12:29Baseball, you can bet it's fun. But for me, sometimes it is frustrating. It's like,
12:32boy, I thought that game would go over. Well, what did you think, Donnie? It's 38 degrees at
12:36Citi Field on April the 6th here. The ball isn't traveling. Once we get into those summer months where
12:43getting in from March to April into May, June, and July, the hitting weather comes in. It's a lot
12:47of fun. And I was talking about Joe earlier, the one plus one plus one mark with hits,
12:51runs RBI. You can level those up. Let's just say you take Aaron Judge tonight and he hits a two
12:55run
12:55home run tonight, Joe. You know what that would do? That would hit a plus 220 price. Why? Two RBI.
13:00He scored a run and he got a base hit here. You can level those up in parlays. It's so
13:05much fun
13:05to do that here to start the season. I'd like to tell the people, Joe, experiment with a couple of
13:09these new wagers that you haven't had early in the season with light wagers. Yeah, I agree here.
13:15But also don't go crazy in early on, especially, you know, the home run market is not advantageous.
13:24The prices in the home run market, when you consider guys on average, Donnie, 500 bats a
13:30season or more, you know, even the best guys, the judges, the hotel, what do they hit? 50 home runs,
13:3755 home runs. The map doesn't equal plus 200 guys for them to hit a home run in the game.
13:44So
13:44you're not getting any bargains in that market. Look, look a little further down, you know,
13:51get me a number seven, eight or nine guy that we think can hit a home run at price. That
13:55to me
13:55is worth betting in those markets. You go to FanDuel right now and take Aaron Judge for a home run
14:01here.
14:01Let's just call plus 250. You go over to Cal sheet, take the no. There's a no market now, people.
14:06What a day to be alive. We'll be right back. Let's talk more sports next on the early line.
14:11We always like to say on the show, forget the other shows in the mix, you get in the mix
14:15in
14:15the early line. Like that's the tagline we came up with a long time ago. And that's the way we
14:18like
14:19it here. It's Donnie Wright's out. It's Joe and Erie. And now we bring in Kevin Walsh on the big
14:24screen here. Kevin, welcome in. Even if you're Cam, Cam Stewart. Love it. Oh, from Canada.
14:30Yeah. Blue Jays, baby. Opening day. Opening day in Toronto, baby. Let's get after it, guys.
14:40Now we're going to have some fun today. Certainly game time decisions. Watch it nightly Monday
14:43through Friday right here on the network, 6 p.m. to 7 p.m. It's Kevin Walsh. It's Gabriel
14:47Morenci. It's going to be a lot of Dodgers coming up because it is opening night. But Kevin,
14:51opening night does not deal with the Dodgers tonight. It's your New York Yankees taking on
14:55the San Francisco Giants. People will go bankrupt betting on home run props tonight and having
14:59fun. It's a light line. You're on the money line. The total sits around 7, Kevin. I just
15:04like baseball being back. I'm excited for tonight. What are you thinking?
15:08I'm excited as well. The World Baseball Classic, I think, was such a success that having, you
15:17know, real baseball then follow it up is a good thing. I think people are going to be excited
15:21to bet major league baseball. This game specifically is interesting because I'm wondering if we're
15:29getting an opening day line, if you will, where if this was a June baseball game, is this closer
15:39to pick if not the San Francisco Giants as favorites? And it's not to say that I think the Yankees
15:45are not good or that I think the Giants are unbelievable. I think the Yankees are slightly
15:51better, but it's Logan Webb at home. There's a, what would be the biggest favorite? It's probably
15:59Yamamoto at home, right? I don't think there's a single team, single pitcher on that team that could
16:06go to the Dodgers and be booked as a favorite over Yamamoto. I'm not saying Logan Webb is of that
16:13status, but the Yankees and Freed favored against Logan Webb at home. It seems a little heavy to me
16:21on New York.
16:24What, I mean, Kev, what do you think? Big picture with the Yankees though this year. What, what are
16:29you, are you looking, there's still the class of the American League East? Are you, you know,
16:35reinforcements should be back in a couple months or Don and Cole coming back. What do you think?
16:40So I think it's a great question because it's 90 and a half for a win total. And usually it'd
16:47be
16:47very difficult to argue a lot of value on a Yankee win total over, but Aaron Boone is Aaron Boone
16:55for
16:55a reason. What I mean is it's very difficult to have everyone want you fired for about a half a
17:03decade, but also give the organization enough to keep you around. They are regular season juggernauts
17:10eight seasons for Boone. One of them COVID will throw that out. So in six of the seven full seasons,
17:16they've won at least 92 games, six of the set. Like they always win 90 plus eight. Like,
17:26and I don't see why this would be any different. People are like, Oh, they brought the same team
17:31back. Yes. The same team that won 94 games and lost on a tie break to the Toronto Blue Jays
17:39for first place in the division, the pitching, the pitching should be fantastic. And if it ever gets
17:49healthy and it probably won't, but if it ever does, it could contend with the Dodgers for the best in
17:56baseball, even the pitching that they're going to have while it's not healthy, while they wait for
18:00Cole and Rodon and so on and so forth, it should be really, really good. I do think, gosh, almighty,
18:09man, Aaron judge is out there. He must be looking around like, I can't believe I just played in the
18:14WBC
18:15and now I need Cody Bellinger to be my number two. But again, it's, it's, it's who they are,
18:23right? You guys are not far away from Donnie sitting here and ripping off a New York Yankees
18:30lineup where the weighted on base average has the leader in baseball and eight other guys who
18:37absolutely stink, but it'll probably be enough for them to win a series against the Cincinnati Reds.
18:44Yeah. It should be a good one tonight. Getting started on Netflix tonight with the thing
18:48throwing out the first picture. Let's get down to the business here, having some fun there with
18:52Kevin Walsh, game time decisions, him and Gabe night to night, Monday through Friday, getting you ready
18:57for tip off here. And certainly tomorrow night going to be big time, but also tonight, major league
19:01baseball, make sure you tune in there and have some fun. Also understand this yesterday, Joe and I
19:06swept the car. So today in this segment, we're going to give out some best bets in just a few
19:10moments.
19:11But before we do that, Joe, we always like to reach out to the public and see where they're
19:15going tonight. Here's our favorite, the public poll.
19:25Yankee tax Joe is alive and well, but maybe not so much tonight. Slight favorite for the Yankees on
19:30the road with Max Fried on the mound. The question we asked at sports grid on our X account, who
19:34are you
19:35taking to win opening day? The Yankees or the Giants, New York, the favorite right now, live 62.8%.
19:41San Francisco, 25.6%. I don't want baseball 11.6%. That's probably just NBA fans upset that now
19:49nobody will watch the regular season because now we have major league baseball in our lives. For me,
19:54Joe, I did pick New York for the slight favorite, but it's a pretty good game on opening night. Not
19:58a
19:58heavy favorite, but people are saying the Yankees should win tonight based on the public.
20:03Yeah. Yeah. But for those people that I'm not in Washington's playing Utah tonight in the NBA,
20:10if you want to catch that, some great games there with, you know, guys on the court that nobody's
20:15ever heard of and nobody will ever hear of again there. But no, I listen, I think it's a great
20:22game
20:22to start the season. I think it's the right showcase game. I don't, you know, unfortunately,
20:29they start major league baseball season and go in head to head now with the sweet 16. But you know
20:33what, Donnie? We got more than one TV. We got more than one subscription. We'll be able to watch it
20:38all. And of course, you know where I'm going here. I like the Yankees and I agree with those that
20:44backed them here. You know what I like best tonight, Joe? We got one game in major league baseball.
20:49They're going to start this on the West Coast at 8.05 so we can all enjoy this game. If
20:53NCAA had
20:54control of opening night, this would be an 11 o'clock game on the West Coast where nobody will
20:58be able to watch it. And that would make the most sense here. But you know what makes sense?
21:03Winning money. Sweep last night on the court. Today, two more wagers. Here comes Bye Bye Bye.
21:14Sweeping it last night. Love to see it. You got NBA action tonight.
21:19NIT action. You got hockey. You got NBA, Joe. Where do we go tonight to put some money in the
21:24people's pocket? Well, Donnie, let's go. Right? We got major league baseball here tonight. Let's go to
21:31that game and let's take a look at these two starting pitchers. Both Max Fried and Logan Webb
21:38are two of the best ground ball pitchers in all of major league baseball. When you take into
21:44consideration the ballpark here, which isn't conducive to a whole lot of runs, when you take
21:50into consideration that, oh, yeah, Donnie, they tend not to hit the ball out of the ballpark and
21:58pitchers are ahead of schedule. How do I know that? You realize what Logan Webb, who was part of the
22:04World Baseball Classic, two starts, Donnie, with Team USA. He's got 11 strikeouts, one walk over
22:11eight and two thirds innings and two starts. Yeah, the Ballinger and company, yeah, it's not going to
22:17be a ton of offense here tonight. First five under. I trust both Fried and Webb to neutralize the
22:24lineups here and get us under that three and a half runs here. Maybe one nothing, one one heading
22:31into the sixth inning. Major league baseball takes center stage. It's opening night in San Francisco as
22:37the Yankees come to town. Fried's going to take on Webb. You take a look and you go to the
22:41Calci
22:42marketplace and say, all right, New York currently trading as the favorite, a 53% chance to win this
22:47game. San Francisco at 47%. If we take a look at the run line in this one, New York Yankees
22:53to be
22:53favored by one and a half. That's currently trading at a 39% chance. I think the Yankees will win
22:58this
22:58game, Joe, by two or more runs. A hundred dollar investment can pay back $250. If you look at the
23:05sliding
23:05scale here on the total, Joe, seven and a half is currently trading at a 42% chance here on
23:11the
23:11Calci marketplace. I like it. I mean, we talked about it, you know, previous that I do love these
23:18two pitchers. I love number ones early in the season going up against other number ones. And you
23:25can't help but to be impressed with what Logan Webb has done here, Donnie, with Team USA and the World
23:31Baseball Classic. He had two starts against the best from around the world. 11 strikeouts, only
23:38one walk, eight and two thirds innings in those two starts. I am looking at his strikeout prop. I am
23:45looking at team total under for the runs, especially early. I think this has got 3-2, 3-1 written
23:53all over
23:54here. And yeah, I think Logan Webb to me would be the pitcher and that prop market that I would
24:01be
24:01concentrating on here. And also take a look at these predictive markets versus the traditional
24:05sports books. We brought up John Carlos Stanton yesterday, Joe. We had a hit prop here, much more
24:10advantageous on Calci than it was on FanDuel. But the one thing we always keep our eyes open, and we
24:14even did this during football season, Joe, you say, boy, that touchdown prop is ridiculous for
24:19Christian McCaffrey. But unlike FanDuel and DraftKings, you can't bet no touchdown. You take a look at
24:23Calci Marketplace. You can bet the no, which includes home runs, Joe. So when you see Aaron
24:28Judge and everybody thinks he's going to hit a home run, you might think that price point is
24:31ridiculous. And on FanDuel, as we said, you can't bet the no home run on the Calci Marketplace. You
24:36can bet no home runs here. So you take a look at Aaron Judge and if you say, you know
24:40what? I don't
24:40think he hits a home run tonight, Joe. $100 investment will pay back $129, but it's just called balancing
24:46the market here. It's like you're getting over on a price point that's way out of whack here for a
24:50yes home run. Now you can counter it, Joe, by taking the contract on the no home runs. Love
24:55this stuff. Yeah. And the nerfy, Nani. I would look into the nerfy here tonight as well. Yep. I
25:02think that's all correlated. Baseball is back in our life. It's great here and we'll have it
25:07coverage all season long radio and prediction markets edge on the early line.
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