'Things have become too important for silly political games', analyst says as Hungary sidelined

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00:00Let's bring in Sven Biskop, he's Director of the Europe in the World Programme at the

00:04Egmont Royal Institute for International Relations in Brussels.

00:08Thank you so much for being with us on the programme this evening, Sven.

00:13Just talk to us a little bit.

00:14We heard from our Europe editor a little earlier talking about what exactly has been happening

00:18in Brussels, but just in terms of actual concrete measures, can you explain to us what is likely

00:24to come out of this summit overall?

00:27What is surely very important is the relaxed budgetary rules so that states, as was explained,

00:33can cut through their debt ceiling because most governments, to enable the quick increase

00:41in defence spending, they will have to create additional debt.

00:45And because, let's not forget it, it is the member states, it's the national governments

00:49who will have to increase their defence spending primarily, not the EU per se.

00:55So the EU is a facilitator.

00:57And how will that work in terms of individual member states who all have quite different

01:01policies when it comes to defence?

01:03Some being neutral, others being less so, how is all of that going to play out in each

01:08individual country?

01:10Most EU member states, not all, but most are of course also members of NATO, and indeed

01:15NATO does provide very concrete guidance, very concrete capability targets.

01:21What we have to do is add to those because we have heard from US Secretary of Defence

01:26Hexet two weeks ago that the Americans want Europeans to take ownership of all of Europe's

01:33conventional defence, meaning the strategic enablers that the US contributed so far, we

01:38will now have to have ourselves, command structures, satellites, air defence, missiles, and so on

01:44and so forth.

01:45So basically member states collectively have to sit together, add to their NATO targets,

01:52and those targets, they provide them the guidance for what collectively they can do, helped

01:57by what the EU has now decided.

02:00And do you believe, Sven, that Europe can defend itself without assistance from the

02:05US?

02:06Does it actually have the military capacity?

02:09If you add up all the forces of all the EU member states, all the European NATO allies,

02:15you have a considerable mass, of course, but they're not a coherent force.

02:19It's the American strategic enablers that provide the glue, that weld them together

02:24in a coherent force package.

02:26Take those Americans out, and it will be very difficult for us to operate as one.

02:31That doesn't mean I think we could not win a conventional war against Russia, but there

02:35would be a lot of improvisation, and so there would be a lot of casualties, which means

02:41it is really very urgent that we acquire those enablers ourselves.

02:45Again, military satellites, headquarters, secure communications, deep strike.

02:50We have to have military autonomy, meaning that our armed forces can operate in the end

02:55without needing a single American.

02:57But realistically speaking, how long would it take for the continent to get to that point?

03:03I would say that by 2030, we ought to have the capacity to do so, if we act fast now.

03:11And do you believe that the EU is capable of acting quickly?

03:14It has dragged its feet when it comes to certain issues.

03:17It did move quite quickly, though, when it came to COVID.

03:19When it came to Brexit, it was able to come together.

03:22Do you think that's going to happen this time?

03:25This has been such a shock, basically the United States telling us that we are no longer

03:30sure of transatlantic solidarity.

03:34And so I do feel that sense of urgency and the willingness to move ahead.

03:38In my view, the 26 going ahead with supporting Ukraine without Hungary is also a sign of

03:44that.

03:45Things have become too important for silly political games, and if Orban wants to play

03:49them, he's pushed aside.

03:51That's urgency.

03:52And what about potentially deploying troops to Ukraine?

03:56Who would do so in the event that a peace deal is agreed?

03:59Apart from France and the UK, we're not seeing many countries willing at this point to step

04:04up to that challenge.

04:07I think quite a few have already added that they would be willing to join if our guarantee

04:13to Ukraine is guaranteed in turn still by the United States through NATO.

04:17Belgian Prime Minister, for example, has said so before joining the summit.

04:22I think definitely Germany and Poland would have to join.

04:25And then you have the critical miles that would enable us to deploy troops and provide

04:31a credible security guarantee.

04:33And we heard from the French president last night talking about France's nuclear deterrent.

04:39We're hearing that EU leaders were kind of cautiously receptive to that, mostly those

04:43in Eastern Europe.

04:45How, though, would that actually work in practice?

04:48Macron talking about opening a debate about extending that nuclear umbrella to the rest

04:54of Europe.

04:56In theory, of course, France could decide to offer that nuclear guarantee to all EU

05:01member states.

05:02EU member states could do nuclear sharing, as we now do with the United States.

05:07For example, the Belgian Air Force can deploy American nuclear bombs.

05:12The Netherlands, Germany, Britain, Italy do the same.

05:17Similar arrangement, one could imagine it with France.

05:20So the weapon would remain in French hands.

05:22It would not be Europeanized, but France would give a European guarantee.

05:26It is theoretically possible, but I think completing our conventional force package,

05:32that's the more urgent thing now, while we remain under the American nuclear umbrella.

05:38That said, I am very happy that the French force, the FRAP, as an independent nuclear

05:43force, does exist.

05:44And Sven, we've heard from the Ukrainian president this evening saying that he's going to go

05:48to Riyadh next Monday for talks with U.S. officials.

05:52Now we saw, obviously, how disastrously his encounter with Donald Trump went last Friday.

05:58What do you expect to come from those talks on Monday?

06:03I try to remain hopeful, in spite of the shameful spectacle that we saw last Friday in the White

06:09House.

06:11It does seem to me that a deal is still possible, and finally Donald Trump wants to make a deal.

06:17Sadly, though, he seems to be aiming for a deal based on Putin's terms.

06:23But if now Ukraine will be there talking with the Americans, I imagine a package will be

06:28possible.

06:29There will be a minerals deal, there will be a European security guarantee, there will

06:33be European weapons for Ukraine, even post-ceasefire.

06:36And perhaps the Americans can explicitly state that Article 5 will also cover the European

06:42troops that guarantee Ukraine.

06:45That is, I think, the package that the Europeans would like to see.

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