00:00Well, for this next segment, we're going to stick to the same theme. We're going to speak to Teresa Fallon, who's the founder and director of the Center for Russia, Europe and Asia Studies in Brussels. Teresa, thank you so much for joining us today here on France 24. Before we get to the nitty gritty, I mean, what do you think, if anything, should be made of the fact that these negotiations will be held on U.S. territory instead of in a neutral location?
00:23I think it's a sign that President Putin, who's not allowed to really travel to many countries because of the international criminal court's desire to arrest him for crimes against humanity, that he's allowed in the U.S. So I think this will actually maybe help Trump because he'll feel more comfortable.
00:43We remember what happened in Helsinki, where his assistant wanted to pull the fire alarm because things were going so badly. So I think that he'll be on home territory, the U.S. president.
00:54But who knows what could come into the mix? Because, of course, the U.S. bought the territory legally from the Russians. Nevertheless, there are Russian nationalists who want it back.
01:04Back then they sold it and they only thought it was good for seals and pelts, but they didn't know that there was oil there. But obviously, it's really important for the Arctic.
01:14And that's something that many suspect that Putin is going to try to pitch to Trump at this meeting because they understand each other as they're very transactional.
01:24And as a former KGB agent, Putin really understands Trump.
01:29He's been studying him for years and he kind of knows how to press his button.
01:33So I hope that Trump will be well prepared for this meeting.
01:36But we also have seen that the Europeans have responded today, which was quite important and dramatic.
01:42So they have a counter offer. So it's even though Zelensky is not invited to this meeting, the Europeans have managed to kind of bring him into the table by issuing a counter offer.
01:53J.D. Vance is in the U.K. ostensibly on holiday, but he was in meetings with members of Germany and the U.K. and France.
02:02So I think that this is a positive development that the Europeans are able to move quickly.
02:05I want to piggyback off of what you just said about perhaps Putin's strategy and the symbolic strategy in being in the Arctic.
02:15Do you think that that possibility and Donald Trump's attendance at these talks with Vladimir Putin but not Volodymyr Zelensky suggests that his recent criticisms of the Russian president were perhaps smoke and mirrors, if not for media attention than anything else?
02:29He's gone back and forth since taking office, but ultimately he's not forced Vladimir Putin to make any concessions at all.
02:37So what does that mean in terms of his willingness to continue to support Ukraine's interests?
02:44That's a very good point. Everyone is speculating about that.
02:47And it's very difficult to understand President Trump's brain.
02:51I'm sorry, it's very complex.
02:53And he flip-flops all the time.
02:56There was a constant moving window, 40 days, 50 days, 60 days, 10 days.
03:01And I noticed that President Putin's so clever, like he has other people criticize Trump while he's sitting on a bench, for example, with the Belarusian leader.
03:10And that way Putin is making a criticism but not saying it himself.
03:14So I think Putin's wise enough to do that.
03:16He knows not to say anything too nasty to Trump, but he also had Medvedev say some nasty remarks.
03:23At least that's what some interpret it as, where Donald Trump decided to move to U.S. nuclear submarines to signal that he was unhappy with Medvedev, the former president of Russia's comments.
03:35So it's been up and down all these last days, the constant moving window.
03:40There was immediate, you have to make up your mind by Friday.
03:43President Trump actually put 25 percent increase of tariffs on India.
03:50In my view, it almost looked like he was playing hardball because it was about 50 percent tariffs then on India because India is a big purchaser of Russian energy.
03:58He has not done that to China, the second biggest purchaser of energy from Russia that goes to feed the Russian worm machine to fight in Ukraine.
04:07So he was trying to use a bit of leverage on them.
04:11Nevertheless, he didn't use enough leverage because it's only Putin at this meeting, not Zelensky.
04:17Now, Donald Trump and Putin's premises for these peace talks seem to me to be essentially non-starters and have been.
04:25I mean, there's been an inability to kind of reach each other in the middle, so to speak, for months.
04:32Why continue to hold these talks when neither side's, you know, primary demands for peace have changed?
04:38Ukraine has consistently said it refuses to give up any of its territory.
04:41Russia refuses to fully withdraw from Ukraine or put in a full-fledged ceasefire in place.
04:48So, I mean, does Donald Trump even have leverage to force either side to change their stance?
04:55Yeah, clearly he wants to meet Putin in person, I think.
04:58And you're right.
05:00Putin's position has not changed since the beginning of the war.
05:03He has a maximalist position and nothing has changed.
05:06And Ukraine, it's written in their constitution, they cannot give up any territory.
05:10So, will this meeting just largely be symbolic?
05:13We all know President Trump wants to win the International Peace Prize, excuse me, the Nobel Peace Prize.
05:21He had a small win yesterday, well, an important win between Azerbaijan and Armenia with his, you know, trademark Trump road for prosperity, this new road linking them.
05:32So, he's kind of maybe on some positive momentum.
05:35Nevertheless, in the run-up to the announcement, he was saying this isn't a breakthrough.
05:40It's taken a long time to get here to this meeting.
05:43And it almost legitimizes Putin because he hasn't really had to do anything at all to get this meeting with President Trump.
05:51There's one party that's really been very absent from any major diplomatic pushes in the past months, and that's, of course, the European Union.
06:01Aside from the announcements about the coalition of the willing, continuous kind of reaffirming of solidarity and support for Ukraine,
06:09I mean, how do you explain its absence in a more substantial diplomatic way throughout this process, especially when it comes to being included by Donald Trump?
06:18Is it that the bloc has no negotiating power or leverage at all, or is it a lack of will?
06:25Well, I'm based here in Brussels, and everyone is very disappointed, and they talk about impotence.
06:32They really feel impotent in the face of not just what's happening in Ukraine, but what's happening in the Middle East and other parts of the world.
06:38So, I think that they really feel squeezed, and I think that it's a positive sign that at least these three countries, the UK, of course, is not a member of the EU,
06:49but that the big three have tried to come together and try to at least have a voice, because Europeans are deeply frustrated by being left out on this.
06:58As a final question for you, Teresa, I mean, Russia has clearly been betting that time is on its side.
07:05These negotiations, these claims that, you know, Vladimir Putin is interested in peace talks and that Ukraine has been stalling is arguably a ploy for time.
07:14At this stage in the war, is time still, in your view, on Russia's side or on Ukraine's?
07:20Well, everyone is tired. Both sides are extremely tired, and I think a ceasefire would be wonderful if they could put that into place.
07:31Nevertheless, we've always seen Russia just rest, re-arms, and re-invades, and now we see that their military defense base has really revved up.
07:39We've seen an increase in drone activity, attacks on Kiev.
07:43So the Russians have really improved their defense base. They don't really, they're getting things from Iran and China, but nevertheless, they can produce a lot at home now.
07:53And we've seen that in the way the battlefield is being shaped in Ukraine.
07:57So it's awful. It's a horrible war of attrition. I think everyone would love to see it end.
08:03But, you know, Putin is in it to win it. He's not going to move back. He might play for time.
08:08He might think he can manipulate Trump and get what he wants and maybe offer, you know, a sweet deal over here and distract Trump.
08:17Who knows what's going to be said behind closed doors there?
08:20But I think that the Europeans really need to step up, and I think Zelensky has made that quite clear.
08:27He needs their support in all of this.
08:29Perhaps just one final follow-up for you then, Teresa. We have a little bit of time left.
08:32What do you think, then, is the most realistic conclusion to this, at least in the middle term?
08:42Right now, I think that we'll have a lot of smoke and mirrors.
08:46At least it's back on the agenda. People are talking about it more.
08:50I think Putin's just playing for time, as you noted.
08:53And unless the Ukrainians are willing to give up territory, which they're really unable to do, I don't see an end to this.
09:00Teresa Fallin, founder and director of the Center for Russia, Europe, Asia Studies in Brussels, thank you very much for joining us today.
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