00:00Well, for deeper analysis on the Netanyahu government's announcement, we're going to speak now to Yossi Meckleberg,
00:05Senior Consulting Fellow at the Middle East and North Africa Program of the Chatham House in London.
00:10Thank you so much for joining us today, Yossi.
00:13So to get started, I mean, there appears to be some confusion or perhaps more speculation as to what the ultimate goal is.
00:22Is the Israeli military's plan, in your view, to take over just Gaza City?
00:25Or do you think that this is a preview of a possible future announcement that the wider objective is to take over all of the Gaza Strip?
00:34Good evening. Thank you for having me.
00:36I think there are some deliberate confusion in the announcement.
00:42It's also in the terms of the timeline, how long it's going to take.
00:46A very arbitrary timeline was put of exactly two years since October 7, 2023.
00:55But I think it's aimed to, in a way, to confuse, in a way, to appease a lot of moving parts there,
01:03whether it's the extreme right wing within the government that we'd like to see not only taking over the place,
01:11but annexation and the expulsion of most of the Palestinians there.
01:17On the other hand, we know that the international community is adamant that that shouldn't happen.
01:22And then the United States is supporting Israel, but at the same time there is criticism of the humanitarian disaster there.
01:31So it leaves the government and Netanyahu enough room to maneuver within the next few months,
01:40and mainly to serve his own political interests.
01:43Speaking of those political interests, this decision comes despite quite a bit of domestic pressure,
01:51both on Netanyahu to act in a way that would allow a chance of survival for the remaining Israeli hostages,
01:57and we've also seen some pressure from ex-military leaders, reservists,
02:02people who say that this is not a realistic plan, it's a strategic error.
02:06So do you think that from the perspective of his own political survival that Netanyahu has more to lose or to gain by going down this pathway?
02:16We know that you're absolutely right.
02:18For many months, more than 70 percent of Israelis keep saying in poll after poll
02:23that they would like to see the return of the hostages as a store priority, including at the end of the war.
02:30You mentioned the letter by 600 former very senior security people from the IDF, Mossad and Shabak.
02:39And even the current chief of staff has huge reservation about this plan, as he expressed yesterday in the cabinet meeting,
02:48including saying that this is basically as good as giving up on the hostages, those who are still alive.
02:55But Netanyahu at this point is trying to appease the most extreme elements within his own government and consolidate debates.
03:05He's taking a huge gamble here, but he thinks that if this gamble will pay off, then he might call election and still win it.
03:13I think this is probably for Netanyahu one gamble too far with potentially disastrous consequences.
03:21In that sense, sir, I'd like to kind of get your view on how you think this is perceived by Israeli society in general.
03:29You, for example, have said before that you feel that Israel has lost its moral backbone by permitting starvation in Gaza.
03:36How do you think Israelis see the occupation of parts or the whole of Gaza?
03:41Do you think those who criticize it see it as a strategic error or as a moral error?
03:47I think both.
03:48I think, and in this case, it goes hand in hand.
03:52I think after October 7, 2023, most Israelis lost any empathy for Palestinians in Gaza.
04:01And it was enhanced by leaders that talk about all Gazan people being to blame or implicit or complicit in what happened then in the massacre of Hamas.
04:15The way that Palestinians are demonized and dehumanized and allowed to starve in Gaza, stopping humanitarian aid given by UN agencies and other international organizations.
04:30So this has become legitimizing this kind of behavior.
04:35On the other hand, strategically, in Israel, always the strategic view was that Israel shouldn't be involved in multiformed, multiformed battles or war.
04:45And at the same time, the war should be short.
04:48And here we are 22 months later, still involved with at least six, seven fronts and an army that suffers from severe fatigue.
04:58Some people serve more than 400 days over the last 22 months in reserve service.
05:06It's the conscript that there's a lot of the burden on them.
05:09Their service has been extended.
05:11And at the same time, I've never seen in my lifetime following politics a country that enjoyed sympathy and empathy from the entire international community.
05:24Two years ago, less than two years ago, all the world rallied around Israel.
05:29And now it's on the way to become a pariah state.
05:33So I think on all these levels, it's both a moral bankruptcy, but also a strategic failure.
05:40Speaking of strategic failure, sir, the plan to occupy Gaza is supposed to be until Hamas can be replaced.
05:48But following the October 7th attacks, a lot of reporting from Israeli media in particular detailed the ways in which Netanyahu kind of propped up Hamas at the expense of more viable governing factions like the Palestinian Authority.
06:03So do you think that this current Israeli government would ever accept any form of Palestinian governance?
06:10We know that Netanyahu's lifetime mission was to avert and prevent a two-state solution.
06:16And that's one of the reasons that he propped up Hamas.
06:19And obviously, Netanyahu, being Netanyahu, he never takes responsibility for anything.
06:25He blames the military, blames the other branches of the security forces.
06:30He blames those who protested against him attacking the very foundations of the democratic system.
06:38He blames the gatekeepers of the society, including the head of the prosecution.
06:43It's only him that never makes any mistake.
06:46But the reality, the box stops with him as the prime minister.
06:51He doesn't say only not Hamas.
06:53He said also, we won't let the PA to take over.
06:58So who is going to take over this small territory with 2.3 million people?
07:04That is completely devastated physically.
07:07Physically, but people that suffer tremendous trauma, many of them need urgent medical help that they can't get.
07:17And also at this stage, starving.
07:19So unless, and that's where the international community should enter into this, to stop the war, to ensure humanitarian aid is entering.
07:28And by the end of it, one could only hope there will be also within Israel some accountability.
07:33As a final question for you, Yossi, this conflict has, of course, been a part of your field of expertise for decades.
07:40Given what you know, what do you think would have been or is the best way moving forward for Israel to both guarantee its security,
07:48which is, of course, the government's stated objective, at least in the long term,
07:50and also to guarantee a right to governance and statehood for Palestinians?
07:55I think the basic premise should be that everyone in what we call mandatory Palestine or historical Palestine should have the right for security.
08:09Israels and Palestinians, everyone has security.
08:12If not everyone has security, no one has security.
08:16And this can only go not through just military and strong military and military operations and wars.
08:23It should go through a diplomatic effort to resolve all the root causes of this conflict,
08:28to ensure that there are self-determination, both Jewish state and a Palestinian state.
08:34Jerusalem is the capital of both.
08:37Solving the refugee issues, security, settlement.
08:40Unless everyone is enjoying the same, not only security, but political rights, civil rights, human rights,
08:49unfortunately, we will see more of these things.
08:53Yossi Mecklenberg of the Chatham House in London, thank you so very much for joining us today on France 24.
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