'For the first time since 1941 there is no alliance between a US government and European countries'

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00:00Now Arab leaders are gathering in Saudi Arabia today to hammer out how to collectively counter

00:05President Donald Trump's plan for U.S. control of Gaza and the expulsion of its inhabitants.

00:10Leaders in the Arab world have criticized Trump's plans to empty the Strip and create a so-called

00:16Levantine Riviera, but now they want to agree on a formulated response. And for more on this,

00:21I can bring in Scott Lucas, Professor of U.S. and International Politics at the Clinton Institute

00:27at the University College Dublin. Good morning, Scott, and thank you for joining us at this

00:31meeting in Riyadh. Is there a sense of panic among Arab leaders after Donald Trump's announcement?

00:39There's a sense of deep concern, not just amongst Arab leaders, but I think amongst

00:44almost everyone in the region, not just about Trump's proposal for ethnic cleansing of Gaza,

00:50but about the imminent end of phase one of the ceasefire agreement. Because, of course,

00:57at the end of phase one, you need to have a phase two. So while the Arab leaders are preparing for

01:03this March 4 summit, which will be about reconstruction of Gaza, while its residents

01:10remain there and are not transferred, to get that reconstruction, you've got to get agreement on a

01:16phase two in which Israel withdraws its forces from the Strip, and you get some type of Palestinian

01:24governance. Now, will that governance be by Hamas? Will it be by other Palestinian groups? Will it be

01:30a technocratic administration? All of that is very, very much up in the air, because, of course,

01:36I think the chances are slim that the Netanyahu government, under pressure from the hard right,

01:42will even agree to a phase two at this point, unless Hamas effectively says it's going to

01:49disappear, which, of course, the group will not do. Now, Trump has said that the likes of Jordan

01:55and Egypt will agree to the, quote, deal. Now, what sort of leverage can Trump exert on Arab

02:01countries, and are some a little bit more protected from leverage than others?

02:06Well, I mean, Trump, as always, has gone to the fact that he can sanction. You know,

02:10I can sanction this, I can sanction that. And certainly, you know, there is trade between Egypt

02:15and Jordan with the United States. Even more significantly, of course, would be trade between

02:21the Gulf states and the U.S., including, of course, the U.S. provision of military trade.

02:29But at this point, Trump hasn't really followed up on that threat to impose sanctions. I think what

02:35you're going to see from Trump is not going to be direct assaults on Jordan and on Egypt.

02:39I think what you're going to see is increased Trump administration support of Israel.

02:43And I think that's not only effectively giving a blank check for renewed Israeli military attacks

02:48in Gaza. I think it's going to be for expanded, not just Israeli attacks in the West Bank,

02:54but really expanded Israeli occupation in the West Bank, including an expansion of the

03:00settlements. That's the front I would be watching right now in terms of where Israel tries to take

03:05advantage of Trump's position. And just on that point, Trump's plan, obviously it's got a lot of

03:14support from Benjamin Netanyahu and far right elements in his government. But what about across

03:20the political spectrum in Israel and particularly what happens if Netanyahu's government falls,

03:26as it well might in the next year or two? Would a new government take Trump up on the offer?

03:33We're now in the key, I think, aspect of this. As important as the U.S. is and as loud as Trump is,

03:39it's this question of what has been happening in Israel domestically throughout the period since

03:45the Hamas attacks on October 7th and then Israel's mass killing. Benjamin Netanyahu is caught between

03:51the hard right ministers, the finance minister, Mr. Smotrych, who's still in government,

03:57the national security minister, Mr. Ben-Havir, who has left but is still supporting,

04:02who have said, we don't want to face it. And in fact, we want Gazans to voluntarily leave the

04:07strip and we want a military government. Netanyahu's caught between that demand and between

04:13many Israelis, including families of the hostages, who say the priority is to get the remaining 70

04:19to 75 hostages back and not to renew military attacks. Meanwhile, Netanyahu faces that prospect

04:25you've alluded to. If there is a lasting ceasefire, his political future is uncertain

04:31with elections and his legal future is uncertain with, I think, renewed impetus for the bribery

04:38trial that he is facing. Now, will Arab leaders be also concerned about a domestic backlash from

04:46their own populations if they were seen to capitulate and be viewed as selling out the

04:51people of Gaza if they did do a deal with Trump? I think that domestic factor is there. And here,

04:57I'm going to have to pull you back. The idea that Trump has a thought out proposal on ethnic

05:03cleansing is just ridiculous. This isn't a thought out proposal. It's his honest wish to make money

05:09out of Gaza backed up by a US professor who said, let's start from scratch and remove everything,

05:15including the rubble and the people. That's all you've got there. So there's no real plan

05:19that the Americans have. Arab leaders, however, have to go back when they face domestic populations

05:26and face something, I think, more significant, which is, will they go back to normalizing

05:33relations with Israel? That's where we were before October 2023. That's where we had some

05:40states who had established relations with Israel, others behind the scenes, like Saudi Arabia,

05:44who were maneuvering for closer links. That doesn't happen now. No matter how much Trump

05:51puts on pressure, no matter how much he schemes, you do not get normalization of Israel's relations

05:58with Gulf states until you get a lasting ceasefire in Gaza. That's been made clear by the Saudis.

06:03It's been made clear by other Gulf states, even if the Trump folks won't publicly accept.

06:08And with regard to Europe, where is Europe in all this? Because we've seen in the last week

06:13that probably the era of military cooperation between the United States and Europe is perhaps

06:22on its last legs. Is there a possibility that we've already seen the European countries have

06:27expressed discontent with these comments by Trump? Is there a possibility that there might begin to

06:33become a little bit of a cleavage between Europe and Washington on Israel and the Middle East itself?

06:40Well, I mean, there's already a bit of distance between some EU members and the United States

06:45over, you know, the Israeli open-ended attacks in Gaza until they were suspended because of the

06:51ceasefire. Where I am in Ireland, for example, that's one of the European countries that has

06:56come out forcefully for the two-state solution and recognition of Palestine. It has criticized

07:02Israel over the mass killings. But I think the broader issue is this, and I'm going to say this

07:08with reference to what is happening over Ukraine and Russia. For the first time since 1941,

07:14there is no alliance between a US government and European countries. The Trump administration has

07:20ended that alliance. I don't think it's going to have that much effect on the Middle East at this

07:26point, simply because European countries have got to give emergency attention to support Ukraine

07:32and of their security against Russia's three-year invasion. And while that issue is paramount,

07:38I think the Europeans are going to be on the sideline regarding Middle East issues.

07:41Thank you very much for that, Scott Lucas, Professor of US and

07:44International Politics at the Clinton Institute at University College Dublin.

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