Seeking foreign policy win ahead of inauguration, incoming administration pressures Netanyahu on deal

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00:00Well, going back to our top story, that ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas, we're going

00:05to get some more analysis on that with Jean-Luc Samane, a senior research fellow at the Middle

00:11East Institute of the National University of Singapore.

00:14Thank you very much for speaking to us on France 24.

00:20First of all, why did it take so long to reach this deal?

00:23I mean, especially if this is the same agreement that was put on the table in May last year?

00:28Well, it seems that the main game changer here was the upcoming American president,

00:37the fact that you have a new White House team, and reportedly the Trump team put a lot of

00:44pressure on Netanyahu to accept that deal.

00:48So clearly we see here, I wouldn't say a victory of the Biden administration, rather a victory

00:54of the Trump administration, which is preparing its inauguration with a first win at the level

01:02of foreign policy.

01:03What do you think then US-Israel relations will look like under Donald Trump?

01:10Well, it's unclear, to be honest, in the sense that Trump didn't really talk much about the

01:17Middle East during the presidential campaign.

01:20The only big priority he seems to have for the Middle East is to address the question

01:24of Iran, and in particular the nuclear program of Iran, which is much more advanced than

01:30when he left the White House four years ago.

01:32On that topic, there's clearly going to be a common interest from both Israel and the

01:38US.

01:39Beyond that, it's very unclear how Trump and his team wants to invest themselves, for instance,

01:45in Lebanon, where you have also a major ceasefire process at the moment, and especially here

01:52on Gaza, with regards to the reconstruction of Gaza, which is ultimately the big objective

01:58of this ceasefire.

02:00Well, Trump says he wants to rebuild, sorry, build on this deal rather to expand the Abraham

02:07Accords, which normalized relations between Israel and a number of Arab states.

02:12He's then looking to Saudi Arabia to join in on this.

02:15But is this feasible?

02:16I mean, Riyad says it wants Israel to commit to paving the way for a Palestinian state

02:21before it can consider this.

02:24It's conceivable in the sense that Saudi Arabia didn't reject the idea of normalization with

02:29Israel.

02:30It only insisted on the condition, which has always been a condition, about the process

02:37towards a Palestinian state.

02:40So if, let's say, if we assume that, for instance, we have a ceasefire in Gaza that leads to

02:46this third phase, which is supposed to be this three to five year process where you

02:50have the reconstruction of Gaza with a transfer of responsibility towards the Palestinian

02:57Authority or to any type of Palestinian body, maybe, I say maybe, Saudi Arabia would be

03:05in a position to accept a normalization agreement.

03:10I wouldn't say it's far-fetched, but definitely there's going to be a lot of challenges before

03:15Saudi Arabia admits that.

03:18What about going forward with the withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza?

03:22I mean, we're hearing from certain members of Netanyahu's cabinet that want Israel to

03:28go back into Gaza after a brief truce.

03:32What's your take on this?

03:34That's the big unknown, because that's going to be the big question to follow in the next

03:39two weeks.

03:40Basically, from the Israeli side, this is rather a hostage release deal rather than

03:46a ceasefire deal.

03:49The question is, if Netanyahu actually commits to a permanent withdrawal of all IDF forces,

03:59what does that mean for his coalition with far-right government ministers who made clear

04:04that they would leave the government?

04:06In that scenario, that could lead to the collapse of Netanyahu's coalition, and as a result,

04:13elections in Israel.

04:14It's very unclear how this will unfold.

04:19So far, it's in a sense just like we saw in Lebanon, where there was a lot of speculations

04:27about Israel removing its forces vis-à-vis Hezbollah.

04:33Here we have to wait to see in coming days if Israel demonstrates its willingness to

04:40remove its forces.

04:41But it will happen in any case gradually.

04:43I don't think we're talking about a sudden removal of those forces, and again, we have

04:49to wait for the coming two weeks to see significant change in that field.

04:55The third phase of this deal, although not particularly very vague at this stage, it's

05:00set to lay out the reconstruction of Gaza after the war, but who could we see paying

05:05for that eventually?

05:08So far, what we know is that two countries, Qatar and Egypt, would be involved, which

05:15is no surprise given their involvement in all the previous ceasefire attempts.

05:21The United Nations would also be involved.

05:23We can assume that there would be obviously a role for the United States.

05:28Beyond that, I would expect other Gulf states such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates

05:35to be involved, because they expressed several times their desire to get involved.

05:41The question is if those Arab states see Israel willing to accept the reconstruction of Gaza,

05:49and in particular to have a Palestinian entity, an institution, maybe the Palestinian Authority

05:54or something else, but something that would lead towards, let's say, Palestinian sovereignty

06:00over the Gaza Strip.

06:02And if there isn't an Israeli commitment to that, I suspect, unfortunately, that those

06:07Arab states would seize their commitment to this third phase.

06:12All right.

06:13Jean-Luc Sena, thank you very much for that analysis.

06:16We'll have to leave it there.

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