00:00This is apropos. The trip is set to mix urgent diplomacy on Gaza and Iran with huge business
00:09deals. Donald Trump is en route to Saudi Arabia for what he's describing as a historic tour of
00:15the Middle East. While the most pressing regional challenges concern countries that are not on the
00:20itinerary, the US president will be focusing his attention on three oil-rich Gulf nations that are
00:26home to existing or planned Trump-branded real estate projects, as Charlotte Lamb reports.
00:34American and Saudi flags line the streets of Riyadh ahead of President Donald Trump's visit,
00:39the first stop of a Gulf tour that will also take him to Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.
00:46His visit is drawing several Wall Street and Silicon Valley titans to the capital,
00:50with a US-Saudi investment forum announced just days ago set to take place Tuesday.
00:55On the ground, reactions were mixed awaiting the president's arrival.
01:01I'm not optimistic about this visit or its outcomes.
01:06We expect significant political and economic agreements that will have a positive impact
01:11on Riyadh and the surrounding countries.
01:15In many ways, the tour is a replay. In 2017, Trump made Saudi Arabia his first foreign trip
01:22during his inaugural term. He was welcomed with a lavish ceremony and announcements of billions of
01:28dollars in investments. The energy-rich nations have all built personal ties with the president,
01:34but this tour comes as sweeping tariffs disrupt global trade. And some economists say that Trump
01:40might need his Gulf counterparts more than they need him.
01:43The region has also invested heavily in AI infrastructure, with the goal of becoming
01:49global hubs for the technology. US Gulf relations have improved since Trump returned to office,
01:55and leaders in the Arab Gulf states are expected to be eyeing up the future of American semiconductor
02:01exports.
02:02More, we're joined now by Giorgio Caffiero, CEO of the Washington-based geopolitical risk
02:08consulting firm, Gulf State Analytics, also a professor at Georgetown University.
02:14Thanks so much for being with us on the program this evening. So let's talk about this visit then to
02:20the Middle East. What is Donald Trump's priority here? He's reportedly told advisors he wants to announce
02:25his deals worth more than $1 trillion.
02:30Yeah, great to be on your program. So I think obviously with so many crises going on in the Middle East
02:37and also other parts of the world, Trump is going to be talking to the Gulf Arab leaders about ways to wind
02:44down these conflicts. He is visiting three countries, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE, that have been
02:51important interlocutors and diplomatic bridges between different states in the region, also
02:57between the United States and Russia. So I think he's going to try to see to it that there is some
03:02progress, diplomatically speaking, when it comes to the situation in Ukraine, Red Sea security situation
03:10in post-Assad Syria, situation in Gaza and Lebanon. I'm sure he'll be talking about the American-Iranian
03:17nuclear talks that got started last month in Muscat. And at the same time, we know that what's very
03:25important to Trump's Make America Great Again agenda is obviously growing the U.S. economy. We have many
03:32economic issues here in the U.S., and I think it's important for Trump to come back from the Gulf,
03:37having secured huge investment deals with these Gulf Arab states so that he can have a real big win
03:45early on in his presidency. So really sort of the diplomatic issues, the security issues,
03:52as well as economic commercial gains. These are the main motivations that Trump has for going
03:58to the Gulf right now. And just ahead of the visit, of course, as we've been reporting, Hamas has released
04:04the Israeli-American hostage, Edan Alexander. How significant do you think it is that these talks
04:09to release this 21-year-old appear to have taken place without much, or if any rather,
04:16involvement from Israel? Trump, of course, isn't going to be visiting Israel during this trip.
04:23A great point that you make, and I think it sort of fits into the wider context whereby we have seen
04:30on numerous files, including but not limited to Gaza, the Trump administration appears to be
04:37sidelining Israel a little bit. And obviously the recent ceasefire with the Houthis was a case in
04:45point. The Trump administration's decision to begin nuclear talks with the Iranians, and also there is
04:52a possibility of the Trump administration lifting sanctions on Syria. These are all examples of the
04:58Trump administration sidelining Israel and not catering to the demands of Netanyahu.
05:05I think the Trump administration is focused on trying to wind down conflicts in the Middle East,
05:12or at least not getting the US bogged down in those conflicts. The Gulf Arab states seem to be helping the
05:18Trump administration toward that end. Meanwhile, it's very obvious that Netanyahu and the Israeli
05:25government is doing everything it can to try to get the US into a war with Iran. And so I think what we
05:31might be seeing is a shift in the US foreign policy, whereby the US is not walking away from Israel, but
05:39conducting a foreign policy that's a little more oriented toward US relationships with the Gulf Arab
05:45monarchies and less oriented around Israel.
05:48And that's really leaving Israel more isolated than ever, isn't it? Would you go as far as to say that
05:55there appears to be a rift between Trump and Netanyahu, as some media commentators have suggested?
06:02I think that seems fair to say. I think that Trump wants to make it very clear that he is in the
06:11driver's seat when it comes to US foreign policy. In various ways, he has indicated that the fact that
06:18he recognizes that there is a distinction to make between US national interests and Israel's national
06:25interests. And every country is responsible for pursuing their own national interests. When it came
06:33to the issue of engaging the Iranians on the nuclear file, Israel has determined that it's in Israel's
06:41interest for the US to not engage the Iranians diplomatically. The Trump team had a different
06:47assessment, or at least Trump and some members of his administration had a different assessment.
06:53They're choosing to move forward. And at the end of the day, Israel can't really do anything about
07:00this. If the Trump administration wants to make moves that Israel does not welcome, Israel does not
07:06have another country that it can turn to to replace the US as a top ally. I think it seems that Trump has
07:14an understanding of where the leverage exists and that the US has a leverage over Israel, not vice versa.
07:23And how focused do you think he currently is on brokering a normalization deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia?
07:34Well, this is a good question. I think it's pretty clear to everybody that after the war in Gaza, the Saudis are
07:44further away from being in any position whereby they would normalize with Israel. I don't think on
07:52this trip Saudi-Israeli normalization is on the table. The Saudis have been crystal clear about what
08:00conditions would need to change in order for Riyadh to join the Abraham Accords. The types of changes that
08:07would have to take place on Israel are ones that we simply could not imagine, especially with the current
08:13leadership in Israel. So I really do not see any other Gulf Arab state, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait,
08:21Oman, none of the GCC states that are not currently in the Abraham Accords. I don't think we'll be seeing
08:27them joining the normalization camp anytime soon. And I think the Trump administration understands that.
08:33However, I do think we can say that the Trump administration is probably going to be putting
08:39some energy into trying to cajole Syria and Lebanon into the Israeli normalization camp.
08:47Perhaps that's a topic for another discussion, but I think that's where the White House's
08:52normalization efforts are going to be directed throughout the remainder of this year,
08:57not when it comes to Saudi Arabia and Israel.
08:59And he has commented, though, before he left, he seemed confident that he would be able to
09:04convince Saudi Arabia to join the Abraham Accords. You don't think that's something that's likely
09:10to happen, as you say. None of the Arab states that normalized relations with Israel,
09:15are you surprised in any way that none of them have rode back from that at all since the start of the war in Gaza?
09:21Well, especially in the case of the UAE, I am not surprised. Now, there's no doubt that the situation
09:31in Gaza has put countries such as the UAE and the Kingdom of Bahrain in difficult positions, requiring
09:38them to strike some very delicate balancing acts. But especially when it comes to the UAE, we need to keep in
09:44mind that Abu Dhabi likes to be a trendsetter in the region and the UAE's leadership is very decisive.
09:53And I think for Abu Dhabi to abrogate the Abraham Accords would be a real blow to the image of the UAE
10:00as an influential Arab state that sets trends on a regional and global level. So it has not
10:08surprised me so much that the UAE has not removed itself from the Israeli normalization camp. But I
10:16think we can also note, though, that some of these Arab states that have normalized diplomatic relations
10:22with Israel have been speaking out quite vocally against Israel's conduct. And I think they have
10:30tried to make their engagement with the Israelis a little bit more low profile to avoid unnecessary
10:37controversy at a time in which Israel's aggression against Gaza, Syria, Lebanon has resulted in so much
10:47emotion in the Arab world and so much anger in Arab societies.
10:53And George, do you believe that this trip to the Middle East is going to result in any kind of
10:57breakthrough when it comes to the war in Gaza, Hamas releasing that Israeli-American hostage as a
11:03goodwill gesture to the administration as the militant group put it?
11:09Well, the leadership in all of the GCC countries really wants to see the Trump administration
11:15use all the leverage that it has over Israel to bring Israel and Hamas into a new ceasefire
11:23agreement. I have no doubt that when Trump is in Riyadh, Doha and Abu Dhabi, he will be having some
11:30very serious conversations with officials in those three capitals about this exact issue.
11:35And they are going to try to do everything they can to convince Trump that a ceasefire in Gaza
11:42is necessary not only for the sake of Palestinians in Gaza, but also for the sake of the region at large.
11:50If we're going to see a breakthrough in terms of some announcements of a new ceasefire in Gaza,
11:56that remains to be seen. But I can tell you that all of the Gulf Arab officials
12:01are certainly doing everything they can to try to convince Trump that this is necessary.
12:06Georgie, we'll have to leave it there for now. Thanks so much for being with us on the programme.
12:10That is Giorgio Caffiero, CEO of the geopolitical risk consulting firm, Gulf State Analytics.
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