00:00Jessica, good to hear from you as always. Jessica LaMazuri, our correspondent in New York.
00:04Let's bring in Aaron David Miller, Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
00:08and former State Department Middle East analyst and negotiator in both Republican and Democratic administrations.
00:14Great to have you on the programme this evening, Aaron.
00:17A number of things have happened during that and after as well.
00:19President Trump having a kind of doorstep moment with reporters saying,
00:23I think we got a deal in Gaza. Didn't elaborate too much, perhaps not surprisingly.
00:27What was your take, not just on the speech itself, but the kind of choreographed moment,
00:32having the speakers on the Israeli-Gaza border as well?
00:37You know, the speech was, first of all, Benjamin Netanyahu fashions himself in international statement.
00:42He prides himself in his capacity to articulate. He's been extremely effective.
00:48I remember one of my former bosses, Madeleine Albright, described him as the American Newt Gingrich.
00:53A prime minister can be very persuasive in English and in Hebrew, and he laid out his case.
00:58I don't think there was any expectations on his part that this would be received well, let alone warmly.
01:04You saw that from the walkout. A few jeers here and there.
01:08Look, the speech was fine in terms of what he wanted to accomplish to tell, quote-unquote, his version of the truth.
01:17The only thing that matters, frankly, is his capacity to persuade a constituency of one, and that is the president of the United States,
01:24who over the last almost nine months now, more than nine months, I think, has basically acquiesced in Netanyahu's both tactics and strategy in Gaza.
01:32And the real question to me is whether or not he can persuade the president, even with his 21-point plan, to give Netanyahu more time.
01:41He's repeatedly said this, that with more time, we can eliminate Hamas not just as a military organization,
01:47but make sure that it has zero influence in Gaza.
01:51It'll be disarmed. Maybe its leaders will be exiled.
01:53And then we'll be able to have a day after, and he laid out what the day after would look like,
01:57free the hostages, more humanitarian assistance, with Israel maintaining the overall security responsibility for Gaza.
02:04I think he referred to a non-Hamas, maybe Palestinian, technocratic government, joined by members of the international community.
02:16Well, which takes us on to two things.
02:18First of all, let's talk about President Trump, because if we go back 24 hours where he talks about in his speech,
02:24and remember a point that you've just made, it's as capricious as we talk about that President Trump can be
02:29and the different types of people he can be influenced by, he was sitting with President Erdogan,
02:32who was a word in the ear, the first time in six years that those two had sat down together.
02:36And we know his views against Benjamin Netanyahu and against the continuing conflict in Gaza.
02:41And President Trump told reporters he would not allow the continuation, annexation of the West Bank.
02:46And I just wonder, your point to the fact that he's had a welcome audience, Benjamin Netanyahu, with President Trump before,
02:53do you sense that's changing?
02:56You know, it's really hard to say the mercurial nature of this particular president.
03:01I mean, look at his about face, if that, in fact, what it is with respect to Vladimir Putin and Ukraine,
03:08now arguing that Ukraine can win and reclaim all of its territory, probably a fantasy.
03:13I think President Trump, like most of the presidents I worked for, is reluctant, to say the least, to create a major breach.
03:24There have been tensions between Israeli prime ministers and American presidents and secretaries of state before,
03:30Democrats and Republicans.
03:32I don't think Trump has reached the point yet where, in fact, he sees Benjamin Netanyahu as an obstacle to something that he wants.
03:39And remember, this is a president who measures success or failure, not in terms of the American national interest,
03:46but in terms of his political, financial interests, his vanities, his pet peeves and pet projects.
03:53Has he concluded that he can, in fact, get a Nobel?
03:56He talks about it constantly.
03:59And if he does conclude that, if ending the war in Gaza and building a bridge to some political horizon for Palestinians,
04:09a small state, a confederation, something, would allow Saudi Arabia to normalize and recognize Israel,
04:17then I think he'd be interested in bringing pressure on Benjamin Netanyahu.
04:22But until he persuades himself, and I don't think he's there yet, that there's something in it for him.
04:29Remember, Trump talks in terms of the me, not the we.
04:33And I think until that day comes, maybe it'll come on Monday, that he'll say enough.
04:39I think we're going to see more of the same.
04:42Aaron, can I get your brief thoughts as well on a name that's come up?
04:45And perhaps Benjamin Netanyahu was going towards this area today, a governor for Gaza, a transitional authority head,
04:51potentially not ruling himself out, Tony Blair.
04:56Yeah, I mean, look, I don't think the who, frankly, is important here.
05:01It's the what that counts.
05:03It's the what in answering the three core questions.
05:06Who or what's going to govern Gaza?
05:08Who or what is going to provide security and law and order?
05:11And who or what is to begin the tortuously complicated process of trying to repair Gaza and reconstruct it?
05:18That's what counts.
05:20And the three parties that count here, one is the prime minister of Israel.
05:25Two is a punitive Palestinian leader.
05:28And number three is Donald Trump.
05:31If Tony Blair's plan makes sense, and if two of the three parties to this triangle buy off on it,
05:40whether it involves Tony Blair or doesn't, frankly, is irrelevant.
05:45The question is, will it work?
05:46And will the leaders who are charged with implementing it, not just conceiving it, implementing it,
05:53will they put the political will and muscle behind it?
05:56Aaron, good to talk to you tonight.
05:58Aaron David Miller, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
06:02Thank you, former State Department, Middle East analyst and negotiator.
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