Predicting MLB Comeback Player of the Year: Key Insights

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00:00And so we're talking MLB awards futures.

00:03We're starting with the AL comeback player of the year.

00:05Now, a lot of times you get really good odds

00:08and you're able to really get some bank coming to you

00:11at some point in the season,

00:12almost like a tax return, if you will.

00:14Let's talk some names here.

00:15There are more than these,

00:17but these are the three that stand out.

00:18Shane McClanahan, pitcher for the Rays.

00:21I'm just, I'm all over him for a myriad of reasons.

00:23We'll get into it, Joe.

00:24Jacob deGrom, a public name.

00:26A lot of people will revisit his greatness.

00:29And Mike Trout, you want a public name?

00:31There it is.

00:32So let's start with those three names

00:33and look at the amount of traffic

00:35that those three names are bringing into the book

00:37and how we can try to navigate that, Joe.

00:40Well, Shane McClanahan likes Sandy Alcantara

00:42returning from Tommy John surgery

00:44and a little bit more removed.

00:45So Alcantara pitched the entire 2023 season,

00:48whereas McClanahan only had 21 starts.

00:50So he's got even more of a window of recovery.

00:53So I think that's clearly why he's at the top.

00:55Then there's Jacob deGrom,

00:56who did come back towards the end of last year,

00:58made a few appearances,

01:00and obviously in terms of names and star power,

01:03a pretty big one,

01:04and you're getting a four to one return on him,

01:06which is really intriguing.

01:08Texas looking for him to lead that rotation.

01:10Gone are, you know, the Max Scherzers of the world

01:12and some other names that have been

01:13in that rotation in the past.

01:15So really they need deGrom to be deGrom again.

01:18And I think maybe we're so removed from Jacob deGrom

01:21being so dominant that maybe, just maybe,

01:23it's time to look back at that investment.

01:26And then there's Mike Trout,

01:27who is obviously very tempting.

01:30And I think there's some value

01:31with the Angels offense this year.

01:33And I know that sounds like a weird thing for me to say,

01:35but if you look at the lineup, you know,

01:36they bring in Soler, right?

01:38Who's going to hit behind Trout.

01:39Trout probably earmarked hit three, maybe two.

01:41Rangifo went healthy.

01:43Again, another good player here.

01:45Chanal, Hoppe.

01:46These are all guys that could possibly take a step forward,

01:48but it's that temptation of Trout,

01:50but the realization that it doesn't matter

01:53if he moves to left field,

01:54doesn't matter if he plays a DH.

01:55You just don't know how many games

01:56you're going to get out of him.

01:57So for me, it does come to one of those pitchers.

01:59And I'm going to go with Jacob deGrom,

02:01because I think that's the story and the narrative.

02:03And remember, when we're talking about these awards,

02:07they're media awards.

02:08They're narrative driven.

02:10And for a big star that hasn't done much,

02:12who was the best pitcher in baseball

02:14for about a three-year window,

02:17and he has been basically irrelevant

02:19for about a three-year window,

02:21it's a nice story to have a comeback situation

02:24like Jacob deGrom.

02:25Now, can it sustain?

02:26Can it last?

02:27I don't know.

02:28The only thing that hangs me up with McClanahan,

02:30to be honest with you,

02:31is what does this new ballpark situation look like

02:34for Tampa Bay?

02:35Because he's not going to be

02:36in that pitcher's paradise anymore.

02:38This is going to be a different scenario,

02:39playing in that Steinbrenner field,

02:41playing outdoors, the humidity, the rain.

02:44Like there's going to be a lot of effects,

02:46you know, physically to the baseball in that place.

02:49And I just don't know how it's going to play.

02:51I think McClanahan is going to be great.

02:52I'm excited about him.

02:53It's funny to me that he is so much further in ADP

02:56ahead of Santee Alcantara.

02:57I don't quite wrap my mind around that.

02:59But at the same time, Matt,

03:01I think it's a very encouraging list.

03:04I'm going to go with deGrom though,

03:05because I think that's the biggest narrative.

03:06Where do you want to go

03:06with the American League comeback player of the year

03:08if you had to put an early wager on it?

03:11Well, while the deGrom number is near and dear to my heart

03:14and speaks to me,

03:15I think it's your Met fandom that's coming in there.

03:18And I like what you're saying about the elements.

03:20A lot of people don't think about it.

03:22And that's what I love about this show and this network

03:24is you get that higher order thinking.

03:26Who really thinks about humidity

03:27and gripping the ball and all this thing?

03:29Well, that's why this home road splits.

03:30And that's why you go and you look at those things.

03:33Now you know an information is power.

03:35For me, it's McClanahan.

03:36And to your point about the difference

03:38in the atmosphere and the environment,

03:39there's a six man rotation

03:41and then there's Fairbanks in the back end.

03:42That gives you what I call win equity.

03:44That means we can go out there

03:46and just be dominant or commanding enough for six innings.

03:50See, that's the thing in baseball now.

03:51And that's where my betting mind is going.

03:53The good teams are playing six to seven inning baseball

03:56and then turning it over to a bullpen.

03:58And that's what I'm looking for that win equity,

04:01things of that nature from a wagering standpoint.

04:03So that's why I like McClanahan's number.

04:05I saw it at plus 350, but like I said,

04:07you can cash out and just keep looking at different books.

04:09Keep looking at different apps

04:11because there's a lot out there.

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