Aaron Judge vs Cal Raleigh: American League MVP Race Heats Up

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00:00If we look at the American League, Aaron Judge is a minus 180 price.

00:03Cal Raleigh is a plus 140 price. They're both having unbelievably successful seasons right now.

00:08But as I continue to say, Aaron Judge is going to win this, unless we see Cal Raleigh hit 10

00:13home runs in the month of September, really catapult himself and try to chase down,

00:16let's just say, Barry Bonds. But I always have this same also feeling, Tom,

00:20is the simple fact that we're just waiting on Judge to get a little bit hot out here, right?

00:25Just have two home runs over three days, and that price point goes to minus 1,000 and higher.

00:30I don't see Aaron Judge losing it. Now, granted, we have a month left in the season.

00:34He absolutely could lose this. He could get injured. Cal Raleigh could hit 10 home runs

00:38in the month of September. But I just feel like we're in the holding pattern of,

00:42we know it's going to be Judge. We're just waiting to shut the door on the equation.

00:47That's really what it comes down to. And I said this right when Judge got hurt back in August,

00:52or I should say the beginning of August, or end of July, and went on the IL.

00:56You know, Cal Raleigh's going to end with more home runs. Cal Raleigh's going to end with more RBIs.

01:00But everything else across the board is always going to be in favor of Judge.

01:04Even if you just look at batting average, he's batting 320 compared to Cal Raleigh,

01:07who's batting 240. He's nearly 100 points higher compared to Cal Raleigh.

01:12Judge has a 194 WRC+. Cal Raleigh's at 157. Judge's War is at 7.7. Cal Raleigh's at 7.3.

01:18So everything else, Judge is doing better. That's just a fact. Like, yes, home runs and RBIs

01:23will be in the favor of Cal Raleigh. And positionally, he's doing something that we

01:26literally never see from a catcher. But at a certain point, if Cal Raleigh can't overdo

01:30something so dramatic, not just like three more home runs, he needs to have like 10, 12 more home runs

01:35in order to bridge that gap. That's just not going to happen.

01:38Yeah. And also, you're looking at, again, adding down the stretch in the season,

01:42both of these teams, Tom, within striking distance of winning a division. Could that tilt it?

01:46Like Cal Raleigh carries the Mariners to a division title. Aaron Judge carries the Yankees

01:50to a division title. Something to certainly watch. National League MVP. It's still going

01:54to be Shohei Otani. But I was having a little epiphany sitting in the seats at Citizens Bank

01:58Park the other day, Tom. If Schwarber hit five home runs in that game, something nobody in

02:04the sports history has ever done, I actually think he would have won the MVP on that basis alone

02:11if he just continued down the stretch and both guys were average. Because when I take a look

02:15at, how's Cal Raleigh win the MVP? Hit 73 home runs. You can't deny him that.

02:19How do you win MVP for Aaron Judge? Get the triple crown. You can't deny it. Like when you

02:23do historical things, Tom, I think you get bonus points. Like what would you have said

02:27if Schwarber hit five home runs, which that night would have gave him 50 on the spot?

02:31How do you look at his season? Like, okay, let's just say he has a good September and so

02:34does Otani. How do you keep Schwarber off when he's done something that nobody's ever done

02:38in the midst of an MVP possible run? I don't know how you do it. And this is the conversation

02:44I've had with Kevin a bunch of times. You know, we need someone in the NL to do something

02:49so dramatic that it actually brings us pause to Otani because we, Donnie, we have been

02:54100% aligned that on the Otani MVP. Like once he started pitching, the award was his and

02:59we know that. But, you know, theoretically, if Schwarber were to break Bonds' record and he

03:04has 75 home runs, you'd be like, hang on a second. No matter what Otani does, Schwarber

03:09doing this is crazy when they're batting roughly the same. He has more home runs, more

03:13rubberized. Yes, the war is never going to be in favor of Schwarber. But what Otani does,

03:18like we can't like put a gold standard on that. That's why I always said, like, I want

03:22to see someone do what Okunia did years ago and have like 40 home runs and 80 stolen bases.

03:28Something so dramatic that actually brings us pause instead of just giving it to Otani.

03:32Exactly. And that's what I'm waiting for. Because if they both have average down the

03:36stretch, it's always going to be Otani. But I just, that one historic thing that goes,

03:39oh, well, hundreds of people have done that. No, nobody, five home runs in a game and he

03:44got up against a position player and got a pitch to hit. I'm actually surprised he didn't get

03:47number five in that game on Thursday. But let's move it over to the Cy Young market, Tom.

03:51And I just want to start in the National League, which it looks like it's wrapped up with Paul

03:54Skeens. He's a minus 10,000. Answer me this. If Skeens in his next start gets injured,

03:59and I don't want him to get injured. And I think he's going to win the Cy Young.

04:01If he does, is he still the, because we've had this conversation before, but DeGrom was

04:06unhittable in the month of up to late July. He's out for the season and sort of fades right

04:10out of that MVP race, or should I say Cy Young race. How about Skeens? If he gets injured in

04:15his next start, and this is the entire month of September, is he still the Cy Young in the

04:19National League?

04:21I would have to say so. I think I would have to say so. There's, you know, at a certain point,

04:26there is a bit of narrative when it comes to some of these awards and Skeens, even over the

04:31sample size, it wouldn't be dramatically different. Like if he has 167 innings pitched,

04:36Sanchez had 169. You know, Sanchez would be obviously pushing into the 180s or low 190s

04:41if Skeens didn't pitch another inning. But at a certain point, what Skeens has done is

04:44still worthy of a Cy Young season, even if he doesn't pitch again. That's, I think it's

04:50that simple when it's all said and done.

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