00:00We are now joined by international analyst Arnold August to talk more on the ongoing
00:04election day in Uruguay.
00:05Welcome, Arnold, to From the South.
00:08It's a pleasure for me to be with you once again.
00:11It's our pleasure to have you.
00:13Arnold, Uruguay is going to the polls.
00:15They are deciding between the current ruling government coalition or if the broad front
00:20of the leftist side will return to power.
00:23What's at stake in this election?
00:26Well, firstly, the elections, I think it's important for the listeners to take into account
00:32that one aspect is different from what we are used to, for example, United States, Canada
00:38and other Western countries, and the voting in Uruguay is obligatory.
00:44People have to vote.
00:46On the other hand, another important aspect of the voting that is taking place today is
00:53on a referendum, two important articles to reform the constitution.
01:00Those, on the other hand, this vote is not obligatory.
01:04So people may vote only, for example, for the presidency and the legislature, but not
01:10vote on the constitution.
01:12So this is an important elections and there's a lot of controversy, of course, with regards
01:18to who is going to win.
01:21People are anxious from, you know, many parts of the world, including in the West and Latin
01:27America that finally the Frente Amplia or the United Front of Pepe, that it will come
01:36into power once again, and people are hopeful for that.
01:41So that is an important thing to take into account.
01:44But I think what is also making the headlines and rightly so is not so much the elections
01:50for the president as such, but also the reform of the constitution for the new pension plan.
01:58Now what happened there is very interesting and the outcome could be very significant
02:04for that country and even rebound into other countries in Latin America.
02:08The trade unions in Uruguay made a proposal to overturn the government, the conservative
02:16government's plan for the pension plan, and they are now proposing as a referendum, in
02:24the referendum, as an amendment to the constitution that the retirement age be brought down once
02:34again from 65 to 60.
02:37And secondly, very important, the actual amount that is given to the pensioners will be tied
02:46to the minimum wage.
02:47And thirdly, very important, they are going to outlaw the role of private venture funds,
02:54I guess, in this pension, which is very important.
02:57However, the controversy is this, in Uruguay, the whole status quo, the whole establishment
03:04opposes that, including the Frente Amplia, including the left-wing United Front.
03:11The only ones who seem to be in favor of it is the union and the population in the
03:16base.
03:17That is why some experts are saying this is serious.
03:22If it goes through, it will mean a debt of $1.5 billion for Uruguay, which, according
03:30to financial experts, will be a very, very heavy burden and an almost impossible task
03:39to confront.
03:40Thus, people are talking about, if people vote yes, it will be Uruguay's Brexit moment,
03:45in the sense that Uruguay will be breaking with the surrounding financial institutions
03:51because they will not be able to pay a $6.5 billion debt to assure the new pension plan.
04:00They're also reforming, they're also on the reform, as you were saying, they were voting
04:05on two other reforms.
04:06They are talking about the night raids that are being promoted by the ruling government.
04:11How can this other reform, as you were explaining the first one, how can the second impact the
04:16results of the elections?
04:18Well, I think perhaps it's less controversial.
04:22I think that perhaps there's more of a consensus on that.
04:26This came about, the nighttime raids came about, imposed by the previous government,
04:31I believe, as a result of the growing cocaine trade in Uruguay, fostered by neighboring
04:39countries, and the result of this, as happens in every country in Latin America.
04:45When you say drugs, you have violence, you have mob rule, and a lot of such civil disobedience
04:53and violence, and that is why it is now being proposed that the night raids are able to
05:03take place in order to try to stem the recurring violence that is taking place as a result
05:12of the gang violence and drug cartel activity.
05:18As you were saying at the very beginning, voting is different in Uruguay.
05:21Voting in the country is mandatory, but there is also no consular voting.
05:25People cannot vote from abroad.
05:27They have to travel to Uruguay, although in this case it's not mandatory.
05:30How can that vote from abroad impact the voting inside the country in terms of results?
05:35Well, quite frankly, I'm not too familiar with the diaspora of Uruguay outside of the
05:43country, so I really cannot tell you how that will affect the vote.
05:48Normally, from previous experience, I cannot make a blanket statement, but normally people
05:53outside a country such as Uruguay, if they are exiled as a result of right-wing policies,
06:00they would be voting in favor of a left-wing government, the United Front, and perhaps
06:06take a position with the trade union's position on the reform of the pension plan.
06:16I think it's very difficult to say how that will affect the overall election results for
06:21the presidency.
06:22I know it's very early still to be talking about results.
06:26Most polls are expecting a second round later in November between the top two contenders
06:32in this first round of voting, but if Hoover wins at the end of the presidential office,
06:37what is the main problem that they will have to tackle once they are in office for Uruguay?
06:42Would you say yes?
06:43We'll be watching the election this evening, and almost certainly, 99 percent for sure,
06:49no single candidate will have more than 50 percent, and thus there will be a runoff vote,
06:56a runoff election on November 24th, just next month.
07:01And well, you know, the question is very good.
07:05If the vote goes through to amend the Constitution to have that new pension plan with the
07:12cost of $1.5 billion, whoever wins it, they're going to have a big problem on their hands
07:18to try to deal with this problem.
07:20And this, if it passes, irrespective, if the referendum passes, irrespective of who is
07:28at the head of the government trying to deal, administer this new law, which is so expensive,
07:36irrespective of who it is, they're going to have a big job on their hands in order to
07:39try to, you know, apply the will of the people to change the referendum, change the pension
07:47plan so the situation is far better for the pensioners, but that will be their main problem.
07:54However, if the pension plan does not work, if the majority do not approve the change
08:01in the pension plan, their job will be far easier.
08:05They will be able to deal with many problems facing the society, such as inflation, et cetera.
08:12Thank you, Arnold, as always, for your inputs here in From the South.
08:16You're welcome.
08:18Thank you for having me.
08:19It was our pleasure, as always.
08:20That was Arnold August, internationalist, speaking to us here in From the South on the
08:25current general elections in Uruguay.
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