00:00Hello. During the next 10 days, many a summer school holiday will begin, and that can seemingly
00:08coincide with a change to wetter weather. Now, that's kind of true. This year, we are
00:13going to see some wetter weather, certainly through the rest of this week, especially
00:17so on Friday and Saturday. But if you're after some finer weather, well, over the next four
00:22or five days, Sunday is probably your best bet. Next week, however, well, there's a bit
00:28of uncertainty, but there are some signs of some hotter weather on the way. But it's
00:34not going to be everywhere that sees the hotter weather, only some parts of the UK. We'll
00:39have a look at that in just a moment. But first of all, let's deal with the shorter
00:43term. And yes, some wetter weather on the way. Some welcome rain across the south where
00:47it has been very dry. One area of low pressure bringing a bit of rain on Wednesday and Thursday.
00:53But this one in particular, driving in on Friday is going to provide widespread rain
00:59through Friday and into the weekend. And some of that rain could well be on the heavy side
01:04too. As I said, welcome rain across England and Wales where it's been a dry July so far,
01:08but not welcome if you're hitting the roads. As many people will be on Friday, there'll
01:13be a lot of surface water and a lot of spray around. Spell of rain moves through and then
01:17heavy thundery downpours develop through Friday afternoon with the potential for some
01:23large hail as an extra hazard on the roads too. Now, that weather system moving in on
01:28Friday, as I said, bringing widespread rain tends to ebb away, but it's still controlling
01:34things into Saturday. Saturday is basically then a day of heavy showers breaking out across
01:39the UK. But look at this for Sunday. Just a little bump in the Isobarza, a brief ridge
01:44of high pressure settles things down. But looking at the bigger picture, there's more
01:48lows to then come in as we go into the early part of next week, probably bringing some
01:52rain even by the end of Sunday into the northwest. But the overall picture for the weekend is
01:58heavy showers likely on Saturday. They'll be hit and miss. It won't rain all day, but
02:02there could be some big downpours around. No, if you're after a dry and a bright day,
02:07Sunday looks like a decent bet, certainly for a large part of the country. OK, what
02:12happens after that into next week? Well, for that, we need to take a look at the bigger
02:18picture and take a look at what's going on high up in the atmosphere and the jet stream.
02:22Now, this is the position of the jets. Nothing too strong about the jet coming across the
02:26Atlantic, driving that weather system in through the weekend. But fast forward just to 36 hours
02:33or so and the jet has shifted. And the UK is no longer on the northern side of it. But
02:38by Sunday and Monday, we're on the southern side of the jet in this ridge, this little
02:44amplification of the jet. And that means that high pressure is likely to be close to southern
02:49and eastern parts of the UK. But the jet is still driving low pressure systems between
02:54the UK and Iceland. So we're setting up this contrast into next week between the northwest
03:01and the south and the east. And the closer you are to the low pressure, the more likely
03:06you are to have outbreaks of rain. The closer you are to the high pressure, well, the more
03:10likely you are for fine, dry and sunny weather. But it's not just about the clouds and the
03:16rain. It's also about the winds. Tightly packed isobars close to that low to the northwest
03:21promise quite gusty conditions here at times, certainly through the early part of next week.
03:26Whereas further south, close to the high, the isobars further apart, the winds will
03:29be lighter. But perhaps more importantly here, the direction of those winds going around
03:35the high pressure like this and potentially therefore wafting up some warm air, maybe
03:42even some hot air coming up from Spain and France once more into next week. As I said
03:48at the start, there's a bit of uncertainty about the whole scenario as we go into next
03:53week. And the jet stream is playing a bit of a part in that. This is one of the computer
03:58scenarios for the middle of next week, the European computer model. This is the jet stream,
04:03slightly different look at it from compared to earlier. But basically, the jet stream,
04:06the strong winds, the yellows here still going up to the northwest, bringing low pressure
04:11to the northwest of the UK, high pressure of the near continent that would allow the
04:15heat to build across the south. This is the European model, but other computer models
04:19have a slightly different idea. This is the American scenario where the jet stream is
04:24in a similar position, but it has a bit more oomph about it and shifting through the UK,
04:29bringing a slightly different feel, bringing the low pressure more into the UK and shunting
04:34the high and the hot air more across Europe. So this is the scenario, if the American model
04:40is correct, looking at the temperature profile across the UK and the green, yellow colours,
04:46temperatures around or below average. But if we go back to that earlier scenario, the
04:50European computer model, if that's right, with a jet stream staying to the northwest,
04:54that could open the door to some hot air, the reds and the purples there moving up across
05:01certainly southern parts of the UK. But notice, even in this scenario, the northwest always
05:07stays with the cooler air. We'll have that big contrast between southeast where it could
05:12be hot and the northwest where it's cooler and potentially wetter. Now, this is the more
05:17likely scenario at the moment. So this does open the door to some hot weather across the
05:22south. But this, again, is just looking at one computer model. That's not always the
05:26best way to look at the forecast for the medium to long range. So what we also run is ensemble
05:33computer models where we run the same computer, but lots of different times with slightly
05:37different starting scenarios. I've shown these before. This is called a meteogram. This one's
05:42specific to Reading and it shows the timeline along the bottom, particularly focus on the
05:47red blobs. That's the likely maximum temperature in Reading as we go into next week. Now, it
05:54shows the cooling trend through the latter part of this week, but it also shows the most
05:58likely scenarios that these blobs all get above the average line here. So there's a
06:03good signal that temperatures will be rising next week across the south. But how much they
06:09rise? Well, that is the big uncertainty. And notice these blobs get really quite big by
06:14the time we get to Wednesday and Thursday next week, with some of the computer scenarios
06:19suggesting hot conditions, whereas a few of them also suggesting that temperatures are
06:24only just a bit above average. So what I'm showing you here is just that uncertainty
06:28as we go into next week about the extent of the heat. How hot will it get? And obviously,
06:34we have that uncertainty about where we're going to see that cooler air coming in. How
06:38much of the northwest will be influenced by the cooler weather and how much of the south
06:43and east will be influenced by the hot weather? So at the moment, yes, there is a likelihood
06:48that some parts of the UK will see a hot spell next week. The most likely area to see temperatures
06:55significantly above average is across the southeast. But there's a lot of uncertainty
06:59about the extent and how long it could last. It's not unusual to have this amount of uncertainty
07:06for a forecast 7, 8, 9, 10 days away. That's what this 10 day trend is all about. It's
07:11not giving details. It's just letting you know what we here at the Met Office, the experts
07:16upstairs are really focusing in for next week. And just that scenario, there is a possibility
07:21that some parts could see some hot weather next week. We'll keep up to date with the
07:26very latest details day by day. And the best way that you can keep up to date is by following
07:32us on social media.
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