00:00Hello. Welcome to the Met Office
00:02ten day trends that takes us
00:04into July.
00:05June has certainly been an
00:07interesting month.
00:08The first two thirds of it cool
00:10and wet. Spots we're about
00:12to embark on a hot spell of
00:14weather with many places seeing
00:16sunshine for the next three or
00:17four days and many of us seeing
00:19some heat. Although the
00:20distribution of that heat will
00:22vary day on day, as we'll
00:23see in a minute.
00:25How long is the hot weather
00:26going to last?
00:28Well, the short answer is not
00:29very. Actually, as we go through
00:31the weekends, temperatures will be
00:33dropping back down closer to
00:34average. And next week promises,
00:37well, actually, maybe what
00:39many of us have been hoping for.
00:40Some dry weather, some sunny
00:42spells, but without the
00:44intense heat that some
00:46of us will see over the next few
00:48days. So there's plenty to talk
00:49about in the coming 10
00:51days.
00:52Let's deal with the big picture.
00:53First of all, high pressure to the
00:55northwest of the UK, low pressure
00:57down to the southwest.
00:58It's that that's drawing up the
00:59warmer air.
01:00But as these two are squeezing
01:02together, notice quite a few
01:03isobars in the charts across the
01:05south. So, yes, we're talking
01:07about sunny weather for
01:08most and hot weather for a
01:10few as well. But we also do need to
01:12account for these strong and gusty
01:14winds across the south,
01:15particularly so the southwest
01:18during Thursday.
01:19Could start a bit misty and murky
01:20on Thursday, but the cloud moving
01:22back will stick with some in
01:24the far north and close to the
01:25east coast. But for many, it's
01:27sunshine on Thursday
01:29and temperatures jumping up.
01:30But with the winds coming in from
01:32the east, well, there'll be a big
01:34gradient in the temperatures across
01:36the UK. Parts of the east coast
01:38will really struggle, especially
01:39where it's cloudy, mid-teens
01:41at best. And it won't feel all that
01:43hot across East Anglia and the
01:44southeast, even inland, even in
01:46the sunshine.
01:47It'll actually be a bit cooler than
01:48Wednesday in some spots, only 24
01:50degrees Celsius.
01:52Now, it's in the west where
01:52temperatures will really be most
01:54noticeable through Thursday.
01:56Twenty eight, twenty nine is
01:57possible across parts of the
01:58southwest and warmer
02:01across Western Scotland and Northern
02:03Ireland. Could well be the warmest
02:04day of the year so far in this
02:06part of the country.
02:08Let's fast forward to Friday
02:10and, well, it's going to be a
02:11similar story again.
02:12Parts of the east coast will be
02:14cooler, but if anything, temperatures
02:15are a touch higher across parts of
02:17the west. Twenty nine or thirty is
02:18possible on Friday, close
02:21to the Glastonbury area.
02:22By this stage, notice the high
02:24pressure has shifted.
02:25Instead of being to the northwest,
02:27it's now moved out into
02:29the North Sea and that subtle shift
02:31is important because it allows the
02:32southerly flow to take hold.
02:35And so even more
02:37of that hot air coming up from
02:39France, Spain and in fact, North
02:41Africa is heading our way
02:43through Friday and especially
02:45into Saturday.
02:46So that's why it's hotting up
02:47through Friday.
02:48And then if we just fast forward
02:49into the weekend, the high just
02:51shifts away, the low pressure
02:53starts to build in more and we
02:54just get a subtle shift in
02:56the wind direction, particularly
02:58across parts of the west, which
02:59means the air here won't be quite
03:01as hot. The peak of the temperatures
03:03going to be across the east on
03:05Saturday, and that will be a big
03:07jump because we'll have lost that
03:08flow from the North Sea and the
03:10wind's small. Coming in from the
03:11south means temperatures could
03:13really get up over 30 degrees
03:15with the possibility of
03:16values getting into the mid 30s,
03:19probably somewhere to the north of
03:20London. A few days away.
03:22So, yes, details could vary on
03:24that. But we are expecting the peak
03:25of the heat now to be across these
03:27eastern areas on Saturday.
03:29But even here, it doesn't last
03:30because just as we run through
03:32Saturday night and Sunday, look at
03:34that heat draining away,
03:36pushing into the near continent by
03:38Sunday.
03:39We're back to the yellow and green
03:41colours. Temperatures will be a big
03:43drop for large parts
03:45of the country from Saturday into
03:46Sunday. Low pressure back in
03:48control and the winds now not
03:49coming from the south, but coming
03:50from the Atlantic, where they have
03:52been for much of June.
03:54So that's bringing that, well,
03:56cooler, maybe over-egging
03:58it a little bit less hot feel,
04:00certainly on Sunday.
04:01It means the nights will become much
04:03more comfortable as well, much less
04:05humid. So we're going to see a big
04:06change or big changes over
04:08the next few days.
04:10This image shows that quite nicely.
04:12This is where we're going to see the
04:13peak of the heat Thursday.
04:15The red colours, temperatures above
04:17average. So it's western areas
04:18seeing the heat really on Thursday
04:20and particularly so on Friday.
04:21The darker red there, well above
04:23average across the west.
04:24Notice both days that east coast
04:26actually hints of blue there,
04:27temperatures below average
04:29here.
04:30Big switch around on Saturday, the
04:32cooler air coming into the west.
04:33So it's eastern areas that see
04:35those temperatures well above
04:37average. And it's going to be a big,
04:38big jump, especially on that east
04:40coast, a big jump which then
04:42gets returned on Sunday
04:44as the cooler air spreads right
04:46across the country and temperatures
04:47more widely back closer to
04:49average. It's going to be a real
04:50roller coaster ride over the next
04:52few days.
04:54But this is, of course, the 10 day
04:55trend. So we need to look at beyond
04:57the weekend into next week.
04:58Let's start with the picture on
04:59Sunday. Low pressure is in control,
05:01so it will be quite breezy.
05:02A lot of isobars on the chart and
05:04it will be noticeably cooler.
05:06But if we just pull out, yes,
05:08low pressure bringing a few showers
05:09on Monday. But this is a big area
05:11of high pressure.
05:13And actually through next week,
05:15it looks like this will be the
05:16dominant feature.
05:18I'm going to show you one computer
05:19scenario now for next Tuesday.
05:21This is the European model.
05:22Which has the high pressure here
05:23pretty much sitting slap bang over
05:25the UK. But notice the green and
05:27the yellow colour.
05:28So although it'll be largely dry,
05:30probably fairly sunny, it's
05:32not going to be as hot.
05:34Temperatures will probably be around
05:36or a bit below average in the
05:37mornings in particular.
05:38Could be rather chilly.
05:40Fast forward to next Thursday.
05:42Again, this is just one computer
05:43scenario, but I want to show you it
05:45because it does show the two
05:47fighting elements as we go into
05:48next week. Still, mostly there's
05:50a bit of ridging in there.
05:51Mostly it's high pressure in
05:52control next Thursday.
05:54But just above my head there,
05:56that's an area of low pressure.
05:57And notice the heat isn't
05:59too far away.
06:00So it would only take a subtle
06:01shift in the position of the
06:03pressure pattern, either to bring
06:04the low pressure closer and bring
06:06us more showers or also to
06:08reinstigate the heat, especially
06:10across parts of the south.
06:11So that's the big question mark as
06:13we go into next week.
06:14A lot of places seeing a lot of
06:15fine weather next week.
06:16But we could see, as I say,
06:18maybe the heat returning across the
06:19south, but equally some wetter
06:20weather into the north and west.
06:22And that's displayed with these
06:24graphs here that show
06:26the trends through 10 days and
06:27beyond. Actually, the top two
06:29representing Oban on the west
06:31coast of Scotland, the bottom two
06:33showing Northwold just to
06:34the west of London.
06:36Now, the red blobs, that's the
06:37temperature. And you can see here
06:39that big jump we're expecting in
06:40and around eastern parts of
06:42England. Temperatures around
06:44about average.
06:45This is Wednesday, Thursday,
06:47Friday, and then that big jump for
06:48Saturday before they drop back
06:49down into the early part of next
06:51week. But there's a hint here
06:53for the second half of next week,
06:55the temperatures could start to
06:56rise as the suggestion
06:58that we could tap back into that
06:59hot air.
07:00Whereas compare that with Oban and
07:02we've got the temperatures rising
07:04over the next few days, the drop on
07:05Saturday dropping further on
07:07Sunday and probably staying closer
07:09to average into next week.
07:11But also I want to show you the
07:12difference in the rainfall, the
07:13green blobs here.
07:15And over the next 10 days
07:17or so, very little rain expected in
07:18the North Holt area.
07:20But increasingly with that low
07:21pressure closer by as we go
07:23into the middle part of next week,
07:25greater chance of seeing showers
07:27across into the Oban area.
07:28So that's really the reflections as
07:30we go into next week.
07:31At the moment, it looks like, well,
07:33it won't be as hot as the next few
07:36days, but many places will see a lot
07:37of dry and fine weather
07:39and some sunshine.
07:40The nights in particular could be on
07:42the cool side, largely dry
07:43across the south.
07:45Most likely see showers across the
07:47north and the west closer to that
07:48area of low pressure.
07:50Plenty going on then, as I said,
07:51make sure you stay up to date with
07:53the very latest.
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