00:00Welcome to the 10-day trend that takes us into summer.
00:04Yes, meteorologically and climatologically,
00:06summer starts on the 1st of June on Saturday.
00:09And this year, it could well coincide
00:11with some summer-like weather.
00:13We are expecting temperatures to rise.
00:16And for many of us, we'll see some sunshine on Saturday.
00:19Now, it is going to be warming up pretty much
00:21across all parts for the rest of this week.
00:24It will be turning sunnier for many,
00:26but not everywhere is going to see blue skies,
00:30and particularly in parts of the north and the west,
00:32there will be further outbreaks of rain
00:34over the next couple of days.
00:35And then the big question,
00:37how long is the warmer weather going to last?
00:39And the short answer is not very,
00:42because for next week, we're back to low pressure.
00:45We're back to much cooler conditions,
00:47and we're back to plenty of showers.
00:49The really interesting question meteorologically
00:51is how are we going to change from one to the other?
00:55And what's the weather going to be like
00:56as we see that transition during the weekend?
01:00More on that in a moment.
01:01Let's get into the detail of how warm
01:03we're going to see things over the next few days,
01:06because this is the setup,
01:07big area of low pressure out in the Atlantic.
01:09And it's in here where things are warming up.
01:11This is called a warm sector, quite a broad warm sector.
01:15And it's in here behind this warm front,
01:17the warmer air is pushing its way up across the country.
01:21But notice there are weather fronts just dancing
01:23and dribbling their way across parts of northern Britain.
01:27And they will always bring cloud and some outbreaks of rain.
01:29So as I said at the start,
01:31it's not turning hot and sunny everywhere.
01:33On Friday, the warmth really confined
01:35to central and eastern parts of England.
01:37And let's run through Thursday and Friday really quickly,
01:40because this shows you the contrasts,
01:42bands of cloud and rain coming into Scotland
01:45and Northern Ireland,
01:46whereas for much of England and Wales,
01:47it's dry and a big temperature contrast on Friday.
01:50If we see some sunshine across the southeast,
01:53easily into the low 20s,
01:54whereas it stays cool across the northwest,
01:58only 12 or 13 here with some outbreaks of rain.
02:01Now, Saturday is the day where we'll see
02:03the most widespread heat, if you like.
02:06But again, it is mostly across England and Wales,
02:09still across Scotland and Northern Ireland.
02:11Temperatures, yes, are rising,
02:13but nothing spectacular here,
02:15maybe 18, 19 in the northeast of Scotland.
02:18But for the bulk of England and Wales,
02:20Saturday, widespread warmer weather.
02:23We could get up to 28 or 29 across parts of the southeast.
02:28The coasts will be cooler
02:29and the coasts may stay a bit misty and murky.
02:32But inland, we're looking at 24, 25 degrees Celsius.
02:35So we're likely to see the warmest day of the year so far,
02:39probably on Friday and maybe again on Saturday.
02:43Big question is, as I said,
02:44how long is that going to last?
02:45And well, Sunday may well be the day
02:47when we start to see a change.
02:50This graphic here shows how widespread
02:52the warmth is likely to be.
02:54This is Saturday's chart.
02:55This isn't the temperatures.
02:56This is the temperatures compared to average.
02:59And you can see there, red colours
03:00for most of England and Wales.
03:02We are well above average here,
03:04not so much for Scotland and Northern Ireland.
03:06Compare that to Friday,
03:08we're just a few places a little bit above average on Friday.
03:11That's the day we'll start to see the warmth
03:13depending on the sunshine.
03:14Widespread warmth across England and Wales on Saturday.
03:18How long does it last?
03:19Well, it looks as if things are turning cooler on Sunday,
03:22but there's a lot of uncertainty
03:24about the timing of things turning colder.
03:27But you can imagine from these graphs,
03:28actually we've got a cold front swinging across the country
03:31and that's what we are expecting.
03:33On Sunday, a cold front swings through
03:35and introduces cooler air.
03:37But there is much uncertainty about the position,
03:40the timing and indeed the intensity of this cold front.
03:44It could be bringing some thunderstorms
03:47as it moves across the country.
03:48So as I said, some uncertainty.
03:50Let's rewind the clock
03:52and show you why there's a bit of uncertainty
03:54and trace this area of low pressure going back in time
03:57all the way to the eastern seaboard of the United States.
04:02As I speak, it's forming out across the eastern seaboard
04:05and there's a lot of activity in the US at the moment.
04:07Again, another day with severe thunderstorms across the US
04:11and potential tornadoes breaking out.
04:14And that kind of severe weather can then impact
04:18on things high up in the atmosphere.
04:20This is the jet stream coming out of the United States.
04:24And as I say, things really could develop
04:26over the next couple of days
04:27with that area of low pressure,
04:29depending on the intensity,
04:30depending on the number of thunderstorms we see in the US,
04:33how that then interacts with the jet stream.
04:35You can almost see the jet almost kind of splitting there
04:38with two arms to it.
04:39So it gets very complicated through Thursday
04:42and then the next few days, the jet tends to drive.
04:45And it's this little trough
04:47which then develops the low pressure,
04:48which becomes the cold front
04:50that swings across the country on Sunday.
04:52It's pretty complicated.
04:54And that's why I'm showing you this
04:56just to show there's a lot going to happen
04:58in the next few days, high up in the atmosphere,
05:01thousands of miles away across the Atlantic
05:03that will determine the position of this cold front
05:06on Sunday.
05:08What does that mean?
05:09Well, it means that Sunday is the day
05:10we're likely to see the change.
05:12We are likely to see some thunderstorms
05:14triggered by the heat and humidity,
05:16but there's big question marks
05:18about exactly where and when.
05:19So stay tuned for updates
05:21because Sunday could be a very lively day.
05:23It may be one more hot day across the East,
05:26just depends on the timing
05:28of that cold front swinging through.
05:31Beyond Sunday, well, actually the weather
05:33becomes a little bit more straightforward.
05:35It's one of those slightly counterintuitive scenarios
05:37where there's a lot of uncertainty about Sunday,
05:40but beyond Sunday, we're reasonably confident
05:42in the forecast because the jet stream
05:44becomes not standard,
05:46but back to a more typical scenario
05:49coming out of the Atlantic
05:51and taking low pressure systems
05:53just to the north.
05:54So the most likely scenario
05:55for the early part of next week
05:56is that low pressure will dominate
05:58to the northwest.
05:59And of course, with the jet slipping back
06:00further south, we will chiefly be
06:03on the cold side of the jet.
06:05So for the first half of next week,
06:07certainly it looks as if it will be
06:09on the cool side and we'll see showers
06:11or longer spells of rain.
06:13And this graph shows that quite nicely.
06:15Two graphs here.
06:16The one on the top is for Reading
06:18and the one further down
06:20to the bottom there is Edinburgh.
06:22Now, I just really want you to focus
06:23on the red blobs.
06:25That's the most likely maximum temperatures
06:27as we go through the next few days
06:29and into next week.
06:30The dates there along the bottom,
06:31this red line is the average temperature
06:34for the time of year and the red nodules
06:36suggesting the temperature spread
06:38for the next few days.
06:40So we can see here for Reading,
06:41the temperatures are expected to rise,
06:43probably peaking on Sunday
06:45before we see a drop in temperatures.
06:46And for much of next week,
06:47temperatures are expected to be below
06:50or at or below average.
06:51And the same goes for Edinburgh.
06:53You can see that trend here,
06:54the rising and the dropping
06:56of those temperatures.
06:56So the scenario is warmer weather,
06:59yes, for the next few days,
07:00peaking probably on Saturday
07:03and then turning cooler
07:04next week with showers.
07:06May turn a bit warmer, a bit drier
07:08towards the back end of next week.
07:10But I think you'll agree there's plenty
07:12to get through before we get there.
07:14The best thing for you to do is to stay
07:16tuned to the updates
07:18down at the Met Office app
07:20or follow us on social media
07:21to see just how hot you could get
07:23on Saturday and to see if there will
07:25be some big thunderstorms around
07:28on Sunday.
07:29Thanks for watching.
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