00:00Anthony Albanese, the Prime Minister, has heaped praise on Mr Biden.
00:06Now he hasn't explicitly said that it's a good thing that Joe Biden has stepped down,
00:10but you do get the sense that that's what the Prime Minister is thinking.
00:13He says that Joe Biden has made a decision that he believes, the President believes,
00:17is in the national interest.
00:18And he's also really lavished praise on Joe Biden, not just for his decision to stand
00:23aside, but also for everything he's done for the US and for the Australia-US relationship.
00:28Anthony Albanese says that AUKUS couldn't have happened without Joe Biden.
00:32He also says that President Biden's achievements in clean energy with the Inflation Reduction
00:37Act and other bits of legislation passed will stand the test of time.
00:41You really do get the sense that Anthony Albanese wants to present Joe Biden as a potentially
00:46transformational President.
00:47Let's take a listen to what the Prime Minister had to say speaking earlier today.
00:52President Biden has been a great friend of Australia and that will continue and I look
00:56forward to meeting with President Biden at the G20 and at the APEC summits that will
01:03be held later this year.
01:06President Biden deserves today, I think, to be recognised for once again not putting himself
01:14forward first, but giving his first consideration to being what he believes is in the interests
01:22of the United States of America, as he has done his whole public life.
01:28And I pay tribute to him today.
01:31And Stephen, what's the Coalition's take on this?
01:34Coalition is sounding very similar to the government on this, Joe.
01:38The opposition leader, Peter Dutton, has also praised Mr Biden, saying that he's got a substantial
01:43legacy and also, similar to the Prime Minister, saying that what he has done is what he believes
01:49is best for the nation.
01:50Let's take a listen to what Peter Dutton had to say speaking slightly earlier today.
01:54He has been somebody who has strengthened the relationship between our two countries.
02:01We're a small island nation of 25.8 million people and the agreement that we have with
02:06the United States is absolutely essential, not just from a trading perspective, but also
02:11for our security in a period that the Prime Minister rightly describes as the most precarious
02:16since the end of the Second World War.
02:19And Stephen, how can it be the case that both parties are saying the relationship will be
02:24in a good position no matter who wins in November, but in the same breath also saying there's
02:31great nervousness about a Trump presidency?
02:34Well, they're saying the first thing publicly and the second thing they're saying privately.
02:39That's the main gap, if you like, Joe.
02:41I mean, understandably, neither party wants to talk publicly about some of the nervousness
02:46around the prospect of a second Trump presidency with all of the enormous uncertainty that
02:51it brings.
02:52It benefits no one to do that, in the mind of those in Canberra.
02:56So that's why you get this constant line rolled out by both sides that no matter who wins
03:00in November, that the relationship will be on a strong footing.
03:03But the reality is that there will be much more uncertainty under Donald Trump than perhaps
03:08Kamala Harris or whoever the Democrats finally do pick to be their nominee come November.
03:14Now, there are a few things to look at here.
03:16The first question that most people go to is the question of the AUKUS agreement and
03:20the promise to sell Australian nuclear submarines in the future, as well as, of course, develop
03:25a standalone nuclear submarine in the future.
03:28There have been a lot of anxieties about whether Trump would perhaps dump that deal.
03:32Now we've got a couple of indications that that may not happen.
03:36Donald Trump has, according to Scott Morrison, told the former Prime Minister that he's a
03:39fan of AUKUS.
03:40J.D. Vance, the Republican's vice presidential nominee, has also said on the public record
03:47he thinks AUKUS is a good idea.
03:49But Donald Trump is a famously transactional and mercurial man, and there's no doubt that
03:54if he is the president next, then there will be some nervousness, at the very least in
03:58Canberra, about what might happen to that agreement.
04:01And there might be a bit of a push for Australia to pitch this really hard as an investment
04:06first in the US industrial base, rather than as a favour that America is doing to Australia,
04:12if they want to ensure that it survives.
04:15But it's not just AUKUS.
04:16It goes much more deeper than that.
04:17What will Donald Trump do to that vast array of alliances that the US maintains at the
04:23moment, particularly throughout Asia, with countries like Japan and South Korea?
04:28Will they survive a Trump presidency?
04:30How about Taiwan?
04:31Could the United States defend Taiwan if China did launch an invasion with Donald Trump in
04:37the White House?
04:38Donald Trump's made it clear he's got a measure of contempt for Taiwan, alleging that it's
04:42stolen the microchip business from the United States.
04:46He's saying they should pay for more protection.
04:48So all of these questions are really profound ones for Australia, and if the US does take
04:53a far more populist, reactionary or isolationist turn under Donald Trump, then it could have
04:58serious ramifications for Australia and for Australia's position in the broader Indo-Pacific.
05:04So yes, publicly everyone's saying no matter what happens, Australia's going to be in a
05:07good position.
05:08Yes, Australia's probably in a better position than some other countries in the face of a
05:13Trump presidency.
05:14Our position is probably slightly more assured.
05:17But if you look at the impact that a Trump presidency might have on that vast array of
05:21– a network of alliances that currently underpin stability in the region, there are
05:27many reasons for people in Canberra to be anxious, and unsurprisingly, many are.
05:32And what are you hearing about concerns over the economic implications of a Trump presidency
05:37for Australia?
05:38Yeah, well this is huge as well, Joe.
05:40Donald Trump has made it clear that he's going to start whacking tariffs on imports into
05:44America from day one.
05:46Now what are the implications for that, not just for inflation in the United States and
05:52for terms of trade, but for the global trading system as well as for Australia?
05:57Well, there is a great anxiety in Canberra that if Donald Trump gets his way and takes
06:00the US down this protectionist path, then that could have severe consequences not just
06:05for economic growth in the US, but also for the global economy, which is of course at
06:10this stage in the stage of a very weak recovery.
06:13So again, uncertainties upon uncertainties.
06:16The other one to look at, of course, is climate change.
06:18Under the Biden administration, Australia, particularly under Anthony Albanese, and the
06:23US have been largely on the same page.
06:26But of course, Donald Trump, as we know, previously pulled the US out of the Paris Agreement,
06:30has made it very clear that if he gets back in the White House, he's going to take an
06:33axe if he can, to the elements of Joe Biden's climate legacy.
06:38Now, not clear if Congress will let him do it, but it's something Australia is watching
06:41closely.
06:42At the very, very least, the US is going to pull out of global climate action.
06:47It's no longer going to be seen as a leader, it is going to be at the back of the pack.
06:50And that has real implications, not just for the bilateral relationship, for the state
06:54of climate diplomacy, but also for climate change more broadly.
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