00:00Hello, Sethu Nath, can you hear me?
00:11Yeah, tell me Shaina.
00:13Yeah, so we have KP Sethu Nath, a senior journalist and political commentator with us.
00:20Sethu, now the picture is clear in Kerala.
00:24What is remaining is only maybe a little bit difference in numbers.
00:29But the larger picture is clear.
00:31So how do you analyse this situation?
00:34Like NDA, I mean BJP made history in Kerala by opening account in Thrissur.
00:41Was this something that we all expected or how do you analyse it?
00:47See, as you have said Shaina, the biggest surprise of this election is the victory of the BJP candidate Mr. Sudesh Gopi in Thrissur.
00:58That is known as the cultural capital of Kerala.
01:02And it came as a big surprise to everyone in Kerala.
01:07Because nobody has expected this kind of a sweeping victory for Sudesh Gopi.
01:14Even some of the BJP people, although they expressed that they have believed in the possibility of Sudesh Gopi scoring a victory,
01:26even they said that it will be on a very marginal majority.
01:30But as the latest thing is stating, if the latest number is correct, he is winning by more than 40,000 votes margin.
01:39So that is a big surprise for this thing.
01:42But at the same time we cannot say that it was totally unexpected.
01:48In the sense that the BJP, especially the RSS is making a kind of a very slow and steady progress in the political discourse in Kerala.
02:00And getting more and more legitimised their politics, their version of politics was getting some kind of a legitimacy in Kerala.
02:10Yeah, it is actually a systematic growth.
02:13It is a systematic growth.
02:15And then plus the actor kind of an image, the cinema, glamour and all these things combined has facilitated this victory.
02:27And then certain peculiar, very specific local factors in Kerala, in this particular constituency is also important.
02:37One aspect which I think in the general discourse, general political discourse has been given very serious importance was that
02:47the collapse of a co-operative ban that was controlled by the left.
02:53And that has created a lot of disgruntlement against the left parties, especially the CPM,
03:01which was, I think, the CPM members were hating that Kairi Venmoor co-operative ban.
03:07And many of the depositors were not given the, I mean, left high and dry to Kairi Venmoor.
03:15This is one factor.
03:17And then secondly, they were making a kind of a very concerted effort at the grassroots level.
03:25And there is also a feeling that a section of the Christian vote has shifted to the BJP this time.
03:33And I mean, we will be able to get that particular details of that particular numbers only after getting the whole picture.
03:41So that is something which has happened.
03:44But of course, in Trivandrum, in Trivandrum, Shashi Thiru is able to get back his lead.
03:52So there is a kind of, for all those progressive and the secular political people,
03:59there is a kind of a relief that at least in Trivandrum, the BJP was not able to make it.
04:09Yeah, but Sethu, one thing that we have to see, Suresh Gopi contested in 2019 and he lost.
04:16But he had been there in the constituency since 2019, very religiously.
04:22He had been working among the people.
04:24We have to see this factor.
04:27Yeah, definitely, definitely.
04:29Because Suresh Gopi in 2019, he came very late.
04:33He was, I mean, he was almost at the last minute before filing the nomination.
04:38He came and he appeared as a candidate.
04:41But still he was able to corner something like nearly 29% of the vote.
04:47That itself was a very kind of an eye-opening kind of a thing for a constituency like Trichur.
04:52And as you said that since then, he has been focusing on Trichur for the last five years.
04:59And he was, what do you say, he has made himself a Trichur person in that sense of the term.
05:07That has also worked a long way.
05:10And then, of course, he was able to bring, remember that Modi has, Prime Minister Modi has
05:16begun his campaign in Trichur with a big roadshow long before the announcement of election.
05:22And then making, I mean, appearing for the wedding of Suresh Gopi's daughter.
05:29And all these things has created a kind of an aura for Suresh Gopi.
05:35And then, of course, his campaign that he will be a union minister if he is elected.
05:41See, all these factors has contributed to his victory.
05:45But mainly the thing is that the BJP brand of politics is making an electoral breakthrough
05:51in a parliamentary constituency.
05:53That is something all the secular forces in Kerala has to take into account in a very serious manner.
06:01Yeah.
06:02I mean, in 2019, if you take the constituency-wise data, we can see that BJP had come in the
06:09second place in around seven constituencies.
06:13That we have to see.
06:15So this is actually a gradual growth.
06:18And when we come to Congress, have you expected this kind of a sweeping victory for UDF in Kerala?
06:30What do you think about it?
06:32Frankly speaking, I haven't expected it.
06:35And I was hoping that the left is going to, especially the LDF, is going to make a kind
06:40of a credible performance compared with 2019.
06:45And especially I was hoping that the kind of, the LDF was mainly focusing on the right-wing
06:57threat posed by the BJP at the All India level.
07:01And LDF was mainly, their campaign main focus was that they are the only credible force
07:08to counter the BJP.
07:09Alternative.
07:10Alternative.
07:11But I think that hasn't gone very well with the people in Kerala.
07:18And we have to think about it, I mean, only after the details of the poll results coming.
07:26But the initial impression we get is that, you know, LDF has got a kind of a very, very
07:34severe beating in most of the constituencies because almost all the candidates are winning
07:40by more than a 50,000 margin, except in one or two places.
07:45And especially in places like Kannur, in Kannur Parliament constituency and where some of
07:52the assembly constituencies are considered as the citadels of the CPM, like Tharmadam
07:57and Muttannur, where all the Congress candidates have supposedly gained the lead.
08:04So that means that there is a kind of an anti-CPM wave in Kerala in this election.
08:15Yeah, what are the lessons that the left has to learn from this election?
08:23I believe that one of the main thing about this particular election is a kind of a, what
08:31do you call, an authoritarian political style of the Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan.
08:36That is one of the main themes highlighted by the Congress led UDF in this election.
08:43Kerala is Pinarayi, Pinarayi Vijayan is the only leader and that is the kind of a thing.
08:49And I think that this is one of the main lessons for CPM to introspect, whether that impression
08:56is correct or not.
08:57I mean, there is an impression like that, that has to be seriously taken.
09:00And then secondly, there is also this allegations of corruption and nepotism that too also linked
09:08with the Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan and his family members.
09:12And then, of course, the selection of candidates of the CPM.
09:17Most of the candidates of the CPM were above 70 years and that was a kind of a factor which
09:25was highlighted by the opposition.
09:27Compared with that, the UDF candidates were younger with that.
09:33That is true.
09:34But there is one thing, the candidates of LDO.
09:37There are many who are very popular in Kerala.
09:40Like for example, even though they are aged, like for example, Dr. Thomas Isaac and also
09:46KK Shailaja, but they all lost.
09:49Yeah, they all lost and especially a person like Shailaja teacher is lost by a margin
09:55of more than a lakh votes.
09:58And so that is why I'm saying that there is a kind of a complete anti-left and anti-left
10:08means anti-CPM.
10:10You mean a strong anti-incumbency factor.
10:14Yeah, anti-incumbency coupled with anti-Pinarayi.
10:19Yeah, yeah.
10:22And secondly, there is an impression that the present government, the present state
10:28government up to this thing is not working as efficiently as the previous LDF government
10:36in terms of there is a lot of, especially in terms of handling the economic issues,
10:42the failure in paying up the welfare pensions and so many of these things, the administrative
10:49lapses and the kind of administrative, what do you call inertia or whatever it is, that
10:55is also one strong factor contributing to the anti-incumbency against the government.
11:05Okay.
11:06Thank you for joining with us.
11:07Thank you.
11:08Okay.
11:09Thank you.
11:10Thank you for giving me an opportunity.
11:11Thank you.
11:12Thank you very much.
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