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00:00 [MUSIC]
00:02 A noon kickoff in the Big Ten.
00:05 It's Penn State, it's Illinois.
00:06 Handicap this game at minus 14 and a half across the board here at the FanDuel Sportsbook,
00:11 and a total of 48 and a half.
00:13 If we're starting with this game here, what can we anticipate out of both sides here?
00:18 Because from my perspective, Penn State is almost like that forgotten team of the Big Ten.
00:22 Oh yeah, it's Michigan. Oh yeah, it's Ohio State.
00:25 But Penn State has legitimate town and playoff aspirations,
00:29 which only can continue, Ben, if they win games like going on the road to Champaign.
00:34 And unlike those other two Big Ten foes, DRS,
00:37 Penn State is one of just 12 teams in the country
00:41 to be booked as a favorite in every one of their games so far this year.
00:45 That's twice. Notre Dame has done it three times to cover as the favorite.
00:50 It's a big spread. It's north of two touchdowns,
00:53 14 and a half in favor of the Nittany Lions,
00:57 with a relatively small total than DRS in comparison, 48 and a half.
01:03 Donnie, last year, Illinois was the best scoring defense in all of college football,
01:07 allowing just 12.3 points per game.
01:10 But they lost so much talent from the back end of that defense.
01:14 Sydney Brown, Quan Martin as their safeties,
01:17 and then Devin Witherspoon, who was the fifth overall pick,
01:20 one of the best cornerbacks in all of CFB a year ago,
01:24 obviously now playing for the Seahawks in the National Football League.
01:27 They also lost their defensive coordinator, Ryan Walters,
01:31 who is the head coach currently at Purdue.
01:34 And we have seen that regression for Illinois, Donnie,
01:37 allowing a ton of points in each of their opening two matchups.
01:42 The Illini surviving against Toledo,
01:44 courtesy of a game-winning field goal nearly as time expired in the opener,
01:49 30 to 28, becoming nowhere close to covering.
01:52 And Toledo's team total was 17 and a half, the Rockets flying over that.
01:56 And last week, DRS, if you look at the final score against Kansas,
02:00 it might be a little bit closer than you expect,
02:03 but the Jayhawks were in control of that football game
02:06 before Illinois racked up a couple of touchdowns late to make it a little bit more interesting.
02:11 But again, Kansas was able to take advantage
02:14 and exploit some deficiencies defensively for the Illini.
02:19 I look at this game in two ways, DRS.
02:21 Penn State laying 14 and a half is a little bit too much for me.
02:25 So I'm going to look team total for Illinois.
02:27 The Nittany Lions, I think, are by far the superior defense in this matchup,
02:32 maybe keeping the Illini under that number.
02:35 Or you look at Penn State's team total, 30 and a half,
02:39 if Illinois can take advantage of Penn State's defense on the other side.
02:44 The Nittany Lions have been great offensively this year.
02:46 It's Drew Allers' show now, one of the highest QBRs in all of the Big Ten.
02:52 And I expect Katron Allen, a rushing yards prop of 63 and a half, to go over that number.
02:57 He's actually been the best back this year in front of Nicholas Singleton,
03:01 but a two-headed monster there for Penn State.
03:04 And Donnie, before we move on, let's remark on history in this series matchup.
03:09 The last time we ever saw Penn State and Illinois in a football game was October of 2021.
03:16 In-state college, Pennsylvania, inside Happy Valley.
03:19 A nine-over time game between Penn State and Illinois.
03:24 The longest ever FBS game in the history of college football.
03:28 20-18, Illinois pulled off the upset as a 24 and a half point underdog.
03:34 DRS, I would be remiss if I did not remark on history
03:37 the last time we saw these two Big Ten foes face off.
03:40 [MUSIC]