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Stay informed with the latest weather forecast video, covering rain patterns, temperature outlooks, and severe weather warnings. Updated every few days with expert analysis, from Weather Scientist Alex Dunne.
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00:03Hello Australia, it is Sunday the 15th of November and this is your weather update for the week ahead.
00:07Let's start out with the current warnings issued today on Sunday.
00:10We have sheep graziers warnings here in the pink along the southeast.
00:13Down in Tasmania we have frost warnings here in the purple and a general bushwalker warning.
00:16Across the southern coast we have multiple parts seeing severe wind warnings along the coastal areas and these continue into
00:23Monday.
00:23Up in Sydney or northern Sydney areas we have severe thunderstorm cell warnings and then across Queensland we have general
00:31and minor flood warnings available.
00:32I expect that we'll see a lot of those warnings continue over the next day or two.
00:36We also have in the north, if I just travel ahead to hear this layout, we still have heatwave warnings
00:41especially in the northern tip of Queensland that continue to be issued.
00:45So it's something to note.
00:46Let's have a look at the rain story this week.
00:49There's quite a bit of rain on the way from many parts of Australia, seeing anywhere between 25 and 50
00:54mils if you're in any of these areas with the yellow.
00:56However, there are some notable days of intense rainfall that we'll see in our day by day breakdown.
01:01All right, let's start with our Monday weather.
01:04And what I'm going to do first is set the picture for the weather systems that we're seeing because there's
01:08one of them that will continue to really dominate the story for this week.
01:12Okay, this is the Monday map. We're looking here at daily potential rainfall and also mean sea level pressure in
01:18those lines.
01:19This little blobby here in the lines is a low pressure system.
01:23This low pressure system is driving the intense rainfall in the central coast area, right?
01:2825 to 50 mils is the max sort of possible that we're going to see on Monday.
01:34Then this arcs around as a trough down into here.
01:38This is our next little low pressure system in WA.
01:40And just ahead of that low pressure is where a lot of that rain is centralized as we arc through
01:44this trough region.
01:45We have a high in the Bight bringing relatively fair weather to the southeast, which is why we have those
01:49sheep crazy warnings in the morning because it's quite cool down here.
01:52Now, this low pressure system is what's going to develop into a nice little mid-latitude cyclone or a low
01:57pressure system, whatever you call it, and sweep across the country bringing a lot of rain.
02:00So let's go through that.
02:01Tuesday, similar signature, less intense in the east coast, more intense in southern WA.
02:06Wednesday, we really see that intense rainfall again in the same areas of southern WA.
02:11So that's a lot of days of accumulated rainfall there, possible 25 to 50 mils if you're on the eastern
02:16side of this cyclone system.
02:18All right.
02:19It starts to now move across into the Bight over South Australia, where most parts will see anywhere between 2
02:23and 10 mils.
02:25If we go ahead into Friday, it starts to develop and intensify over those coastal ranges.
02:29Again, another intense possible rainfall day, 25 to 50 mils in northern Victoria, as well as northern parts of New
02:36South Wales.
02:36But that travels as sort of a trough all the way up into Darwin.
02:40So that's that feed of tropical moisture.
02:42It's why it's so intense.
02:44And then we've got that mid-latitude cyclone driving the weather down south.
02:48OK, moving across now into Saturday.
02:50You can see that the rain has started to move off into the Tasman, more of a shower on that
02:55Saturday.
02:55But there's sort of a next system moving through, which on Sunday sees a front potential sort of action, mainly
03:02in Victoria and southern New South Wales, dry across the rest of the continent and then sort of light to
03:07moderate rainfalls up in the north end.
03:08So that's the rainfall story that we're seeing this week.
03:11What is this accompanied by?
03:12All right. So looking here at wind gusts, this is just an hourly wind gust potential.
03:16I've just chosen Wednesday because it's one of those more intense days.
03:19You can see the cyclone structure here.
03:21And what I want to say is that this structure is bringing some moderate to very strong wind gusts, depending
03:26on where you are, especially in those coastal areas, as that is not that land surface to sort of calm
03:31it down.
03:31So definitely seeing possibly some marine wind warnings, potentially like hazardous, dangerous surf warnings as that system moves through.
03:39All right. What about temperature?
03:42This is just the Friday temperature.
03:44The temperature story is it's pretty hot in the north for most of the week, continues there.
03:49Down in the south parts, the start of the week is colder and it warms as it progresses.
03:54That little cyclone is bringing in a lot of humidity with it.
03:58So expect that sort of sticky warmth.
04:00Now, what about storms?
04:03Basically, what I want to tell you is that when we have days of intense rainfall, there is likely going
04:08to be storms.
04:09That's the time of year that we're in at the moment, particularly where I saw some intense storms.
04:15Lesser on this Saturday one, more in sort of the inter areas that could be sort of intense storms.
04:20But definitely at the start, the top of the week, if we look at this Monday, this is all associated
04:26with some pretty strong storm thunderstorm systems,
04:28as well as up in the north and the central areas.
04:30So basically, if you saw any days where there was some intense rainfall in your area, then there's the risk
04:34of storms associated with that.
04:36All right. That is the weather forecast this week.
04:38Let's get into some of our climate drivers as an update.
04:41All right. Checking in with our long range forecast now.
04:44First off, I want to show you this chance of exceeding above the median for the month of December.
04:48Now, you know that I'm not the biggest fan of how this is shown.
04:50However, what I want to highlight is actually something from this week's forecast that we saw, which was again, we're
04:56in November.
04:56This week's forecast does not contribute to this, but it's a good indication of the patterns that we might see
05:01in December.
05:02Kind of how this looks that we actually do have a lot of rainfall in these sort of central regions.
05:07But this week, what really stood out to me is that there was almost no rainfall along this sort of
05:13northern half of WA's coast.
05:16Now, that's quite different to the rainfall that we're receiving in Darwin this week, which was quite a bit of
05:20rainfall, but almost no rainfall along here, which is what that, you know, chance of exceeding the median could be
05:26quite low, could be no rainfall for that area.
05:28Whereas Tasmania, which is also unlikely to exceed the median, will still likely get rainfall, but just not above their
05:36average rainfall.
05:37So I just think that that's a really good example of what we've seen this week that could kind of
05:41be a more similar signature for what we're seeing for that long range forecast for December.
05:43Let's look at the first three months, which is December, January, February, our first look at the summer forecast.
05:51All right. Low chance of exceeding the median rainfall across much of northern Australia.
05:57Now, what this means to me is that maybe we should be looking into some of our monsoonal indicators, seeing
06:03how they're playing out in the forecasts.
06:04And then also not a very high chance of exceeding the median rainfall if you're in Tasmania or the southern
06:10parts of Victoria.
06:12Otherwise, apart from this sort of darker blob, sort of northern New South Wales and southern Queensland, it looks like
06:18there's a 50-50 chance of whether you'll get above or below the median rainfall across most of the country.
06:26That's what that means. There's a 50-50 chance of getting above or below.
06:31Not that you will get the median rainfall.
06:33I just feel like I've got to make myself clear on that.
06:36All right. Let's check in with our climate drivers now.
06:39Let's look at ENSO.
06:41All right.
06:42The El Nino Southern Oscillation.
06:44Again, apart from this Australian model, it looks like most models have come to its relative peak and is starting
06:50to decrease.
06:51Now, we know that the intensity of El Nino is not associated with its impact on weather.
06:57So just because it's hit its peak doesn't mean that this is the peak or the most intense weather that
07:02we're going to see from this El Nino system.
07:04It just means it's the peak of the sea surface temperature anomaly boxes that are calculated for the El Nino
07:10index.
07:12So that's what that means.
07:13But it does look like it's dropping and sort of by wintertime next year, we'll be back into neutral, which
07:19is the typical cycle of El Nino.
07:21They tend to get sort of, we tend to go into a positive El Nino sort of towards the end
07:27of winter, which is what we did here.
07:28We tend to reach the peak of it in our austral sort of summer, which is what we're doing.
07:32And then we tend to come out of it next winter.
07:33So that's a very, very typical cycle for El Ninos.
07:36Let's have a look at the Southern Oscillation Index, which is usually a good indicator of El Nino's impact on
07:41Australia.
07:42And as you can see, whilst we hit this sort of very low bottom in June, July, which actually was
07:47quite a dry time,
07:48we're now back more towards this sort of more neutral band.
07:51Definitely still in the negatives though.
07:53All right, let's look at the Southern Annular Mode in that troughs and lows, which makes sense.
08:00We saw that very beautiful trough arc across Australia driving a lot of the rain this week.
08:05And then finally our MJO.
08:06All right, in this model spin, I always have to look up close, sorry.
08:11In this model spin, the 11th of November here is drier, which was when this model was issued, which was
08:17a couple of days ago.
08:18It's heading out of that into slightly wet, relatively neutral conditions in the back there.
08:22So nothing that I'm seeing very decisive here.
08:25This gray line is where we were before.
08:27So this is saying that we were like last week drier, heading into a more neutral phase there.
08:32So nothing really too concrete out of the MJO either.
08:36All right.
08:36That is it, I suppose, for this week.
08:38Do stay safe with all that severe weather coming up.
08:41Check in with your weather forecast.
08:43Remember, a lot of that severe rain is likely to be associated with severe thunderstorms as well.
08:48So yeah, definitely something to keep your eye out on this week.
08:51All right.
08:51Stay safe.
08:52Have a great week.
08:52We'll see you next time.
08:53Bye.