00:03Hello southeastern Australia. It is Sunday the 15th of November and this is your weather update
00:06for the week ahead. There is some yeah severe weather on the way this week so it's definitely
00:11a good one to tune into. All right looking at the rainfall potential totals you can see some
00:16localized areas could receive up to 100 mils this week. Now that's rather unlikely most areas are
00:21going to see between sort of 25 and 75 mils if you're in this sort of central region or along
00:25the central coast. That is still a lot of rain. Associated with that is also strong winds,
00:31strong marine wind warnings so yeah there's intensity on the way. Let's start out with our
00:35current weather warnings. Along in the yellow here across pretty much most of Tasmania we're seeing
00:40strong marine wind warnings. Within Victoria and South Australia these these pink bits are sheet
00:46graziers warnings. I expect these to continue into the start of the week at least Monday and Tuesday
00:51maybe Wednesday we'll see how that develops. Along the west coast of Tasmania we have a bushwalkers
00:56warning. Along the central areas we have a frost warning as well so it's very very very cold
01:02at the start of this week especially compared to some of the weather we were getting a few days ago.
01:06Along the northern coastal parts of New South Wales we have a cell-based thunderstorm warning which
01:12I expect to continue into tomorrow as there's more thunderstormy weather on the way. And then across
01:18southern Queensland we have minor flood warnings to be issued. Again I expect more flood warnings as
01:24more rain is on the way. So let's get into this day-by-day rain story. Okay Monday there are
01:28two
01:29systems driving some different weather across the southeast. The first is this low pressure system
01:34off the coast here. This has a trough that extends up into the tropics delivering that tropical moisture
01:39feed so why it's so wet. This can see 25 to 50 mils of rain across large areas of the
01:45northern New South
01:46Wales southern Queensland coast. So that's quite intense rain with thunderstorms associated with
01:51that. That extends maybe lighter showers down here in southern New South Wales and very far eastern
01:56Victoria. But if you are in Victoria, South Australia, and Tasmania the weather on Monday
02:01is largely dominated by this high pressure system sitting in. This is why we're getting those sheet
02:05grazies warnings and those frost warnings in the mornings because it's relatively clear still night so
02:10we're cooling down in the morning. If we have a look here this is I think this is the Monday
02:16or
02:16Tuesday the models playing silly buggers with me on the temperature and wind fields. But anyway one of
02:21those mornings it's zero to five degrees across large parts of Victoria, Tasmania and little bits
02:25of South Australia as well. So really really cool weather at the start of the week. It does warm up
02:29as
02:30the week progresses and some of that rain brings a bit of humidity with it. All right back to rain
02:35we're moving across on Tuesday. That high pressure system again is dominating most of the southern
02:39parts of the area. This little low has moved off into the Tasman Sea and that is mainly meaning that
02:46the severity of the rainfall across these northern areas has reduced. So Tuesday similar to Monday but
02:52a lot less severe. Okay we've dried out across most of the southeast on Wednesday but as you can see
02:58there's our next system that's really going to drive a lot of the severe rainfall as the week
03:03progresses. It's a little mid-latitude cyclone also known as a low pressure system. That hits South
03:07Australia on Thursday seeing anywhere between 2 and 15 mils across most of the state. With this
03:14is also very strong winds. Here we're looking at the wind gusts on Friday I think Thursday or Friday
03:20whatever it is and you can see that the marine wind warnings are going to be issued 40 to 63
03:24kilometer
03:25hour gusts and that extends quite quite inwards into the continent's landmass. A little bit of rain if
03:32you're on the east coast of Tasmania and then we're starting to get this sort of central rainfall from
03:36this tropical moisture feed in New South Wales 15 to 25 mils on that Thursday. Okay Friday. This is
03:42the most severe rainfall day. Areas of northern Victoria and northern New South Wales 25 to 50 mils.
03:49Along that stretch 15 to 25 mils available and as we branch out anywhere between 2 and 15 mils. So
03:55a lot of intense rainfall on that day. South Australia has mostly dried up. Tasmania not severe
04:03rainfall but definitely moderate rainfall 10 to 15 mils available if you're in the east coast there.
04:08The northern coastal areas so northern New South Wales southern Queensland are dry on that Friday
04:13but that system moves across. It decreases in severity for the Saturday but we're still going to see
04:19mild to moderate rainfall across Tasmania, eastern Victoria, most of New South Wales. Sunday this is
04:27actually the next system. There's a low pressure system down here in the Southern Ocean. We've got
04:31a front that possibly is going to extend up from that. Again we're looking seven days ahead which is
04:35why it doesn't look quite as clear or structured but that could be delivering some moderate to strong
04:39rainfall in Victoria again. So yeah lots of rainfall there on the way as well as southern New South Wales
04:45and across Tasmania. Tasmania this actually looks like the strongest possible rain day 15 to 25 mils if
04:50you're in the northwest coast. So that is the story there. In terms of the temperatures as I said it
04:56will
04:56warm up a bit as the week goes on so not as cold as the start of the week. Okay
05:02good luck, please do be
05:04safe, have a good week and we will see you next time. Bye!
