00:00And Dr. Vail Awad is a senior journalist and West Asia expert.
00:04He is joining me shortly.
00:06Alan Lichman is political analyst and also a distinguished professor of history at the American University.
00:14Before I bring in the two gentlemen, let me just put this story in context for you, the viewers.
00:19Last night on this show, we broke the story that J.D. Wance had said
00:23that it is the Iran war which has cost them this bad result, the debacle in these elections.
00:33So how is Iran viewing it?
00:35Let me bring in Dr. Vail Awad.
00:37Dr. Awad, how is Tehran viewing the developments?
00:40It's an acceptance that America entered an unpopular war and this is a war which, like Iran,
00:49many in America also feel was imposed on Iran and Iranians.
00:53Well, absolutely.
00:55I believe the Iranians are very much understanding the current situation of the United States
01:01and they said that there should be an end to this war.
01:03In fact, even there are some jokes in the street of Tehran that the regime change in Iran
01:08landed in the regime change in the United States.
01:11So there could be some sort of a jubilation in the street.
01:14However, everybody in the street of Tehran is apprehensive about the outcome of this.
01:19Will Trump go for another round of war with Netanyahu or will he come back for the dialogue?
01:25And I believe the dialogue is already taking place in Doha and there could be a possibility
01:30of breaking through for a political triumph exit for Trump.
01:34At least he will not be defeated twice, internally and externally.
01:37But Dr. Awad, is there a sense that an anxious and an angry Donald Trump would not really course correct,
01:45he would double down, that he will be going all out perhaps against Iran?
01:50He got no support when he wanted troops on ground, the boots on ground.
01:55And that, had he done that, that's what his sense is, then it would have been a different outcome.
02:02Well, I believe now the Democrats have control on both the houses.
02:06He will be trimmed his wings and he will not go and all out.
02:10But he is a bully after all.
02:11He can, you know, violate even the American constitution.
02:14That's why everybody said you violated the American constitution, you caused the loss of the Republican Party.
02:20But I believe there will be lots of scrutiny from the administration now in the United States
02:25where he will be checked, I think twice before he go for a full-fledged war.
02:30But as I said, he is also, does not like defeat, you know.
02:34He is a type of a person who wanted to win.
02:38So maybe he can put extra pressure, Maria, on the issues of going for a full-fledged war
02:45if there is no movement on the political solution with Iran.
02:49However, there are talks, in fact, from inside what we are getting from Washington.
02:53There could be continuous of the American siege and the blockage of Iran and sanction.
02:59That could be the only way out for him to continue with the next two years.
03:03Alan, one thing is clear that among the reasons for this dismal performance of the Republicans
03:11in the midterm has been Iran war.
03:15Of course, the manifestations have been of a different kind, rising fuel prices,
03:22concerns around mortgage and others.
03:25Are you sensing that Donald Trump, when he is pushed against the wall, he usually reacts?
03:32Is there a sense among the Americans also that he will be going all out this time against Iran
03:39rather than, you know, doing some kind of rethink?
03:42Because every policy of Donald Trump now will be under scrutiny.
03:48Yes.
03:49This attempt to blame the midterm loss on the Iran war is a lot of bunk.
03:55They are trying to make excuses to make Pete Hegseth, the Secretary of Defense,
04:02not Donald Trump, the scapegoat.
04:05Moreover, they're dealing with the Iran war as if it was something that happened to them
04:10rather than something that Donald Trump chose as a war of choice.
04:15Moreover, Donald Trump's approval ratings were collapsing.
04:19So, Alan, you have made an interesting observation before you go ahead.
04:23A word.
04:23Are you saying that Donald Trump will make Pete Hegseth a fall guy?
04:29Absolutely.
04:29He'll put the entire blame on Pete Hegseth, that it was his call and not President Trump's.
04:36You know, Donald Trump has a history of throwing people under the bus to protect his own reputation
04:45and his own standing.
04:47I predict that's exactly what's going to happen here, although it's all a pile of nonsense.
04:54Donald Trump's approval ratings were cratering before the Iran war.
04:59Inflation, the economy, the tariffs were huge problems for America before the Iran war.
05:07Democracy, remarkably, and I've never seen this before, and I'm 79,
05:12has powered up almost equal to inflation and the economy as a critical issue.
05:19Donald Trump's threat to democracy was not tied to the Iran war, but to his actions here at home.
05:28So, there's a double fallacy here, that the Iran war caused the debacle.
05:33It did not, and that Pete Hegseth is responsible, as miserable as his leadership is.
05:39As Harrod Schumann once said, of the presidency, the buck stops here.
05:44It doesn't stop somewhere else.
05:46So, the buck stops clearly with Donald J. Trump, but like him, as you said, that you know him
05:53and you understand the man and the ways in which he functions, he's going to put the entire blame
06:01on Pete Hegseth.
06:02If there is a scrutiny, an examination by the Senate, then it will be Pete Hegseth who will be told
06:11to provide
06:11evidence as to what kind of security threat was Iran at that particular point when the war started.
06:19That is exactly right, and it won't work.
06:24The American people won't be fooled.
06:27Yes, Pete Hegseth is perhaps the most incompetent, the most evil secretary of defense we've ever had,
06:34who has no strategic sense whatsoever, and who believes that death and destruction somehow
06:41justifies a war and creates victory when history shows it decidedly does not.
06:49But there are too many burdens on this administration for them to escape the overwhelming negative burden
06:58of Donald Trump's governance by going after Pete Hegseth.
07:03It's a ploy.
07:04The American people will see through it.
07:06It will not help the Republicans one bit.
07:10Okay.
07:11Dr. Vela, one, two leaders.
07:17One, of course, President Donald Trump.
07:19He still has two years as president.
07:22The other one, Benjamin Netanyahu.
07:25He is still the man leading Israel for the next one and a half months before the final decision is
07:36made.
07:37Do you think that because both of them have been pushed against the wall,
07:41they will be, you know, going all out?
07:45Or should I rephrase it, perhaps find new ways of targeting Iran?
07:51Is there a sense, is that the sense in Tehran now?
07:55I think there are lots of sense within the next month it will be very crucial for both the countries.
08:01Because of the domestic political compulsion of both the leaders,
08:05they may go still to the extreme.
08:07However, having said that, I would say that Netanyahu,
08:10now he will not be able to form the government
08:12because the Arab groups in the Kineset have already decided to show support
08:17and give support to the Eisenhower.
08:19So I believe the opposition will be in a position to form the government.
08:22In that case, Netanyahu will face the trial at home
08:25and he will have a problem also with his domestic politics and his political career.
08:30Even then, the President Trump also on the other side,
08:33he will be facing that because the Republicans are not buying.
08:36And I fully agree with Alan,
08:38what he has been saying about the domestic issues in the United States
08:41and the Republican definitely he will find a scapegoat to blame Dixit.
08:46But however, the situation inside the United States is so much
08:49and the normal taxpayer in the US and domestic issues
08:52have become more prominent and more harsh on the public of the United States.
08:56And that's why he will have to have some kind of sacrifices,
09:00not only with some of the top cabinet ministers, with his government,
09:05but I believe even they may go to the extreme of impeaching the President Trump.
09:09Okay, so because of domestic compulsions, both leaders are going to have tough times.
09:16So Dr. Awad, what is the future of this war?
09:19I think the future of the whole world wanted this end to this war.
09:22The fact of the matter remains that Iran is not willing to succumb to the pressure
09:27that the United States put the maximum pressure on them,
09:30on the economic sanctions and all.
09:32So therefore, they have passed the difficult situation during the war
09:36and they believe the best exit is for the United States to accept the seven points
09:40Iraq have presented to the US negotiator.
09:44And they said, we are ready for lifting up the siege of the Strait of Hormuz
09:48and also if the American left up the siege of the blockage of the Iranian commercial ship,
09:52provided also they will have lots of other six points to be achieved.
09:56If that is the case, I think an honorable exit for President Trump
09:59is the best way out of this war.
10:01Okay, Alan?
10:04Yes, I completely...
10:05What's the way out of this war?
10:07Trump has got to get out of this war.
10:10And how?
10:10He can't just bomb and bomb.
10:13I agree with the previous speaker who was very astute.
10:17He's got to go a pretty long way to accepting maybe not the seven points,
10:24but some version of it.
10:27You know, when we were losing in Vietnam,
10:29one very astute analysis says,
10:32get out and claim you've won.
10:34I think that's going to be the strategy of Donald Trump.
10:38Get out, even not on terms that he would have preferred
10:42because he has no leverage anymore,
10:45but get out on some terms and claim victory.
10:49That's all he can do at this point.
10:52He can't bomb his way into victory.
10:54He can't leverage the Iranians into accepting what he wants in American control.
11:01Gulf commitments on nuclear weapons, commitments on proxies.
11:05None of that is going to happen.
11:07He is in probably one of the weakest positions we've ever seen a president in
11:12at this stage in a war.
11:14All right.
11:15Alan Lichman and Dr. Vaila Vard, really appreciate your time.
11:19Thank you so much for joining us.
