- 18 minutes ago
On India First, host Gaurav Sawant leads a panel featuring former Managing Director of the US-India Business Council Alexander Slater, Ambassador Veena Sikri, and Sandip Unnithan to assess the fallout of the US election results. Alexander Slater remarks, 'It's hard to really capture the way in which the political landscape in the United States changed last night,' observing that Democratic control of both chambers will empower congressional investigations into Donald Trump's administration and business interests. The discussion analyses how rising gas and diesel prices tied to the conflict in Iran drove voter backlash across the country. Ambassador Sikri highlights how domestic inflation and foreign policy missteps will compel the Republican Party to recalibrate ahead of 2028, warning against further escalations in West Asia. Sandip Unnithan compares Donald Trump's geopolitical predicament to historical precedents, while the panel also explores potential shifts in bilateral trade relations with India.
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NewsTranscript
00:00Let me now throw this open for a wider discussion.
00:03Joining me on India First is Alexander Slater,
00:05former Managing Director of the US-India Business Council,
00:09Ambassador Veena Seekri and Sandeep Unnithan,
00:13three people who are looking at these election results very closely.
00:17Incidentally, Alexander Slater also worked for US Senator Charles Schumer,
00:22who will be the next majority leader in the Senate.
00:25You're a lawyer and you've represented clients
00:28who are subject to congressional investigations.
00:30And let me begin by asking you, what happens next
00:35when Democrats indicate they will call for files,
00:41they will call in Trump, look at his family business and interests?
00:46What happens next, sir?
00:48Well, Garth, thanks for having me on the show.
00:51I think it's hard to really capture the way
00:55in which the political landscape in the United States changed last night
00:58and didn't just change for the next two years,
01:00but changed significantly for the next six years.
01:02As I think last night when you heard Senator Schumer,
01:06who will be the new majority leader in January in the Senate,
01:10say, you know, the Senate is elected in six-year increments
01:16and a third of the Senate is up every two years.
01:19And so what that means is that this time around,
01:22it was a very pro-Republican map.
01:25But the next time around, it's much more favorable to Democrats,
01:29as is the next cycle.
01:30And so you have a potential for the Democrats
01:33to significantly increase their stranglehold on the Senate next time around.
01:39And the way the House works is that it really is a winner-take-all system
01:42because the leader, the Speaker of the House has, under the House rules,
01:48immense power just to set the agenda there.
01:50And so I think you see both houses now very, very sort of anti-Trump.
01:58I think they're going to take the message that they received from the Democratic,
02:01pardon me, from the U.S. people yesterday very seriously.
02:04You had both leaders of the Democrats in the House,
02:08Hakeem Jeffries, and leaders of the Democrats in the Senate, Charles Schumer,
02:11saying that affordability was the number one issue on the agenda.
02:16And in that, they both referenced gas prices explicitly.
02:19And so when you talk about gas prices,
02:21you're really talking about the war in Iran.
02:23That was a significant driver of higher prices across the board,
02:29whether it comes to petrol for cars,
02:32diesel for agriculture uses or industrial uses.
02:35And that really caused a significant upset among voters
02:40over the last six months.
02:42And so that's something that I think you'll see
02:46the Democrats focused on significantly.
02:48And the thing that I'm really watching from President Trump
02:51is how is he going to govern now?
02:53Because he's a lame duck president, right?
02:55He can't run again.
02:56And he's going to have all of the people in his cabinet
02:59who do want to succeed him,
03:00Marco Rubio as Secretary of State,
03:02J.D. Vance as Vice President,
03:04trying to carve out identities for themselves
03:06that are separate from him.
03:06And they're going to look a lot at what has happened here.
03:10And you can already see that J.D. Vance, for example,
03:13has tried to distance himself on Iran.
03:15And that's going to cause President Trump a lot of headaches,
03:18even though he still remains significant power
03:21in foreign policy, on trade and immigration,
03:24to do what he wants.
03:25Fair enough.
03:26He's already put out that picture of that red cap with veto
03:30written so strongly all across Ambassador Sikri.
03:34You know, if rising diesel prices and anger over overall rising prices
03:38brought the blue wave,
03:40will Trump try and focus on bringing the prices down?
03:44Will he be under pressure from the Congress?
03:46Or will he gamble by striking Iran into attempted submission?
03:51You know, that cap with a very strong veto written on it.
03:54What's your reading, ma'am?
03:56Well, I think the most important aspect is
03:59that for the next two months,
04:02President Trump does have somewhat of a free hand
04:04because the new elected members are going to be sworn in
04:08only on 3rd of January.
04:10So that's a big worry that,
04:13together with Prime Minister Netanyahu,
04:15are they planning another big attack?
04:17And the news that patriot missiles have been transferred to Israel,
04:21etc., is a big worry.
04:22But I think, on the other hand,
04:24I think one of the biggest problems is going to be
04:27how the Republican Party itself reacts to the election results.
04:32Because I think for the Republican Party,
04:35today the biggest point of view is going to be the 2028 elections.
04:39So they're going to do everything to try and get themselves
04:43elected in the 2028 elections.
04:45For this, they may have to confront President Donald Trump
04:50on some of his policies relating to the prices within America,
04:55the high cost of petroleum products and gas and diesel.
04:59And this will force him to tone down his talk about
05:04the mother of all bombs and all that.
05:06So I think that we have to really wait and see,
05:08first and foremost,
05:09what the Republican Party is going to decide within itself.
05:12For example,
05:13I heard that there were some reports from the American media
05:15that they're already saying that,
05:18okay, J.D. Vance is our candidate for 2028,
05:21so we're going to talk about that.
05:23So, you know,
05:23this is the biggest problem that within America,
05:26if the Republican Party is able to adapt to this defeat
05:30that has been handed out to them,
05:32whether it is the Senate,
05:34the House of Representatives,
05:35the Governors,
05:36everything,
05:36it's across the board,
05:37a total defeat.
05:38Oh, absolutely.
05:39Can they adjust to it?
05:41Because the American people have spoken
05:43and they've spoken loud and clear.
05:45I mean,
05:45ruby red states turning blue
05:47is something that not many would have imagined
05:50and so soon,
05:52within two years of Trump's election.
05:54Sandeep,
05:55nothing suggests that Iran wants to surrender
05:58or even negotiate on Trump's terms.
06:00Iran has been,
06:02one,
06:02hitting back,
06:03two,
06:03talking about hitting back.
06:05Iranians,
06:06you know,
06:06Iranian analysts say,
06:07before the Kesham Island strike
06:09a couple of days ago,
06:10they actually neutralized several American drones.
06:13So,
06:13they say we even have the technology
06:14to take down US drones now
06:17if US strikes.
06:19Then there will be consequences
06:20not just for Iran and the region,
06:22but the world
06:22because Iran will strike back across the region.
06:26Absolutely,
06:26Gaurab.
06:27And,
06:27you know,
06:27look at the date today.
06:29Today is the 3rd of November
06:30and it is the 47th anniversary
06:33of the capture of the US embassy in Tehran.
06:36And there are celebrations across Iran today.
06:39And,
06:40you know,
06:40they see this as an alignment of,
06:42you know,
06:43history literally repeating itself
06:44because you saw what happened
06:46with President Carter.
06:47We discussed it on your show last night
06:49that President Trump risks
06:51falling into the Carter trap
06:52and that's exactly what seems to have happened.
06:54He got into this war
06:56on the 28th of February.
06:57He miscalculated big time
06:59and now he's had to pay
07:01the consequences for that.
07:02He's lost the hill.
07:03He's lost both the Senate and the House.
07:05And it looks like
07:07he's not going to be able
07:08to recover very quickly.
07:09He,
07:09of course,
07:10has that,
07:10you know,
07:11the lever,
07:12the leverage of,
07:12you know,
07:14the external foreign policy.
07:16He can,
07:17you know,
07:17he has the thing over immigration.
07:20But when it comes to
07:22his legacy,
07:23his remaining two years,
07:24it's going to be
07:25a very deeply embattled
07:27presidency
07:28that you're going to be seeing.
07:29And the Iran problem
07:31isn't going away,
07:31Gaurab.
07:32As you said,
07:32Iran now believes
07:34it has,
07:34it holds the cards in this.
07:36Whatever shape and form
07:37that they are in,
07:38they've taken a battering,
07:39no doubt about that,
07:40in the last couple of months.
07:41But they seem to
07:42give as good as they get.
07:44So,
07:45this thing of,
07:45you know,
07:46their ability,
07:47as you mentioned,
07:47to expand the conflict
07:49horizontally and vertically
07:50across West Asia,
07:52this is the kind of warfare
07:53that we have not seen,
07:54at least in the 21st century.
07:55And Iran
07:56seems to be,
07:57you know,
07:58holding the cards
07:58on this one,
07:59Gaurav.
08:00Indeed.
08:01And Alexander Slater,
08:03American reputation
08:04when it comes to
08:05that battle with Iran
08:06appears to be in tatters.
08:09Will the Democrats
08:10back him
08:11for that wider cause?
08:13Or will they put
08:13some very tough questions?
08:15And then,
08:15is President Trump
08:16in trouble
08:17both internally
08:17with the Republicans
08:19and also with the Democrats
08:20questioning him?
08:22And does he really need
08:23the support
08:23to carry on
08:24this offensive
08:25beyond,
08:25only if he wants
08:26to carry it
08:27beyond 60 days?
08:28But for a short,
08:29sharp strike,
08:29he really does not
08:30need congressional clearance
08:31and, of course,
08:32the new members
08:33only get sworn in
08:33in January.
08:34So he has this
08:35two-month window
08:35of opportunity
08:36to strike.
08:38Gaurav,
08:39I think,
08:39you know,
08:40on Iran,
08:40we should just
08:41take a step back.
08:42I think tactically
08:43everyone would agree
08:44that Iran
08:44has been decimated.
08:45I don't think
08:46that there is
08:46a competition
08:47between the U.S. military
08:49and the Iranian military.
08:52The United States
08:53defeated
08:53the Iranian military.
08:55However,
08:56the United States
08:56military did not
08:57achieve the strategic
08:58goals of President Trump
09:00and that's a difference,
09:01right?
09:02The military is a tool
09:02to achieve what you want
09:04just like diplomacy
09:05is a tool
09:06to achieve what you want
09:06and I think
09:08in this circumstance
09:09the military tool
09:11was not aligned
09:12given what President Trump
09:13was willing to do
09:14with it
09:14to achieve the strategic
09:16outcome that he was
09:16looking for.
09:17But again,
09:17I think on the
09:18reputation issue,
09:19I don't think
09:20other people
09:21or other countries
09:21around the world
09:22are looking at this
09:23and saying,
09:23let's go to war
09:24with the United States.
09:25That's not the lesson
09:26to take from this
09:27because Iran
09:27was decimated
09:28on the battlefield.
09:29It may well have been
09:30but the Strait of Hormuz
09:31was open
09:32on the 28th of February.
09:33It isn't today.
09:34American will
09:35does not prevail.
09:36American,
09:36you know,
09:3711 aircraft carrier
09:38strike groups,
09:39three were in that region.
09:41They had to withdraw
09:41and you're absolutely right.
09:42American weapons
09:43may be the best
09:44but warfare is changing.
09:46Legacy systems
09:47versus disruptive technology.
09:49The Americans
09:49are yet to catch up
09:50with the Shahids
09:52or now the jet-powered Shahids.
09:53They're also trying
09:55to adapt
09:56and not as fast,
09:57isn't it?
09:58Alexander Slater,
09:59before I bring in
09:59Sandeep on this.
10:02Well, look,
10:02again,
10:03I don't want to get
10:03bogged down in that.
10:04I think you and I
10:04have different views
10:05on that.
10:07Again,
10:07the strategic objectives
10:08were not achieved.
10:09So I think
10:09I'm agreeing
10:10with what you're saying
10:11but I just don't think
10:12tactically anyone
10:13is, you know,
10:15chomping at the bit
10:15to go to war
10:16with the U.S. military
10:17at the moment.
10:17Completely agree with you
10:18on that.
10:19Oh, completely.
10:20World's most powerful military,
10:21world's most powerful economy.
10:23No two ways about that
10:24except aim,
10:26not achieve.
10:27But Ambassador Sikri,
10:28is Trump's legacy
10:29today in tatters?
10:31And will he
10:33seek external aggression
10:35to salvage that reputation?
10:38Because perhaps
10:38except Donald Trump
10:39and Pakistan's
10:41Aasem Munir,
10:42no one takes Trump
10:43seriously on stopping
10:44eight wars.
10:45Yeah,
10:46you're absolutely right.
10:47I think that
10:48we have to remember
10:48that the two main issues
10:51in these elections
10:52were the economy,
10:53the internal economy
10:54and the prices
10:54and gas and other products
10:56and the Iran war.
10:57And the internal economy
10:59poor situation
11:00was due to the Iran war
11:01because the whole energy
11:02situation unraveled
11:03because of that.
11:04Now, if President Trump
11:05is going to
11:07continue with the Iran war,
11:08it's going to make him
11:09even more unpopular.
11:10And that's why
11:11I feel that the Republican Party
11:13may try to restrain him
11:15because so far
11:16he's not been restrained
11:17by anybody.
11:18He's been taking decisions
11:18on his own
11:19and going right ahead.
11:21So I think
11:22at this point
11:22it is a very
11:24delicate moment.
11:25We all hope
11:26for the better of the world
11:27and for everybody
11:27that the Iran war
11:30does not escalate
11:31and this new attack
11:32will not take place.
11:34But similarly
11:35with the Ukraine-Russia conflict,
11:37his interest should be
11:38to end that conflict.
11:39Otherwise,
11:40the Democrats,
11:41of course,
11:41certainly I agree
11:42that they will be
11:42more sympathetic to Ukraine
11:44than to President Putin.
11:46And so it is in his interest
11:48to end that
11:49also in the next two months.
11:51So I think
11:51all in all,
11:53rather than escalating
11:55external conflicts,
11:56he should be interested
11:57for his own legacy
11:59in ending them.
12:00And I hope
12:00that this is the view
12:01that will prevail
12:02and the next two months
12:03can be used for this,
12:04for bringing the wars
12:05to an end
12:06and bringing some semblance
12:08of a good economy
12:10in, you know,
12:11a reviving economy
12:12in America
12:12so that the Republican Party
12:14can deem itself
12:15ready to face up
12:16to the next two years.
12:17You know,
12:17before I bring in Sandeep,
12:19okay,
12:20Alexander Slater,
12:20do you see more confrontation
12:22between the White House
12:23and the Hill?
12:24Because clearly
12:25there is no daddying
12:26Donald Trump anymore.
12:29You know,
12:30both the Senate
12:31and the House
12:31now firmly
12:32in democratic control.
12:35Will they keep
12:36summoning his administration,
12:38looking into
12:38his business interests,
12:40looking into
12:40his family's
12:41business interests,
12:41and will that
12:42lead to more
12:43confrontation
12:43between the House
12:45and the Hill?
12:46White House and the Hill?
12:47Absolutely.
12:48Absolutely.
12:48I don't think
12:49there's any question
12:50on that.
12:51You know,
12:51Senator Schumer
12:52last night
12:52when he spoke
12:53to the media
12:53after it became clear
12:55that the Democrats
12:56would retake the House
12:57and the Senate
12:59said three things.
13:00Costs,
13:01chaos,
13:01and corruption.
13:02And of course,
13:03the corruption
13:03is the thing
13:04that you're talking about.
13:05There's also
13:06some element of chaos
13:06as well
13:07in terms of
13:09the disorganized nature
13:11in which Trump
13:11seems to go about things
13:12and the back and forth
13:14in which he goes
13:14about things
13:15constantly changing
13:15his mind.
13:16And I think
13:17congressional investigations
13:18are a very important tool
13:21towards exposing that.
13:22And I think
13:22you're going to see
13:23a lot of that.
13:24At the same time,
13:24I think you'll see
13:25the White House
13:25stonewall significantly
13:26on allowing people
13:28to testify,
13:29on turning over information.
13:30This is right
13:32in Trump's playbook
13:32when it comes
13:33to how he
13:34conducts himself
13:35in court.
13:35And I think
13:36that he has
13:37even better grounds
13:38to be an obstructionist
13:40when it comes
13:41to stonewalling
13:43folks in Congress.
13:43At the same time,
13:45this will significantly
13:47weaken him
13:48even more
13:49than he has already
13:49politically weakened now
13:50because there will be
13:51information that leaks out.
13:52The Democrats
13:53will be able
13:53to obtain information
13:54from non-governmental players
13:57who were involved
13:58in many of these deals,
13:59especially the private sector.
14:01I don't think
14:01that you're going
14:02to see many CEOs
14:03now running
14:04to go to the White House
14:05or contributing
14:06to a White House ballroom
14:07because I think
14:08a lot of them
14:09will be slapped
14:10with a subpoena
14:10to testify
14:11on the nature
14:12of those interactions
14:13as soon as that happens.
14:15And so,
14:16it's going to be
14:17a very, very different
14:18political environment
14:18and I think
14:19that for that same reason,
14:21even folks
14:21like J.D. Vance
14:22or Marco Rubio
14:23may get tied up
14:25in some
14:26of these investigations.
14:28The attacks
14:29that seem
14:30to be quite unlawful
14:31on boats
14:32in and around
14:34Central and South America
14:35by the U.S. military,
14:36I think Pete Hegseth
14:37will be hauled in on that.
14:39I think Marco Rubio
14:39has made statements
14:40about that.
14:40He'll be hauled
14:41in on that as well.
14:42And I think J.D. Vance
14:43is in and around
14:44every issue
14:45in the White House,
14:46especially on immigration.
14:47And these are things
14:47that for the Democrats
14:49are real political issues
14:50where I think
14:51that they can score points
14:52and really take down
14:53candidates
14:53for the 2028 election.
14:56And so,
14:57you'll see
14:58a much more
14:59confrontational posture
14:59between Congress
15:00and the White House.
15:01and I think
15:02you'll see
15:03even Republicans,
15:05especially those
15:06who have presidential
15:07aspirations
15:07who are not part
15:08of the administration,
15:09joining from time
15:10to time
15:11with Democrats
15:11to criticize
15:12the excesses
15:14that many voters
15:16this time around
15:17identified,
15:18whether it's on costs,
15:19whether it's on foreign policy,
15:20or on corruption.
15:23You know,
15:23very interesting
15:24because these developments
15:25will be very interesting
15:26to follow
15:27and to report.
15:28Ambassador Sikri,
15:29do you see any change
15:30in trajectory
15:31of the India-America
15:33relationship?
15:34Do you see forward movement
15:35on the trade deal,
15:36for example?
15:37Well, you know,
15:38I think
15:39one of the big issues
15:40that President Trump
15:41is going to consider,
15:43perhaps,
15:43is his whole policy
15:45on weaponization
15:46of tariffs.
15:47Is he going to continue
15:49with that?
15:49We've always seen,
15:50for example,
15:51already seen
15:51in Canada,
15:52with Canada,
15:53what chaos it has caused
15:54in the US-Canada relationship
15:56and Canada
15:57is now looking
15:57to join
15:58with the European Union.
16:00So, you know,
16:00all over,
16:01it's not just with India,
16:02but with many,
16:02many other countries,
16:03the weaponization
16:04of tariffs
16:05has caused
16:05so much distress
16:07and breaks
16:09in the relationship.
16:09So, we really hope
16:11that this aspect
16:12will no longer
16:13be a prime target
16:14for President Trump
16:15and that the trade deal
16:17can be concluded
16:18very soon
16:19on a mutually agreeable
16:20and mutually beneficial basis.
16:23That's very,
16:23very important.
16:24so that it brings back
16:25predictability
16:26in this relationship.
16:28Absolutely.
16:28Ambassador Seekree
16:29and Alexander Slater
16:30for joining me here
16:31on this part of India.
16:32First,
16:32many thanks.