00:00uh lamar jackson probably will play today it looks like he will for the ravens so he is back
00:04the ravens are one of the best teams in the nfl when he is on the field and when he's
00:07not we see
00:08what we saw last week which is the ravens aren't very good the buffalo bills are off a buy this
00:14week they are laying three points and uh you know i'll talk about this one a little bit later on
00:20but uh i just think a very big danger zone for buffalo here this this line to me is why
00:26is it
00:26not five why is it not six why is it not seven kind of thing uh so joe i will
00:31be backing baltimore
00:32today uh because of that you know for me it's less about what the results are more about what the
00:36lines are and uh i i i'm surprised that buffalo is a short favorite here and until they start until
00:44they stop somebody on defense i can't back i mean look i can back them to win games but uh
00:49i i think
00:50the ravens uh you know this comes right down to the end probably for me and i'll take points when
00:54i can
00:54that's that's my view on this one i think i think that's a fair assessment uh lamar jackson is back
00:59but he's certainly not 100 healthy but you know what i'm gonna back the over uh why because neither
01:06of these defenses are special let me just hit some numbers here for you for the buffalo bills they are
01:11ranked 30th in points allowed per game total yards per game 31st passing yards allowed per game 31st
01:17rushing yards allowed per game 15th third down conversion rate they're 27th worse than the nfl 45
01:23it's a lot of bad stats there for the buffalo bills defense so they're gonna allow even i think
01:28not 100 lamar jackson to be productive i think enough in this game i know it's been tough the last
01:34couple weeks with our good pal derrick henry the king has abdicated his throne but uh i they have
01:41him at 80 and a half rushing yards this week and i think vegas is looking at an uptick from
01:45derrick
01:45henry i also think the over on josh allen's rushing prop is something you should look at as well
01:50most markets have it somewhere around 35 and a half i would go over in that one but for me
01:54it's
01:54the over that is the place where i want to live in this game rather than picking a side because
01:58whenever you have two big dynamic quarterbacks especially the ravens have a must win kind of
02:03situation here they got to stop the bleeding here with this record i'm gonna agree with you i'd
02:07probably lean towards the ravens but instead rather than have to pick a side i'm just gonna go with the
02:10over here because i think points will be abundant because neither of these defenses are very good
02:14plus you got a healthy dj moore back for the first time in a couple weeks too that should help
02:17add to this total as well potentially with another weapon on the field for josh allen
02:22there's something also to keep in mind because on the earlier shows of the week the bye weeks come
02:26up you know teams off the bye and this team's off the bye then it's just a narrative and it's
02:31just
02:31natural to think that you want the team off the bye well folks if you take a look at the
02:36lat i did this
02:36this week just to be sure that i wasn't crazy but if you look at the last three years of
02:40football
02:40there's absolutely no difference against the spread whether a team has a bye or does not have a bye
02:47in fact two years ago 30 covering when teams had a bye this year a little bit above 50 so
02:53folks
02:53don't factor that in to your handicap it sounds good from people like us that are yelling and
02:59screaming it is not a factor not a factor at all going into the games in the future take a
03:04look at
03:04the data you'll find exactly what i saw
03:06you
