00:00Okay, guys, Michigan-Indiana, super excited for this one.
00:03Really curious, Dave, where you land on it
00:06because I'm actually pretty annoyed by this game
00:11because it's a little complicated.
00:14It's all in my own head.
00:17Allow me to kind of set the stage for Michigan-Indiana.
00:22So the Hoosiers come in off a loss to Ohio State to get a game
00:26that if they win, they are the number one ranked team
00:27in college football.
00:29Michigan come in, having finally made the move off of Bryce Underwood
00:33and going to Tommy Carr.
00:37And the move was seemingly inevitable because Kyle Whittingham,
00:42Michigan's head coach,
00:43but a lot of their week one almost kind of did loss
00:48to Western Michigan on Underwood.
00:51For me, though, coming into this season,
00:53what I really, really wanted was for the Michigan Wolverines
00:57to struggle against the teams that their fan base thought they would beat.
01:01And then when we were playing, you know, the Indianas, the Oregons,
01:09the Ohio States to get big numbers, that's what we have.
01:14I'm getting over a touchdown in Ann Arbor.
01:17And why not?
01:19A little car connection as a Notre Dame guy going from CJ and bet on Tommy.
01:23It makes sense.
01:25So what am I so angry about?
01:28Why is Michigan plus seven and a half not only on my card but my best bet?
01:35Because I need more because Cignetti is off a loss.
01:40And that does not sound like someone I really want to fade here, Dave.
01:47So it's like a dream number.
01:49And I'm now being greedy, being like, nope, need ten and a half.
01:52Can't bet it without ten and a half.
01:53Can't do it.
01:53Can't do it.
01:54Can't do it.
01:55Which is why you set the table for why I want nothing to do with the point spread of this
02:00game.
02:01And I'm going to go right back to what I did last week with Indiana-Ohio State.
02:04It's like rinse and repeat.
02:05And we're going to go under 42 and a half.
02:07Now, the difference is I'm not getting 49, 50 and a half like we got last week at Ohio State.
02:13But Michigan's not Ohio State.
02:14So, therefore, that number is going to be lower for a reason.
02:16You still have two of the best defenses in the country just like we had last week.
02:21Indiana allows 12.9 points per game.
02:23Best in the Big Ten, fourth best in the nation.
02:25They just held their Ohio State behemoth to 19 points and 300 yards of offense.
02:29But the offense themselves can only master, we'll call it two touchdowns.
02:33It was like two and a quarter for that last play of the game.
02:36They only had 369 yards.
02:38They're ninth in total defense.
02:41Michigan, arguably better at defense.
02:43Fourth in the nation and first in the Big Ten in yards.
02:4619th in scoring while facing a much more difficult schedule than Indiana.
02:50Indiana, 4.1 yards per play is tops in the nation.
02:54So, I'm talking about two of the best defenses just like I talked about last week.
02:57Well, Ohio State had two Heisman Trophy candidates on their offense.
03:01Michigan has none.
03:02They have allowed 20 points or fewer in all six games.
03:05And that includes Oklahoma, Iowa, Minnesota, and Penn State.
03:09But they can't score.
03:10Now, they transferred quarterbacks.
03:12Exactly what you hope would happen.
03:14Here you got Tommy Carr.
03:15Looked great last week.
03:17Really, really looked good versus Penn State.
03:19Guess what, Kevin?
03:20Indiana is not Penn State.
03:22So, Indiana comes in with a much better defense than Penn State.
03:25And I don't expect Tommy Carr to move the ball like he did last week against the Penn State Nittany
03:29Lions.
03:30Both teams play very slow.
03:32We saw this last week.
03:33Average Indiana, 60 offensive plays per game.
03:36Michigan, 58 offensive plays per game.
03:38It's a slower tempo game in the Big Ten.
03:41Two good defenses.
03:42Indiana's offense is what has made them struggle this year compared to last year.
03:46And Michigan's offense resembles something that I'm going to throw out on the flag football field in a couple of
03:50hours.
03:51So, I'm under 42.5.
03:55I, before I knew you were on the under, made a little note that felt completely, completely impossible.
04:03But it is true.
04:05The only Michigan game this season that has had more than 40 points in it was against UTEP.
04:13That is ridiculous.
04:15And I don't mean, just in case anybody's looking for it, just to be sure.
04:19I don't mean where Michigan scored 40.
04:21No, I mean the two teams combined scored 40.
04:2525 Western Michigan, 27 Oklahoma, 39 Iowa, 34 Minnesota, and 39 last week against Penn State.
04:34They haven't allowed more than 20 points in any game this season.
04:37And they've played Oklahoma, Iowa, Penn State.
04:41They've played big teams.
04:42Have not allowed more than 20.
04:44And their offense stinks.
04:46This is going to be one of those hold your nose, 19 to 7 games.
04:51That's what you're going to see.
04:54The worry for me on the total is Indiana is, and you would agree with this, Indiana is better than
05:01all those teams you mentioned offensively.
05:03Correct.
05:03Without a doubt.
05:05But that's what, again, that's why I couldn't bet Michigan, is if you tell me, hey, Indiana get to 27,
05:11I don't think that that necessarily means you are under, is in trouble.
05:17But I think it would mean my plus 7.5 hypothetically would be in trouble.
05:21But I think it would be in trouble.
