- 17 minutes ago
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio visited India to advance discussions on the India-US bilateral trade agreement, energy cooperation, and strategic security ties. During the visit, Rubio confirmed that negotiations on the trade deal are approaching conclusion, with outstanding discussions centering on reciprocal tariffs under Section 301, agricultural access, and civil nuclear cooperation under the Shanti Bill. In addition, Rubio toured the Reliance Industries oil refinery complex in Jamnagar, Gujarat, to address energy flows, heavy crude refining, and the integration of Venezuelan and US crude supplies. Strategic discussions covered technological infrastructure, satellite communications, counterterrorism cooperation, and Quad maritime domain awareness initiatives. Panelists and experts, including Michael Kugelman, Dr. Ajay Srivastava, Pramit Pal Chaudhuri, and former USIBC Managing Director Alexander Slater, reviewed diplomatic approaches to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, critical supply chain security, talent mobility, H-1B visas, and the domestic political timelines impacting bilateral commerce between New Delhi and Washington.
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NewsTranscript
00:00Hello and a very good evening. This is our special broadcast. I'm Geeta Mohan and joining me
00:04in this show is Maria Shakil. We are going to talk about the biggest interview when it comes
00:11to India-US ties. Secretary of State Marco Rubio was in India and an exclusive conversation with
00:20not just Marco Rubio but also with the Ambassador of US to India, Sergei Gaur. It was done by our
00:27group editor publishing Raj Chengappa and that's what we're going to discuss this evening.
00:32From trade and tariffs to oil, terror and global partnerships. The high stakes conversation
00:39covered it all. Over the next one hour Geeta and I will be decoding the big takeaways from this
00:44exclusive conversation with our experts who will be joining me on the show. First up Marco Rubio
00:49confirmed that the India-US trade agreement is very close with only a few issues left
00:56to negotiate. He insisted that the final deal must benefit both the countries.
01:02Absolutely and we will be listening into what he's to say when it comes to the nuances but the fact
01:08is
01:08that there are a lot of areas that require ironing out and will that happen before Prime Minister
01:15Narendra Modi-Maria goes for the G20 in the United States of America or for that matter during the East
01:22Asia and the ASEAN summit in Manila. President Trump had said that India and the US are pretty
01:28close to sign an agreement and it would be different. What I'd like to know is Washington
01:34willing to give India the competitive tariff advantage it is seeking for this interim trade
01:38agreement? Well I'm not going to get into the specifics of any agreement until they're done
01:42because there's still a number of items being negotiated although very few. So we're very close and
01:46I anticipate I can't foresee anything that will keep us from reaching agreement but there's still
01:51some items that are being discussed. So I'd prefer not to like go into the details of it until it's
01:55all fully worked out. Suffice it to say that once this deal is done it has to be one that's
01:59beneficial
02:00to both countries and that's what I anticipate it will be. I think the concern is that India expects
02:06continuity rather than unpredictability and there is a super 301 provision hovering around. So could we expect
02:14that there will be continuity and not, you know, continuously have to revise our tariffs?
02:19Well that's the point. The point of having an agreement is to be able to have certainty so that people
02:23know they can invest, people know what the rules are that are going to govern terrain and commerce
02:27between the two countries. That's the very purpose of having a deal. And so that's what we're working towards
02:32and I feel very optimistic that we're going to get to a very good place very soon.
02:36Excellent. And Ambassador Goff, turning to you, when it comes to the investment relationship, where do you see the next
02:43big wave of
02:44American investment coming into India and in which sectors do you think that will be?
02:47Look, our bilateral trade is at an all-time high. Our bilateral trade 15 years ago used to be $20
02:53billion.
02:54Today it's $240 billion. And it goes both ways. You have incredible investment coming into the United States.
02:59The President recently hosted SR and Oval Office. They're opening incredible facilities, multi-billion dollar facilities
03:05in the United States that are creating jobs in local communities for Americans. On the other hand, this is a
03:11win-win situation.
03:11We have American companies that have moved here, especially relating to IT. Now, when they move here, that complements a
03:18job back home also.
03:19This is not a one-way street. And so our goal is to keep increasing that bilateral trade and identify
03:25those win-win situations.
03:26And let me bring in Michael Kugelman, Director, South Asia Institute, the Wilson Center.
03:32And also joining us on the show is Ajay Shivasta, Founder, Global Trade Research Initiative.
03:38Michael, let me begin with you. You know, this has been waiting for pretty long.
03:43There has been some tough negotiation by India. But finally, it seems like that it is the last-mile hitch
03:51that is what is being indicated by Marco Rubio.
04:00Yeah, thanks. And just to clarify, I'm not with the Atlantic Council.
04:04You know, we've heard many times over the last few months that the two sides are close to a deal.
04:09And, you know, we're hearing that again now.
04:11And if you have a glass-half-empty approach, you could say, well, if we've been hearing so many times
04:17that a deal is close but the deal isn't actually finalized, there must be a problem.
04:20But it does seem that things are different now.
04:23And I think that one thing that is new is that the Trump administration recently announced that it's going to
04:29hold off implementing the new Russia sanctions bill, which could have potentially targeted India with new punitive measures.
04:38And I think that that has perhaps opened up some space for the U.S. and Indian sides to do
04:44what they need to do to negotiate to the finish line.
04:48And I like to think there's a good chance that by the end of the year there will indeed be
04:53a deal.
04:54Well, Mike, stay with us. Dr. Ajesh Rastava also joins me, founder of Global Trade Research Initiative.
05:02Ajesh Rastava, the fact is that, you know, Michael is talking about all these issues that still are niggling areas
05:11when it comes to the trade deal.
05:12How hopeful are you that there could be a trade deal sooner than later?
05:17Because the niggling issues are not small issues that can be ironed out anytime soon.
05:24We are talking about farmer security. We are talking about agriculture and dairy. And that continues to be a major
05:29concern.
05:31I think today, even though everyone is talking that deal is near, I think one major lacuna is there, one
05:38major gap is there.
05:39What tariff U.S. is going to offer to India?
05:42You know, we are negotiating this deal under the framework we signed as India-U.S. joint its checkmate on
05:48February 6th.
05:49Therein U.S. promised to cut its tariff, reciprocal tariffs from 25% to 18%.
05:54But just two weeks after that, U.S. Supreme Court held those reciprocal tariffs as invalid.
06:01It means Trump did not have power to impose them in the first place.
06:04Since then, nobody knows, U.S. does not know, India does not know, that what tariff now U.S. is
06:12going to offer.
06:12I'll give you an example.
06:14For example, I am exporting shirts to U.S.
06:16So today I am paying 22% tariffs on this, 12% normal regular tariff, we call it MFN tariff,
06:22and 10% U.S. imposed on 60 economies, including India, forced labor tariff.
06:28So 22%.
06:29So U.S. has to clarify, if we do a deal, whether this 22% will come down to 20,
06:3615, 10, 0, or it will remain the same.
06:39Today, the countries with which U.S. has signed the trade agreement, including Japan, South Korea and many others,
06:46the tariff remains the same.
06:48So countries who have signed the trade deal and countries who have not signed, they are paying the same tariff.
06:53So that's untenable position.
06:54U.S. has not verified this.
06:56One more thing U.S. has not verified, certainty from future tariffs.
07:00For example, U.S. did sign an agreement with, say, European Union, Japan, Korea,
07:05but even after signing, it has imposed new tariffs under Section 301.
07:08So we want certainty, if we are going to concede so many things,
07:12we want certainty that, okay, this is enough, this level, no more in the near future.
07:18So those two things are missing right now from the U.S. narrative.
07:21But, Mario, that's what exactly Marco Rubio said in this interview, Ajay.
07:26He did say that if a trade deal is signed, that will bring certainty to the room.
07:32Do you believe that, Michael, that a trade deal would bring certainty to this relationship under Trump administration or with
07:39the Trump administration?
07:41I think that Rubio's reference was in the context of investor and traders.
07:48No, I mean, I do think that if there's a trade deal, that'll be a big boost for the relationship.
07:52It would be a confidence-building measure.
07:54But there's clearly a lot of work to do still, or there would still be a lot of work to
07:58do to get the relationship back on track, broadly speaking, if there's a trade deal,
08:03just because there are a number of issues that are not tied to trade and investment that have generated tensions
08:10in this relationship.
08:11As you well know, whether we're talking about the Trump administration's very deep embrace of Pakistan's army chief,
08:19or whether we're talking about the perception that this administration views the relationship with India through a transactional lens
08:26and not through the lens of the strategic partnership that really defined the relationship for the last decade plus.
08:34But I think that for investors and traders and others that would be directly impacted by a trade deal, obviously
08:42it would be a good thing just because there'd be certain things set in stone.
08:45But let's be clear that even if there's a trade deal, that doesn't mean that there's not going to be
08:49future tensions over whatever type of commercial issue might come into play.
08:55But my view, the reason why I think that a trade deal would be so important is that it could
09:01really make it easier for the two sides to work through the other issues,
09:06the other problems in the relationship, just because I think it would be a confidence building measure, would be a
09:12good thing that both sides would feel happy about.
09:14We want to now increase and move forward. We keep Michael Kugelman with us. He continues to join us and
09:24stay with us.
09:25But the focus now is going to move towards the biggest story from this interview, Maria, and that has to
09:32do with energy security and why Jamnagar is important.
09:37Absolutely, because oil and energy security were at the center of Rubio's Jamnagar visit as Washington is looking to expand
09:47the way around, Venezuelan oil flows, diversify supplies and ease pressure on American fuel prices ahead of the midterms.
09:55For India, the opportunity is to secure competitively priced crude while retaining flexibility over its energy choices.
10:03Let's listen in to what Marco Rubio said specifically on this.
10:07Can you please elaborate on the national interest cited by President Trump for the U.S. to buy Russian diesel
10:16and also a waiver of sanctions for India to buy Russian crude oil when earlier we were actually penalized for
10:22doing this?
10:22Well, a couple of points. The first is right now you're looking at global economy. All foreign policy has to
10:27be balanced holistically.
10:28You can't just look at everything to the lens of one country or one conflict.
10:31And right now, while we remain very concerned and are doing all we can to bring an end to the
10:35war between Russia and Ukraine, we also recognize the impact that that war is having on the global economy,
10:41in addition to what we've seen in the Straits of Wormuz and now increasingly the Red Sea.
10:44And so I think the president made a very wise decision, which is to, for some short period of time,
10:49allow there to be additional energy flows into the global marketplace, not just to benefit us.
10:54Obviously, it helps the United States, but also diesel prices are high all over the world.
10:58In the case of India, look, India has made real progress in diversifying its portfolio of energy.
11:04And it's done so not because of threats or anything of that nature.
11:07It's in India's interest to diversify its portfolio, where it gets energy from.
11:10You never want to be overly dependent on one country versus another.
11:13So it was already on that trajectory to begin with.
11:15So it's not so much about buying less Russian oil than it is about buying more U.S. crude or
11:20Venezuelan or others from the Western Hemisphere.
11:23I think that's in India's interests.
11:25And obviously, we want to help facilitate it.
11:27And more importantly, where India has real capability is the capability to ramp up refining, which crude oil is great,
11:34but you need to refine it in order for it to be a usable product.
11:36And I think India has the capacity and the capability not just to refine more, but to, in a very
11:42short order, have the kinds of investments that would allow it to expand its refining capability even further.
11:47And that's why you went to Jamnagar, and was it to enhance energy cooperation between India and the U.S.?
11:52Well, we already have energy cooperation.
11:53It's more important to go see the facility and see how they operate and understand a little bit more about
11:58how it works.
11:59It's a very impressive facility.
12:00But it also happens to be a company that has an investment in the United States in Brownsville that is
12:05hopefully going to be online by 2029.
12:07So it was a good opportunity to interact with a company that's investing in expanding refining and refining capability in
12:13the United States at the same time as a facility that I think could play a role in helping refine
12:18more crude from the Western Hemisphere and thereby allowing the world to diversify away from the Middle East.
12:24I want to continue with this question of energy. And if you look at India recently opening up its civil
12:30nuclear sector for private investment, particularly in the small modular reactors that we're talking about, do you see now finally
12:38a breakthrough moment for American investment in technology in India?
12:42We've had incredible momentum on that. And as you know, things take time.
12:46But to the government's credit here, to Prime Minister Modi's credit, the shanty bill passed, which enables SMRs and private
12:52technology and this new equipment to be able to come to India.
12:59And so there has been some regulation challenges. Nothing gets done overnight. These are very complex issues.
13:03And they'll set up the relationship for decades to come. Right.
13:06But India is one of the first places that the United States is looking at possibly to have our first
13:11SMRs internationally.
13:12And so we're on an incredible path there. We've had meetings in Washington. We've had meetings on this in Delhi.
13:17We've had some meetings right here in Mumbai because the regulatory agency for India is based here on that.
13:22So it is moving in the right direction. I do think we'll get there on that soon also.
13:27At a time when the global conflicts now are deciding global oil prices, crude is scarce.
13:34There is a lot of scarcity when it comes to how crude is reaching various countries. Jamnagar facility becomes very
13:42important.
13:43Here's a report on why it is important and the significance of U.S. Secretary of State visiting Mukesh Ambani's
13:52Jamnagar facility.
14:01U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio took his India visit straight to the heart of the global oil business.
14:09Reliance Industries massive refinery complex in Jamnagar.
14:14Rubio visited the refinery and met the Reliance leadership to discuss opportunities to deepen U.S.-India energy and commercial cooperation.
14:23This visit put oil, trade and geopolitics on the same table at a critical moment for global energy markets.
14:34With a refining capacity of around 1.4 million barrels per day, Jamnagar is the world's largest single site refining
14:42complex.
14:43Its ability to process diverse crude grades including heavy, high sulfur oil gives India a strategic advantage as global oil
14:53supply chains shift.
14:55Reliance has previously processed Venezuelan crude.
14:58Its sophisticated refining infrastructure makes it a potential buyer as Washington seeks to expand Venezuelan oil flows and build alternatives
15:11to Russian oil to diversify global supplies.
15:15For India, Venezuelan crude could offer strategic economy in energy sourcing and deepen energy cooperation with the United States.
15:24There is also a domestic political calculation for Washington.
15:28Reliance's biggest export is diesel, which Trump has been particularly worried about with prices reaching historic highs in the U
15:36.S. ahead of midterm elections next month.
15:40For Washington, Rubio's visit is about reshaping global energy flows.
15:44For New Delhi, it is about securing supplies, managing costs and preserving strategic autonomy.
15:52And for both countries, the question is whether a shared commercial opportunity can translate into a stronger, more resilient energy
16:00partnership.
16:03Bureau Report, India Today.
16:08Joining us now are Michael Kugelman, who continues to stay with us, Senior Fellow Atlantic Council, and Pramit Palchaudhuri, Head
16:15of India Practice, Eurasia Group.
16:16Thank you, Pramit.
16:17Pramit, Pramit.
16:17Pramit.
16:17Pramit, good to see you on our show.
16:19Let me go back to Michael first, and then I'll come to you, Pramit.
16:22The fact that Jamnagar facility is of great significance at a time when we saw Mike Elon Musk tweeting against
16:32the Ambani family and Ambani's control or influence in India.
16:40We have the Secretary of State visiting Jamnagar.
16:43What's your reading of the visit, and why Jamnagar?
16:49I think in that, in the interview, Secretary of State, Rubio, we really get the two main reasons.
16:57This was very clear from the start.
16:59One is that the U.S. wants countries, including India, to be doing more than is well in oil, and
17:05wants countries like India to be importing more of it.
17:08And, of course, what makes the Reliance facility in Jamnagar so significant, other than the fact that it's huge, is
17:17that it has the capacity to refine crude, including Venezuelan crude.
17:23So that's one reason for the visit to Jamnagar, in my view.
17:26The second is the fact that, at least in principle, Reliance has pledged to back this Envision new oil refinery
17:35in Brownsville, Texas.
17:36It's still aspirational, so far as I understand, but I suspect that Rubio wanted to check in with Reliance and
17:42with the Ambani family and to try to see if the U.S. administration can still count on the buy
17:48-in of Reliance for helping finance that massive Envision new project in Texas.
17:56All right.
17:57And let me take that thought ahead with Pramit.
18:01Pramit, you know, the fact is that India stood its ground.
18:04And just a few days before the arrival of Marco Rubio, there was this, you know, that press release which
18:14was put out, which essentially meant that there'll be no more punitive tariffs on India, because India continued to purchase
18:22the Russian oil.
18:24How do you look at India's positioning right now vis-a-vis the global energy security?
18:31Well, so on the issue of the tariffs, yeah, it was made, I think, reasonably clear by the Indian system
18:38that they could absorb the 100 percent tariff if it was imposed.
18:43Not only because of about a sizable amount, 55 percent, I think, of Indian exports to the United States, mainly
18:52iPhones and farmer products, it already would have been exempt.
18:56But Indian companies, if you wish, have found ways to get around some of that tariff or diversify their exports.
19:05And the other problem with it, if you look at the Graham bill, it's a very bizarrely drafted bill that
19:12is internally contradictory.
19:14And it also makes it clear that it doesn't even have to be Russian oil.
19:17India could buy Russian vodka and that would be the basis for the 100 percent tariff.
19:21So there was no reason for India to obey a law that really gave so much discretionary power to the
19:29president.
19:29It was not about India buying Russian oil.
19:31It was completely up to whether Trump just was was unhappy with India for some reason or another.
19:36So that's one part of it.
19:38So India has two, curiously, two leverage points in the world hydrocarbon market.
19:44This will be oil, gas, LPG, which includes both LPG and LNG, is that one, it has refining capacity.
19:53Traditionally, India has the fourth largest refining capacity in the world.
19:57But with Ukraine having destroyed almost half of Russia's refining capacity, India has been jumped up to third place.
20:05Now, it's still much smaller than, let's say, China or Russia or United States, which each have about three times
20:11more refining capacity.
20:13But it has a lot of surplus capacity.
20:16In other words, we export roughly 10 to 20 percent of our diesel that we produce.
20:22We also export a fair amount of aviation fuel.
20:26A lot of countries, China, for example, has actually been restricting exports that it needs.
20:32Whatever it produces, it's basically keeping at home.
20:35So automatically that gives India refining this leverage in the international system, which is why you saw Secretary of State
20:44Rubio call India a refining superpower.
20:46And Jamnagar, in particular, is unusual in the fact that if you've ever visited the facility, it can refine a
20:54staggering number of variety of crudes.
20:57Crudes comes in all sizes, shapes and sizes, heavy crude, which is used for diesel, light crude, which is used
21:05for petrol, and so on.
21:06And Jamnagar can handle the entire spectrum, if you wish.
21:13The second part of the leverage is actually, ironically, an Indian weakness, in our view, is that India is simply
21:20just a huge hydrocarbon market.
21:22We import massive amounts of oil, gas, LPG, because we produce almost nothing at home.
21:28And as a consequence, we are a, should we say, a coveted market.
21:33So if you look at what's happened in the Gulf War, UAE, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Iraq, one of the
21:41reasons that they have been careful to maintain a good relationship with India throughout this conflict, even though India hasn't
21:48done much one way or the other, is that they're still looking at us as a future market.
21:52They're saying, if there's one country we can sell oil and gas to over the next 30, 40 years, it's
21:58going to be you.
21:58I once interviewed King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia, and he says, you are going to be, he told me, he
22:04says, you are going to be the future hydrocarbon market of the world.
22:07And we need to be close to you.
22:09So that gives us, and the United States now looks upon us, I would argue, in the same way.
22:13The Trump administration is highly transactional, very obsessed with resource economics as a base.
22:22If I could just, if I could just come in, if you, if you, if you look at what Rubio
22:27said, it's not just about how important Jamnagar is in terms of refining capability and capacity.
22:34It's also about the fact that he was unabashed in saying that it's not about buying less Russian oil.
22:39It's about buying more U.S. crude and Venezuelan oil.
22:43So they've come with a clear agenda in how they're looking at India, why they're looking at India, and why
22:49they're looking at Jamnagar.
22:51So the point is that what the Americans lack, see, the Americans are saying that America is now the world's
22:57largest oil and gas producer, right?
23:00And it is, it is already, we've, they've already been able to, and India, as Rubio rightly said, India wants
23:07to diversify away from the Gulf.
23:09So buying American LPG, LNG makes perfect sense.
23:13What America does not have is heavy crude.
23:16America is largely a light crude producer.
23:19It doesn't have the heavy crude that is required for diesel production, which we have either traditionally gotten from Iraq
23:26or nowadays from Russia.
23:28So it's the gap, it's the, it's the part of the market in India that America cannot fulfill, but it's
23:36doing so through Venezuelan oil, which is effectively now treated as American.
23:41Given that the concerns remain around crude, where do you see this development actually, you know, moving ahead, particularly with
23:50regards to refining happening at the Jamnagar facility?
23:55So, let's put it this way.
23:57One of the questions you can ask, why, why is Rubio even here?
24:00He's come not on a foreign policy visit.
24:03He's come on a business visit, which is very unusual for US Secretary of State, but perfectly in line with
24:08the Trump administration.
24:09So I would argue that he is looking either, one argument is he's looking at a presidential race in a
24:15couple of years from now, or he's, or, and to some degree these are related, he's looking to curry favor
24:22with President Trump.
24:23You have to keep giving Trump things to keep yourself in his good books.
24:29And so for Rubio, one of the best ways to do that is to basically bring money to the United
24:35States.
24:36To go back, I would argue Rubio going back to Trump and saying, I met Prime Minister Modi and we
24:41tried to sign a strategic agreement.
24:43Trump will be like, oh yeah, okay, fine.
24:46But on the other hand, if I came back and I've got reliance to publicly acknowledge the $5 billion Brownsville,
24:52Texas refinery, and India has agreed to buy an additional, ensure that an X amount of diesel is produced.
25:01And given, I think that's a calculation by a Venezuelan economist, 36% out of every dollar that the Venezuelan
25:09oil right now goes to the United States.
25:13It's effectively a colony of America now is then Trump would be like, yes, this is the kind of stuff
25:21I like.
25:22Because that, not only can I, I can even sell that in my November midterm elections, but it just makes
25:28him happier.
25:29He likes exactly those type of numbers that come in.
25:33So I think for Rubio in many ways, and I think it's true for almost his entire administration, that's what
25:39he basically has to do.
25:41But Pramit, you know, you have interestingly analyzed what Trump would be thinking, but what is Elon Musk thinking then?
25:48Yes, Pramit, pray tell.
25:51So I'm not a great, I don't know Musk, I've not analyzed Musk as well, but look, Musk is, he
25:57runs his own foreign policy, if you wish.
25:59And he has been extremely frustrated that he feels he has fulfilled so many of the requirements of the U
26:07.S., of the Indian government on a whole host of fronts.
26:10But his problem is that he's not, which I don't think he fully understands, is that when he began to
26:16try to sell Starlink to India, the India-U.S. relationship was strategically much more sound than it is today.
26:26Now India is looking at the United States and saying, can we fully trust, depending on a SAPCOM system developed
26:36by the United States?
26:37Not clear to us.
26:39Not only that, if you've seen Musk, he runs his own foreign policy in the Ukraine, for example.
26:44So then you have an additional degree of uncertainty.
26:48So I can see why the Indian government wants to be very careful how far it moves.
26:53Now, Musk says it's because of the Ambani's.
26:57Possibly true.
26:58That is also an element of that, obviously.
27:00That's always the case in any foreign player entering an Indian market, that he has to deal with Indian domestic
27:06rivals.
27:06But I would argue that the security element is actually a bigger problem now, that in core technologies, whether it's
27:14AI, semiconductors, SATCOM systems, and so on, you have to have strategic reliability.
27:22Because once you sign up for those systems, and definitely defense weapons, you're looking at a 20, 30 year dependency.
27:31And that requires you to be very, very confident that the other side will remain somebody you can trust.
27:38All right, Pramit and Michael, really appreciate your time.
27:42Thank you so much for joining us.
27:44Geeta, let's move ahead.
27:46Right.
27:47Shifting focus now from the two big issues that we've covered, the very important issue for India is also to
27:55do with terrorism, Arya.
27:57And terrorism was one of the focus points, or focal points, so to say, in the conversation that we had
28:04with the Secretary of State that Raj Chengapa conducted.
28:08And this is what the Ambassador and the Secretary of State had to say.
28:13What is America doing to assure India that its current closer ties with Pakistan will not come at the expense
28:21of India's fight against terrorism?
28:23Well, first of all, the United States has to have a relationship with as many countries in the world as
28:26possible,
28:27because we have a global presence and a global interest in anything that's going on.
28:31So our relationship with Pakistan is not new.
28:35I think it's just developed in a way that allows us to have, hopefully, more influence over the decisions they
28:41make on a variety of topics.
28:42In no way does the relationship with Pakistan come at the expense of our relationship with India.
28:47We share the same concerns India does about terrorism.
28:50We are not, we have been victims of terrorism, as India has been.
28:53And we continue to, in fact, no country in the world does more to go after terrorism in the United
28:57States than the United States.
28:59It was the United States under President Trump that destroyed ISIS or Daesh in the Middle East.
29:03It's the United States that eroded Al Qaeda.
29:05It's the United States that went in and eliminated Bin Laden.
29:10It's the United States that's gone in now and, unfortunately, has had to go into parts of Africa and take
29:14on these elements as well.
29:16So I don't think any country in the world has shown a greater commitment to go after the terrorism, terrorism,
29:21global terrorism the United States has done.
29:23And that includes many of the same sort of ideologies that also threaten India.
29:28Joining us now is former diplomat Ambassador Sanjay Kumar Verma.
29:32Ambassador Verma, thank you so much for joining us.
29:35This is a very significant moment.
29:38You have handled and tackled terrorism that emanates from Pakistan and has been a very troubling issue for India at
29:47this point in time.
29:49The Secretary of State clearly says that America will continue engaging Pakistan, albeit he did mention terrorism and the fact
29:58that it's not just India.
29:59America is also a victim of terrorism.
30:01What's your reading and how do you read America's positioning of its foreign policy when it comes to India vis
30:09-a-vis Pakistan?
30:11As Secretary Rubio very clearly said, that it is not one versus the other.
30:18They have a larger relationship to carry all over the world.
30:21But at the same time, in a way, he also talked about the terrorism from Pakistan and that India and
30:30the U.S. both are victims of terrorism.
30:34Bin Laden, he talked about Bin Laden.
30:36So Bin Laden was all the time hiding in Pakistan, and he was taken out by the Specialist Forces.
30:42Same thing happens when we talk of Dawood Ibrahim.
30:46Same thing happens when we talk of some of the Khalistani terrorists who have been hiding in Pakistan.
30:52So India knows it best.
30:54India has been facing the brunt up front.
30:57And some of these radical ideologies have also been exported in a way that U.S. got impacted.
31:07Interestingly, what he says is that in no way does the relationship with Pakistan come at the expense of our
31:13relationship with India.
31:14So we share the same concerns India does about terrorism.
31:18Given the developments that we have seen of Asim Muneer and others travel to White House, the kind of camaraderie
31:25which was on display,
31:27and India's concern continuing post-operation Sindur, that India continues to maintain that point that blood and water or relationship
31:39cannot happen together.
31:41I mean, the fact that this is the kind of terrorism that has been emanating from Pakistan and India has
31:47been at the receiving end.
31:48Where do you think India will be seeing this? How do you think India will view this view, which has
31:55been very, very clear now, crystal clear, which has been perhaps articulated by Marco Rubio here?
32:02I think it's the outcome of a long engagement with the U.S.
32:07And our principal interlocutors, Dr. S. Jashankar, as well as the Honorable Prime Minister.
32:13They have been talking to their counterparts in the U.S. for a long time about how Pakistan presents a
32:19threat to India, to the region, and probably to the entire world.
32:24The Secretary of State also talked about how they want to influence the decisions in Pakistan.
32:31That itself says a lot, which means the decisions being taken in Pakistan, particularly on counter-terrorism, is not something
32:39to write home about.
32:40And therefore they want to influence the decision that Pakistan is making in order to make the borders a safer
32:48place, as well as to eliminate terrorism from Pakistan.
32:51As far as we are concerned, we have not seen any hint of that.
32:55In fact, it has got further enhanced with the kind of governance that Pakistan has, with the kind of ISI
33:05infiltration in the government that Pakistan has,
33:08the kind of military interventions that Pakistan keeps getting in order to pop up the terrorist activities and terrorist elements
33:20in Pakistan.
33:21Ambassador, continue to be with us because, Geeta, let's move on and play another part of the interview where Marco
33:27Rubio has spoken on the trilateral meeting between U.S., Russia and Ukraine,
33:31and whether it can be seen as a realistic path to ending this long-drawn Russia-Ukraine conflict. Listen in.
33:39President Putin said yesterday that Russia was willing for a tripartite meeting with the U.S. and Ukraine over ending
33:45the war.
33:46What do you see as a realistic path to ending the Russia-Ukraine conflict?
33:51Well, it's a very difficult conflict to end. I know the president has dedicated a tremendous amount of time to
33:56it.
33:57We have people that do nothing all day but work on trying to find a way to make a difference
34:00and bridge those differences.
34:02I would just say to you that that war, while people keep talking about it's a war in Ukraine, that
34:05war is about Donbass.
34:07It's about one region of the country. At its core, it's about 11% of one part of that country
34:12that Russia wants and cannot take militarily.
34:14And that Ukraine is unwilling to give up. And they have the reasons why they don't want to do that
34:20for sovereignty and their own security long term.
34:22And so the question is whether there's some accommodation that both sides will have to make some concessions in order
34:27to bring an end to the war.
34:29This war is not going to be solved militarily. This war is only going to end diplomatically.
34:32And the question is, can you arrive at an outcome in which both sides receive something, a benefit, but also
34:38give concessions and bring this to an end?
34:40So it's been difficult. But I can tell you this, as hard as it is, it is impossible to do
34:45unless both sides are at the table talking.
34:47And we're happy to play the mediating role in that regard. So that's really what we're trying to do.
34:51Not claiming that just getting them in the room is going to solve this problem, but we have no chance
34:55to solve it if we can't get them in the room.
34:57Ambassador Verma, this is another big piece of the interview.
35:01Apart from the fact that he was very, very clear about energy security and trade tariffs, competitive advantage, he spoke
35:09about the trilateral and what America wants from it.
35:14How do you think and where do you think they're headed? One, do you see peace anytime soon?
35:20Because that could really ease the global economic and also oil supply problems that the world is now faced with.
35:32So first thing in that region is if we can see a cessation of hostilities. And if we see various
35:40proposals doing rounds, including one coming from India, and Prime Minister Modi talking to both President Putin and President Zelensky,
35:48where President Putin was very clear that India is trying to play a role in which the peace could be
35:56restored in the region.
35:58So all these proposals are on the table. The U.S. is trying its own trilateral mechanism. India has been
36:04trying to facilitate if it is asked to do so.
36:07There is an Egyptian plan on the table. So if we see all these things, then the world actually wants
36:14that conflict to end.
36:16It's not only about energy. It's also about weapons. It's also about migration from that country, refugees moving over to
36:25other parts of Europe.
36:27The agriculture, Ukraine is a wheat basket. So agriculture getting damaged. So if I look at all these things, then
36:38the cost of reconstruction of Ukraine, if the war stops today,
36:42will be multiple trillions of dollars. And therefore, it is very important that before it goes further out of hand,
36:50there should be some solution that should realize the cessation of hostility between the two sides.
36:58All right. Ambassador, really appreciate your time. Thank you so much for joining us.
37:02And we are going to shift focus now to Alexander Slater, former MD of U.S.-India Business Council, who's joining
37:09us now.
37:10Mr. Slater, appreciate your time. I mean, the concern really has been about when will India and U.S. trade
37:17deal actually take shape?
37:19As someone who is in this circuit understands it better than most, help us understand why and why is it
37:28that this deal has taken way too long?
37:30And still, there's no clarity. Neither of the two sides can speak about a possible timeline.
37:37Gia, thanks so much for the invitation to join you today and for the question. I agree. I think that
37:44the folks who watch this intently, like me and several others, are a bit miffed at why this continues to
37:53drag on.
37:54As you will recall, in February of this year, too much fanfare. The two sides came out and said they'd
37:59reached a framework agreement.
38:01Upon closer examination of that agreement, it in many ways was an agreement to just keep talking about very specific
38:06issues.
38:07And those talks continue to drag on to today. Very recently, associated with U.S. officials, high-level U.S.
38:15official visits to India,
38:16there have been obviously positive statements that they've made about this, including that the big issues are resolved
38:21and they're just crossing the T's, dotting the I's, as it were. But the history of U.S.-India trade negotiations
38:27shows that this is where things take time,
38:30that the two sides have a real difficulty in coming to terms with a final agreement.
38:36You'll recall that during President Trump's first term, there was a mini-trade agreement on the table between the two
38:43sides,
38:43and that President Trump came to India in 2020, beginning of 2020, and there was a lot of speculation that
38:53he might sign the agreement while he was there.
38:54But that didn't happen. And the reason was because they couldn't come to an agreement on totalization of benefits.
39:01And so I think we're in a similar dynamic here, where the two sides continue to wrangle.
39:07And I think it would be very unlikely that you would see any trade agreement announced between the two sides
39:12before the midterm elections,
39:14because I think that there could be constituencies that could have an impact on the President's party's chances in those
39:22elections that would be negatively affected.
39:23Okay. So not before the midterms, but what about after Alexander?
39:29Because we're looking at leadership level engagement, whether it's Trump, Modi, or for that matter,
39:36U.S. Secretary of State visiting India in quick succession.
39:41These are the two visits in a matter of five months.
39:44So that's clearly giving importance and significance to India.
39:49But having said that, even if the leaders meet and there's a reset,
39:54do you really see the trade deal being signed when Prime Minister Modi is in Florida for the G20?
40:03It's hard to say.
40:05You know, I really wouldn't want to speculate on that because, again,
40:08the two sides have said very positive things before about what they're discussing
40:14and where things are going, and things haven't materialized.
40:18And part of this is that, you know, this is taking place against a shifting geopolitical landscape.
40:23If you go back to February, for example, one of the things that Prime Minister Modi committed to
40:28under the framework agreement was to reduce all purchases of Russian oil and effectively stop that.
40:35And that was at a time when President Trump was putting a lot of pressure on Russia to stop attacks
40:41on Ukraine.
40:42Fast forward to today, and we've just seen that the President has waived the provisions of the Graham Act,
40:49which effectively would have allowed him to put huge tariffs on countries like India that are not,
40:56that continue to purchase Russian oil or are a top five purchaser of Russian oil.
41:00India today, I believe, is certainly within that group.
41:04And in July reached its highest monthly barrel purchasing of Russian oil ever.
41:10And so this is not, again, in any way to point fingers at India at all.
41:13But it is a way of saying that it's a fluid situation in which this trade agreement is being negotiated.
41:20And the things that they talked about in February that they cared about, they seem not to care about anymore.
41:25At least the U.S. side doesn't seem to care about as much.
41:27And so it's very hard to understand where things are going.
41:31I think that the election in the United States, the Iran attack has really scrambled the calculus that was in
41:39place before.
41:39Alexander, what happens if the midterms don't go Donald Trump's way?
41:44Will it impact the trade deal?
41:48I think it certainly will.
41:50I mean, but it all depends on how those midterms go.
41:54Right.
41:55You can imagine a situation where if he does very poorly in agricultural states that the discussions about agricultural tariffs
42:05and purchases might go another way.
42:09And so, again, I think this is a really difficult question to ask at this point in time because we
42:16don't know what the landscape is going to look like.
42:18And again, it's been shifting rapidly from February when they entered the framework agreement, and it is poised to shift
42:24again with the midterms.
42:26Well, the landscape certainly is shifting, not just when it comes to bilateral Alexander, also when it comes to geopolitics
42:33and various blocks.
42:35Look at Quad.
42:36There was so much certainty with Quad, and today everybody is confused, so much so that Raj Chengapa actually had
42:43to ask the U.S. Secretary of State about the status of Quad,
42:46listening to what the U.S. Secretary of State had to say.
42:49I'm glad you mentioned the Quad because how do you see, Secretary, the Quad evolving, particularly in the face of
42:57China's growing assertiveness?
42:59And what more can India and the United States do together to secure critical supply chains and reduce their dependence
43:06on China?
43:07Well, just on the Quad point, it's a relationship and it's a construct that we've developed.
43:11It's actually the first meeting I ever did as Secretary of State.
43:13It was a Quad meeting.
43:14I think we've had more Quad meetings in the last year and a half than probably the previous four years
43:19combined at the foreign ministry level.
43:20And I understand now, and we're going to have a leaders level meeting now very shortly, probably in December at
43:25some point.
43:26And we try to arrange even more before the end of President Trump's terms.
43:30He's got two and a half years left.
43:31So this is a very important relationship, but I think it's important not just because we have four countries that
43:36are coordinated with one another.
43:37We're beginning to see outcomes.
43:38We're beginning to see results.
43:40As an example, maritime awareness, the ability to know what's happening under the water, threatening cables, and so forth.
43:46This is something that the Quad is working together on, and real things are happening.
43:50I think the same is true.
43:51I think it's an area of cooperation that we can have when it comes to supply chains writ large.
43:56The one thing I think is a consistent theme across the world, but certainly in the U.S.-India relationship, is
44:01we do not want to be overly dependent on any country in the world.
44:05I'm not singling out China.
44:06I'm saying any country in the world.
44:07We don't want to depend on any single country in the world for 90 percent of anything that's critical to
44:12our economies.
44:12And we have to have the domestic capacity to do certain things for ourselves.
44:16I think that's an interest India has.
44:18That's certainly an interest the United States has under President Trump.
44:21And I think that's something we can work together on.
44:23And that is where can we create domestic capabilities in a mutually beneficial way for both countries on various key
44:31sectors, be it artificial intelligence or technology or biomedicine or pharmaceuticals.
44:36I mean, the list goes on and non-critical minerals.
44:38Obviously, everybody talks about those.
44:40OK, Alexander, there's a lot of conversation and there's a lot of news points from this interview.
44:47But he's pointed out or listed out all the things that are important to India and the United States of
44:54America.
44:54But the basis of all that is human contact, not just leadership contact.
44:59And immigration, visas, H-1B is a stickler when it comes to this relationship.
45:08I think that this relationship is built on three pillars, right?
45:12There's obviously the government to government relationship.
45:14There's the commercial relationship.
45:15And of course, the people to people relationship.
45:17And I think you're putting your finger on a very important issue.
45:20The people to people relationship has been facilitated by things like academic exchanges and then the ability to work in
45:29the United States after graduation.
45:33And the H-1B visa program has been instrumental in allowing many Indians who have come and studied in the
45:40United States availed themselves of the benefits of the system here and contributed, frankly, to the well-being of the
45:45United States through their labor, through their energy, through their innovation, through their ideas to stay here and to continue
45:53to thrive.
45:53And then some of them obviously move back to India and take what they've learned here and help energize its
46:00own thriving technology ecosystem.
46:03So it's a very, I think, positive benefit and part of the two countries' relationship.
46:08It's very sad to see what's been happening now.
46:11And there's not really, you know, there is some merit to the idea that some companies have gained the system
46:16and that the system is in need of reform.
46:18But I don't think that what has happened now addresses solely that issue.
46:24This goes a lot further than that and I think will ultimately end up choking off a very valuable source
46:30of human capital for the United States.
46:32All right, Alexander, really appreciate your time. Thank you so much for joining us.
46:36And as we wrap up this conversation and this broadcast, a word from Geeta.
46:41What is the big takeaway in terms of relationship that Marco Rubio spoke about between Prime Minister Modi and Donald
46:51Trump?
46:51Well, Maria, after a long pause in the relationship, so to say, where a lot of heated exchange or strong
47:01words were used for India,
47:03we are finally seeing a moment where leaders are coming together, having conversations, seeing meaning in the reality of where
47:11India is today.
47:12And that's the biggest takeaway from this conversation, energy security, defense cooperation, terrorism.
47:20You can talk about anything and you cannot have India out of the picture.
47:24That's the big story.