00:00And here's the focus. The focus this time is of energy, of oil, of fuel, and it is as much
00:06about the elections that are upcoming in the United States of America.
00:09Let me break it down for you in this explainer about this visit in five months again of the U
00:14.S. Secretary of State.
00:15America is seeking new sources of refined fuel amid the global crisis.
00:19Russia, Ukraine still at war. The West Asia conflict, Israel, Iran still right now, of course, war clouds are there.
00:26And America is involved in each of these conflicts. So what happens in cases like this?
00:31The fuel shortage in the United States of America as well.
00:34So what America is planning to do here is, as India becomes a major refining hub, especially Jamnagar, processing crude
00:41oil into diesel.
00:42So in Jamnagar, the Reliance Industries have the world's biggest refinery, where it is the crude oil that is being
00:48managed.
00:49And that is why being turned into diesel, especially, that's what the United States of America is looking at.
00:54Also, Reliance's Jamnagar refineries is because amongst world's largest and are planning with a unit in Texas, in the United
01:02States of America.
01:03That is what is being looked at as a possible investment and a relationship that India and America can have.
01:09Now, why this is crucial?
01:10Bargo Rubio is going to be in Jamnagar as well after this Mumbai visit.
01:14America's diesel prices are surging to over $6 per gallon.
01:19What happens in cases like this? Diesel will be crucial, not just for vehicles, but also, remember, for industries, for
01:25other commercial aspects.
01:26Higher diesel prices will mean it will push up the food prices, the inflation.
01:31It will hit directly for the American consumer and a burden on their pocket.
01:36And what happens in turn, because of that, it's going to build political pressure.
01:39The price rise will pile up fresh on the Trump administration right before the November midterm elections.
01:46And no politician would want to lose.
01:48He can see what's coming because of the war-like situation of which America clearly is a part.
01:53And therefore, they want to already have options.
01:55Russian refineries have already been hit in the war.
01:58That has been a major source of export for most countries.
02:02India becomes, therefore, a viable option.
02:04And that is what the United States of America is now looking at, investing, and, of course, strengthening that relationship
02:11as well.
02:12Because Reliance is backing the new refinery in Texas, that relationship becomes stronger as well.
02:17This, remember, becomes the biggest aspect right now of an energy relationship,
02:22of how India's investments in its own country is being seen,
02:28how Rubio's visit, that can lead to talks on diesel supplies to the USA.
02:33And a country, very interestingly, that once imposed tariffs on India for wanting to buy oil from Russia,
02:41USA is intending to do the same and reaching out to countries, including India as well.
02:47I want to immediately go across and bring in Geeta Mohan here for the latest about how we look at
02:53a situation like this
02:54in the ways that how energy relationship will become the most crucial.
02:59Geeta, as we look at this, this can be called as an energy visit in itself.
03:04But for a country, for a president to say,
03:06I'm going to impose tariff on India because you're buying from Russia.
03:09And look at what USA is trying to have, options now.
03:12Well, that's right. Again, you know, this is a reality check-in, which is what Marco Rubio is saying,
03:18that partners and allies might find it difficult, and that's the reason why they're doing this.
03:23But at the end of the day, the Lindsey Graham bill imposes sanctions on five countries,
03:29which includes China and India.
03:31The trade deal will not move forward if you have 136% sanctions,
03:38because Lindsey Graham bill says buy 100%, not 200%.
03:43So it's an increase of 100% over and above what you already have.
03:49That's not a viable option when two countries are in talks.
03:52So Marco Rubio actually has been honest and has spelt it out in no uncertain terms
03:58that the waiver that American administration has today asked for
04:04is to ensure that countries like partners like India are secure in their energy interests.
04:11But he has been very honest by saying that it's because we want the trade deal through.
04:16Let's be honest. Now, how does this help India?
04:19How are we in a situation of, let's say, in a decision-making situation on the table?
04:25We do not want U.S. to only, of course, take advantage of our resources,
04:29but also it should help us politically or whether we're looking at geopolitics or in other ways.
04:33Well, that's right. And India is quite realistic about that as well, Pooja,
04:37because India realizes that over here, America thinks America is at a disadvantage
04:44because the imbalance of trade is in our favor.
04:47Correct.
04:47Right. But India does not want its farmers to be hit because of a trade deal
04:53or an agreement that goes south for Indian farmers.
04:56And that's why the items that he's talking about, which are only a few that are left on the table,
05:02are actually the most important ones.
05:04So while we are having this conversation, like Nirmala Sitaraman and that conversation she had with me
05:09at the Munich Security Conference, very clearly said that all the give and take that India could do is done.
05:17We can no longer negotiate and give more, which means she's saying take it or leave it in so many
05:24words.
05:25So the conversation now is how to nuance the entire trade deal to ensure that India's concerns,
05:32is also America's concerns, are taken into account.
05:34And yet they have a deal to show when Prime Minister Narendra Modi goes to America for the G20.
05:42We do not really know whether it's going to happen and whether it will be signed in December.
05:47But should it not be, it's going to be a huge blow and a prolonged conversation yet again.
05:54But should it happen, then it will be one of the biggest achievements that the Trump administration has managed.
06:02Also we'll see how this impacts in the November midterm elections for the Trump administration.
06:07On a lighter note, Gita, what else is on the itinerary?
06:09What about food, cuisine, it's the Navratri, Vijay Dashmi.
06:13Are we expecting some cultural aspect to come in here on this visit?
06:16Well, no specifics on cultural aspect, but expect something from the Reliance side.
06:25Because when he was in Jamnagar and even here, there is a moment where I think he's going to have
06:30a conversation
06:31and will be visiting the cultural center of the Ambani.
06:36The NMASA, yeah.
06:37Yes, yeah.
06:38So we'll have to wait and see what really is in store for Mr. Rubio.
06:42But the fact that he's meeting, and he's also meeting a lot of business leaders.
06:47It's not just the Ambani's.
06:48He is in Bombay, so there is going to be a massive engagement with the business community,
06:54the industrialist community of India.
06:56And that's going to happen in Bombay.
06:59Quite a few of the names are not being revealed.
07:02They're keeping it quite hard.
07:04What I can pick from your words, Gita, is that this is going to be primarily about business, investments, trade.
07:11More than, of course, there is politics always here.
07:14But it's got to do...
07:15Dr. Jaishankar is there in Bombay.
07:16But it's primarily about investment, trade deals, and that relationship that India is in a position,
07:21and I admire that.
07:23I appreciate that India is in a position to also take a decision and be, in many ways, a partner
07:29to the USA.
07:30Yes, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no,
07:30no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no,
07:30no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no,
07:30no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no.
