00:00Let me bring in Sandeep Unitan, Dipanshu Mohan, who is the professor and dean of General
00:04Global University and visiting professor at Oxford and London School of Economics. We also have
00:10Gurjeet Singh, former ambassador of India to Germany, joining us. Gurjeet Singh, I'm going to
00:15begin with you, Ambassador Singh. You know, let's put the spotlight on the meeting which is going
00:20to happen in 20 minutes from now. A lot of expectations, a lot of takeaways likely. What
00:26will you be watching out for? This is going to be my question to all three of you. So
00:31begin with you, Ambassador Singh. You know, particularly beyond the Bonhomie, the foundation of India-Russia
00:40relationship has always been also on trade. Thank you. So indeed, I would watch the body
00:48language because since they met in Bishkek, there's not that much which has changed. But
00:55today you have BRICS upon you and you have to find a way out. And if India and Russia are
01:01among the
01:01leaders of BRICS, then they have to provide that leadership to ensure that there is a successful
01:07BRICS. So that responsibility should be showing today, which was not necessarily the case in
01:13Bishkek. Secondly, you keep talking about trade. What is this trade with the Russians? It will always
01:22be 9 to 10 billion dollars. It is not a major trading partner. It is only oil trade which
01:28makes the difference. So let's talk about oil. And you are going to keep needing Russian oil
01:34so long as the Iranians keep disrupting oil supply. So here are your two BRICS partners,
01:41one providing you solace and one providing you unhappiness. So this is what BRICS needs to
01:47deal with. Can we persuade the Iranians to resume oil supplies and create some level
01:54of order in the Strait of Orgut from their part without blaming everything on the United States?
02:01And that will even out your relationship with Russia and show you the reality of that relationship.
02:07Let me bring in Sandeep Unitan, who is also joining me here in the studio. Sandeep,
02:12you know, what is evident here is multiple areas of cooperation between the two countries.
02:18But let's talk about defense. Gaurav there was showcasing what India is showcasing to the world.
02:23This is a very important moment for the country. First the G20, now BRICS. The entire world is
02:30converging to New Delhi, even as those countries were not part of this grouping, will be watching
02:35out, particularly Washington. Absolutely, Maria. And you know, the India-Russia relationship,
02:41it actually, the foundations were laid by the defense trade and the fact that we've been
02:47importing Russian equipment, hardware from the 1960s. That's almost 60 years now. And that has
02:53stood us in good stead in the conflicts that we fought, the defensive wars that, if you can call
02:59them that, whether it is 1971, Kargil 1999 and as late as Operation Sindur, where two Russian systems,
03:06the BrahMos supersonic cruise missile and the S-400 played a very crucial role. That relationship
03:12continues, Maria. And now, the challenge is now to look for joint development projects. Like the Su-57 was
03:19one project that we had looked at some, nearly two decades ago that couldn't materialize. Our own fifth
03:26generation fighter aircraft program is now delayed. So we are possibly looking at the Su-57 manufactured by the
03:32Soviet, by the Russian Federation as a backup plan to our fifth generation ambitions. And look at other areas
03:40of collaboration, cooperation. Russia and India have a very unique partnership in that. This is the only
03:45country from where we can lease nuclear-powered attack submarines. And we've been doing that twice in the past,
03:52from the 80s, in the 2000s. And now, there's a third nuclear-powered attack submarine that should be joining us
03:58in a couple of years.
03:58So it's a very unique relationship that we have with the Russian Federation. There is no other
04:04relationship that India enjoys with any other country in the world that we do with the Russian Federation, Maria.
04:12Let me bring in Dipanshu now. Dipanshu, the talk particularly with regards to cross-border payments
04:18in local currencies. What has the movement been on that so far?
04:24So first of all, thanks for having me here. I think the most important highlight of the summit
04:30in general is to what extent you see the new development banks overall pitch in the next six to seven
04:41years.
04:42What do you expect the new development bank to do in terms of ensuring that there is
04:50more trade in local currencies? I mean, if you see there are three key players here, Russia, India and China,
04:57of course.
04:58China has really dominated much of the authorized capital presence in the new development bank.
05:04India wants to ensure that its own bonds are issued in Indian currency, something which is likely to happen very
05:11soon.
05:12South Africa has done that previously, but my sense is the huge demand of issuing stable bonds
05:18through national currencies would come bearing a lot on the Indian side. And the recent, you know,
05:24foreign exchange swaps will be taken in precedence of how credible the Indian currency market is. So
05:31much of what we are seeing right now, the importance of the easier entry mechanism for businesses to enter
05:38some of the countries that are part of the 2030 economic partnership agenda. And to what extent
05:46payments can be made in domestic currencies more easily will, I think, centrally underpin to what
05:53extent you see the success of the summit. But I want to just say that the credibility of this BRIC
05:58summit is a lot on the strength of its language than on the usefulness of the outcomes made in the
06:04declaration. There is a lot of discussion around trade.
06:08Let's talk about the strength of the language that you speak about.
06:11You know, because, of course, India, like it did in G20, will be looking at that point of convergence.
06:17The aim, of course, will be the New Delhi consensus or declaration.
06:24Yes, absolutely. I mean, in fact, if you see the vested interest for each of the countries is very
06:31different. I mean, you need coherence and cohesion, perhaps as one of the most important things at this
06:36time in a very fragmented multi-order system. The BRICS offers itself not just as an asset class,
06:44which is the world's majority capital-providing countries. It also has some of the largest
06:50population-sourced countries, which has to ensure mobility.
06:54Let me give you that number. It's 49.5 percent. These 11 countries together.
06:59That's their demographic strength.
07:02So, India's case of ensuring strategic autonomy, I think the first litmus test of that starts with
07:08managing BRICS. It knows that China and Russia wants to dominate much of its projection in the
07:16developing world. BRICS was created as a political union for that reason. And I think somewhere India
07:22would require retaining the freedom to engage with being part of its national interest. And three key
07:29pillars for that would be trade facilitation. I think it's still a little over-dependent on the
07:36Russian trade balance. It needs to do it, but it needs to expand its exports, particularly in
07:42services. That's where the strength of services-led exports lie. Digital commerce, of course, is a very
07:48important area, the point we made earlier. But also, the ability to have backup supply chains,
07:55which is the alternative route for supply chains for essential commodities. I mean, one big example here
08:01is MSMEs. That is the job-creating sector for India. It employs maximum people stepping out of
08:08the agricultural area. And there's a huge demand for export lending incentives for both China and
08:14India, Russia, from the Indian market. I think there's a lot that needs to be done in that regard.
08:20Because frankly, if you look at it from the perspective of a businessman, it's not about the
08:26summits or all that is happening behind the scenes. It's about how easy it is to enter a market, how
08:32easy it is to get a business visa, to make a cross border payment that will underline what comes out
08:37of this. And the next three years are the most pivotal. Yes, I think that has been summed up quite
08:42well by you, Dipanju. Let me go back to Sandeep and try and understand the bilateral cooperation
08:50and the meat that will be happening between the two nations. Of course, energy security is going to be
08:58another aspect, you know, because Sandeep, Washington has been pressing India to cut down its purchase of
09:08oil. And that has not been done by Delhi, because they certainly believe in their relationship between
09:19with Moscow, very different from what their equation with, you know, Washington is.
09:25How do you see that shadow of that pressure coming from Washington impact the bilateral that will happen?
09:35Well, absolutely. There's, Maria, as you mentioned, there's, you know, a tremendous pressure on India to
09:39stop buying Russian oil. And, you know, this, we were at one point, Russia was our largest oil supplier. And
09:46that's
09:47taken a, you know, that took a hit, when the sanctions started coming in, well, the US diplomatic
09:53pressure came on India to stop buying, you know, Russian oil, we started diversifying. And then the
09:58Iran, you know, crisis began on the 28th of February, that gave us a respite that allowed us to buy
10:05Russian
10:05oil. But now, it looks like the pressure is back. So that is going to be a lever that Washington
10:11is going to
10:11use against India when it comes to Russia, Maria. You know, there have been all kinds of
10:18allegations on India that, you know, we are indirectly supporting Russia's war machine.
10:23And there are statistics to prove that it's India is actually refining oil and, you know,
10:29supplying it to the rest of the world. We are the world's fourth largest, we have the world's fourth
10:34largest refining capacity, and we are refiners to the world. And we are actually stabilizing the prices
10:39of oil. So that, it should be seen in that light. And, you know, India's oil buys possibly
10:45lesser than that of China. And these two countries account for a bulk…
10:48And Sandeep, has the pressure gone up particularly in the last 24 hours with the crude oil actually
10:55touching 110 dollars per barrel?
10:57Well, the crude oil rising, Maria, that puts a lot of pressure on India's economy. Every dollar,
11:05one dollar that the price of crude increases, it adds something like 1 to 2 billion dollars to our
11:13oil export. That's almost 19,000 crore rupees. You can imagine the impact of that having gone from 60
11:20dollars to over 100 dollars, as you just mentioned. So that's going to be the primary pressure on our
11:26economy. We cannot afford oil going to over 100 dollars a barrel. That has impact on India's economy.
11:32So it's really important that we stabilize oil prices to less than 100, and possibly find a way
11:39to, you know, stabilize this impasse that's on between Iran and the United States. Of course,
11:46Prime Minister has made several, you know, statements calling for peace and an end to infrastructure,
11:52freedom of navigation at sea. All of these things that India needs for its economy to continue
11:57growing the weight is 7.8 percent. That kind of growth is not possible at a time when, you know,
12:02oil is over a hundred dollars a barrel, Maria.
12:05Yes, that's right. And let's go to the place where this venue, should I say, where this bilateral will be
12:13happening, Bharat Mandapam.
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