00:00Joining me on this India First special broadcast is Jayant Krishna, former CEO, ED, NSDC and Prime Minister of Skill
00:07India Mission.
00:08In a moment we'll be joined by Raymond Vickery Jr. Sandeep Unnithan, my colleague also with me on this broadcast.
00:14Jayant Krishna, India imported about $40.8 billion worth of Russian crude in 25-26 and that accounted for almost
00:2230.3% of our crude imports.
00:24So, how serious is that risk if America were to actually use this power?
00:33See, you know, if you look at, you know, this bill, it gives sweeping powers to President Trump.
00:41I think that's very, very clear, right?
00:43And which is very, very unfair because he could misuse it as past has shown us.
00:48You know, even without the sweeping powers, you know, he has misutilized his powers and so on and so forth.
00:55So, I think it's very, very unfortunate.
00:57And, you know, I think what we need to realize is that the cost of this, while India will suffer,
01:03no doubt, you know,
01:04because with 100% tariff, no country can survive, no country can do exports.
01:08But the issue is the average American family would also suffer to an extent of, almost estimates have been made
01:16that almost $3,000 worth of loss,
01:20the average American family would suffer because of high tariffs being imposed.
01:24So, I think, you know, one has to look at it very, very clearly.
01:28And, you know, let's understand 100% is not the absolute number one would levy.
01:33It is up to 100%.
01:34No, but the threat, Sandeep, is that this sword of democracy will keep hanging on your head
01:41and exporters wouldn't know what kind of tariff do they have today, what kind of tariff will they have tomorrow,
01:47how much should they manufacture, how much should they export.
01:51So, this risk is brought in to a very smooth, what should be a very smooth and predictable regime.
01:59Absolutely, Gaurav.
02:00And, you know, the unpredictability that these U.S. tariffs have introduced into this whole equation is what worries us.
02:06You know, just a few days back, we've seen Saudi oil literally collapse, right?
02:11So, that's another big supplier of oil to us.
02:14And now you have Russian oil under threat.
02:16So, where is a country, the world's most populous country, which imports all its energy?
02:21Where are we supposed to get our energy from?
02:23I mean, is this going to be at the whim and the dictates of the United States, which is actually
02:28responsible for our plight, Gaurav.
02:30You know, all of these wars in West Asia in the last few months have been at the insistence of
02:37the United States.
02:38There was no problem at the Strait of Hormuz as of February 28th.
02:42There was no problem at the Babel Mandap before that.
02:45And all of this is something that the United States has to, you know, answer for.
02:50And now you have tariffs being slapped on India of our, you know, by our strategic partner.
02:57Imagine.
02:58On the one hand, we are exercising with them, military exercises with them.
03:01We are buying weapons from them.
03:03And on the other hand, we are receiving the kind of, you know, this kind of treatment.
03:08And, you know, more than that, Gaurav, it is the language that is being used when it comes to India.
03:13And this is the kind of language we have not seen come from Washington in a long, long time.
03:18I mean, this is probably the language of the Cold War or the 1971 India-Pakistan War when the U
03:24.S. was on the side of Pakistan.
03:26So, I think that is what is happening here.
03:28One of our most important economic relationships, our partnerships, which is the India-U.S. relationship, is under threat for
03:36reasons, you know, that are beyond our immediate comprehension, Gaurav.
03:41And not of our making at all.
03:43I want to bring in Raymond Vickrey Jr. joins us on this broadcast.
03:49Mr. Vickrey, welcome.
03:50The U.S. has given President Trump power to impose 100%, up to 100% tariff for importing Russian energy.
04:00You know, with Saudi market going down, with the demand for energy going up, what are countries like India expected
04:08to do?
04:08A complete halt on Russian oil purchases will make prices skyrocket.
04:14Global economy will be in tailspin, sir.
04:18Well, thanks for having me.
04:19It seems to me that this is a crisis situation.
04:25It is significant in two ways.
04:28One, it gives to the president tariff authority, which the Supreme Court said that he did not have because Congress
04:37had not acted previously.
04:40So, in this case, he will seem to be on solid ground.
04:45On the other hand, it is plain that this is not the imposition of 100% tariff.
04:52And there are miles to go before one finds out really what the impact will be.
05:04And as we have seen in the past, President Trump does not have a strategy.
05:10He doesn't have partners.
05:12He doesn't really have principles upon which he's negotiating.
05:16So, it's very, very difficult to see what the outcome will be.
05:21In the past, he's given Putin sort of a free pass.
05:25So, will he use this or not?
05:29That's the question.
05:30And on that question, it seems to me that the message for India is that it is a great democracy
05:39and it needs to behave like a great democracy and provide leadership in these very troubling times.
05:48The U.S. won't decide how India behaves, sir.
05:51You know, we've been a democracy far longer than the United States of America.
05:55And clearly, Jayant Krishna, India does not need lessons from the West on democracy.
06:01But at the same time, you do need access to American markets.
06:05It just seems to be a very, very difficult position for the country to be in.
06:10And if I may, Jayant Krishna, Russia supplied 51.1% of India's crude imports July 2026.
06:18India imports more than 88% of our crude requirements.
06:22Can India afford to reduce Russian oil purchases without significantly increasing the import bill, putting pressure, you know, on our
06:31economy at a time when the Saudi market seems to be going down?
06:36So, Gaurav, I mean, if you look at the last year's data, yes, India did import a lot of crude
06:41oil from Russia.
06:42But, you know, after this 25% plus another penalty of 25% tariff was, you know, there was a
06:49threat that U.S. is going to impose on India.
06:52After that, India had reduced dependence on the crude oil.
06:55And if you look at the data for November, December 25, you know, it was the lowest in the last
07:0338 months, you know, that India imported.
07:06But India had to again go back to Russia for major imports, primarily because of the uncertainty created by, you
07:14know, the Iran war.
07:15And the fact that Iran was not able to supply to India and a lot of countries in that region
07:20were not able to supply crude oil to India.
07:22So, India has to go, I mean, it can't, you know, it's the operations of a country like India with
07:28the most populous country in the world can't come to a grinding halt just because there's a threat of tariff.
07:32We have to keep our, you know, economy moving.
07:37So, I think India had no choice but to import from that places because a lot of sources of crude
07:42oil had disappeared because of the, and it was all a creation of U.S. and Israel.
07:47Unless there is pressure, unless there is pressure that's mounted directly or indirectly.
07:54So, sanctions if you buy from Iran, sanctions if you buy from Russia, Saudi market is down.
08:00Then the pressure would be you either buy from U.S. or you buy from Venezuela.
08:04Of course, we have a diversified basket, Sandeep, from 40 odd countries.
08:08But the pressure automatically would be increased from Russia and from America and Venezuela.
08:14And that would increase costs.
08:16Absolutely, Gaurav.
08:17You know, and you've hit the nail on the head.
08:19Look at the way the oil market has been in the last couple of months.
08:22You know, at the start of this war, this utterly unnecessary war on February 28th, oil prices were at, what,
08:3070 odd barrel?
08:31Today, they are over 100, right?
08:34Right. And every dollar increase in the price of oil means that India pays between $1 to $2 billion extra.
08:42So, who are we to blame for this?
08:43The $30 increase, it's a 50% increase almost in the price of oil in the last couple of months.
08:52We are paying the bill for it, a developing country like ours, which has absolutely no bones with anyone.
08:58We just focused on getting to 2047 Vixit Bharat, a $30 trillion economy.
09:05And these are the kind of minefields that we have to cross, which are not of our own creation.
09:09And a minefield which is not of our creation.
09:11And Raymond Vickery, Jr., if Washington, D.C. wants countries like India to move away from Russian oil or Iran
09:19oil,
09:19what's the alternative, sir, when 88% of our crude energy is imported?
09:25Or is Washington, D.C. underestimating the economic importance of discounted Russian oil for countries or economies like India?
09:34Well, I think that there's no question that the Trump administration is underestimating India.
09:42We have had 30 years of continued upward progress in the relationship.
09:48And he has been a bull in a China shop with these tariffs.
09:53First of all, the so-called Liberation Day tariffs, and then a 25% tariff in regard to Russian oil.
10:01He thinks that tariffs are his weapon of choice, that he can bring people to his way of thinking, whatever
10:12that may be.
10:13It's hard to figure out what that thinking is, but he can do it by tariffs.
10:18And, of course, that's completely inadequate.
10:20In order to be able to wage peace like you wage war, you have to have a strategy, you have
10:29to have partners, and you have to have principles.
10:33And, of course, that's not within his lexicon.
10:36And his approach is one of a real estate transactional approach to it.
10:42Now, that having been said, India has plenty of alternatives to work its way through a situation.
10:53The sky is not falling.
10:55It is the case that before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, India basically imported no oil from Russia.
11:07Very, very little.
11:09It was only because of a price differential that India then turned to Russia.
11:16So, yeah, sure, there are problems with Saudi Arabia.
11:20Sir, with due respect, the Strait of Hormuz was open at that point of time.
11:24The Strait of Hormuz is not open today.
11:27Post-28th of February, and that's U.S. actions there, it's changed the game,
11:32even for countries like India, adversely impacting us, Jayant Krishna, isn't it?
11:39Sorry, Gaurav?
11:41You know, the Strait of Hormuz was open before 28th of February.
11:45So, when India wasn't buying discounted Russian oil before,
11:49now we are compelled to, because you can't buy it from Iran,
11:52the Strait of Hormuz is closed, so you can't get it from Saudi Arabia,
11:55you can't get it from Kuwait, you can't get it from Oman,
11:57you can't get it from, you know, Qatar.
12:00The situation is very precarious.
12:01Yes. So, absolutely, Gaurav, you know, India has a Hobson's choice, you know,
12:05I mean, and the fact is, while the price at which we are importing now from Russia has gone up,
12:10it's not as low as it used to be a year ago.
12:13But the fact is, it is still lower than the price which would, you know,
12:16suppose we start importing from U.S. or Venezuela, right?
12:19I think they can't match the price which Russia is giving.
12:23You know, so I think, you know, these are the economic decisions
12:26every country should have the liberty to take its own, in its own national interest.
12:30And, you know, it is very surprising that, you know,
12:34this bill has been passed with 262 members voting for it and only 159 opposing it, you know.
12:41I think it's very, very surprising.
12:42I think, you know, they need to be educated,
12:45they need to be told the rationale that why India is buying from there.
12:49It has very few sources left.
12:50And it should be free, you know, to do whatever it wants to do.
12:55In fact, Sandeep, this may adversely impact even the trade agreement between India and the United States of America
13:02because we would want to see what tariffs are being imposed on different countries
13:06and we would want to ensure that we have a better deal compared to our peers before signing the dotted
13:13line.
13:13Absolutely, Gaurav.
13:15And, you know, this is possibly, you know, a compelling tool that the United States is using against us
13:20because Commerce Minister Piyush Gowell travels to Washington for negotiating that India-U.S. trade agreement.
13:29And this is possibly one of those coercion tactics to, you know, get him to agree to,
13:35get us to agree to an unequal trade deal.
13:39And if you've noticed, Gaurav, the tone of the government's response today was a little different from what it was
13:44in the past
13:45where the government has mentioned, the government of India has mentioned that this could impact the India-U.S. relationship.
13:51And there has been a certain hardening of stance on our part as well.
13:56We are looking for other markets, you know.
14:00It truly is a diplomatic tightrope walk.
14:02Raymond Vickley Jr., Jayankrishna and Sandeep, many thanks for joining me.
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