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20 October - national forecast presented by Aidan McGivern

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00:00Hi there, plenty to talk about for the next few days and that's before we even get into
00:04Storm Austin which arrives during Thursday night into the start of Friday.
00:09For the time being, a slow-moving weather front pushes rain into northern England.
00:13Much of Scotland overnight, it slowly edges northeast.
00:16The next weather front arrives in the west, bringing some wet weather to Northern Ireland,
00:20Wales, the south and southwest.
00:22In between, some gaps in these systems, some clear skies overnight,
00:27temperatures typically getting down into the high single figures or low double figures.
00:32Wherever you are, it's a dreary start to the day.
00:35A lot of clouds, some outbreaks of rain and an increasing wind for some of us.
00:40You can see on this wind gust graphic where the coloured areas are where wind gusts are exceeding 50 miles
00:46an hour.
00:46The winds start to increase behind this warm front which is edging its way northeastwards
00:53and there's a developing circulation where the warm front and the cold front meet.
00:58And that's where we're going to see some heavy rain at times through Wales into the Midlands,
01:02slowly pushing eastwards across England and Wales.
01:05The first weather front continues across the north and northeast of Scotland.
01:09A damp day to come here.
01:11Showers following into western Scotland, west Wales, southwest England and northern Ireland.
01:15Winds picking up especially towards southwest Wales and southwest England with coastal gales likely
01:21and wind gusts around exposed coasts of 50 miles per hour or perhaps more.
01:26You can see where the wettest weather is by the afternoon though.
01:30Central and then eventually eastern parts of England.
01:33Welcome rain for many of course because it is needed.
01:36Temperatures though not feeling particularly pleasant under the rain, under the wind.
01:4111 to 13 Celsius typically.
01:43A marked contrast compared with recent very mild weather.
01:46We end the day with rain clearing eastern England albeit slowly and then clear skies follow only for a short
01:53time
01:53before the next system brings some heavy and at times prolonged showery rain through.
01:58Thundery downpours towards the southwest again with gusty winds.
02:02But lighter winds will prevail further north.
02:05Clear spells interspersed by a few showers.
02:07And as a result temperatures falling a little further compared with the previous night.
02:11Low single figures, a touch of frost possible in sheltered parts of northern England and Scotland.
02:17So a colder start to the day on Thursday for sun.
02:20A showery start for many across England and Wales, western and northern Scotland.
02:24Some more persistent rain only slowly clearing from Shetland.
02:27And then a brighter interlude for Thursday afternoon.
02:31You can see fairly widespread sunny skies away from the southwest.
02:35And lighter winds for a time.
02:39Temperatures responding reasonably well.
02:41Still a relatively cool airflow.
02:44So 12 or 13 Celsius.
02:46Milder towards the south and southwest.
02:48But here we've got the cloud building.
02:50We've got the next system pushing rain into the southwest.
02:53And eventually parts of Pembrokeshire.
02:56The wind's picking up.
02:57And this is all ahead of Storm Austin.
02:59Now at the time of recording, Storm Austin barely exists.
03:03It's not this low.
03:05It's actually a low that spawned from this low.
03:08Watch this area carefully.
03:11And during Tuesday night into the start of Wednesday, it separates from the first low.
03:16It gets picked up by the jet stream.
03:18So far, a shallow feature through Wednesday.
03:21But as it moves on to the cold side of the jet stream, that's when it rapidly spins up.
03:24This very rapidly deepening area of low pressure then approaches the southwest of the UK.
03:30And reasonably high confidence that it will bring a spell of strong winds, if not gales, to the south and
03:36southwest during Thursday night into the start of Friday.
03:39Along with, ahead of it, some very heavy rainfall.
03:42Here are the wind gusts that we're likely to see through Friday morning.
03:47We're likely to see widely 50-mile-per-hour wind gusts developing across the south and southwest.
03:53And around exposed coasts, 60-70-mile-per-hour wind gusts.
03:57In some of the most exposed spots during the early hours of Friday, you wouldn't rule out something a little
04:02higher than 70-mile-per-hour wind gusts.
04:04But, yeah, these kinds of winds, of course, with trees in full leaf still.
04:08And first storm of the season is likely to cause some impacts across the south and southwest of the UK.
04:15Yellow warning in force.
04:17And worth paying attention to all the latest updates.
04:20Alex Berkel has a much more comprehensive overview of what we can expect from storm Austin.
04:25And that can be found on the Met Office YouTube channel.
04:28Bye-bye.

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