00:00Syria is weak. Far too weak.
00:01They are suffering devastating defeats against the Houthi rebels.
00:03And now they are even facing the humiliation of having an F-15 fighter jet shot down.
00:07Now they are seen begging neighbouring countries for help.
00:09Today, let's take a proper look at this story. Let's get right into it.
00:11But before that, if you want the fastest international news updates in the country,
00:14please be sure to visit SDH News. Quick games, please.
00:16The Houthi rebels claimed to have shot down a Saudi Arabian F-15 fighter jet in Marib province, Yemen.
00:21In the video they released, the Houthi rebels not even wearing military uniforms,
00:24armed only with rifles and wearing sandals,
00:25were seen taking commemorative videos at the tail of the downed F-15 fighter jet.
00:29They were captured on camera.
00:30At the same time, the Houthi rebels stated that Saudi F-15 and Typhoon fighter jets
00:34carried out over 450 airstrikes across seven Yemeni provinces over the past week,
00:37resulting in civilian casualties.
00:39They also stressed that they will continue to mobilise all available means
00:42to counter violations of Yemen's sovereignty and territorial integrity.
00:45The Houthi rebels explained that they shot down this F-15 fighter jet
00:48with their own domestically developed air defence missile.
00:50Since Saudi Arabia does not have stealth fighters yet,
00:52having their F-15 fighter jets shot down so helplessly
00:55leaves them unable to properly utilise their air power,
00:57which is one of the few strengths they could boast about.
00:59Even though they aren't a proper military force,
01:01the fact that an F-15 fighter jet was shot down is causing a huge shock, isn't it?
01:05Saudi Arabia is really fighting terribly.
01:07Whenever an engagement breaks out,
01:08the Saudi troops keep abandoning their guns and equipment and running away.
01:12Because of this, even during the Houthi rebels' recent MOCA offensive,
01:15the Saudi forces abandoned their weapons and gear as they fled,
01:18and the Houthi rebels were even seen looting and using that equipment.
01:21Things were so bad that people said Iran was the top supporter of the Houthi rebels,
01:24and the second largest supporter was Saudi Arabia.
01:27To the point of being mocked like that,
01:28currently the civil war in Yemen is turning in favour of the Houthi rebels.
01:31In order to reverse the tide of this war,
01:32Saudi Arabia is using its formidable air power and missile capabilities
01:35to unleash them against the Houthi rebels.
01:37This time, circumstances have emerged suggesting that Saudi Arabia
01:40used Chinese-made ballistic missiles in actual combat for the first time.
01:43Up until now,
01:43Saudi Arabia had not publicly disclosed its Chinese-made short-range ballistic missile capabilities,
01:47so it seems they made their combat debut.
01:49The Saudi military is presumed to have launched a Dongfeng-15A missile at the Houthi rebels,
01:52and its upgraded variant has a maximum range of about 900 kilometers,
01:56making it a formidable missile.
01:57It can be launched rapidly and offers the advantage of striking fixed targets deep inside Yemen
02:01without requiring pilots to penetrate enemy air defense networks.
02:04Judging by the fact that they are even using hidden missiles,
02:07it appears they are trying to turn around the rapidly deteriorating situation in Yemen.
02:10The frontline situation is currently so bad that parts of Yemen's western coast,
02:13which borders the Red Sea,
02:14have already fallen to the Houthi rebels.
02:16In effect, control over the Babel-Mandeb Strait has been seized by the Houthi rebels.
02:19Furthermore, having succeeded in capturing islands in the Red Sea,
02:22the Houthis appear to be consolidating their control over the area.
02:25The problem, however, is that this is absolutely devastating for Saudi Arabia.
02:29When the Strait of Hormuz was previously blocked,
02:31Saudi Arabia transported crude oil westward through the east-west pipeline
02:34to resume its oil exports via the Red Sea.
02:36However, if the Red Sea is blocked as well,
02:38the only route left for Saudi Arabia to export crude oil is the Mediterranean.
02:41That means a massive economic blow for the Saudis.
02:43On top of that,
02:44since the Houthis have even launched attacks on Saudi Arabia's energy facilities,
02:47significant damage has been inflicted.
02:49Even the east-west pipeline was attacked by pro-Iranian militias,
02:52rendering it unusable for up to five weeks.
02:54With two pumping stations connecting the east-west pipeline coming under attack,
02:57the restoration timeline remains uncertain.
02:58The oil pipeline here stretches 1,200 kilometers in length
03:01and can transport up to 7 million barrels of crude oil per Dalton,
03:04but that route has now been cut off.
03:05On top of that,
03:06Saudi Arabia's stockpiles of interceptor missiles
03:08are reportedly depleting at a rapid pace.
03:09According to the AP,
03:10with Saudi Arabia facing repeated strikes from Houthi missiles and drone attacks,
03:14the strain on its interception systems has grown,
03:16leading them to turn to France, the UK, Pakistan, and Egypt to request air defense support.
03:20Another major issue is that there isn't just one or two facilities
03:22Saudi Arabia needs to defend.
03:23Beyond military bases and government facilities,
03:25there are oil refineries, crude storage sites, pipelines,
03:27and even power grids that require air defense coverage.
03:30If attacks by the Houthis and pro-Iranian forces expand across multiple regions,
03:33Saudi Arabia will be forced to continually burn
03:35through its limited interceptor missiles,
03:37which will inevitably accelerate the depletion of its air defense capability.
03:39An even bigger issue is that the United States,
03:41the country Saudi Arabia has relied on the most,
03:43is also in a difficult position to provide enough interceptor missiles.
03:45According to the AP,
03:46the US is also facing a strain on its interceptor missile stockpiles
03:49as the war with Iran drags on,
03:50and shortages have also been reported in the US air defense assets deployed to Europe.
03:53That is why the US is currently moving toward providing intelligence sharing
03:56and operational planning support
03:57rather than direct large-scale military intervention in Saudi Arabia.
04:00While Saudi Arabia needs American intelligence and support,
04:03when it comes to actually securing additional air defense capabilities,
04:05it has found itself needing the help of other nations.
04:07Reports have surfaced that Saudi Arabia requests
04:09the deployment of air defense assets from France,
04:11the UK, Pakistan, and Egypt,
04:13but so far, none of these countries have been confirmed
04:15to officially promise the deployment of actual forces.
04:17The UK stated that it maintains a close defense cooperation relationship with Saudi Arabia,
04:21but regarding whether it received a specific request for support from Saudi Arabia,
04:24they did not confirm.
04:25Pakistan also stated that it received no request for support from Saudi Arabia
04:28regarding the Houthi offensive.
04:30In this situation, Saudi Arabia faces a very difficult choice.
04:32To keep its air defense network running,
04:34they need to secure additional interceptor missiles
04:36and bring in military power from abroad for this.
04:38However, if neighboring countries engage in direct military intervention,
04:40it could heighten the risk of a clash not only with the Houthis,
04:42but also with Iran,
04:43making it difficult for any nation to...
04:45Make a move easily!
04:46It is also worth noting that countries like Oman and Egypt
04:48are currently engaging in diplomatic outreach to ease tensions.
04:51This is why Saudi Arabia is keeping the door open for both military responses
04:54and a potential diplomatic resolution.
04:56That is because relying solely on continuously deploying air defense assets
04:59makes it difficult to withstand the depletion of resources
05:01if missile and drone attacks persist.
05:03The core issue facing Saudi Arabia right now is shifting
05:05from whether they have the ability to fend off attacks
05:07to how long they can sustain this defensive battle.
05:09If they have sufficient stockpiles of interceptor missiles,
05:11they could continue to block the attacks.
05:13But if their stockpiles deplete and external resupply is delayed,
05:16Saudi Arabia's air defense burden will inevitably grow heavier.
05:18The options Saudi Arabia can take are quite limited at this point.
05:21The Eurasia Group told the Financial Times
05:23that Saudi Arabia is trapped in a policy dilemma.
05:25They can't simply accept the Houthi rebels' demands
05:27just because of military pressure, but...
05:28Stepping up their military response is also burdensome.
05:31In particular, if the conflict escalates further,
05:33Aramco's crude oil production, which is Saudi Arabia's core industry,
05:36could suffer significant damage, according to an analysis.
05:39The Eurasia Group even mentioned the worst-case scenario
05:41where Aramco could potentially lose half of its crude oil production.
05:44For Saudi Arabia, the more aggressively they respond militarily,
05:46the greater the risk that their key economic facilities will come under attack.
05:49The biggest problem is that it is not easy for Saudi Arabia
05:52to break the Houthi rebels' offensive on its own,
05:54as the Houthis are currently expanding their influence
05:56around the Babel Mandev Strait.
05:57If they want to regain control of the islands and ports in this region,
06:00air warfare alone has its limits,
06:02and they even have to consider deploying ground troops.
06:03However, the Saudi army has limited experience
06:05in conducting large-scale ground wars over a prolonged period.
06:08If they deploy ground troops,
06:09and the tide of war turns out differently than expected,
06:11Saudi forces could suffer heavy casualties,
06:13and the possibility of the frontline expanding
06:14toward the Saudi border cannot be ruled out.
06:16Therefore, for Saudi Arabia,
06:17simply intensifying the offensive could end up creating yet another set of risks.
06:20In this situation,
06:21the possibility of Israel and Egypt supporting Saudi Arabia is also being raised.
06:24If the Houthi rebels' control over the Red Sea grows,
06:27Israel's maritime traffic and security through the Red Sea would also be affected.
06:30Egypt is also facing a serious situation,
06:32as instability along the Red Sea shipping route becomes prolonged.
06:35Vessels may hesitate to use the Suez Canal,
06:37which threatens Egypt's vital
06:38source of foreign currency revenue,
06:40the Suez Canal transit fees,
06:42because Suez Canal tolls account for a significant portion of Egypt's economy.
06:46Military tensions in the Red Sea directly translate into economic problems for Egypt.
06:50Against this backdrop,
06:51Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman visited Egypt
06:53to discuss cooperative measures to preserve freedom of navigation in the Red Sea.
06:56This explains why both Saudi Arabia and Egypt
06:58have no choice but to find the prolonged instability in the Red Sea deeply burdensome.
07:02However, there is an even more serious problem here.
07:04The local government forces and pro-government militias
07:06that Saudi Arabia had relied on in Yemen
07:07could not withstand the Houthi rebel offensive
07:09and began collapsing themselves.
07:11Recently, as the Houthi rebels rapidly advanced along the Red Sea coast,
07:14the Yemeni government forces, supported and trained by Saudi Arabia,
07:17were pushed back from key strategic areas,
07:19and some troops reportedly fled the combat zone.
07:22The problem is that Saudi Arabia does not directly control all the front lines in Yemen.
07:26Until now, Saudi Arabia maintained its influence
07:28by backing the local government troops and various armed militias,
07:30having them fight the Houthi rebels directly.
07:32But if these local forces collapse,
07:33Saudi Arabia's influence will inevitably weaken along with them.
07:36In particular, it is pointed out as a problem
07:38that various pro-government forces have different chains of command and conflicting interests.
07:42In a situation where they must face a single unified force, the Houthi rebels,
07:45the opposing forces fail to cooperate properly,
07:47making it difficult to maintain stability across the entire front line,
07:50even if they have enough troops and weapons.
07:52In fact, in recent offensives, government forces failed to defend key areas and retreated,
07:56allowing the Houthi rebels to seize significant territory in a short period.
07:59Because of this, if Saudi Arabia wants to regain influence in Yemen,
08:02simply ramping up the frequency of offensives may not be enough.
08:04On the ground, they need actual ground forces capable of defending territory and halting the Houthi advance.
08:08But the very forces supposed to play that role are collapsing,
08:11which poses a tremendous burden on Saudi Arabia.
08:13If Saudi Arabia were to deploy more of its own troops directly,
08:16its military burden and responsibility for the war would only grow.
08:19Conversely, if they continue relying on local forces,
08:21they might not be able to stop further offensives by the Houthi rebels.
08:24The difficulty Saudi Arabia is currently facing in Yemen
08:26isn't just a matter of equipment like fighter jets or missiles,
08:28but is compounded by the collapse of allied forces capable of actually fighting on the ground.
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