- 9 minutes ago
This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next 10 days, issued on 30/09/2026.
A powerful Atlantic jet stream, energised in part by the remnants of former hurricanes over North America, will continue to drive deep areas of low pressure across the North Atlantic. However, rather than tracking directly across the UK, many of these storms are expected to pass to the north of Scotland as high pressure frequently builds across southern Britain.
That means a classic north-south split through much of the period. Northern parts of the UK can expect spells of wind and rain at times, while southern areas are likely to see longer dry spells, some sunshine, overnight mist and fog patches, and temperatures often remaining above average for early October.
In this 10 Day Trend, Met Office meteorologist Aidan McGivern explains how the jet stream is evolving, why Atlantic storms are swerving the UK, and what it means for rainfall, temperatures and autumn weather prospects through the first week of October.
You may also enjoy:
– Deep dive in-depth forecasts https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLGVVqeJodR_ZGnhyYdlEpdYrjZ-Pmj2rt
– Podcasts exploring weather and climate https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLGVVqeJodR_brL5mcfsqI4cu42ueHttv0
– Daily weather forecasts https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLGVVqeJodR_Zew9xGAqYVtGjYHau-E2yL
A powerful Atlantic jet stream, energised in part by the remnants of former hurricanes over North America, will continue to drive deep areas of low pressure across the North Atlantic. However, rather than tracking directly across the UK, many of these storms are expected to pass to the north of Scotland as high pressure frequently builds across southern Britain.
That means a classic north-south split through much of the period. Northern parts of the UK can expect spells of wind and rain at times, while southern areas are likely to see longer dry spells, some sunshine, overnight mist and fog patches, and temperatures often remaining above average for early October.
In this 10 Day Trend, Met Office meteorologist Aidan McGivern explains how the jet stream is evolving, why Atlantic storms are swerving the UK, and what it means for rainfall, temperatures and autumn weather prospects through the first week of October.
You may also enjoy:
– Deep dive in-depth forecasts https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLGVVqeJodR_ZGnhyYdlEpdYrjZ-Pmj2rt
– Podcasts exploring weather and climate https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLGVVqeJodR_brL5mcfsqI4cu42ueHttv0
– Daily weather forecasts https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLGVVqeJodR_Zew9xGAqYVtGjYHau-E2yL
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NewsTranscript
00:00Hello and welcome to the Met Office 10-day trend.
00:03Although some parts of the UK on Tuesday felt like summer with temperatures of 28 Celsius
00:09in Kew Gardens, followed by 19.9 Celsius overnight into the start of Wednesday, remarkable daytime
00:17and overnight temperatures for the time of year.
00:20Not everywhere experienced warm summer-like conditions.
00:24There was some autumnal weather out there, certainly strong winds for Northern Ireland,
00:28and some wet weather moving through overnight, all because of this area of low pressure.
00:33So whilst it might have felt like summer in the southeast, the pressure chart looks more
00:38like autumn with this deep low to the west of the UK.
00:41Thankfully, the strongest of the winds from this low are swerving away from the UK, heading
00:47during the next 24 hours further north into Iceland and beyond.
00:51And that's the theme of the next week or more.
00:54There will be some deep areas of low pressure forming in the Atlantic, a powerful jet stream
00:59and so on.
01:00But generally, they're going to swerve away from the UK rather than directly impact the
01:06UK.
01:06Having said that, there's still plenty of weather to talk about during the next few days.
01:11And certainly on Thursday, we've got some showers out there for western parts of the UK,
01:15drier towards the east, sunny spells for many actually, and fewer showers in the west compared
01:20with Wednesday, they'll tend to ease later temperatures around the high teens, low twenties.
01:26Now, through Thursday night, we're going to see spells of rain pep up across western Scotland,
01:30Northern Ireland, western parts of Northern England, as well as Wales, and these rain bands
01:35coming through, persistent at times accompanied by a freshening breeze.
01:39To the southeast, lighter winds and clearer skies leading to a cool, if not chilly start across
01:45some central and southeastern parts of England first thing Friday.
01:49But that's where we've got the driest and brightest weather throughout Friday.
01:52We keep with the sunny spells throughout much of the day.
01:55Cloudier further north and west, one or two showers for Wales, but the liveliest weather
01:59will be for Northern England, much of Scotland and Northern Ireland, especially towards the
02:03northwest where a number of weather fronts will move in, bringing some heavy and at times
02:08persistent spells of rain, and some lively showers or thunderstorms, hail and gusty winds mixed in
02:16as well.
02:16All of that will make it feel cool in the northwest, rather autumnal.
02:20Further southeast, well, not too unpleasant, although we do need the rain, of course.
02:25Sunny spells, low twenties.
02:27Fast forward to Saturday, and there's, according to the Met Office model, a blossoming area of
02:33rain into parts of Wales, and then North Midlands into Northern England, perhaps edging into
02:37southern Scotland, Northern Ireland at times.
02:40This is a stalling weather front, which the Met Office model really intensifies during Saturday
02:48to bring an especially wet day for some parts of the UK.
02:51To the south of it, drier with sunny spells.
02:53To the north, some showers for Northern Scotland, cool in the north, a little bit warmer further
02:59south.
03:00However, I wouldn't take this particular model run at face value.
03:05That's because there are some significant differences when it comes to the rain on Saturday, depending
03:12on which computer model run you look at.
03:15Now, this is the Met Office model run, bright colours here, indicating some especially wet
03:20weather for North Wales into parts of Northern England, Southern Scotland, Northern Ireland.
03:24Dryer to the south, showers for Northern Scotland.
03:27This is the European run.
03:28It has the rain a bit further south and not as intense, not as many bright colours, more
03:34showery spells of rain easing later.
03:36The American model has barely a drop of rain.
03:40And to see further differences, you can drill down into each of these models and the fact
03:45that they are run not just once, but dozens of times.
03:49And you can look at the frontal placement from each of those simulations.
03:54Now, this is the Met Office model and its various ensemble runs.
03:59It's dozens of simulations.
04:01And this is Saturday lunchtime where all these different runs place the weather front.
04:08Each of these lines is a weather front.
04:10These are called spaghetti charts for obvious reasons.
04:12Here's the UK.
04:13There's Scotland.
04:14There's southern England.
04:15And you can see the distribution of weather fronts covers much of the country.
04:20Tremendous amount of uncertainty about the placement of that particular band of rain.
04:24Less uncertainty when you look at the European model.
04:27The weather fronts mostly clear of Scotland, Northern Ireland, Northern England,
04:31more clustered across central and southwestern parts of England and Wales.
04:36And when you look at even further models elsewhere and different model runs through time,
04:42more of them show this kind of model frontal placement.
04:48And more of them show the front giving showery outbreaks of rain rather than persistent and
04:54heavy outbreaks of rain as seen in the Met Office model.
04:57In fact, the Met Office model and how wet it is, is only replicated by 30% of its own
05:05ensemble members.
05:06So we think it's more likely that the front will bring rain further south into the Midlands,
05:13southwest England, Wales, parts of northern England, and more showery rain easing later
05:18rather than a particularly wet day with the rain focused further north.
05:22This is most likely, but this can't be discounted, of course, because it is showing up in some simulations.
05:28Why is there such variation?
05:30Well, we have to look back at a chain of events that takes place before the rain impacts parts
05:37of the UK on Saturday itself.
05:39Now, just to remind you, this is what the Met Office model is suggesting on Saturday afternoon,
05:43heavy rain through northern England, parts of north Wales, etc.
05:46And when you put on the isobars from that model, you can see this kink, this lower pressure.
05:53And that subtle kink in the isobars is causing an intensification of the weather front that is
06:00straddling central parts of the UK. In other words, lower pressure at the surface causes more rising
06:05air, causes more rain. But when you put on the isobars from the European model, remember that had
06:11the rain further south and less heavy, less prolonged. There isn't that kink. In fact, there's a bit of a
06:17ridge in the isobars. Higher pressure. And just to make that clear, here's the difference between
06:25the two models. And the blue zone here indicates where the Met Office model has much lower pressure
06:31than the European model. Why does the Met Office model have much lower pressure? Well, we need to look
06:36higher up in the atmosphere and the placement of these winds at the height of the jet stream.
06:42And equally, they are showing a kink. In other words, the jet stream is dipping south across
06:47the UK lunchtime Saturday. And we've got this upper trough that leaves a vacuum in the air,
06:52high up at the level of the jet stream, which causes the air at the surface to rush up to
06:56fill
06:57it, which causes lower pressure at the surface and an intensification of the rain across central
07:01parts of the UK. Why is the Met Office showing more of this kink, more of this sharpening upper
07:08trough compared to the European model? We have to go back 24 hours previously, follow it back across
07:13the Atlantic, and you find the opposite happening on the other side of the Atlantic. A ridge in these
07:18upper level winds, higher pressure bulging north because of a strengthening of the jet stream coming
07:25out of Canada. That causes this higher pressure coming out of the Atlantic where the jet stream lives.
07:32And that has a ripple effect downstream, causing it to sharpen close to the UK, causing this upper
07:39trough to form. In other words, the whole thing is becoming more amplified in the Met Office model
07:44compared to the European model. We've got it going up and then going down, just like as if you were
07:50to
07:50crack a whip. You get this ripple effect. Why do you get more amplification from the Met Office model?
07:56You have to go further back than that, all the way back to Thursday, and you can see how we
08:01go
08:02on to Saturday with that sharpening upper trough. But if we go all the way back to Thursday and find
08:08the origins of those perturbations in the jet stream, it all comes from this system across central parts
08:16of the USA, which is actually the remnants of ex-hurricane Polo. In other words, this is an area of
08:24intense
08:24rain and thunderstorms. Tropical rainfall, that's where the origins are, the tropics.
08:31Rainful with tropical origins, so a lot of moisture, a lot of energy being pushed north in this part of
08:39the world, which then ultimately injects a load of energy into the jet stream leaving Canada. And I went
08:46into the mechanisms behind this in the deep dive on Tuesday. You can find that on the YouTube channel.
08:50But ultimately, we've got strengthening winds coming out of Canada there in the jet stream.
08:55That causes an amplification of the jet stream over the Atlantic. It pushes north here, dips south
09:03over the UK. The effect is more amplified in the Met Office model compared with the other models because
09:09of really quite small differences to do with how those heavy rains and thunderstorms are affecting the
09:17jet stream over North America during the next 24 hours. Really subtle differences at the start,
09:23big differences by the time we get to Saturday in terms of the UK's rainfall. But either way,
09:32that rain does clear later Saturday and into Sunday. And ultimately, that more ridged jet stream
09:39comes close to the UK, allowing for higher pressure to develop from the south into Sunday. And Sunday's
09:46a much quieter day. We've got more confidence about the weather on Sunday than we do about Saturday.
09:51It's one of those situations where you don't always lose the same amount of confidence each day. And
09:56the forecast is quite clear what's going to happen on Sunday. Outbreaks of showery rain into the far north
10:01of Scotland. A few showers elsewhere, a lot of cloud, but with higher pressure. Mostly it's dry. On the cool
10:07side,
10:08high teens, low 20s, but not far from average for the time of year. Then, zooming out again to look
10:16at
10:16the bigger picture for the start of next week, another deep low comes along because of that strong branch
10:22of the jet stream coming out of North America, which has become more energized courtesy of Hurricane Polo.
10:28But either way, with that low pressure coming into Iceland and staying to the north of the UK,
10:36what we mostly experience is this heavy band of rain and gusty winds across Scotland and Northern
10:42Ireland on Monday, drier further south. And despite those differences I mentioned with Hurricane Polo and
10:48the ex-Hurricane, how it affects the jet stream, actually, when you compare the Met Office model on
10:54Monday. For the European model, there's not much difference. Deep low to the north, leaving Iceland,
10:59high pressure to the west for both of them. Now, running this forward through next week,
11:04this is the European control model. You can see high pressure then builds in the wake of that
11:09weather front as it clears southwards on Monday, Tuesday, settling things down for a couple of days.
11:15Then running forwards again, another deep low heads into Iceland, but once again, swerves away from the UK,
11:21more mixed in the north, drier towards the west and southwest. So, there's a prevailing theme
11:27through next week, which is that we will see some deep lows at times, but they'll mostly stay well to
11:34the north of the UK, bringing some mixed weather, bringing some rain and wind at times to northern
11:38parts of the country, keeping things mostly dry further south. And just to confirm it, we don't just
11:43run one model. Like I say, we've got dozens and dozens of models, and this is the most likely weather
11:48pattern when you look at all those different model runs. And it shows westerlies on Tuesday,
11:53the 6th of October, the wettest weather there across western Scotland, mostly dry to the south
11:59and southeast. And the same again, we've got the most likely model run from all those dozen
12:05simulations for Wednesday, the 7th of October. And it's got higher pressure to the west and southwest,
12:11more of a northwesterly airflow. So, temperatures around average, showers into the north and west
12:17of Scotland, drier elsewhere. In fact, when you look at the top three most likely model run
12:22weather patterns, I should say, for next Thursday, we've got higher pressure becoming increasingly
12:27dominant, keeping these blue areas predominantly away from the UK. Or where they do occur, these blue
12:33areas indicating rain, they're mostly the north and west of Scotland, drier elsewhere through Wednesday
12:39into Thursday and perhaps Friday. Although Friday brings something a little bit more changeable
12:43once again, high pressure slips once more to the south with these most likely weather patterns.
12:49And we get the more changeable blustery, rainy weather once again, focused towards the north
12:54and northwest of the UK. So, the theme through next week, no matter what day you look at, is that
13:01we'll have deep areas of low pressure pushing well to the north of the UK. An active jet stream,
13:06yes, but not directly affecting the UK. Although it will always be more changeable towards the north
13:12compared with the south. Temperatures not far from average and mostly dry in the south with
13:19showery rain in the north and northwest. We'll keep you updated on the day-to-day detail,
13:22of course, through our YouTube channel. But for now, that's all for me. Bye-bye.